$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ is down 28% from its highs and trades at roughly 19x P/E.
Analysts expect earnings to grow about 25% annually through 2028, which would roughly double EPS and bring today's multiple down to around 10x.
I think those estimates are too conservative.
My view: $NU could be trading at just 6–8x 2028 EPS if Mexico continues scaling the way I expect.
🇲🇽 Mexico is the key piece.
Nu Mexico reached breakeven two quarters ago, and its growth trajectory is already moving faster than Brazil did at a similar stage.
The most interesting data point is ARPU.
Q2 2026:
🇲🇽 Mexico: $12.30
🇧🇷 Brazil: $5.60 at a comparable point in its growth journey
Mexico has already reached 16M customers, while Nu is applying the playbook it developed through years of scaling Brazil.
Every new market gives Nu another set of lessons.
Brazil → Mexico → Colombia → potentially the US.
That learning curve could become one of Nu's biggest advantages.
If Mexico keeps compounding over the next two years, I think the market may eventually have to rethink what Nu's normalized earnings power looks like.
And that's why, in my view, Mexico may be the best evidence for the eventual US opportunity.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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