IOVA Analyst-Style Valuation

1. CURRENT BUSINESS (Melanoma only)

Amtagvi approved Feb 2024. Revenue trajectory:

• Q1 2025: $49M

• Q2 2025: $60M

• Q1 2026: ~$71M (est)

• Q2 2026: $99M (+66% YoY)

• FY2026 guidance: $410-420M

• Gross margin: 56%, improving each quarter

Melanoma TAM:

• ~8,000-10,000 eligible patients/year in US (advanced, post-PD1)

• Average treatment cost: ~$500,000 per patient

• Theoretical max US revenue: ~$4-5B

• Realistic penetration at maturity (5-7 years): 20-25% = $800M-1.2B US alone

• Ex-US potential: EU approval pending, limited currently

Current run rate: $420M annualised. At 56% gross margin = $235M gross profit. Still burning cash on R&D and SG&A. Profitable at EBITDA level possible by 2027.

2. NEAR-TERM REVENUE MODEL (Melanoma only)

Year Revenue Gross Margin Gross Profit

2026 $415M 56% $232M

2027 $560M 60% $336M

2028 $720M 63% $454M

This is melanoma only, assuming continued penetration + EU launch.

At 8x revenue (biotech growth multiple for approved commercial-stage), melanoma alone = $5.8B market cap = ~$9/share (650M shares outstanding).

That's roughly where the stock is NOW at $9.56. Market is pricing in zero NSCLC value.

3. NSCLC SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Assumptions:

• ~250,000 new NSCLC diagnoses/year in US

• ~60% non-squamous (eligible) = 150,000

• ~45% biomarker-enriched (KRAS wt + HER2 wt + smoker) = 67,500 eligible

• Realistic penetration in second-line post-PD1: 10% at launch, 20% at maturity

• Price: $400,000-500,000 per treatment

Scenario Patients Treated Revenue

Conservative (10% penetration, broad label) 8,000 $3.2B

Base (15% biomarker-enriched) 10,000 $4.0B

Bull (25% penetration + frontline) 25,000 $10B+

Realistic base case 2029-2030 (post-approval): $1-2B NSCLC revenue added to $800M+ melanoma = $1.8-2.8B total revenue

4. PIPELINE OPTIONALITY (NOT priced in)

Program Timeline Peak Revenue Potential

NSCLC second-line (broad) 2028 approval $1-3B

NSCLC biomarker-enriched (Positility) 2029-2030 $2-4B

NSCLC frontline (Opulism) 2030+ $3-5B

Colorectal (KRAS wt) 2029+ $1-2B

Sarcoma (2 subtypes) 2028+ $300-500M

Frontline melanoma 2027+ +$300M incremental

Total peak revenue potential (2030-2032): $5-10B

5. FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE

DCF / Comparable approach:

Scenario 2028 Revenue Multiple Market Cap Per Share

Bear (melanoma only, NSCLC fails) $720M 6x $4.3B $6.60

Base (melanoma + NSCLC approval 2028) $1.4B 7x $9.8B $15

Bull (melanoma + NSCLC + colorectal) $2.5B 8x $20B $31

Risk-weighted (60% base, 25% bull, 15% bear):

= (0.60 × $15) + (0.25 × $31) + (0.15 × $6.60)

= $9 + $7.75 + $1 = ~$18 fair value

6. WHAT THE MARKET IS SAYING AT $9.56

The market is currently pricing:

• Melanoma ramp continues ✓

• NSCLC approval probability: ~20-25% (heavily discounted)

• Zero colorectal / pipeline value

• Execution risk on manufacturing at scale

• Interim CEO discount

That's too pessimistic given 90% manufacturing success rate, existing FDA relationship, and 59.1% biomarker ORR data.

Bottom Line

$9.56 = melanoma-only valuation. Every dollar of NSCLC success is free upside from here. A $15-18 fair value is defensible on a risk-weighted basis if you believe the SBLA gets filed in 2027 and FDA engages constructively.