From my perspective, the
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ –Anthropic deal is less a “circular trade” and more about locking in demand. It may resemble the OpenAI–
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ dynamic, but the key is whether AWS revenue accelerates. If that $100B commitment materializes, it becomes a real backlog, not a bubble.
I’m more bullish on the Anthropic + Bedrock layer than pure compute. Compute is capital-heavy, but enterprise lock-in is the real moat. As companies embed Claude via Amazon Web Services, switching costs rise — similar to $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ’s model.
On $300, a re-rating like $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is possible but needs clearer monetization. If AWS growth re-accelerates, sentiment can shift. For now, Nvidia still holds the strongest pricing power. I also think the next key catalyst will be whether AI revenue starts contributing meaningfully to AWS margin expansion.
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