CharlesBaker
06-14 22:35

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ This IPO could end up being remembered for more than just its record-breaking size.

What really stands out isn't just the ~$75B raise—it's the underlying structure:

~$18.7B in annual revenue

$2T valuation

Only ~3–4% public float

This creates a situation where index funds, institutions, and retail are all competing for extremely limited supply. Price discovery becomes more flow-driven than just fundamentals.

The next layer is even bigger:

OpenAI is reportedly targeting a valuation near ~$1T.

Anthropic is also moving toward a similar scale.

Their combined potential adds trillions in new AI market cap.

In the near term, this structure is bullish—forced buying, passive flows, and AI momentum could push valuations well beyond what traditional models suggest.

But historically, when a few names dominate index weight and the narrative, flows start to matter more than cash flows.

We might not be fully there yet, but this setup is moving in that direction faster than most are pricing in.

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