$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ Running the numbers on ASTS using SpaceX's Starlink as a benchmark. ASTS only needs $5.5B in sales at an 80% operating margin to generate a similar $4.5B profit.
Starlink's revenue is $11.4B with a 39% operating margin, yielding $4.4B.
Projected margins for ASTS are expected to be closer to 90%... if all goes well, we should see around $5B by 2029.
Using Starlink's 61% share of SpaceX's total revenue and a current cap of $2.38T, Starlink's implied valuation is about $1.5T. That's a 40x multiple.
My price target for ASTS in 2030 is now $3500. Appreciating the re-rating for space-based connectivity, thanks to SpaceX.
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