NDX Bullish Setup Is Gone

Good morning, tigers! ☀️

The bullish SMT divergence on $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is now gone. That was the last major piece of confluence supporting the immediate bounce scenario.

With that signal invalidated, the near-term bias shifts back to the downside. 📉

🎯 First: Lower Prices

I’m looking for $NDX to move lower first, with the next focus on the previously identified equality targets.

I don’t want to chase the initial selloff, though. The better setup may come after the first leg lower.

🔄 Then: Wait for Wave 2

Once those downside targets are reached, I’ll be watching for a corrective bounce — Wave 2.

That rebound is the move I’m most interested in.

Lower first → Wave 2 bounce → Look for the short. 🎯

A corrective rally would give the market room to reset while creating a potentially cleaner risk/reward setup for the next bearish leg.

⚠️ The Bigger Bearish Thesis Hasn’t Changed

The loss of the bullish SMT doesn’t mean the market has to fall in a straight line. Sharp countertrend rallies can still happen.

But for now, the larger bearish structure remains intact.

The bullish bounce case has weakened. The downside comes first.

And if Wave 2 develops as expected, that’s where I want to get short. 🔻

The larger bearish move may have only just begun.