Nvidia’s latest numbers are phenomenal, but the sustainability of the rally now depends more on sentiment and AI capex cycles than on near‑term fundamentals, which still look very strong.[1][2][3]

## What the results say

- Q4 revenue grew about 73% YoY to roughly 68 billion dollars, driven overwhelmingly by data center demand for Blackwell GPUs and networking.[2][1]

- GAAP gross margin hit about 75%, a record level for this cycle, helped by a richer product mix and lower inventory provisions.[1][2]

- Q1 guidance points to another quarter of very strong revenue with non‑GAAP gross margin guided around 75% again, implying the AI infra build‑out is still in full swing.[4][2]

## AI capex backdrop

- The big hyperscalers are expected to spend over 600 billion dollars on capex in 2026, with roughly three‑quarters tied directly to AI infrastructure.[3]

- Nvidia is estimated to control around 90%+ of AI accelerator spend, making it the primary beneficiary of that capex wave.[5][3]

## Valuation and risk‑reward

- Despite the run, Nvidia’s forward P/E is in the high‑20s range, which is rich versus the market but not extreme given its profit growth profile.[6][5]

- Key risks: any sign of hyperscaler capex slowing, competitive pressure from custom ASICs/other GPU vendors, or margin compression from pricing could hit the multiple hard even if earnings stay high.[3][5]

## My trading / investing take

- For traders: after such a huge beat and guide, upside in the short term depends on whether positioning was crowded long going into earnings; sharp post‑earnings swings both ways are likely as the market digests guidance and AI‑capex headlines.[7][2]

- For investors: as long as AI capex remains elevated and Nvidia keeps its dominant share, the structural story is intact, so dips caused by cyclical capex fears rather than a real breakdown in earnings power look buyable on a multi‑year view.[5][3]

Sources

[1] NVIDIA Q4 FY26 slides: record $68B revenue on Blackwell strength https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/nvidia-q4-fy26-slides-record-68b-revenue-on-blackwell-strength-93CH-4526251

[2] NVIDIA's Q4 Revenue Up 73%; Q1 Guidance “Explosive” and a New ... https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/30443

[3] Hyperscaler CapEx Hits $600B in 2026 | Introl Blog https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026

[4] Nvidia earnings recap: Stock rises on big beat, Jensen Huang talks OpenAI, space data centers, and more https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-q4-earnings-live-updates-ai-chips-rubin-jensen-huang-2026-2

[5] Nvidia's Exponential Runway: Assessing the AI Infrastructure S ... https://www.ainvest.com/news/nvidia-exponential-runway-assessing-ai-infrastructure-curve-2026-2602/

[6] NVDA PE Ratio & Valuation, Is NVDA Overvalued - Intellectia AI https://intellectia.ai/stock/NVDA/valuation

[7] Nvidia's stock rises after $78 billion earnings forecast https://qz.com/nvidia-earnings-q4-2026-ai-boom-jensen-huang-blackwell

[8] IMG_4873.jpeg https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/images/31222344/b4bbbef1-d0b3-4097-a423-baeecc35f57c/IMG_4873.jpeg?AWSAccessKeyId=ASIA2F3EMEYEWQQFOUEK&Signature=8i4t7yBH3cyUZiRa0I8elvLIRBM%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEFEaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJHMEUCIHHAALaj8cGtLsL44ChE%2F2J3OTSzNHxmnsLgtHgmA85zAiEA8bvIC4B0dHTOEKKgE5nft%2FsfYKlTGjuQ2FJdSQ2HY2Qq8wQIGhABGgw2OTk3NTMzMDk3MDUiDDf9LCRR24gaIHmCBirQBBI8EoHo1kb2r1gcxUFO1%2FdCG5Cz%2FL%2Fu%2Fb7XH3E0dyFifn8bg14TQiwXWW7QGibkQZX14qQToBS70%2FFEc1%2BvhUFXCSq5DS9xDzsvhv7xlx9qdldTfNnlSqOncPF86g%2FuSqg4gFjtQLq0su4Yckm8Ya7JhUbrng1Fqyyl85TQD2xcbObQkXHuBDTwfG%2FvK6gOnwLs4bpvAc5c6D9iS0ZvEww02j5XxD385BSSei5nuzHixxKibItTigeUpg25GIKssDD7Mm%2B6HwFbidKaTnEelzM7V5P%2BNiIzTaghEnMG%2FOIkaqmPW%2Fw9FuEo7%2BFFBFChSGIIkZlJERvXde7u%2F3IeQ7tbjaMNpVxkgtoQXtkXolrMLXBSnN04Cn7rLtDo28TFitWIScekLl6VQaRYzPHxoAg837dthLZi5yXUHzdGumoUE16z2Nxe%2B8w2pZtFuw%2FlfzyTWwjJec7E9%2Fy64rzu4lle%2FoPs6lQ6SHE%2Bl5TYAyAgkyCdz%2F6i7mRLMh1faAjWLcTnjL%2FbXH2YmF8of6g4tLqfI69Xon22KCPn2rRSucFqz%2BjKC7vxjMz6Wmm7APIphnZ3JaiLVyMm8Ps74rolSCMyYzISWezoqNG4xTLSIFwCD%2FwZIR7k1ilGc2kC%2BjA%2BH4ZfNYpDy5HZGarbV1J5eIryMJrt4gn%2BjmTQvKV0TPvMJuejOnoCF%2B3kb2vczHYmhzYXrur9RKvf4LZICqC6IJJH9CjdM4JZhExjq4xBWjYB1%2BV%2Bn99n52gy9drwDMejzDGLMO4Yoa4uVRydOstJLDswhrj%2BzAY6mAFgw2A2LxRRj4nd8SdOiSyqbpQMymuVYed1mm6oVvILoXZbnTHEYKe42kN2hKbd5NieDbUDxCazp3fqh%2BS8R%2BFb8GR1W2xKMWJyCn6iwOwFUdhKVQ4RcSX3eqmpn2cAoiPWXh0VOIGMjhmOoAPsAIkU95v4Qvg0a7bmh4yW8e0yevwBVXkYYh0BgBPb00TpXP4hQVczL8FG5w%3D%3D&Expires=1772070766

[9] Nvidia Earnings Live: Chipmaker's Results Blow Past Wall Street Estimates as Customers 'Are Racing to Invest in AI' https://www.investopedia.com/nvidia-earnings-live-q4-fy2026-nvda-11914428

[10] Nvidia: Another Blockbuster Earnings Report (Rating Upgrade) (NASDAQ:NVDA) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4874836-nvidia-another-blockbuster-earnings-report-rating-upgrade

[11] Earnings call transcript: NVIDIA Q4 2026 beats expectations, stock ... https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-nvidia-q4-2026-beats-expectations-stock-rises-93CH-4526215

[12] NVIDIA Reports Q4'FY2026 Earnings: Data Center and ProViz Drive ... https://www.servethehome.com/nvidia-reports-q4-fy2026-earnings-data-center-and-proviz-drive-revenue-records/

[13] Nvidia, Dell & Snowflake Earnings Review: Fiscal Q4 2025 https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/03/nvidia-dell-snowflake-earnings-review-fiscal-q4-2025

[14] Nvidia's current forward P/E stands at 27 https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/comments/1ig2l4w/nvidias_current_forward_pe_stands_at_27/

[15] Everything You Need to Know About Nvidia's Q4 Earnings https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/everything-you-need-to-know-about-nvidia-s-q4-earnings-114074625769478

[16] NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Data Center Growth Amid ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-corp-nvda-q4-2025-072422920.html