I’d watch A: HBM demand and AI data-center spending most closely. Micron’s Q4 results—$54.23B revenue, 87% non-GAAP gross margin, and Q1 guidance of about $61.5B—show that demand remains exceptionally strong. Management also expects HBM demand to grow faster than conventional DRAM through 2028, with much of next year’s HBM supply already committed.
Inventory is important, but the recent increase appears partly related to end-of-life inventory build-ahead and higher manufacturing costs, with management expecting inventory days to decline. Market share will affect margins and valuation, but sustained AI infrastructure spending is the bigger driver of the entire memory upcycle. If hyperscaler capex or GPU deployments slow, even strong HBM share gains may not prevent a cyclical correction.
Micron Technology Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Surpassing Estimates with Positive Market Reaction
Micron Technology announced its Q4 financial results, reporting an EPS of USD 32.87 and adjusted EPS of USD 33.42, both exceeding IBES estimates. The company posted a net income of USD 37,701 million and adjusted net income of USD 38,398 million. Revenue reached USD 54,229 million, surpassing the estimated USD 51,069 million. Following the earnings report, Micron's shares rose by 1% in extended trading, reflecting positive market reaction. The outlook for Q1 is positive, with a projected gross margin of 85.95%, revenue of USD 61,500 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 38.15, all above estimates.
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