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2021-06-29

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Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade

2021-06-29

T

Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade

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Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubling in ten years? 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Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869116,"gmtCreate":1624956188135,"gmtModify":1703848778331,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496835855734052","authorIdStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869116","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":457278839898440,"gmtCreate":1752677026362,"gmtModify":1752678412390,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496835855734052","authorIdStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDC\">$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDC\">$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$GD Culture Group Limited(GDC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/457278839898440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869832,"gmtCreate":1624956188626,"gmtModify":1703848778170,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496835855734052","authorIdStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869832","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159869116,"gmtCreate":1624956188135,"gmtModify":1703848778331,"author":{"id":"3496835855734052","authorId":"3496835855734052","name":"王智鹏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496835855734052","authorIdStr":"3496835855734052"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159869116","repostId":"1194390769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194390769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612572263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194390769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubling in ten years? Morgan Stanley says China's consumption will undergo dramatic changes in the next decade\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030, reaching US $13 trillion.<b>After the epidemic, China's internal economic cycle strategy, policy direction to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and world-leading digitalization, coupled with significant changes in demographic structure, will promote earth-shaking changes in Chinese residents' consumption in the next decade</b>, there is not only a happy picture that exceeds the scale of consumption in the United States today, but also structural challenges and track changes worthy of attention.</p><p>The domestic consumer market is the core market to realize the dual-circulation strategy. Faced with the multiple challenges of internal aging and external anti-globalization, how does China release its consumption potential, how does its demand structure change, and how does its industry ecology change?</p><p>Morgan Stanley's consumer analyst Lou Chao, and China's chief economist Xing Ziqiang, together with 18 researchers, in the latest in-depth report \"China Consumption 2030 Outlook\",<b>It is estimated that the scale of private consumption in China will more than double to $13 trillion in 2030.</b></p><p>Behind the total amount lies a great change in structure. Families and middle-aged and elderly people will replace young people as the main force of consumption increment, and service consumption will be institutionalized and specialized, accounting for a significant increase in proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 1: Main conclusions of China's 2030 consumer market report, source: Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p>In the next decade, the main driving forces of China's consumption growth and structural change will come from income, reform and population structure.</p><p>First of all, income growth is the ballast stone of consumption. Driven by the three pillars of new urbanization, industrial autonomy and RMB internationalization, China is expected to resist anti-globalization in the post-epidemic world, maintain productivity growth, cross the middle-income trap, and quickly reach the standard of high-income economy defined by the World Bank. At the same time, the share of labor remuneration in the overall GDP is expected to continue to increase.</p><p>This is closely related to the change of China's demographic structure and economic transformation: as China crosses the Lewis turning point and the economy gradually transforms to the service industry, the proportion of labor remuneration has stabilized and rebounded. The ratio of wage income to GDP rose from 48% in 2007-11 to 52% in 2017, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next decade.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley's team predicts that China's per capita annual disposable income is expected to rise from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 2: China's per capita disposable income will double in the next decade, source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research, E = Morgan Stanley Research Forecast)</p><p>Second, look at reform. At present, there are still some bottlenecks in China that restrain consumption potential, which need to be improved: the urbanization rate of permanent residents is 61%, and the urbanization rate of household registration is less than 50%, which means that the proportion of rural population is still high, and the penetration rate of service industry is still low. At the same time, social security is related to household registration, and its coverage is insufficient. Residents' preventive savings are high, with a savings rate as high as 35%.</p><p>In contrast, when Japan's demographic dividend turned in the 1990s, its urbanization rate was as high as 77%, and its savings rate was as low as 17%.</p><p>Therefore, to release China's consumption potential, it needs to take a two-pronged approach on the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, speed up the construction of new infrastructure (such as 5G base stations, charging piles, data centers, intercity high-speed rail, etc.), build urbanization 2.0, give full play to the agglomeration effect of population and enterprises with the five metropolitan areas as the center, increase the urbanization rate, lay the foundation for \"all-weather\" consumption anytime and anywhere, and provide the soil for scale effect for emerging service industries.</p><p>In addition, the epidemic has pressed the pause button for international travel, superimposing the long-term trend of anti-globalization. The government is trying to clear the blocking points of consumption and promote the return of overseas consumption. In addition to establishing Hainan Duty Free Island and promoting domestic duty-free sales, it may also reduce the consumption tax of some products in the future, and increase the opening up of financial, medical, entertainment and other service industries.<b>Morgan Stanley predicts that from 2021 to 23, Chinese residents will have about US $100 billion in overseas consumption returning every year, boosting domestic consumption by 1-2 percentage points.</b></p><p>On the demand side, the decision-making level will continue to promote household registration reform and expand the coverage of social security to reduce residents' preventive savings. In addition, relative to high-income groups, the marginal propensity to consume of low-income groups is higher. Against the background of significantly reducing personal income tax on wages in the past decade, the government may introduce property taxes such as property tax and capital gains tax in the next decade to reduce income and wealth inequality, thus expanding domestic demand.</p><p>Finally, demographics are crucial. The aging population increases the proportion of consumers in the economy, which makes China's overall savings rate enter a downward channel, and the consumption rate continues to rise. Although this seems to be an old growth talk, the drastic changes in the demographic structure behind it will still exceed most people's cognition.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research and judgment is that although the current enterprises and markets attach great importance to the consumption hotspots and new things of the younger generation, by 2030, the backbone needs of families aged 35-44 and the needs of middle-aged and elderly people over 55 will become the main consumer force in China; On the contrary, the proportion of young people under the age of 35 in total consumption will decline.</p><p>China experienced two baby booms in the 1960s and 1986-90. The former has a total of about 140 million people. They have experienced the reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO in 2001. They have enjoyed the dividends brought by China's economic growth and accumulated residents' wealth. In the next ten years, this generation will gradually enter the retirement age (over 55 years old) and promote the development of leisure, medical care and pension industries. The total number of baby boomers in the second wave is about 120 million, most of whom are only children. This group will enter the age group of 35-45 in the next decade. Coupled with the appreciation of accumulated assets, its proportion of total social wealth will increase from 18% now to 23%. Around setting up families, raising children and caring for the elderly, the expenditure on related service industries will increase significantly.</p><p>On the contrary, in the next ten years, the size of the young population will decrease, and the corresponding demand for sports, beauty, games, youth entertainment, etc. will gradually ebb.</p><p>Driven by the above three factors, Morgan Stanley predicts that China's private consumption will more than double in 2030 to US $13 trillion, 30% higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast in the first blue book on China's economy four years ago, reaching the current market size of the United States, and the proportion of service consumption will rise from 45% to 52%.</p><p>First of all, the expansion of the middle-aged and elderly population will increase the demand for medical, entertainment, nursing and other services. Secondly, at present, more than 55% of the people in the golden working age (25-54 years old) are only children, with both old and young. Services such as old-age care and childcare may be further marketized, scaled and standardized. Finally, the popularization of big data applications and the acceleration of digitalization will also contribute to the further penetration of service consumption.</p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the future focus of the market will shift from today's brands and channels to technology and services. According to the adaptability and sensitivity of each industry to the above-mentioned changes in income, technology, and population, we divide the consumption sector into four major tracks: take-off, emerging, transformation, and maturity.</p><p><b>Takeoff:</b>These industries will grow rapidly, such as medical services, property management, aged care services, health insurance, education, tourism, duty-free shopping and housekeeping services.</p><p><b>Transformation:</b>It means that traditional industries must adopt structural changes, meet challenges, and adapt to new business models, such as smart homes, new energy vehicles, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and changes in channels and supply chains.</p><p><b>Emerging:</b>These industries hardly exist today, but with the organic combination of technology and services, they are expected to shine in 2030. Specific examples include: service robots, emotional companionship, rehabilitation medical care, and new consumption forms and concepts under the framework of ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) sustainable development.</p><p><b>ripe</b>: Such industries may be impacted by demographic changes and technological progress, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, traditional cars and traditional homes, which will slow down significantly.</p><p>Using the above framework, Morgan Stanley has identified related industries and launched the opportunity outlook for the next ten years, including professional services for institutions (education, comprehensive platform, medical care, retirement services, medical insurance and supply chain management), smart life (electronic property management, smart home and new energy vehicles), and goods and services with greatly upgraded experience (emotional companionship, medical rehabilitation, robots) will usher in solid growth. On the contrary, offline channels and traditional commodities (fuel vehicles and traditional home appliances, etc.) will face challenges, including some industries that are still growing strongly at present, such as low-end drinks and basic necessities of life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Figure 5: Four Business Types and Prospects)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}