As we head into the April 23 report, the market isn't just looking at revenue—it’s looking for proof of life in the Foundry turnaround. Intel has set a low bar with a "break-even" EPS guide, but the technical undercurrents tell a more complex story.
📊 The Numbers at a Glance
Revenue Midpoint: $12.2B (Guidance: $11.7B – $12.7B).
Target EPS: $0.00 (Non-GAAP).
Gross Margin Floor: 34.5% (Watch this closely—any beat here signals better-than-expected yield).
🔍 Key "Battleground" Segments
💡 The "Secret" Metric: EUV Wafer Mix
Forget the headline loss for a second. The real indicator of Intel’s future is EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) utilization.
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The Goal: Moving from ~10% in 2025 to 15–18% this quarter.
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Why care? Higher EUV mix = fewer "multi-patterning" steps = lower costs = better yields.
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The Signal: If Gelsinger mentions "predictable yield improvements" (rumored ~7% monthly), that’s your cue that the 18A transition is actually working under the hood.
🏗️ Strategic Catalyst: The Ireland Fab Move
Intel’s recent $14.2B buyback of the 49% stake in its Ireland Fab is a massive "long-game" bet. It adds debt (~$6.5B) but proves Intel is betting the house on its own manufacturing superiority.
Intel (INTC) to Pay $14B to Buy Back Apollo (APO) Stake in Ireland Plant - Bloomberg
🏁 Summary for Tigers
Intel is currently in a "tug-of-war." The product side (AI PCs) is pulling up, while the Foundry investment is dragging down.
Bull Case: Reaffirmed positive Free Cash Flow for FY2026 + Gaudi 3 momentum.
Bear Case: Continued "supply constraints" and widening Foundry losses without new customer wins.
What’s your move? Are you buying the 18A turnaround or waiting for the Foundry losses to bottom out? 👇
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