$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ Technical analysis suggests gold prices are slightly weak in the short term, with key support at $5100.
Gold remains in a consolidation phase in the short term. XAU/USD has retreated from the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart and is currently fluctuating below the middle band, showing an overall neutral to slightly bearish pattern.
However, downside potential has temporarily found support. Gold prices previously found support at the lower Bollinger Band near $5057, easing the short-term decline.
In terms of technical indicators, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized after approaching oversold territory, but remains below 50, indicating that market momentum is still slightly downward. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is still below the signal line, but the negative histogram is narrowing, showing some easing of bearish pressure.
From a key price level perspective, the first resistance level for gold is around $5200, followed by the middle Bollinger Band near $5259, with further resistance at the upper Bollinger Band near $5461.
On the downside, the $5100 to $5000 range is a key short-term support area. If gold prices break below this level, the market may further decline to $4850 or even $4650.
Against the backdrop of continued tensions in the Middle East, increased volatility in the energy market, and persistent uncertainty in global monetary policy, the gold market will likely remain highly volatile in the short term. Only when the market develops a clearer expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path will gold prices potentially challenge historical highs again.
Wide-range consolidation is expected today, with a trading range of 5145-5250. Short-term focus should remain on buy orders.
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Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday (March 4) amid a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with spot gold stabilizing around $5,140, a daily gain of nearly 1%, quickly recovering from Tuesday's sharp correction.
This rally was directly driven by the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the resulting surge in global safe-haven demand, while a weakening US dollar further supported gold prices.
The market generally believes that as long as the conflict shows no signs of substantial de-escalation, gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset will continue to strengthen, and it may even challenge historical highs. In early Asian trading on Thursday (March 5), spot gold fluctuated slightly higher, currently trading around $5,170.
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