Hakunayourtatas
10-04 16:52
Replying to @MurrayBulwer:Yeah a 100% - that $15.50 volume bounce was crucial for establishing this base. Clearing $20 would definitely trigger momentum buyers and squeeze shorts, opening up room toward the higher targets fast.//@MurrayBulwer:15.50 with volume was the real tell, this still looks like a short term floor. If CIFR clears 20, the upside probably opens up fast
@Hakunayourtatas：$CIFR CALENDAR 261016/261002 PUT 18.0/PUT 18.0$ Rolled puts for very modest premiums as puts were expiring this Friday, of course prices have to tank and low volume on the trade made it very hard for the order to fill, so lower premiums were the trade off lor low liquidity and weak price action. 1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now? Modest Yield with Defined Downside Cushion: Selling 10 put contracts at the $18 strike collects $200 total premium ($0.20/share). While this is a modest yield (~1.1% on the $18,000 cash backdrop over 2 weeks), it effectively lowers the entry cost basis to $17.80. Testing Key Short-Term Support ($14.50 – $15.50): CIFR has pulled back significantly from recent multi-month highs near $30 into a high-volume demand zone around $14.50–$15.50. Selling the put allows me to capture income off this short-term bounce zone rather than chasing momentum at higher levels. Prices at $14 still held and continues sideways, but currently prices are rebounding as we speak, probably institutions or market makers are stop hunting or causing max pain for options. Defined Risk Exposure: Rather than committing $18,000 to buy 1,000 shares outright, the options trade defines my entry level and yields cash flow while waiting for price discovery. 2️⃣ What’s my plan from here & key risks? ⚠️ Caution: Extended Above Monthly Ichimoku Cloud (Sideways Risk) Chart Warning: On the higher timeframes (Monthly chart), CIFR remains stretched far above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) and its baseline (Kijun-sen). Implication: Extended distance from monthly cloud support often leads to prolonged mean-reversion or sideways consolidation while waiting for the indicators/cloud to catch up. Trade Impact: Expecting explosive upside right away may be unrealistic; a sideways chop between $15.00 and $18.00 is a high-probability outcome over the coming weeks. Key Technical Levels to Monitor: Immediate Support: $14.50 – $15.00. A daily close below $14.50 invalidates the short-term base and risks a drop toward $12.50. Immediate Resistance: $18.00 (Strike price) followed by $20.00. Execution Plan & Next Steps: If Price Stays Above $18.00: The option expires worthless, letting me pocket the full $200 and free up cash for the next setup. If Assigned Below $18.00: I will take ownership of 1,000 shares at a net cost basis of $17.80 and transition to selling Covered Calls (the "Wheel" strategy) at or above $18 to keep generating yield. If Support Breaks ($14.00): If heavy selling pushes price below $14.00, I will re-evaluate rolling the puts out to a lower strike for additional credit or taking the loss to preserve capital. Growth story is still intact and recent news on the tenor of Barber Lake extending to 20 years and contracted revenue going up to USD9B, screams insatiable demand.
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