Fear Creates The Dip SPY Creates The Opportunity

Michael Esther
03-01 12:45

IRAN is blowing up DUBAI. This means BUY THE DIP:

For every major war since 1990 the market has bounced up hard! You need to understand what the data says.

August 1990. Iraq invades Kuwait. The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ drops −16.9% over 71 days. Every headline screams sell. Every pundit says it's over. The people who sold at the bottom locked in a 16.9% loss.

The people who bought at the bottom made 24.2% in under 5 months.

September 11, 2001. The worst attack in American history. Markets close for 4 days. SPY drops −11.6% in a single week. The world feels like it is ending. The market bottomed on September 21st. By December it had recovered +21.2% from that low. In 10 weeks.

March 2003.

The U.S. invades Iraq. The market had already sold off −14.7% in the lead-up. Fear had been priced in for months. The day the bombs dropped, the market rallied. +27% in the year that followed.

January 2020. Soleimani strike. Markets barely move.

Then COVID crashes everything. From that combined bottom, SPY exploded +67%. 67%. That is not a typo.

The pattern is not subtle. It is not a coincidence. It has repeated across 10 conflicts spanning 35 years.

War creates panic. Panic creates the dip. The dip creates the opportunity. The market has never not once failed to recover from a war dip.

Average recovery across all 10 wars: +27% from the exact bottom. Every retail investor who sold during these moments made an emotional decision dressed up as a rational one.

The chart does not lie.

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