Cadi Poon
05-13
Q1 revenue $14.7M, vs. Street expectations of $39M, a gap of over 60%. Loss per share $0.66, Street expected $0.24, loss nearly tripled. Operating expenses $164.1M, engineering and administrative expenses climbed significantly.

Only bright spot: Full-year guidance maintained at $150–200M, cash reserves $3.5 billion, no short-term shortage of money. Obtained FCC authorization allowing 248 satellites to provide commercial services in the US. Technically, Block 1 satellites peaked at 98.9 Mbps download; Block 2 is expected to double. Market cap once reached 32 billion, while Q1 actual revenue was $14.73 million. Launch execution is the most critical variable this year—3 satellites in mid-June, followed by 20+. Blue Origin let a satellite enter the wrong orbit last month; execution risk is real.

SpaceX Falls 1.4% Monday; European Rival Eyes $2B Valuation as Challenger?
SpaceX-linked shares closed down 1.36% Monday, falling alongside broader Musk-related names. A European rocket startup is racing toward a $2 billion valuation, directly targeting SpaceX's launch dominance; analysts note its closest IPO comparable 'is not Tesla.' The competitive landscape and valuation benchmarks for commercial space are under fresh scrutiny. With a European challenger entering the arena and proxy-share premiums under pressure, how long can SpaceX's scarcity premium hold?
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