LuckyLion personal page - To The Moon

LuckyLion

LuckyLion

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2024-01-11

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

2024-01-10

[Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great]

2024-01-10

[What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What]

2024-01-09

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

2024-01-08

[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]

2024-01-08

[What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What] [What]

2024-01-07

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2024-01-06

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2024-01-05

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

2024-01-04

[Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy]

2024-01-03

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

2024-01-02

[Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue] [Tongue]

2024-01-01

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2023-12-31

[Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy] [Shy]

2023-12-30

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2023-12-29

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

2023-12-28

Play to earn some great rewards

2023-12-27

Come to support and play the game

2023-12-26

Come and play the game together

2023-12-25

Great game for great rewards

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188498617,"gmtCreate":1623457714539,"gmtModify":1704204064218,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188498617","repostId":"2142858202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142858202","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623453060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142858202?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142858202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the Uni","content":"<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142858202","content_text":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.\nMuch will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.\n\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.\nU.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.\nBut the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.\nWhile inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.\n\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.\n\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.\nThe Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.\nThe central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.\nWhat will be the hawkish sounds?\nFirst, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.\nBut this is only the most preliminary of steps.\nInstead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.\nIt won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.\nTo downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.\nSecondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.\nAt its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.\nThirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.\nDuring press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.\n\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.\nAt the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.\nWhen the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.\nNone of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.\nEven if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572491001882551","authorId":"3572491001882551","name":"PKLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd59d359589b55bc6c2e8e1c92a14009","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3572491001882551","idStr":"3572491001882551"},"content":"yeah. please reply","text":"yeah. please reply","html":"yeah. please reply"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098293189,"gmtCreate":1644130585155,"gmtModify":1676533893369,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098293189","repostId":"9091419855","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9091419855,"gmtCreate":1643929723832,"gmtModify":1676533871543,"author":{"id":"3579899622172789","authorId":"3579899622172789","name":"Tradehub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9e3264ca5e5b85380896a391061b13","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579899622172789","idStr":"3579899622172789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a> vs <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>there is a Class A and Class B, both are going to stock split in July 2022. Which is better for retail investors ? And what is the difference?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a> vs <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>there is a Class A and Class B, both are going to stock split in July 2022. Which is better for retail investors ? And what is the difference?","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ vs $Alphabet(GOOG)$there is a Class A and Class B, both are going to stock split in July 2022. Which is better for retail investors ? And what is the difference?","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/e8ffaaf2f683173e10770ee6cc8187e0","width":"1125","height":"1368"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091419855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153000717,"gmtCreate":1624982816439,"gmtModify":1703849552255,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153000717","repostId":"2147343850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260764901617896,"gmtCreate":1704673794045,"gmtModify":1704673798420,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260764901617896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121211668,"gmtCreate":1624465109954,"gmtModify":1703837687120,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121211668","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000428029,"gmtCreate":1640269161318,"gmtModify":1676533513433,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000428029","repostId":"2193146721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":237299702202472,"gmtCreate":1698970050260,"gmtModify":1698970055045,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Play and score. Join us","listText":"Play and score. Join us","text":"Play and score. Join us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/237299702202472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188498008,"gmtCreate":1623457702304,"gmtModify":1704204063073,"author":{"id":"3555064787466669","authorId":"3555064787466669","name":"LuckyLion","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a69edf26fa15174d445529f2a9e87d3","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555064787466669","idStr":"3555064787466669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow yeah","listText":"Wow yeah","text":"Wow yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188498008","repostId":"2142858202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142858202","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623453060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142858202?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142858202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the Uni","content":"<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142858202","content_text":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.\nMuch will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.\n\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.\nU.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.\nBut the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.\nWhile inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.\n\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.\n\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.\nThe Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.\nThe central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.\nWhat will be the hawkish sounds?\nFirst, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.\nBut this is only the most preliminary of steps.\nInstead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.\nIt won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.\nTo downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.\nSecondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.\nAt its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.\nThirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.\nDuring press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.\n\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.\nAt the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.\nWhen the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.\nNone of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.\nEven if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off 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