I’m bullish on SpaceX’s long-term potential, especially Starlink scaling, launch dominance, and its role in future AI infrastructure. However, at a $1.77T valuation, I think the market is already pricing in very aggressive multi-year growth expectations, so this feels more like a forward narrative than current fundamentals.
The main concern for me is heavy cash burn and uncertain monetization timing, especially around xAI and AI expansion. Even if the total addressable market is huge, competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google makes execution uncertain. With free cash flow still negative, the risk-reward at IPO pricing feels stretched.
Personally, I would not chase the IPO on listing day. I’d prefer to wait for post-IPO volatility or clearer evidence of sustainable profitability. I’m not dismissing the long-term story, but at this level I see it as a high-risk narrative trade rather than a disciplined entry point.
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