Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed.Market Reaction and Inflation OutlookPersistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference ov