SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess.
The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game.
But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time.
Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional.
This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate.
Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range, selling it becomes less attractive.
For holders, though? Collars make sense now. Sell calls, buy puts. Zero-cost protection.
$NVDA$
A large call position rolled: March 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ rolled to June 150 call $NVDA 20260515 150.0 CALL$ — 87k contracts.
Translation: trading center of gravity shifting lower by ~10 points. From 180 to 170.
I’m a bit more optimistic. Think NVDA drifts back to 180 before next earnings.
The 155 put whale closed Monday. Weekly OTM puts can’t handle a bounce. Those betting on downside this week rolled to next week. If SPY tags 650, NVDA likely follows to 160.
For the next 4–5 weeks: sell calls on rips. Just don’t get greedy with low strikes — gamma squeeze risk is real. Stick to 190+.
$QQQ$
Next week’s expected range: 575–595. Call it 580.
$USO$
A 10k sell-call order got squeezed Monday $USO 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . Rolled to same expiry, strike bumped to 110 $USO 20260320 110.0 CALL$ .
If you're thinking short vol — maybe, but not my preference right now. See intro.
$XLE$
Clean flows:
Puts betting oil drops to 52.5 by mid-April: $XLE 20260417 52.5 PUT$
Another put sale saying 49.5 holds through H1: $XLE 20260417 52.5 PUT$ (same strike, different trade)
Upside punt: $XLE 20260417 68.0 CALL$
If you're long, take profits. Anything else? Luck-based.
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