Stocks to Watch Today (2 Nov): Nasdaq's Worst Day Since June, Then a Week of Apple, AMD, the Midterms and Payrolls. My Plan: Only Scan Names That Have Already Reported

Written Monday 2 Nov, SGT, using Friday's US closes.

How October ended

Friday's session wiped out a lot of the month:

- Nasdaq: -2.86% to 25,437.00, its worst day since June 5, and down more than 5% for October

- S&P 500: -1.82% to 7,580.07, down about 1.2% for the month

- Dow: -1.09% to 51,770.31, but still up about 1.5% for October

- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: -7.2% to 10,688.8, with 29 of 30 members lower, leaving it about 20% below its peak according to BofA

What drove it:

- Intel fell 28.58% to $65.76, its worst day since 1974. It guided Q4 revenue to $15 to $16 billion against about $17.1 billion expected, and adjusted EPS to $0.25 against about $0.43. Intel's five-year CDS widened to a record 124.75bp.

- The selloff spread. AMD fell 10.9%, SanDisk more than 13%, Qualcomm more than 11%, Dell around 10%, TSMC and Broadcom more than 5%, and Nvidia 4.2% to $204.64. The AP said Nvidia was the biggest single drag on the S&P 500.

- Amazon recovered from a roughly 7% pre-market drop to close down 1.41% at $240.35. Q3 results came in just below estimates, AWS grew 39%, and trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. Amazon kept its 2026 capex plan at $220 billion.

- Apple passed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, at $5.03 trillion against $4.93 trillion, after Nvidia's drop.

The bigger theme hasn't changed. The market is questioning whether AI spending pays off, while the costs keep rising. BofA says hyperscaler debt issuance has reached $182 billion this year, against $17 billion in all of 2024.

The Fed backdrop

On Oct 28 the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, but two officials dissented in favor of a hike. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday that she thinks at least two more 25bp hikes are needed before pausing. The next decision is Dec 9. Hikes are back on the table, which matters for every high-multiple chip stock.

This week's calendar (Singapore time)

Note: US clocks moved back on Nov 1. The US market now opens at 10:30 PM SGT, one hour later than last week.

Monday 2 Nov

- 11:00 PM: ISM Manufacturing for October

- After the US close (Tuesday about 6 AM SGT): Apple, EPS estimate $1.98 against $1.85 a year ago. Watch gross margin and iPhone timing, given memory costs.

- Same time: Palantir, EPS estimate $0.33 against $0.18. Palantir guided Q3 revenue to $2.160 to $2.164 billion.

Tuesday 3 Nov

- US midterm elections. Results come in during Asia's Wednesday morning.

- Before the open: Shopify ($0.33), Pfizer, Ferrari

- After the close (Wednesday about 6 AM SGT): AMD, EPS estimate $1.68 against $0.97 a year ago, with company guidance of about $13 billion in revenue and a 56% gross margin. After Friday's 10.9% drop, this is the most important chip report of the week.

Wednesday 4 Nov

- Before the open: Uber ($0.94), CVS, Datadog

- After the close: Qualcomm ($1.46), Arm ($0.22), AppLovin ($3.94), DoorDash ($0.82)

Thursday 5 Nov

- After the close: Airbnb ($2.89), Cloudflare, Microchip

Friday 6 Nov

- 9:30 PM SGT: October payrolls. The consensus is +55,000 jobs against +29,000 in September, with unemployment expected at 4.2%.

Stocks I'm watching

$AAPL: now the most valuable company in the world. The question is whether rising memory costs show up in gross margin guidance. A miss here would hit the one mega-cap that held up on Friday.

$AMD: down 10.9% on Friday before reporting at all. A good report could spark a sharp relief rally. A cautious one would confirm the sector selloff.

$PLTR: on my watchlist. It reports today, so it's in my blackout window.

$NVDA: Nvidia has confirmed its report for Nov 17. Until then, it moves with the rest of the sector.

$AMZN: Q3 is done and the stock held up better than the sector. One of the few large names whose report is already behind it.

How I'm running my sell-put strategy this week

1. Blocked by the calendar.

- Apple and Palantir (today) and AMD (Tuesday) are reporting. No new puts.

- Nvidia reports Nov 17. My 30 to 45 day expiries now run from early to mid-December, so every one of them crosses the report. Blocked.

2. Scan only the names that have already reported.

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta have all reported, and their next reports are expected in late January. That's the only group where the calendar is clean for November and December expiries. Friday's selloff may have pushed their volatility up, and that's exactly the setup a put seller waits for.

3. A clean calendar is not a green light.

Each name still has to pass every gate on the live chain:

- Stock above its 200-day moving average

- IV Rank of at least 40%

- IV Percentile of at least 45%

- Implied volatility at least 1.2 times historical volatility

If a name fails any of these, I skip it, however good the story is.

4. Don't sell into the midterm result.

Tuesday is a binary event. I'd rather give up one day of premium than open a position into an election outcome. I'll wait for the results on Wednesday morning SGT and see how the market reacts that night.

5. Raise the cash buffer.

A 7.2% day in semiconductors, two Fed officials voting for a hike, and payrolls on Friday. That's exactly when my rule says to keep more spare cash. Size stays capped at 5% for core names and 2% for the rest.

6. The exits don't change.

Every position gets a 50% take-profit GTC order on fill, a stop at 2x the premium for core names and 2.5x for the rest, and one roll at most.

My plan

No new trades before Wednesday. I'll watch Apple and Palantir on Tuesday morning, the midterm results on Wednesday morning, and AMD on Wednesday morning too. Then I'll scan the names that have already reported. If any of them has sold off into fear while staying above its 200-day, with volatility rich enough to pass my gates, that's where I sell puts. The selloff creates the opportunity. The rules decide whether it's one I take.

Your turn: is Friday's chip crash the start of a bigger AI reset, or a shakeout before Nvidia reports on Nov 17? And which event worries you most this week: Apple, the midterms or payrolls?

This is my personal trading framework, shared for education. It is not investment advice. Options carry significant risk, including assignment and losses larger than the premium collected. Always verify live chain data and confirmed earnings dates before trading.

$AAPL $AMD $PLTR $NVDA $AMZN