Last Week's Recap (April 27 – May 2, 2026) & April Monthly Recap

1. Moderating Market: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Add ~1% as April Momentum Cools

• U.S. indexes rose modestly for the second week in a row, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ both adding around 1%, while the Dow edged up 0.5%.

• The gains were more measured compared to the rapid advances in the first three weeks of April.

• The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ remains 1.4% below its record set nearly three months ago, even as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ pushed to fresh record levels.

2. Fed Transition: Hold with 4 Dissents as Powell Era Nears End

• The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, but the updated policy statement drew dissents from 4 of 12 members — reflecting wide-ranging views on the path forward.

• This was likely the final meeting led by Jerome Powell, who said he plans to remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends this month.

• Kevin Warsh's nomination to replace Powell cleared a Senate panel, setting up a confirmation vote by the full Senate.

3. Oil Volatility: Crude Whipsaws to $110 Before Settling Near $102

• Oil traded in a wide range, briefly hitting the highest level since early April — $110 on Thursday — before pulling back late in the week.

• U.S. crude was trading around $102 per barrel on Friday afternoon, up from roughly $95 the previous week.

• A couple of weeks earlier, crude was around $84, highlighting the extreme volatility driven by Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.

4. Inflation Watch: Core PCE Climbs to 3.2%, Highest Since Nov 2023

• The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index — climbed to an annual rate of 3.2% in March.

• The reading matched most economists' estimates but marked the highest level since November 2023.

• Higher oil prices rippled across the broader economy, keeping inflation fears alive even as the Fed held steady.

5. GDP Comeback: Q1 Growth Accelerates to 2.0% Annual Rate

• U.S. GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in Q1, accelerating from 0.5% in the preceding quarter.

• Despite the pickup, the government's initial first-quarter estimate came in slightly lower than most economists had forecast.

• The slowdown from the 4.4% rate recorded in Q3 2025 suggests the economy is cooling but not collapsing.

6. Earnings Progress: S&P 500 Q1 Profit Growth Forecast Surges to 27.1%

• Earnings season forecasts rose sharply after mega-cap tech companies reported better-than-expected results.

• Analysts projected S&P 500 earnings rose 27.1% in Q1, up from a 15.0% forecast at the end of the previous week, per FactSet.

• The latest forecast was based on the 63% of S&P 500 companies that had reported as of Friday.

7. Jobs Ahead: Labor Market Stuck in Zig-Zag as April NFP Looms

• A jobs report due out on Friday will show whether recent labor market strength extended into April.

• In March, the economy added an above-forecast 178,000 jobs, rebounding from a net loss of 133,000 in February.

• The labor market has been stuck in a zig-zag pattern over the past 10 months, posting job declines in five of those months followed by gains in each of the subsequent months.

April Monthly Recap

1. Bullish April: NASDAQ Posts Best Month Since 2020 with 15.3% Surge

• U.S. stocks rebounded in a big way from negative first-quarter results, with two indexes posting double-digit returns.

• The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 15.3% to record its biggest monthly gain since April 2020.

• The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's 10.4% rise was that index's biggest since November 2020.

• The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ advanced 7.1% for its strongest monthly result since November 2024.

2. Tech-Led Recovery: Mag7 Earnings Smash Expectations

• Mega-cap tech companies reported better-than-expected results, driving the S&P 500 earnings forecast up sharply from 15.0% to 27.1%.

• Growth stocks outpaced value for the fourth straight week, gaining 16% over the four-week stretch vs. just 8% for value, chipping away at value's YTD lead.

• The Magnificent Seven continued to generate a disproportionate share of overall earnings growth.

3. Fed on Hold: 99% Probability of No Change as Leadership Transition Begins

• The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its April 29 meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing in a 99% probability of no change.

• Four dissenting votes on the policy statement highlighted wide-ranging views on the path forward.

• The meeting marked the likely end of Jerome Powell's chairmanship, with Kevin Warsh's nomination advancing through the Senate panel.

4. Oil Shock: Crude Surges from ~$84 to ~$110 on Middle East Conflict

• $WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ Oil prices whipsawed dramatically in April, with U.S. crude trading as high as $110 before settling near $102 by month-end.

• The surge was driven by shifting narratives about Middle East conflict and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Even with the monthly rise, oil was well below its year-to-date peak of around $113 reached on April 7.

5. Inflation Resurgence: Core PCE Hits 3.2%, Highest Since Nov 2023

• Core PCE inflation climbed to an annual rate of 3.2% in March, the highest since November 2023.

• Higher oil prices rippled across the broader economy, threatening to keep inflation sticky.

• The reading matched economists' estimates but reinforced concerns that the Fed's inflation fight is not over.

6. Economic Resilience: Q1 GDP Prints 2.0% Despite Geopolitical Headwinds

• U.S. GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in Q1, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025 but down from 4.4% in Q3 2025.

• The economy showed resilience despite geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices.

• Consumer spending remained supported even as the University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 49.8 in April.

7. Labor Market Choppiness: March Payrolls Rebound to 178K

• The labor market continued its zig-zag pattern, with March adding 178,000 jobs after February's 133,000 net loss.

• The 10-month pattern of alternating job declines and gains kept economists guessing about the true health of the labor market.

• April payrolls data due Friday (May 2) would set the tone for Fed expectations heading into May.