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Hi everyone - first newsletter of the week! Let’s review some names:
The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (NYSE: EL)
Overall Comments: EL is currently in a long-term uptrend. There are 2 potential support trendlines in play (< 3 touches) - the blue and dark-green trendlines. EL has been consolidating in the descending broadening wedge pattern since topping in 2021, and is currently basing over the 74.18 Fib level. Timeframes Yearly: Bulls defended the 41-50 bullish imbalance last year, while bears still have control of the 160-186 bearish imbalance. Half-Yearly: Filled the 86-104 bearish imbalance in H2’25, before rejecting below the 86.32 level this year. Bullish imbalance at 36-41 remains unfilled. Quarterly: Rejected the 108-124 bearish imbalance in Q1 this year. Outlook: If EL is unable to reclaim the 2015 candle close at 88, then it could head back into the blue line. If the line and the 60.44 Fib level breaks, EL could head into the 41-50 yearly imbalance once more. If EL breaks out of the descending broadening wedge pattern, then it could attempt to fill the 124.14 quarterly imbalance once more. Once that level turns into support, EL can push back into the 1.618 Fib level at 142.22.
Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN)
Overall Comments: LEN is currently in a stable uptrend and respecting the dark green support trendline since 1974. After rejecting off the 2.618 Fib extension at 183.41 in 2024, LEN has been in a short-term downtrend bounded by the resistance trendline, which I theorise to be part of a descending channel (refer to the weekly chart). Timeframes Yearly: On track to form a bearish imbalance at the end of the year, provided that LEN doesn’t wick above 133.72. Half-Yearly: LEN rejected below the 95.24 prior bullish imbalance level. Quarterly: LEN rejected below the 89.31 prior bullish imbalance level. Monthly: Bulls managed to defend the 82-85 bullish imbalance zone. Note the bearish imbalance at 98-108 as well. Outlook: If LEN fills the monthly imbalance at 107.50, turns it into support, and breaks out of the resistance trendline, then it can push into the 1.618 Fib level at 114.66 and the 2021 candle close at 116.16 next. A breakout above these levels can see a push back into the yearly resistance at 133.72. If LEN is unable to reclaim the 95-98 zone, then it could push back into the 82-85 monthly imbalance. If this zone is lost, then it can retest the 63-72 yearly zone next, with downside as far as the dark green support trendline. If LEN breaks down below the dark green support trendline, then it can fill the 53-57 monthly imbalance.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA)
Overall Comments: ULTA is currently in a stable uptrend and respecting the dark green support trendline dating back to 2010. It’s been having difficulty holding above the 1.618 Fib extension at 551.96, with the recent breakout being sold back below this level. Timeframes Yearly: Notable bullish imbalance at 305-331, which coincides with the 305.42 Fib level. Half-Yearly: On track to form a fresh bullish imbalance above 491.98, provided that ULTA doesn’t wick below this level. Quarterly: Nearest higher timeframe bullish imbalance sits at 492-493. Monthly: Main bearish imbalance sits at 579-643 due to the bearish PEG formed during Q1 earnings. Furthermore, ULTA formed a bearish stochastic crossover last month. Outlook: If ULTA is unable to reclaim the 551.96 Fib level, then it could see downside continuation into the 490-493 area, which has a confluence of support from the quarterly imbalance as well as the 2023 candle close at 489.99. If more support levels are broken, then it could possibly head back into the dark green support trendline. If ULTA reclaims 551.96, then it can push back into the monthly resistance level at 578.63. Once ULTA breaks above this level, then it likely starts filling the bearish imbalance into the 2025 candle close at 605.01. If ULTA manages to fill the bearish imbalance at 643.43 and turn it into support, then it likely forms new highs and sees price discovery as far as the 2.618 Fib extension at 848.28.
@TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerEvents @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger
$Estee Lauder(EL)$ $Lennar(LEN)$ $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $GameStop(GME)$
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