My base case: Above $135.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SpaceX Surges 15.8% — Rocket Lab Reports Tonight. Who Takes the Baton?
SpaceX +15.83% last Friday, straight through the largest lock-up expiry on record. Kevin O'Leary, who missed the IPO, is waiting for the stock to settle before buying. The sector followed: Rocket Lab +9.46%, reporting tonight, Wall Street looking for about $232 million in revenue and 60% growth — the stock still ~57% below its high. The leader ran on position clearing; the challenger has to earn it.
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