hhyw personal page - To The Moon

hhyw

hhyw

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03-10

$超微电脑(SMCI)$

2023-10-30

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2023-06-27

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2023-06-26

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2023-06-25

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2023-06-24

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-22

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-20

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2023-06-19

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2023-06-18

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2023-06-17

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2023-06-16

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2023-06-15

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2023-06-15

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2023-06-14

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2023-06-13

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Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation will make it more difficult for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000. In March, it increased by 166,000. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, market volatility may intensify in May-June\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States created 266,000 new non-farm jobs in April, the unemployment rate was 6.1%, and the labor force participation rate was 61.7%.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in January and April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</b>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 new non-farm jobs were created, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain; Professional and business services (\"temporary support services\") dropped sharply by 111,400 people, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to move to \"full-time\" workers. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement of labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000. Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. ADP created 742,000 new jobs in the private sector in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis. For April data, disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to use this as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government expenditure may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. Then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>The non-agricultural data in April and April was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market responded positively, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; The US Dollar Index Diving.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and related risks. Market volatility may intensify in May-June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the continued advancement of vaccination, it is somewhat unexpected that the employment data in April was weaker than that in March, which means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear.\" There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the shift in monetary policy may reach its highest point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"get together\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the deviation between employment and inflation will make it more difficult for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. PCE from April to May this year may reach 3%. However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>The non-agricultural data in April fell short of expectations. Which industries are lagging behind?</p><p>The U.S. non-agricultural data in April was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 new non-farm employment in April, compared with market expectations of close to 1 million. The initial value in March was 916,000, and the revised value was 770,000. The total number of non-farm employment in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation industries and \"part-time jobs\" dragged their feet, while leisure and hospitality industries performed well. Among the 266,000 new people in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half less than that in March, 48,000 came from the government department, about a quarter less than that in March, and the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000. In March, it increased by 166,000. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); Employment in the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of the international supply chain. The Federal Reserve has also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain before; And the professional and business services industry dropped by 79,000, of which \"temporary support services\" dropped by 111,400, but this may be a positive signal that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time\" workers. The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time jobs for economic reasons\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hotel industry increased significantly by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting that states in the United States have begun to relax restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 The preliminary non-farm payrolls value in April may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial non-agricultural value in April may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market. There are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, the margin of labor participation in the United States improved in April, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the epidemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new people entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily rise the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-farm payrolls\" and initial jobless claims is more optimistic. The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-agricultural data showed that 742,000 new jobs were created in the United States in April, higher than the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to fall to 498,000, the lowest since the epidemic, although the number was still 2.1 times the pre-epidemic level. In the week ending April 24, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-epidemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payrolls report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that disturbances such as supply chain disruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be used as a trend for \"linear extrapolation\".</p><p>3 The average hourly wage in April still grew rapidly month-on-month, and the \"countereffect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, while the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the epidemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees in the United States increase significantly higher than in previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural and non-managerial personnel rose from US $24.15 to US $25.16. If we look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Hours per week in April were unchanged from March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, spending approximately US $300 billion in March alone (Figure 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment\" and \"Fast Inflation\" in the United States, we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the vigorous fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 Non-agricultural data in April was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>The market is obviously happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite will increase marginally, and the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation expectation will further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7, the three major stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged intraday, then rebounded, and finally closed up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate fell by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); The US Dollar Index dived and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of American employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of employment in the United States and the risks it may bring.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the U.S. epidemic and the continued advancement of vaccination, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We have observed foreign media reports that U.S. residents' concerns about COVID-19 pandemic are still an important reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by severe weather in February this year, affected by supply chain disruptions in April, etc.). All these mean that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of the U.S. economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, the market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the non-farm payrolls data of 916,000 in March, the market predicts that non-farm payrolls will increase by 1 million in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that the market's expectations for the employment data in May are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach its highest point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If COVID-19 pandemic is the main factor hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"get together\" Recovery, then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the deviation between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market. U.S. stocks and other risky assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserves vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109775678,"gmtCreate":1619736671894,"gmtModify":1704271452297,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5151","listText":"5151","text":"5151","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109775678","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the May Day stock market arrangement, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>British stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British festival Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday) and open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5, and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish all the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the May Day stock market arrangement, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>British stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British festival Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday) and open as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5, and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish all the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936000760,"gmtCreate":1662681376550,"gmtModify":1676537115220,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936000760","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043285605,"gmtCreate":1655939999907,"gmtModify":1676535734142,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043285605","repostId":"1165129643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165129643","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655911360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165129643?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 23:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Shushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165129643","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major provider of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing students with integrated solutions for intelligent learning (ToC) and schools with integrated solutions for intelligent campus (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, Shushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, Shushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShushulang Education Holdings Limited passed listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Shushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major provider of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing students with integrated solutions for intelligent learning (ToC) and schools with integrated solutions for intelligent campus (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, Shushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, Shushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f45e630f2b8423c1283fe921facb38e","relate_stocks":{"02385":"读书郎"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165129643","content_text":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，致力于为学生提供智慧学习一体化解决方案（ToC），为学校提供智慧校园一体化解决方案（ToB/G）。截至最后实际可行日期，读书郎产品主要有AI学生平板、电话手表等为主的智慧学习硬件、读书郎智慧校园解决方案，并提供AI 和大数据系统、教育内容研发和服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90098":0.9,"02385":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089838779,"gmtCreate":1649980626357,"gmtModify":1676534619678,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$upup","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b0344e7501c0a0f6f4504d115e170f1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089838779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019664933,"gmtCreate":1648596790235,"gmtModify":1676534359245,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$up up up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/18a58fa4766337f4281fecc6bcab4ffe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019664933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031094708,"gmtCreate":1646377360857,"gmtModify":1676534123925,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12000🙄🙄","listText":"12000🙄🙄","text":"12000🙄🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031094708","repostId":"2216455949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216455949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646374855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216455949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 14:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Copper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216455949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛指出，作为全球最大铜生产国之一，俄罗斯铜出口渠道在制裁后将严重受限；考虑到目前明显的供应紧缺环境，铜库存有望进一步下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of US $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs said Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, with annual refined copper output of nearly 1 million tons, accounting for 7% of supply excluding China, and is the second largest exporter of refined copper. So far, copper prices have responded relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be miscalculated.</p><p>After European and American countries introduce sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and copper inventories are expected to face a further decline (after Russian exports are restricted), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventories, inventories in the global copper market at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, and room for relief was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit this year will reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs inferred that global visible inventories will fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous news articles pointed out that the invisible inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's copper spot inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total at the end of November was only 18,945 tons. The lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium phenomenon in the copper market since last October, and since there has been no sharp rise, the market has little sign of this. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist and the spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Copper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCopper inventories are extremely low, Goldman Sachs said copper prices are expected to break through $12,000!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 14:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of US $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs said Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, with annual refined copper output of nearly 1 million tons, accounting for 7% of supply excluding China, and is the second largest exporter of refined copper. So far, copper prices have responded relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be miscalculated.</p><p>After European and American countries introduce sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and copper inventories are expected to face a further decline (after Russian exports are restricted), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventories, inventories in the global copper market at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, and room for relief was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit this year will reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs inferred that global visible inventories will fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous news articles pointed out that the invisible inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's copper spot inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total at the end of November was only 18,945 tons. The lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium phenomenon in the copper market since last October, and since there has been no sharp rise, the market has little sign of this. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist and the spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216455949","content_text":"“商品旗手”高盛继续唱多铜价，称市场“误判”俄罗斯供应风险，铜价未来12个月将上探每吨12000美元的纪录高位。高盛表示，俄罗斯是全球最大的铜生产国之一，年精炼铜产量接近100万吨，占除中国外供应的7%，并且是第二大精炼铜出口国。到目前为止，铜价对俄乌冲突升级造成的供应紧缺风险反应相对温和，这种市场反应可能存在误判。在欧美各国开启制裁措施后，俄罗斯的出口渠道将严重受限。目前市场处于明显的供应紧缺环境，（在俄罗斯出口受限后）铜库存有望面临进一步下降，这将进一步推高铜价。在铜库存方面，今年伊始全球铜市场的库存远低于历史水平，缓解空间十分有限。一季度后，从历史市场供给情况来看，也不足以解决2022年的赤字问题，高盛此前预计今年的供需赤字将达到19.7万吨。这种情况持续得越久年底出现极端稀缺的风险越高。高盛使用季节标准和其全年赤字的库存路径推断得出，全球可见库存将跌至15万吨以下。此前见闻文章指出，全球三大期货交易所之一伦敦金属交易所隐形库存消失得飞快，2021年前11个月，LME的铜现货库存减少了11.5万吨，11月底的总量只有18945吨，是该交易所自2020年2月开始发布该数据以来的最低水平。在如此紧张的供应环境下，铜现货升水现象越来越严重。通常情况下，市场供需出现不匹配时，市场就会进入现货溢价状态，以鼓励库存持有者将商品推向市场。事实上，自去年10月以来，铜市场就一直存在现货溢价现象，由于没有出现大幅的上涨，市场几乎没有迹象表明这一点。高盛预计，现货溢价将持续存在，铜现货和期货的价差将不断扩大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004144023,"gmtCreate":1642548286837,"gmtModify":1676533720666,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment","listText":"Like &amp; comment","text":"Like & comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004144023","repostId":"1145796847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145796847","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1642462760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145796847?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-18 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The biggest risk outside the Fed: U.S. stock earnings season is a bit \"difficult\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145796847","media":"Wind万得","summary":"在2021年的后端，增长可能有点慢，所以收益可能会比原来增速放缓。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As earnings season gets underway, investors will shift their focus from monetary policy to looking for signs of easing pressure on corporate profits and other corporate metrics, after economic uncertainty and concerns surrounding the pace of the Fed's rate hike put a lot of pressure on markets at the start of the new year.</p><p>Tech stocks have taken a hit over the past week, and on the surface, market sentiment isn't that bad. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%, better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 0.9% decline and matching the S&P 500's 0.3% decline.</p><p>However, the sell-off of the most expensive speculative stocks continues.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>The Tech-Software ETF fell 1.6% in the past week, and Peloton Interactive, an interactive fitness platform that surged in the early stage of the epidemic, fell 12%, losing its position in the Nasdaq 100 index.</p><p>Now, investors know what to blame for the declines in these tech stocks. With inflation soaring, the Federal Reserve is already preparing for a massive monetary policy shift. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the fed funds futures market expects an 86% probability of a rate hike at the March meeting and at least two, if not three, rate hike for the rest of the year. That's bad news for speculative growth stocks, which have been hit hardest by rising interest rates.</p><p>However, if interest rate expectations have peaked for now, that could mean tech stocks will look attractive again, if only before investors are forced to readjust to tougher monetary policy. Nordea strategist Sebastien Galy wrote: \"What we are likely to see is an increase in bottom-hunting activity in tech stocks in the coming days, as the path of interest rates in the coming weeks is unlikely to increase any more. The recent sharp drop is only a sign of what will happen to tech stocks in a year.\"</p><p>It's been a long process and now investors have earnings season to distract them ahead of the Fed's next interest rate decision. However, the start of this earnings season is not ideal:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell more than 6% on Friday, although the company had previously said that its earnings forecast had improved after higher fees, suggesting that perhaps too much good news has been factored into the share price.</p><p>In addition, data released last Friday showed that U.S. retail sales fell by 1.9% in December, below the forecast of a 0.1% decline. This may not have exceeded investor expectations, with a temporary decline caused by the Omicron variant and early holiday shopping. But it also suggests that fundamentals have softened in the fourth quarter, which could have an impact on earnings.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>\"At the back end of 2021, growth may be a little slower, so earnings may be slower than they were,\" said Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation at the Investment Institute.</p><p>Investors had better hope that corporate earnings stay. Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote:<b>While the threat of a Fed rate hike and the accompanying rise in bond yields may be a concern, a disappointing earnings season could be a bigger problem for global stocks</b>。 \"Broadly disappointing earnings could lead to a degree of broadening of downside breadth and persistence of a sell order that was not triggered by rising bond yields,\" he explained.</p><p>Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC, said that in what is usually a key fourth-quarter performance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>Of the energy and industrial sectors, underlying fundamentals may lack the strength to drive the market this earnings season.</p><p>She said: \"Investors need to start setting their expectations a little lower. Not necessarily bearish, but we do think that not only in the future earnings season, but moderate growth on the economic front will be a dominant theme.\"</p><p>Omar Aguilar, chief executive officer and chief information officer of Schwab Asset Management, said the coming quarters are likely to be a better reflection of Omicron's losses to corporate earnings than the fourth quarter numbers. However, he also pointed out: \"We will have a very solid earnings season. Earnings are expected to remain very strong, but growth will continue to decelerate. The company continues to generate free cash flow and generate business, but we will hear a lot about supply chain disruptions, and the cost-raising narrative.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The biggest risk outside the Fed: U.S. stock earnings season is a bit \"difficult\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe biggest risk outside the Fed: U.S. stock earnings season is a bit \"difficult\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-18 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As earnings season gets underway, investors will shift their focus from monetary policy to looking for signs of easing pressure on corporate profits and other corporate metrics, after economic uncertainty and concerns surrounding the pace of the Fed's rate hike put a lot of pressure on markets at the start of the new year.</p><p>Tech stocks have taken a hit over the past week, and on the surface, market sentiment isn't that bad. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%, better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 0.9% decline and matching the S&P 500's 0.3% decline.</p><p>However, the sell-off of the most expensive speculative stocks continues.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>The Tech-Software ETF fell 1.6% in the past week, and Peloton Interactive, an interactive fitness platform that surged in the early stage of the epidemic, fell 12%, losing its position in the Nasdaq 100 index.</p><p>Now, investors know what to blame for the declines in these tech stocks. With inflation soaring, the Federal Reserve is already preparing for a massive monetary policy shift. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the fed funds futures market expects an 86% probability of a rate hike at the March meeting and at least two, if not three, rate hike for the rest of the year. That's bad news for speculative growth stocks, which have been hit hardest by rising interest rates.</p><p>However, if interest rate expectations have peaked for now, that could mean tech stocks will look attractive again, if only before investors are forced to readjust to tougher monetary policy. Nordea strategist Sebastien Galy wrote: \"What we are likely to see is an increase in bottom-hunting activity in tech stocks in the coming days, as the path of interest rates in the coming weeks is unlikely to increase any more. The recent sharp drop is only a sign of what will happen to tech stocks in a year.\"</p><p>It's been a long process and now investors have earnings season to distract them ahead of the Fed's next interest rate decision. However, the start of this earnings season is not ideal:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell more than 6% on Friday, although the company had previously said that its earnings forecast had improved after higher fees, suggesting that perhaps too much good news has been factored into the share price.</p><p>In addition, data released last Friday showed that U.S. retail sales fell by 1.9% in December, below the forecast of a 0.1% decline. This may not have exceeded investor expectations, with a temporary decline caused by the Omicron variant and early holiday shopping. But it also suggests that fundamentals have softened in the fourth quarter, which could have an impact on earnings.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>\"At the back end of 2021, growth may be a little slower, so earnings may be slower than they were,\" said Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation at the Investment Institute.</p><p>Investors had better hope that corporate earnings stay. Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote:<b>While the threat of a Fed rate hike and the accompanying rise in bond yields may be a concern, a disappointing earnings season could be a bigger problem for global stocks</b>。 \"Broadly disappointing earnings could lead to a degree of broadening of downside breadth and persistence of a sell order that was not triggered by rising bond yields,\" he explained.</p><p>Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC, said that in what is usually a key fourth-quarter performance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>Of the energy and industrial sectors, underlying fundamentals may lack the strength to drive the market this earnings season.</p><p>She said: \"Investors need to start setting their expectations a little lower. Not necessarily bearish, but we do think that not only in the future earnings season, but moderate growth on the economic front will be a dominant theme.\"</p><p>Omar Aguilar, chief executive officer and chief information officer of Schwab Asset Management, said the coming quarters are likely to be a better reflection of Omicron's losses to corporate earnings than the fourth quarter numbers. However, he also pointed out: \"We will have a very solid earnings season. Earnings are expected to remain very strong, but growth will continue to decelerate. The company continues to generate free cash flow and generate business, but we will hear a lot about supply chain disruptions, and the cost-raising narrative.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145796847","content_text":"随着财报季的到来，投资者将把注意力从货币政策转移到寻找公司利润和其他企业指标的压力缓解迹象上，此前经济不确定性和围绕美联储加息步伐的担忧在新年伊始给市场带来了很大压力。过去一周科技股遭受打击，从表面上看，市场情绪并不是那么糟糕。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%，好于道琼斯工业指数0.9%的跌幅，与标准普尔500指数0.3%的跌幅相当。然而，最昂贵的投机性股票的抛售仍在继续。iShares Tech-Software ETF在过去一周下滑了1.6%，疫情前期大涨的互动健身平台Peloton Interactive下跌了12%，失去了在纳斯达克100指数中的位置。现在，投资者都知道这些科技股的下滑该归咎于什么。随着通货膨胀的飙升，美联储已经为大规模的货币政策转变做准备。根据CME FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货市场预期3月会议上加息的概率为86%，在今年剩下的时间里至少会有两次，甚至三次加息。这对投机性成长股来说是个坏消息，这些股票受利率上升的冲击最大。然而，如果利率预期目前已经达到顶峰，这可能意味着科技股将再次看起来很有吸引力，哪怕只是在投资者被迫重新适应更严格的货币政策之前。Nordea策略师Sebastien Galy写道：“我们可能看到的是未来几天科技股的抄底活动增加，因为未来几周利率的路径不太可能再增加。最近的大跌只是预示着一年后科技股会发生什么。”这是一个漫长的过程，在美联储下一次利率决议之前，现在投资者有财报季来分散他们的注意力。不过，本轮财报季的开端并不理想：摩根大通上周五下挫逾6%，尽管该公司此前已表示费用上涨后盈利预测有所提升，这表明也许有太多的好消息已经被计入股价。此外，上周五公布的数据显示，美国12月零售销售数据下降了1.9%，低于预测的下降0.1%。这可能没有超出投资者预料，由Omicron变异和早期假日购物造成了暂时性下降。但它也表明，第四季度的基本面有所疲软，这可能会对收益产生影响。富国银行投资研究所全球资产配置主管Tracie McMillion说：“在2021年的后端，增长可能有点慢，所以收益可能会比原来增速放缓。”投资者最好希望企业盈利能够维持下去。Ned Davis Research的首席全球投资策略师Tim Hayes写道：虽然美联储加息的威胁以及随之而来的债券收益率上升可能令人担忧，但令人失望的财报季可能是全球股市的一个更大的问题。他解释说：“广泛令人失望的盈利可能会导致一定程度的下跌广度扩大和卖盘持续，而这并不是由债券收益率上升引发的。”PNC首席投资官阿曼达阿加提(Amanda Agati)表示，在通常作为第四季度业绩关键驱动力的能源和工业板块，潜在的基本面可能缺乏力量来推动这个盈利季的市场。她说：“投资者需要开始把他们的期望值定得低一点。不一定是看跌，但我们确实认为，不仅是未来的财报季，经济方面的适度增长将成为一个主导主题。”施瓦布资产管理公司首席执行官兼首席信息官奥马尔阿吉拉尔(Omar Aguilar)表示，未来几个季度可能比第四季度的数字更能反映Omicron给企业盈利带来的损失。不过他同时指出：“我们将有一个非常稳健的盈利季节，预计收益仍非常强劲，但增长将继续减速。公司继续产生自由现金流和产生业务，但我们将听到很多关于供应链中断，以及成本提高的叙事。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319171817,"gmtCreate":1611561210239,"gmtModify":1704860710923,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baidu Huat ya","listText":"Baidu Huat ya","text":"Baidu Huat 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032490089","repostId":"2219759937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219759937","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647405785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219759937?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-16 12:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Historic Night: Fed rate hike, Russian Default?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219759937","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：今夜无人入眠：美联储是加25基点还是50基点？俄罗斯会选择违约吗？今晚注定是不平静的，两大重磅事件或将同时发生，撼动全球金融界。首先在美东时间下午两点，美联储或将进行2018年12月以来的首次加","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: No one sleeps tonight: Will the Fed add 25 basis points or 50 basis points? Will Russia choose to default? Tonight is destined to be unsettled, and two major events may happen at the same time, shaking the global financial community.</p><p>First, at 2pm Eastern Time,<b>The Fed may conduct its first rate hike since December 2018</b>, raising Federal Funds rate from 0% since the pandemic to 0.25%.</p><p>And as the Federal Reserve is trying to control the CPI index, which has hit a 40-year high, and the PPI index, which has reached a record double-digit, this rate hike will kick off many subsequent rate hike.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Russia has two dollar bonds due on Wednesday, March 16</b>At that time, Russia needs to pay bond coupons, and it is not allowed to pay in rubles or other currencies, totaling approximately US $117 million.</p><p>But last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree prohibiting any payment of foreign debt except in rubles.</p><p>According to CCTV news reports, on March 14, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said,<b>Western countries attempt to artificially create Russia's default by freezing Russia's foreign exchange reserves, but Russia has reserve funds to fulfill its obligations related to national debt.</b></p><p>The possible outcome now is,<b>Once the 30-day grace period has passed, that is, payments are not completed by April 15, then Russia may technically default on two regular interest payments on the said dollar bonds and constitute a default.</b></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve has been basically confirmed, but it is not yet known whether Russia will default on its debt. Global markets have tightened their heartstrings.</p><p><b>The Fed's first rate hike since 2018 opened the door to subsequent tightening?</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has previously stated in Congress that he supports supporting rate hike by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in March, and that if inflation unexpectedly rises or remains high, he is willing to rate hike more than 25 basis points at future meetings.</p><p>There are a lot of doubts about this in the market. Why is it only 25 basis points?</p><p><b>Because the U.S. financial system has never been so highly financialized, any \"rushed\" rate hike will lead to a complete collapse of risky assets.</b></p><p>And the Federal Reserve will also update the Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP),<b>This shows that inflation will remain higher for a longer period of time and lead to an increase of 100-125 basis points each year in 2022 and 2023.</b>In contrast, the market has been more hawkish, and has priced rate hike in 2022 seven times, with a 15% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike on Wednesday.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Powell will provide limited guidance on rate hike's prospects, according to Ralf Preusser: He will<b>Emphasize the elevated uncertainty, as well as the reliance on data, and reserve the right to rate hike 50 basis points if needed.</b></p><p><b>The situation between Russia and Ukraine will also be the key to determining whether rate hike will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points next.</b>At the same time, due to geopolitical risks,<b>The Federal Reserve may also cut its economic growth forecast.</b></p><p>Because geopolitical tensions have pushed up energy prices, tightened financial conditions, and also reduced growth prospects for overseas countries, this means that inflation in the United States is likely to continue to rise while economic growth will be slower.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In this regard,<b>They suspect that the FOMC meeting will be reluctant to consider rate hike 50 basis points until the economic downside risks posed by the Russia-Ukraine situation to the world are reduced, but will also avoid committing to a specific pace of tightening in its statement.</b></p><p><b>Is Russia's US $150 billion foreign debt default approaching?</b></p><p>Russia's process of paying US $117 million in bond interest is about to start, which is a critical moment for Russian debt holders.</p><p>The Russian government has stated that,<b>All debts will be paid. The economic sanctions imposed on them by the West do not allow them to settle in dollars, so they will pay in rubles.</b></p><p><b>However, Fitch said that if Russia pays coupons on two US dollar bonds due Wednesday in rubles, it will constitute a sovereign default after the expiration of a grace period.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, currently the Russian government and Gazprom, Lukoil and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBER.UK\">Savings Bank of the Russian Federation</a>Russian companies such as (Sberbank) owe $150 billion in dollar bonds, and if they don't pay when they mature, or pay in rubles instead of dollars, the countdown to debt default will begin.</p><p>Will Russia really default on its sovereign debt?</p><p>The Financial Times reported that the Russian Ministry of Finance said on Monday that it would pay normally, but added that,<b>The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia's central bank may limit its capabilities.</b></p><p>As Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, the economic sanctions imposed earlier this month<b>Is plunging Russia into an \"artificial default\".</b></p><p>Will a debt default endanger the global financial system?</p><p>IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with CBS<b>\"None at the moment\".</b>She believes that,<b>The global banking system's exposure to Russia is \"system-independent\".</b></p><p>She also added that while the International Monetary Fund will \"inevitably\" downgrade Russia's economic growth outlook for 2022, it \"will still be positive growth\".</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Historic Night: Fed rate hike, Russian Default?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistoric Night: Fed rate hike, Russian Default?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-16 12:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: No one sleeps tonight: Will the Fed add 25 basis points or 50 basis points? Will Russia choose to default? Tonight is destined to be unsettled, and two major events may happen at the same time, shaking the global financial community.</p><p>First, at 2pm Eastern Time,<b>The Fed may conduct its first rate hike since December 2018</b>, raising Federal Funds rate from 0% since the pandemic to 0.25%.</p><p>And as the Federal Reserve is trying to control the CPI index, which has hit a 40-year high, and the PPI index, which has reached a record double-digit, this rate hike will kick off many subsequent rate hike.</p><p>At the same time,<b>Russia has two dollar bonds due on Wednesday, March 16</b>At that time, Russia needs to pay bond coupons, and it is not allowed to pay in rubles or other currencies, totaling approximately US $117 million.</p><p>But last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree prohibiting any payment of foreign debt except in rubles.</p><p>According to CCTV news reports, on March 14, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said,<b>Western countries attempt to artificially create Russia's default by freezing Russia's foreign exchange reserves, but Russia has reserve funds to fulfill its obligations related to national debt.</b></p><p>The possible outcome now is,<b>Once the 30-day grace period has passed, that is, payments are not completed by April 15, then Russia may technically default on two regular interest payments on the said dollar bonds and constitute a default.</b></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve has been basically confirmed, but it is not yet known whether Russia will default on its debt. Global markets have tightened their heartstrings.</p><p><b>The Fed's first rate hike since 2018 opened the door to subsequent tightening?</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has previously stated in Congress that he supports supporting rate hike by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in March, and that if inflation unexpectedly rises or remains high, he is willing to rate hike more than 25 basis points at future meetings.</p><p>There are a lot of doubts about this in the market. Why is it only 25 basis points?</p><p><b>Because the U.S. financial system has never been so highly financialized, any \"rushed\" rate hike will lead to a complete collapse of risky assets.</b></p><p>And the Federal Reserve will also update the Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP),<b>This shows that inflation will remain higher for a longer period of time and lead to an increase of 100-125 basis points each year in 2022 and 2023.</b>In contrast, the market has been more hawkish, and has priced rate hike in 2022 seven times, with a 15% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike on Wednesday.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Powell will provide limited guidance on rate hike's prospects, according to Ralf Preusser: He will<b>Emphasize the elevated uncertainty, as well as the reliance on data, and reserve the right to rate hike 50 basis points if needed.</b></p><p><b>The situation between Russia and Ukraine will also be the key to determining whether rate hike will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points next.</b>At the same time, due to geopolitical risks,<b>The Federal Reserve may also cut its economic growth forecast.</b></p><p>Because geopolitical tensions have pushed up energy prices, tightened financial conditions, and also reduced growth prospects for overseas countries, this means that inflation in the United States is likely to continue to rise while economic growth will be slower.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In this regard,<b>They suspect that the FOMC meeting will be reluctant to consider rate hike 50 basis points until the economic downside risks posed by the Russia-Ukraine situation to the world are reduced, but will also avoid committing to a specific pace of tightening in its statement.</b></p><p><b>Is Russia's US $150 billion foreign debt default approaching?</b></p><p>Russia's process of paying US $117 million in bond interest is about to start, which is a critical moment for Russian debt holders.</p><p>The Russian government has stated that,<b>All debts will be paid. The economic sanctions imposed on them by the West do not allow them to settle in dollars, so they will pay in rubles.</b></p><p><b>However, Fitch said that if Russia pays coupons on two US dollar bonds due Wednesday in rubles, it will constitute a sovereign default after the expiration of a grace period.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, currently the Russian government and Gazprom, Lukoil and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBER.UK\">Savings Bank of the Russian Federation</a>Russian companies such as (Sberbank) owe $150 billion in dollar bonds, and if they don't pay when they mature, or pay in rubles instead of dollars, the countdown to debt default will begin.</p><p>Will Russia really default on its sovereign debt?</p><p>The Financial Times reported that the Russian Ministry of Finance said on Monday that it would pay normally, but added that,<b>The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia's central bank may limit its capabilities.</b></p><p>As Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, the economic sanctions imposed earlier this month<b>Is plunging Russia into an \"artificial default\".</b></p><p>Will a debt default endanger the global financial system?</p><p>IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with CBS<b>\"None at the moment\".</b>She believes that,<b>The global banking system's exposure to Russia is \"system-independent\".</b></p><p>She also added that while the International Monetary Fund will \"inevitably\" downgrade Russia's economic growth outlook for 2022, it \"will still be positive growth\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654376\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654376","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219759937","content_text":"摘要：今夜无人入眠：美联储是加25基点还是50基点？俄罗斯会选择违约吗？今晚注定是不平静的，两大重磅事件或将同时发生，撼动全球金融界。首先在美东时间下午两点，美联储或将进行2018年12月以来的首次加息，将联邦基金利率从疫情大流行以来的0%提升至0.25%。并且由于美联储正在努力控制创40年高位的CPI指数以及达到创纪录两位数的PPI指数，所以此次加息将为后续多次加息拉开序幕。与此同时，俄罗斯有两只美元债券将于3月16日本周三到期，届时俄方需要支付债券息票，而且不允许以卢布或其他货币进行支付，总额约为1.17亿美元。但是上周俄罗斯总统普京已经颁布一项法令，禁止以除卢布之外的任何方式支付外债。此前据央视新闻报道，3月14日俄罗斯财政部长西卢安诺夫表示，西方国家企图通过冻结俄罗斯外汇储备的做法人为制造俄罗斯的违约行为，但俄方拥有备用资金用于履行与国家债务有关的义务。现在可能出现的结果是，一旦30天的宽限期过去，即没有在4月15日之前完成支付，那么俄罗斯可能会在技术上拖欠上述美元债券的两次定期利息支付并构成违约。美联储开启加息已经基本确定，而俄罗斯是否会出现债务违约还尚未可知，全球市场都已经绷紧了心弦。2018年来美联储首次加息拉开后续紧缩大门？此前美联储主席鲍威尔曾在国会表示，他支持在3月的FOMC会议上支持加息25个基点，并且如果通胀意外上行或者持续居高不下，他愿意在未来的会议上加息25个基点以上。市场对此传出不少疑惑的声音，为什么只有25个基点？因为美国金融体系从未如此高度金融化，任何“仓促”的加息都将导致风险资产彻底崩溃。并且美联储还将更新经济预测摘要 (SEP)，以此说明通胀将在更长时间内保持较高水平，并导致在2022年和2023年每年加100-125个基点。相比之下，市场已经表现的更为鹰派，目前已经对2022年加息7次定价，预计周三加息50个基点的可能性为15%。根据美国银行的Ralf Preusser的说法，鲍威尔将对加息前景提供有限的指导：他将强调不确定性的升高，以及对数据的依赖性，并在需要时保留加息50个基点的权利。俄乌局势也将成为决定接下来加息25个基点还是50个基点的关键。同时由于地缘政治风险，美联储也可能会下调经济增长预期。因为地缘紧张局势推高了能源价格，收紧了金融环境，并且还降低了海外国家的增长前景，所以这意味着美国的通货膨胀率可能会继续走高，而经济增长速度会走低。高盛对此表示，他们怀疑在俄乌局势对全球造成的经济下行风险降低之前，FOMC会议将不愿考虑加息50个基点，但也将避免在其声明中承诺特定的紧缩步伐。俄罗斯1500亿美元外债违约或将临近？俄罗斯支付1.17亿美元债券利息的程序即将启动，对于俄债持有人来说，这是一个关键时刻。俄罗斯政府已经表示，所有的债务都将得到偿付。西方对其实施的经济制裁不允许他们以美元结算，就会用卢布进行支付。但惠誉对此表示，如果俄罗斯以卢布支付周三到期的两笔美元债券票息，将在一个宽限期届满后构成主权违约。据彭博社报道，目前俄罗斯政府和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)、卢克石油(Lukoil) 和俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank) 等俄罗斯公司所欠的美元债券达到1500亿美元，如果到期不支付，或者以卢布而不是美元支付，债务违约就会开始倒计时。俄罗斯是否真的会出现主权债务违约？英国《金融时报》报道称，俄罗斯财政部已于周一表示将正常偿付，但同时也补充道，西方国家对俄罗斯央行实施的制裁可能会限制其能力。正如俄财政部长Anton Siluanov所表示的，本月早些时候实施的这些经济制裁正在使俄罗斯陷入“人为违约”。一旦出现债务违约是否会危及全球金融体系？国际货币基金组织总裁Kristalina Georgieva在接受CBS采访时曾表示“目前没有”。她对此认为，全球银行体系在俄罗斯的风险敞口“与系统无关”。她还补充道，虽然国际货币基金组织将“不可避免地”下调俄罗斯2022年的经济增长前景，但“仍将是正增长”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030089224,"gmtCreate":1645578854595,"gmtModify":1676534042014,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030089224","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362201066,"gmtCreate":1614639528955,"gmtModify":1704773315841,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom Zoom?","listText":"Zoom Zoom?","text":"Zoom 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