My base case: Above $135.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SpaceX Slides for Third Day to $185 — Time to Exit?
SpaceX (SPCX) fell another 3.56% today, retreating to $185 as IPO euphoria rapidly fades. Analyst sentiment has shifted cautious, with calls to 'sell based on historical IPO patterns' and advice for long-term holders to 'take profits into strength.' The first sell rating has emboldened bears, while questions over AI disrupting its core business add pressure. From a post-IPO surge to three straight losses — do you sell the next bounce, or wait for a deeper pullback to buy in?
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