As Iran, US, and Israel gradually release ceasefire signals,

the global market today has shown a very typical shift in expectations.

Within just a few hours this morning, several key changes happened at the same time.

Oil prices dropped rapidly, with very large intraday volatility.

Gold prices, on the other hand, surged significantly, while global stock markets entered a phase of rising risk appetite.

And stocks we are holding also experienced a broad and rapid increase under this environment.

If everyone looks back now at the changes over the past month,

you will realise something very important:

Market outcomes are often already embedded in the underlying logic they don’t happen suddenly.

When war first broke out on March 1,

market was almost entirely driven by emotions.

Fear, risk aversion, and all kinds of extreme expectations were mixed together.

But at that time, I repeatedly emphasised one core principle:

don’t just listen to what they say

focus on what they actually need.

Because what truly determines the direction

is never the tough statements on the surface,

but the real interests behind them.

Let’s first look at Iran.

Many people tend to judge Iran’s response intensity based on stance, emotions, and historical conflicts.

But if you truly go back to the real structural perspective,

you will realise that the current Iranian regime is essentially a system with deeply entrenched interests.

Over the past 50 years of rule,

it is not just about the continuation of the regime,

but the formation of multiple generations of interest groups,

with resources and power highly concentrated and deeply tied together.

Under such a structure,

the top priority for the new generation of leadership is no longer ideological expression,

but how to maintain the stability and continuity of the existing system.

If at this point, we further add the risks of food and supply chain disruptions,

the overall risk will be amplified even more.

Iran has long relied on imports of basic agricultural products such as wheat and soybeans.

Once war breaks out, maritime transport is disrupted, routes become restricted, and supply chains are cut off.

Inventory can only last for a limited period.

Once it exceeds the critical threshold,

the impact will no longer be just economic pressure,

but systemic instability at the societal level.

This is a level of risk that no government can afford to bear.