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2024-11-12

$蔚来(NIO)$ onvo 820

2024-11-08

You can short it! Good luck!

@3nn:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310

2024-04-24

Short Tesla!!!

Tesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours

2022-01-28

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> onvo 820","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> onvo 820","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ onvo 820","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cee105913f176b6b7b428297cd41a51e","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370248768200856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569550688921055","authorId":"3569550688921055","name":"Edwin Tapay","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac50c357bc439bfea99fe2bcb4c3092","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569550688921055","authorIdStr":"3569550688921055"},"content":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?","text":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?","html":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368679375663264,"gmtCreate":1731047198515,"gmtModify":1731047202186,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567155449884539","authorIdStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You can short it! Good luck!","listText":"You can short it! Good luck!","text":"You can short it! Good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368679375663264","repostId":"368640799379744","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368640799379744,"gmtCreate":1731041741820,"gmtModify":1731041745345,"author":{"id":"3573976216768090","authorId":"3573976216768090","name":"3nn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303b8f037330070d95adf2f11d86d23a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573976216768090","authorIdStr":"3573976216768090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368640799379744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298737004118032,"gmtCreate":1713965755276,"gmtModify":1713965758898,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567155449884539","authorIdStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short Tesla!!!","listText":"Short Tesla!!!","text":"Short Tesla!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298737004118032","repostId":"1169208393","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169208393","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1713905982,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169208393?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-24 04:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169208393","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713428","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Tesla's revenue and earnings were worse than expected for three consecutive quarters. Revenue fell year-on-year for the first time in four years and the largest decline in twelve years. Profits were halved, and free cash flow was negative for the first time since the epidemic. The company reiterated its pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but said that it will accelerate the launch of cheaper models and increase AI investment as soon as early next year. More details will be introduced on August 8, and it also expects to sell humanoid robots before the end of next year.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcdba04953a4886412483cda59ec6f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, April 23, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market value, released its financial report for the first quarter of 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although both revenue and earnings were lower than expected, and maintained the guidance for \"significantly lower\" vehicle production/delivery growth in 2024, the company said it would accelerate the launch of cheaper and affordable models, and canceled the research and development of Model 2 a few days ago. Media reports, the stock price soared 8% after hours.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the plan for an affordable Tesla Model 2 is seen as the key to realizing Musk's sales growth ambitions. He said in 2020 that Tesla hopes to sell 20 million vehicles by 2030, twice the current sales of Toyota, the world's largest automaker.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The earnings call will cause its after-hours stock price to rise further and the overall rise will exceed 13%.</strong>Musk said that it is expected that the cheap model will be put on the market in early 2025, and does not even rule out advancing it to late 2024:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"That will be quite fast. The next generation product line will be built on the existing production line and will not require the construction of new factories.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk also released an optimistic tone, saying that the humanoid robot Optimus Humanoid Robot is expected to be sold by the end of 2025.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7503002bd5939f4b2be95c4942cb1471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"493\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla closed up 1.8% on Tuesday, and fell 3.4% to $142.05 on Monday, setting a new 15-month low since January 2023. It has fallen nearly 19% during the seven-day losing streak, and has fallen nearly 42% this year. It is the second deepest decline among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. The stock price fell 29% in the first quarter, the largest drop since the end of 2022 and the third largest quarterly drop since the company's IPO in 2010.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before the earnings report was released, Wall Street analysts had a consensus rating of \"neutral\" on Tesla, with a target stock price of $175.67, which is still 21% higher than the current stock price. Eleven of them rated \"buy\", three recommended \"hold\" and four recommended \"sell\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_238651762\">Tesla's revenue and earnings fell short of expectations for three consecutive quarters, with revenue hitting the biggest drop in 12 years and profit cut in half</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Financial report shows that Tesla's first quarter revenue fell year-on-year<strong><em>9</em></strong>% to US $21.3 billion, lower than market expectations of US $22.3 billion. It is not only the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since COVID-19 pandemic disrupted operations in the second quarter of 2020, but also the largest decline since 2012, compared with US $25.17 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. A quarter-on-quarter decline of more than 15%, mainly due to the slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts said that the decline in revenue this time was even greater than the company's decline in 2020, which was attributed to the production interruption caused by the epidemic.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a24106f48cfbf465c0dd1e734ad0d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tesla's profit side continues to be squeezed by price reduction strategies and investment in AI</strong>。 Net profit was cut in half, falling 55% year-on-year to US $1.13 billion. The market originally expected US $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS in the first quarter was earnings per share of US $0.45, lower than analysts' expectations of US $0.52, showing a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline from US $0.71 in the previous quarter and US $0.85 in the same period last year. Operating profit for the quarter fell 56% year-on-year to nearly US $1.2 billion, and operating profit margin further dropped to 5.5% from 8.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the company's capital expenditures increased to $2.77 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34%.<strong>Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $2.5 billion,</strong>This resulted in a $2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter decrease in cash and its equivalents and investments, mainly due to an increase in inventory of $2.7 billion in the quarter and capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure of $1 billion, which will continue to increase core AI infrastructure in the coming months infrastructure capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0744a17c254a542861400a79d68cc8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, some people predicted that its gross profit margin would reach the lowest level in seven years in the first quarter since the \"civilian magic car\" Model 3 was put into production in early 2017. Both Barclays and UBS see free cash flow turning \"slightly negative\", which will be the company's first quarter of negative cash since early 2020, or at a critical moment for investing heavily in robotaxis and cheaper new electric vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1faa69a087ac7af76710fedc6bca5ab9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first quarter, Tesla's auto business revenue fell 13% year-on-year to $17.34 billion. The revenue of the energy production and storage segment increased by 7% year-on-year to US $1.64 billion, and the gross profit, which surged 140% year-on-year, both hit record highs, and the energy storage deployment hit another record to 4.1 GWh; Services and other revenues increased 25% year over year to $2.29 billion.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4083894582\">Reiterates pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but says it will accelerate the launch of cheaper new models</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the performance guidance, Tesla reiterated that it is \"currently in (a plateau period) between two major growth waves\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The first wave of growth began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and we believe the next wave of growth will be triggered by advancements in autonomous driving and the launch of new products, including products built on our next-generation vehicle platform. The future is not only electric, but autonomous.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2024, our vehicle sales growth rate is likely to be significantly lower than the growth rate in 2023, as we work on launching next-generation vehicles and other products. Our energy generation and storage business revenue growth rate will outpace our automotive business this year. \"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>It is worth noting that Tesla still maintains its commitment to start production of \"new models\" in the second half of 2025</strong>, and said that it will accelerate the launch of more affordable models and dedicated robot taxis Robotaxi products. The above-mentioned narrative of \"more suitable new models\" directly \"slaps in the face\" a few days ago, some media reported that Tesla had given up research and development of Model 2 with a starting price of less than US $30,000.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the financial report statement, the average selling price of vehicles fell in the first quarter, investment in artificial intelligence, battery upgrades and other research and development projects led to an increase in operating expenses, as well as the cost of increasing production of Cybertruck electric pickup trucks and the decline in vehicle deliveries resulted in sluggish operating profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the reduction of raw materials, freight and tariffs is causing the unit cost of each vehicle to continue to decline quarter by quarter. The launch of the Autopark function in North America has also increased the revenue recognition of the FSD intelligent assisted driving system year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The financial report also revealed that the amount of AI training calculations increased by more than 130% in the first quarter. In April, more than 1,000 Cybertrucks were produced in a single week. Model Y production in Texas rose to a record high, and unit sales costs fell to a record low.<strong>The company expects demand in the Chinese market to usually improve throughout the year. \"When we enter new markets such as Chile, many of these products will be supplied by the Shanghai Gigafactory.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that Tesla invested US $1 billion in AI computing in the first three months of this year, making it more like an AI company than a car company.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab10e83f1dc48b8a0413af1c42fc284\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"125\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3410713195\">Why is it important?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global price cuts over the weekend added to growing concerns among investors, following weak first-quarter deliveries, layoffs and a full Cybertruck recall. With the decline of investor sentiment and the weakening of the company's financial situation, people urgently need to know the latest situation of Tesla's current and future prospects. It can be said that this financial report is likely to be a \"crossroads\" that determines Tesla's recent fate.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The \"big bull\" brokerage Wedbush bluntly said,<strong>Tuesday's earnings report and conference call are \"critical moments\" for both Tesla and CEO Musk, even one of the most important moments in the company's history, and will have a huge impact on the stock price</strong>。 After a chaotic quarter, Tesla needs to appease investors and take the opportunity to ensure that it has only encountered an \"unexpected speed bump\" in the near future, not the beginning of a recession.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, Tesla's global deliveries and production in the first quarter were lower than expected. Deliveries fell by 8.5% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since 2020, even lower than analysts' most pessimistic expectations. Deliveries, which hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, fell by 20% month-on-month. Superimposed on the news of at least 10% global layoffs last week, it highlights the dilemma that price cuts have failed to effectively stimulate EV demand.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, a quarterly report ago, it was revealed that Tesla shelved the research and development of the cheapest Model 2 model of less than US $30,000 and instead bet on the release of a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) on August 8, all of which represent Tesla's priorities and growth strategies are shifting from entering a more mass market to \"fully autonomous driving\" technology, which may affect the composition of long-term shareholders and lead to stock price changes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the logic of Tesla's stock price has long been based on future expectations for mass-market sales and driverless cars, rather than current sales and profits. Therefore,<strong>This financial report provides a valuable opportunity for investors to clarify the development direction and strategy in the next stage</strong>：</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Right now, investors are facing another conundrum in addition to digesting falling stock prices, disappointing sales data, and controversial plans to move the company's headquarters from Delaware to Texas: Tesla Will it become a large EV manufacturer with cheaper models or a smaller self-driving technology provider.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank pointed out that at present, Tesla's future seems to be closely related to \"cracking the code of completely unmanned autonomous driving\", which represents \"significant technical, regulatory and operational challenges.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_210181737\">What are you most concerned about?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When Tesla reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday, Musk is expected to face tough questions from analysts regarding declining sales, increased competition from Chinese EV makers and the fate of key Tesla products going forward.<strong>Investors focus on electric vehicle demand, company near-term performance guidance and product roadmap layout after stocks plummet</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Investors are also wondering if Tesla is taking a major shift in direction. Bank of America analyst John Murphy pointed out that people's confidence in Tesla has deteriorated since the end of 2023, and will focus on management comments related to growth initiatives, especially the \"next-generation platform\" on which the cheaper electric car Model 2 relies., AI and fully autonomous Robotaxi Robotaxi.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of new markets, the market is highly concerned about topics such as Musk's postponement of his scheduled trip to India, the construction of factories and investment in chip production in South Asia, and the construction and commissioning of the Mexican Gigafactory. It also wants to know the sales of the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. Documents filed with regulators last week said that since deliveries started at the end of November last year, Cybertruck sales have not been high, just under 4,000 units.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_246761874\">What does Wall Street think?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News has mentioned that the significant breakthrough in fully autonomous driving (FSD) makes Musk possibly bet the company's future on autonomous driving, especially Robotaxi, so he temporarily abandons the development and sale of cheaper electric vehicles. However, in the face of numerous regulatory hurdles, high costs, and the reality that autonomous driving technology is not yet mature, Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla is still one of the leaders in autonomous driving/ADAS technology, it believes that software and digital services can be an important driver of its business in the long run,<strong>However, many analysts believe that under the severe challenge of weak demand for electric vehicles, Tesla's current strategy of turning to driverless robotaxis instead of cheaper electric vehicles is full of risks.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Chase, which is rated \"underweight\", said that it was unconvincing for Tesla to blame the disappointment in deliveries in the first quarter on logistics challenges such as the diversion of transportation due to the Red Sea conflict and the suspension of production due to alleged arson attacks on German factories. \"Last week, Tesla announced large-scale layoffs, which is equivalent to a reduction in personnel capacity, which beyond doubt shows that the decline in deliveries is the result of declining demand, not the product of blocked supply.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morgan Stanley predicted in March that Tesla would lose money this year, and then lowered its quarterly delivery forecast. Wells Fargo worries Tesla is becoming \"a growth company with no growth\" and downgraded it to \"sell.\" Bank of America still believes that the cheaper Model 2 will be launched in 2025 or 2026, but also acknowledges that \"Tesla's stock price has been under significant pressure due to weak electric vehicle fundamentals and weak sentiment around the theme of electrification, and investors will focus on Tesla's demand and future growth plans.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush, who has always been strongly optimistic about Tesla, pointed out that the delivery volume in the first quarter is a nightmare level for Tesla, and the next few months will be a crucial \"fork in the road\" when investor patience begins to weaken, and robots When taxis are \"not a short-term growth solution\", if Tesla fails to provide new strategic prospects, its stock will face \"darker days\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"While we've seen more fragile periods in Tesla's history, such as 2015, 2018, and 2020, this one is clearly a bit different. For the first time, many longtime Tesla believers are starting to abandon this (high-growth) story and throw in the towel.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank, which withdrew its \"buy\" rating before the quarterly report, believes that if Tesla's abandonment of cheaper electric vehicles and switch to \"All in\" unmanned fully autonomous driving is really a strategic \"argument change\", the stock may need to experience a potentially painful shift in shareholder composition:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Investors who previously bet on Tesla's EV sales and cost advantage may throw in the towel and eventually be replaced by AI/tech investors with a longer-term view.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, there are considerable risks in pursuing autonomous driving all out. The release of a robotaxi in August by no means means that the technology is ready, and technological, regulatory, access to enough data and operational challenges may hinder its commercial prospects. We are concerned that there are considerable execution risks associated with the development of Robotaxi technology and that fleet deployment could take years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The delayed development of the Model 2, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2025, creates the risk that there will be no new vehicles in Tesla's consumer product lineup for the foreseeable future, which will put continued downward pressure on its sales and pricing for many years to come. \"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2024-04-24 04:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Tesla's revenue and earnings were worse than expected for three consecutive quarters. Revenue fell year-on-year for the first time in four years and the largest decline in twelve years. Profits were halved, and free cash flow was negative for the first time since the epidemic. The company reiterated its pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but said that it will accelerate the launch of cheaper models and increase AI investment as soon as early next year. More details will be introduced on August 8, and it also expects to sell humanoid robots before the end of next year.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcdba04953a4886412483cda59ec6f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, April 23, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market value, released its financial report for the first quarter of 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although both revenue and earnings were lower than expected, and maintained the guidance for \"significantly lower\" vehicle production/delivery growth in 2024, the company said it would accelerate the launch of cheaper and affordable models, and canceled the research and development of Model 2 a few days ago. Media reports, the stock price soared 8% after hours.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the plan for an affordable Tesla Model 2 is seen as the key to realizing Musk's sales growth ambitions. He said in 2020 that Tesla hopes to sell 20 million vehicles by 2030, twice the current sales of Toyota, the world's largest automaker.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The earnings call will cause its after-hours stock price to rise further and the overall rise will exceed 13%.</strong>Musk said that it is expected that the cheap model will be put on the market in early 2025, and does not even rule out advancing it to late 2024:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"That will be quite fast. The next generation product line will be built on the existing production line and will not require the construction of new factories.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk also released an optimistic tone, saying that the humanoid robot Optimus Humanoid Robot is expected to be sold by the end of 2025.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7503002bd5939f4b2be95c4942cb1471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"493\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla closed up 1.8% on Tuesday, and fell 3.4% to $142.05 on Monday, setting a new 15-month low since January 2023. It has fallen nearly 19% during the seven-day losing streak, and has fallen nearly 42% this year. It is the second deepest decline among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. The stock price fell 29% in the first quarter, the largest drop since the end of 2022 and the third largest quarterly drop since the company's IPO in 2010.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before the earnings report was released, Wall Street analysts had a consensus rating of \"neutral\" on Tesla, with a target stock price of $175.67, which is still 21% higher than the current stock price. Eleven of them rated \"buy\", three recommended \"hold\" and four recommended \"sell\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_238651762\">Tesla's revenue and earnings fell short of expectations for three consecutive quarters, with revenue hitting the biggest drop in 12 years and profit cut in half</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Financial report shows that Tesla's first quarter revenue fell year-on-year<strong><em>9</em></strong>% to US $21.3 billion, lower than market expectations of US $22.3 billion. It is not only the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since COVID-19 pandemic disrupted operations in the second quarter of 2020, but also the largest decline since 2012, compared with US $25.17 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. A quarter-on-quarter decline of more than 15%, mainly due to the slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts said that the decline in revenue this time was even greater than the company's decline in 2020, which was attributed to the production interruption caused by the epidemic.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a24106f48cfbf465c0dd1e734ad0d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tesla's profit side continues to be squeezed by price reduction strategies and investment in AI</strong>。 Net profit was cut in half, falling 55% year-on-year to US $1.13 billion. The market originally expected US $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS in the first quarter was earnings per share of US $0.45, lower than analysts' expectations of US $0.52, showing a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline from US $0.71 in the previous quarter and US $0.85 in the same period last year. Operating profit for the quarter fell 56% year-on-year to nearly US $1.2 billion, and operating profit margin further dropped to 5.5% from 8.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the company's capital expenditures increased to $2.77 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34%.<strong>Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $2.5 billion,</strong>This resulted in a $2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter decrease in cash and its equivalents and investments, mainly due to an increase in inventory of $2.7 billion in the quarter and capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure of $1 billion, which will continue to increase core AI infrastructure in the coming months infrastructure capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0744a17c254a542861400a79d68cc8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, some people predicted that its gross profit margin would reach the lowest level in seven years in the first quarter since the \"civilian magic car\" Model 3 was put into production in early 2017. Both Barclays and UBS see free cash flow turning \"slightly negative\", which will be the company's first quarter of negative cash since early 2020, or at a critical moment for investing heavily in robotaxis and cheaper new electric vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1faa69a087ac7af76710fedc6bca5ab9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first quarter, Tesla's auto business revenue fell 13% year-on-year to $17.34 billion. The revenue of the energy production and storage segment increased by 7% year-on-year to US $1.64 billion, and the gross profit, which surged 140% year-on-year, both hit record highs, and the energy storage deployment hit another record to 4.1 GWh; Services and other revenues increased 25% year over year to $2.29 billion.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4083894582\">Reiterates pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but says it will accelerate the launch of cheaper new models</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the performance guidance, Tesla reiterated that it is \"currently in (a plateau period) between two major growth waves\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The first wave of growth began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and we believe the next wave of growth will be triggered by advancements in autonomous driving and the launch of new products, including products built on our next-generation vehicle platform. The future is not only electric, but autonomous.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2024, our vehicle sales growth rate is likely to be significantly lower than the growth rate in 2023, as we work on launching next-generation vehicles and other products. Our energy generation and storage business revenue growth rate will outpace our automotive business this year. \"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>It is worth noting that Tesla still maintains its commitment to start production of \"new models\" in the second half of 2025</strong>, and said that it will accelerate the launch of more affordable models and dedicated robot taxis Robotaxi products. The above-mentioned narrative of \"more suitable new models\" directly \"slaps in the face\" a few days ago, some media reported that Tesla had given up research and development of Model 2 with a starting price of less than US $30,000.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the financial report statement, the average selling price of vehicles fell in the first quarter, investment in artificial intelligence, battery upgrades and other research and development projects led to an increase in operating expenses, as well as the cost of increasing production of Cybertruck electric pickup trucks and the decline in vehicle deliveries resulted in sluggish operating profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the reduction of raw materials, freight and tariffs is causing the unit cost of each vehicle to continue to decline quarter by quarter. The launch of the Autopark function in North America has also increased the revenue recognition of the FSD intelligent assisted driving system year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The financial report also revealed that the amount of AI training calculations increased by more than 130% in the first quarter. In April, more than 1,000 Cybertrucks were produced in a single week. Model Y production in Texas rose to a record high, and unit sales costs fell to a record low.<strong>The company expects demand in the Chinese market to usually improve throughout the year. \"When we enter new markets such as Chile, many of these products will be supplied by the Shanghai Gigafactory.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that Tesla invested US $1 billion in AI computing in the first three months of this year, making it more like an AI company than a car company.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab10e83f1dc48b8a0413af1c42fc284\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"125\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3410713195\">Why is it important?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global price cuts over the weekend added to growing concerns among investors, following weak first-quarter deliveries, layoffs and a full Cybertruck recall. With the decline of investor sentiment and the weakening of the company's financial situation, people urgently need to know the latest situation of Tesla's current and future prospects. It can be said that this financial report is likely to be a \"crossroads\" that determines Tesla's recent fate.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The \"big bull\" brokerage Wedbush bluntly said,<strong>Tuesday's earnings report and conference call are \"critical moments\" for both Tesla and CEO Musk, even one of the most important moments in the company's history, and will have a huge impact on the stock price</strong>。 After a chaotic quarter, Tesla needs to appease investors and take the opportunity to ensure that it has only encountered an \"unexpected speed bump\" in the near future, not the beginning of a recession.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, Tesla's global deliveries and production in the first quarter were lower than expected. Deliveries fell by 8.5% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since 2020, even lower than analysts' most pessimistic expectations. Deliveries, which hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, fell by 20% month-on-month. Superimposed on the news of at least 10% global layoffs last week, it highlights the dilemma that price cuts have failed to effectively stimulate EV demand.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, a quarterly report ago, it was revealed that Tesla shelved the research and development of the cheapest Model 2 model of less than US $30,000 and instead bet on the release of a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) on August 8, all of which represent Tesla's priorities and growth strategies are shifting from entering a more mass market to \"fully autonomous driving\" technology, which may affect the composition of long-term shareholders and lead to stock price changes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the logic of Tesla's stock price has long been based on future expectations for mass-market sales and driverless cars, rather than current sales and profits. Therefore,<strong>This financial report provides a valuable opportunity for investors to clarify the development direction and strategy in the next stage</strong>：</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Right now, investors are facing another conundrum in addition to digesting falling stock prices, disappointing sales data, and controversial plans to move the company's headquarters from Delaware to Texas: Tesla Will it become a large EV manufacturer with cheaper models or a smaller self-driving technology provider.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank pointed out that at present, Tesla's future seems to be closely related to \"cracking the code of completely unmanned autonomous driving\", which represents \"significant technical, regulatory and operational challenges.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_210181737\">What are you most concerned about?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When Tesla reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday, Musk is expected to face tough questions from analysts regarding declining sales, increased competition from Chinese EV makers and the fate of key Tesla products going forward.<strong>Investors focus on electric vehicle demand, company near-term performance guidance and product roadmap layout after stocks plummet</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Investors are also wondering if Tesla is taking a major shift in direction. Bank of America analyst John Murphy pointed out that people's confidence in Tesla has deteriorated since the end of 2023, and will focus on management comments related to growth initiatives, especially the \"next-generation platform\" on which the cheaper electric car Model 2 relies., AI and fully autonomous Robotaxi Robotaxi.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of new markets, the market is highly concerned about topics such as Musk's postponement of his scheduled trip to India, the construction of factories and investment in chip production in South Asia, and the construction and commissioning of the Mexican Gigafactory. It also wants to know the sales of the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. Documents filed with regulators last week said that since deliveries started at the end of November last year, Cybertruck sales have not been high, just under 4,000 units.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_246761874\">What does Wall Street think?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News has mentioned that the significant breakthrough in fully autonomous driving (FSD) makes Musk possibly bet the company's future on autonomous driving, especially Robotaxi, so he temporarily abandons the development and sale of cheaper electric vehicles. However, in the face of numerous regulatory hurdles, high costs, and the reality that autonomous driving technology is not yet mature, Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla is still one of the leaders in autonomous driving/ADAS technology, it believes that software and digital services can be an important driver of its business in the long run,<strong>However, many analysts believe that under the severe challenge of weak demand for electric vehicles, Tesla's current strategy of turning to driverless robotaxis instead of cheaper electric vehicles is full of risks.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Chase, which is rated \"underweight\", said that it was unconvincing for Tesla to blame the disappointment in deliveries in the first quarter on logistics challenges such as the diversion of transportation due to the Red Sea conflict and the suspension of production due to alleged arson attacks on German factories. \"Last week, Tesla announced large-scale layoffs, which is equivalent to a reduction in personnel capacity, which beyond doubt shows that the decline in deliveries is the result of declining demand, not the product of blocked supply.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morgan Stanley predicted in March that Tesla would lose money this year, and then lowered its quarterly delivery forecast. Wells Fargo worries Tesla is becoming \"a growth company with no growth\" and downgraded it to \"sell.\" Bank of America still believes that the cheaper Model 2 will be launched in 2025 or 2026, but also acknowledges that \"Tesla's stock price has been under significant pressure due to weak electric vehicle fundamentals and weak sentiment around the theme of electrification, and investors will focus on Tesla's demand and future growth plans.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush, who has always been strongly optimistic about Tesla, pointed out that the delivery volume in the first quarter is a nightmare level for Tesla, and the next few months will be a crucial \"fork in the road\" when investor patience begins to weaken, and robots When taxis are \"not a short-term growth solution\", if Tesla fails to provide new strategic prospects, its stock will face \"darker days\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"While we've seen more fragile periods in Tesla's history, such as 2015, 2018, and 2020, this one is clearly a bit different. For the first time, many longtime Tesla believers are starting to abandon this (high-growth) story and throw in the towel.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank, which withdrew its \"buy\" rating before the quarterly report, believes that if Tesla's abandonment of cheaper electric vehicles and switch to \"All in\" unmanned fully autonomous driving is really a strategic \"argument change\", the stock may need to experience a potentially painful shift in shareholder composition:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Investors who previously bet on Tesla's EV sales and cost advantage may throw in the towel and eventually be replaced by AI/tech investors with a longer-term view.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, there are considerable risks in pursuing autonomous driving all out. The release of a robotaxi in August by no means means that the technology is ready, and technological, regulatory, access to enough data and operational challenges may hinder its commercial prospects. We are concerned that there are considerable execution risks associated with the development of Robotaxi technology and that fleet deployment could take years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The delayed development of the Model 2, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2025, creates the risk that there will be no new vehicles in Tesla's consumer product lineup for the foreseeable future, which will put continued downward pressure on its sales and pricing for many years to come. \"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169208393","content_text":"特斯拉营收和盈利连续三个季度逊于预期，营收为四年里首次同比下滑并创十二年最大降幅，利润腰斩，自由现金流疫情以来首现负值。公司重申今年车辆销量增长“显著更低”的悲观预测，但称最快明年初加速推出更廉价车型和加大AI投资，8月8日会介绍更多细节，还预计明年底前销售人形机器人。4月23日周二美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商特斯拉发布2024年一季度财报。尽管营收和盈利均低于预期，并维持2024年“明显更低的”汽车产量/交付量增速指引，但公司称将加速推出更廉价的经适车型，“打脸”前几日取消研发Model 2的媒体报道，盘后股价飙升8%。有分析称，平价特斯拉Model 2的计划被视为实现马斯克销售增长雄心的关键。他曾在2020年表示，特斯拉希望到2030年销售2000万辆汽车，是全球最大汽车制造商丰田汽车当前销量的两倍。财报电话会令其盘后股价进一步上涨且整体涨超13%。马斯克称，预计廉价车型将于2025年初便投放到市场，甚至不排除提前到2024年后期：“那将是相当快的。下一代产品线将建立在现有生产线的基础之上，并不要求建设新的工厂。”马斯克还释放乐观基调称，预计将于2025年年底之前销售人形机器人Optimus Humanoid Robot。特斯拉周二收涨1.8%，周一曾跌3.4%至142.05美元，刷新2023年1月以来的15个月新低，在七日连跌期间累跌近19%，今年以来累跌近42%，是标普500成分股中跌幅第二深。一季度股价曾跌29%，为2022年底以来最大跌幅，也是公司2010年IPO以来的第三大季度跌幅。财报发布前，华尔街分析师对特斯拉的共识评级为“中性”，目标股价175.67美元，较当前股价还有21%的涨幅空间。其中11人评级“买入”，3人推荐“持有”，4人建议“卖出”。特斯拉营收和盈利连续三个季度逊于预期，营收创十二年最大降幅，利润腰斩财报显示，特斯拉一季度营收同比下降9%至213亿美元，低于市场预期的223亿美元，既是2020年二季度新冠疫情扰乱运营以来的近四年里首次同比下滑，也是2012年以来最大降幅，较去年四季度的251.7亿美元环比下滑超15%，主要由于全球对电动汽车的需求放缓。有分析称，此次营收的降幅甚至比该公司2020年的降幅还要大，当时归咎于疫情造成的生产中断。特斯拉的利润端持续受到降价策略和投资AI等举措的挤压。净利润砍半、同比下滑55%至11.3亿美元，市场原本预期19亿美元。一季度调整后EPS为每股收益0.45美元，低于分析师预期的0.52美元，较上季度的0.71美元和去年同期的0.85美元均呈现环比和同比回落。当季营业利润同比下滑56%至近12亿美元，营业利润率从去年四季度的8.2%进一步降至5.5%。此外，公司的资本支出增至27.7亿美元，同比增长34%。一季度的自由现金流为负25亿美元，导致季末的现金及其等价物和投资环比减少了22亿美元，主要由于当季库存增加27亿美元和对人工智能基础设施的资本支出为10亿美元，未来几个月将继续增加核心AI基础设施能力。此前便有人预测，其毛利率在一季度将出现自2017年初投产“平民神车”Model 3以来的七年最低水平。巴克莱和瑞银都认为自由现金流会“小幅转负”，这将是该公司2020年初以来首个季度现金为负数，还是在大举投资机器人出租车和更便宜新型电动汽车的关键时刻。一季度特斯拉的汽车业务收入同比下降13%至173.4亿美元。能源生产和存储部门的收入同比增长7%至16.4亿美元，与同比激增140%的毛利润均创历史新高，储能部署量再创纪录至4.1 GWh；服务和其他收入同比增长25%至22.9亿美元。重申今年车辆销量增长“显著更低”的悲观预测，但称将加速推出更廉价新车型在业绩指引中，特斯拉重申“目前正处于两个主要增长浪潮之间（的平台期）”：“第一个增长浪潮始于Model 3/Y平台的全球扩张，我们相信下一个增长浪潮将由自动驾驶的进步和新产品的推出引发，包括基于我们下一代汽车平台构建的产品。未来不仅是属于电动的，而且是自动驾驶的。2024年，我们的车辆销量增长率可能会明显低于2023年的增长率，因为我们将致力于推出下一代车辆和其他产品。今年我们的能源发电和存储业务收入增长率将超过汽车业务。”值得注意的是，特斯拉依旧维持2025年下半年开始投产“新车型”的承诺，并称将加速推出更经济实惠的车型以及专用机器人出租车Robotaxi产品。对上述“更经适新车型”的叙述，直接“打脸”了几天前有媒体对特斯拉已放弃研发起售价不足3万美元Model 2的报道。财报声明称，一季度车辆平均售价下滑，对人工智能、电池升级和其他研发项目的投资导致运营费用增加，以及Cybertruck电动皮卡产量提升的成本、车辆交付量下滑等造成运营利润不振。但原材料、运费和关税降低正令每辆车的单位成本逐季连续下降，在北美推出Autopark（自动泊车）功能也令FSD智能辅助驾驶系统的收入确认同比提高。财报还透露，第一季度AI训练计算量增超130%，4月份单周生产超过1000辆Cybertruck，美国得州的Model Y产量升至历史新高、而且单位销售成本降至历史新低。公司预计中国市场的需求全年通常会得到改善，“当我们进入智利等新市场时，其中许多产品将由上海超级工厂供应。”有分析称，特斯拉在今年头三个月在AI计算中投入了10亿美元，令其更像是AI公司而不是车企。为什么重要？继一季度交付疲弱、裁员和Cybertruck全面召回之后，周末的全球降价措施加剧了投资者日益增长的担忧。随着投资者情绪下滑和公司财务状况有所减弱，人们急需了解特斯拉当前和未来前景的最新情况，可以说，本次财报很可能是决定特斯拉近期命运的“十字路口”。“大多头”券商Wedbush直言，周二的财报和电话会议对特斯拉和CEO马斯克都是“关键时刻”，甚至是该公司历史上最重要的时刻之一，将对股价产生巨大影响。在混乱的一季度之后，特斯拉需要安抚投资者，借机保证近期只是遭遇了“意外的减速带”，而不是衰退之路的开端。一方面，特斯拉一季度的全球交付量与产量均低于预期，交付量同比下滑8.5%，是2020年以来近四年里首次同比回落，甚至低于分析师最悲观的预期，较去年四季度创新高的交付量环比跌去两成。叠加上周全球裁员至少10%的消息，都凸显降价未能有效刺激EV需求的困境。同时，一季报前爆出特斯拉搁置研发不足3万美元最便宜Model 2车型、转而全力押注8月8日发布无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）的消息，均代表特斯拉的优先事项和增长策略正从进军更大众市场转向“全自动驾驶”技术，可能会影响到长期股东的构成，进而导致股价变动。有分析称，特斯拉股价的逻辑长期以来一直基于对大众市场销售和无人驾驶汽车的未来预期，而不是当前的销售额和利润。因此，本次财报为投资者厘清下阶段发展方向和战略提供宝贵契机：“目前，投资者除了在消化不断下跌的股价、令人失望的销售数据，以及将公司总部从特拉华州迁至德克萨斯州的有争议计划，还面临着另一个难题：特斯拉将凭借更廉价车型成为一家大型EV制造商，还是一家规模较小的自动驾驶技术提供商。”德银指出，当前来看，特斯拉的未来似乎与“破解完全无人自动驾驶的代码”息息相关，这代表着“重大的技术、监管和运营挑战”。最关注什么？当特斯拉周二公布一季度业绩时，预计马斯克将面临分析师的严厉质疑，涉及销量下降、来自中国电动汽车制造商的竞争加剧以及特斯拉未来关键产品的命运。在股票暴跌后，投资者关注电动汽车需求、公司近期业绩指引和产品路线图布局。投资者还想知道特斯拉是否正在发生重大方向转变。美国银行分析师John Murphy指出，2023 年底以来，人们对特斯拉的信心已经恶化，将重点关注与增长举措相关的管理层评论，特别是更廉价电动车Model 2倚赖的“下一代平台”、AI和全自动驾驶的机器人出租车Robotaxi。在新市场方面，市场高度关注马斯克推迟原定的印度之行、在南亚建设工厂和投资芯片生产，以及墨西哥超级工厂的兴建和投产等话题，还想知道Cybertruck电动皮卡的销量情况。上周提交给监管机构的文件称，去年11月底启动交付以来，Cybertruck的销量并不高，仅不足4000辆。华尔街怎么看？华尔街见闻曾提到，全自动驾驶（FSD）的显著突破令马斯克可能将公司的未来押注于自动驾驶，特别是Robotaxi，因此暂时放弃开发和售卖更廉价电动车。然而，面对众多的监管障碍、高企的成本和自动驾驶技术尚未成熟的现实，Robotaxi可能无法支撑特斯拉的下一个增长阶段。尽管高盛认为特斯拉仍是自动驾驶/ADAS技术领域的领导者之一，从长远来看，相信软件和数字服务可以成为其业务的重要推动力，但不少分析师认为，在电动汽车需求疲软的严峻挑战下，特斯拉现在转向无人驾驶的机器人出租车、而非更便宜电动汽车的策略充满风险。评级“减持”的摩根大通称，特斯拉将一季度交付量失望归咎于红海冲突令运输改道和德国工厂涉嫌纵火袭击而停产等物流挑战不能令人信服，“上周特斯拉宣布大规模裁员，相当于人员产能的减少，这等于毫无疑问地表明，交付量下降是需求下降的结果，而不是供应受阻的产物。”摩根士丹利曾在3月预言特斯拉今年会亏损，随后下调季度交付量预测。富国银行担心特斯拉正沦为“一家没有增长的成长型公司”并将评级下调至“卖出”。美国银行依旧相信更廉价Model 2会在2025或2026年推出，但也承认“由于电动汽车基本面疲软和围绕电气化主题的情绪不振，特斯拉股价一直面临重大压力，投资者将重点关注特斯拉的需求和未来增长计划”。一直极力看好特斯拉的Wedbush指出，一季度交付量对特斯拉而言属于噩梦级别，接下来的几个月是至关重要的“岔路口”，在投资者耐心开始减弱，以及机器人出租车“并非短期内的增长解决方案”时，如果特斯拉不能提供新的战略前景，其股票将面临“更黑暗的日子”：“虽然我们在特斯拉的历史中看到过更脆弱的时期，例如2015年、2018年和2020年，但这一次显然有点不同。许多特斯拉的长期信徒第一次开始放弃这个（高增长）故事并认输了。”一季报前撤销“买入”评级的德银认为，特斯拉放弃更廉价电动车、转而“All in”无人全自动驾驶如果真是一种战略层面的“论点改变”，该股可能需要经历股东构成的潜在痛苦转变：“之前押注特斯拉电动汽车销量和成本优势的投资者可能会认输出局，并最终被目光更长远的人工智能/科技投资者所取代。然而全力以赴追求自动驾驶存在相当大的风险。8月发布机器人出租车绝不意味着该技术已经准备就绪，技术、监管、获取足够多的数据和运营方面的挑战可能会阻碍其商业前景。我们担心Robotaxi技术的开发存在相当大的执行风险，而且车队部署可能需要数年时间。而原定于2025年投产的Model 2 推迟开发，则造成了在可预见的未来特斯拉消费产品阵容中没有新车的风险，这将在未来多年内对其销量和定价带来持续的下行压力。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099814140,"gmtCreate":1643330015080,"gmtModify":1676533805486,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567155449884539","authorIdStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099814140","repostId":"1181488202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":370248768200856,"gmtCreate":1731395714471,"gmtModify":1731395718427,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567155449884539","idStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> onvo 820","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> onvo 820","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ onvo 820","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cee105913f176b6b7b428297cd41a51e","width":"1280","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370248768200856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569550688921055","authorId":"3569550688921055","name":"Edwin Tapay","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac50c357bc439bfea99fe2bcb4c3092","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569550688921055","idStr":"3569550688921055"},"content":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?","text":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?","html":"so 820 for onvo and 3300 for nio premium cars?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099814140,"gmtCreate":1643330015080,"gmtModify":1676533805486,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567155449884539","idStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099814140","repostId":"1181488202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368679375663264,"gmtCreate":1731047198515,"gmtModify":1731047202186,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567155449884539","idStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You can short it! Good luck!","listText":"You can short it! Good luck!","text":"You can short it! Good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368679375663264","repostId":"368640799379744","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368640799379744,"gmtCreate":1731041741820,"gmtModify":1731041745345,"author":{"id":"3573976216768090","authorId":"3573976216768090","name":"3nn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/303b8f037330070d95adf2f11d86d23a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573976216768090","idStr":"3573976216768090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Time to dump collect profit! Who's gonna be left holding the bag at $300-$310","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368640799379744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298737004118032,"gmtCreate":1713965755276,"gmtModify":1713965758898,"author":{"id":"3567155449884539","authorId":"3567155449884539","name":"小猫钓龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a197689d04c4dcc656b0a9e66f1fb4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567155449884539","idStr":"3567155449884539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short Tesla!!!","listText":"Short Tesla!!!","text":"Short Tesla!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298737004118032","repostId":"1169208393","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169208393","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1713905982,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169208393?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-24 04:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169208393","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713428","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Tesla's revenue and earnings were worse than expected for three consecutive quarters. Revenue fell year-on-year for the first time in four years and the largest decline in twelve years. Profits were halved, and free cash flow was negative for the first time since the epidemic. The company reiterated its pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but said that it will accelerate the launch of cheaper models and increase AI investment as soon as early next year. More details will be introduced on August 8, and it also expects to sell humanoid robots before the end of next year.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcdba04953a4886412483cda59ec6f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, April 23, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market value, released its financial report for the first quarter of 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although both revenue and earnings were lower than expected, and maintained the guidance for \"significantly lower\" vehicle production/delivery growth in 2024, the company said it would accelerate the launch of cheaper and affordable models, and canceled the research and development of Model 2 a few days ago. Media reports, the stock price soared 8% after hours.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the plan for an affordable Tesla Model 2 is seen as the key to realizing Musk's sales growth ambitions. He said in 2020 that Tesla hopes to sell 20 million vehicles by 2030, twice the current sales of Toyota, the world's largest automaker.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The earnings call will cause its after-hours stock price to rise further and the overall rise will exceed 13%.</strong>Musk said that it is expected that the cheap model will be put on the market in early 2025, and does not even rule out advancing it to late 2024:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"That will be quite fast. The next generation product line will be built on the existing production line and will not require the construction of new factories.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk also released an optimistic tone, saying that the humanoid robot Optimus Humanoid Robot is expected to be sold by the end of 2025.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7503002bd5939f4b2be95c4942cb1471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"493\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla closed up 1.8% on Tuesday, and fell 3.4% to $142.05 on Monday, setting a new 15-month low since January 2023. It has fallen nearly 19% during the seven-day losing streak, and has fallen nearly 42% this year. It is the second deepest decline among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. The stock price fell 29% in the first quarter, the largest drop since the end of 2022 and the third largest quarterly drop since the company's IPO in 2010.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before the earnings report was released, Wall Street analysts had a consensus rating of \"neutral\" on Tesla, with a target stock price of $175.67, which is still 21% higher than the current stock price. Eleven of them rated \"buy\", three recommended \"hold\" and four recommended \"sell\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_238651762\">Tesla's revenue and earnings fell short of expectations for three consecutive quarters, with revenue hitting the biggest drop in 12 years and profit cut in half</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Financial report shows that Tesla's first quarter revenue fell year-on-year<strong><em>9</em></strong>% to US $21.3 billion, lower than market expectations of US $22.3 billion. It is not only the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since COVID-19 pandemic disrupted operations in the second quarter of 2020, but also the largest decline since 2012, compared with US $25.17 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. A quarter-on-quarter decline of more than 15%, mainly due to the slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts said that the decline in revenue this time was even greater than the company's decline in 2020, which was attributed to the production interruption caused by the epidemic.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a24106f48cfbf465c0dd1e734ad0d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tesla's profit side continues to be squeezed by price reduction strategies and investment in AI</strong>。 Net profit was cut in half, falling 55% year-on-year to US $1.13 billion. The market originally expected US $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS in the first quarter was earnings per share of US $0.45, lower than analysts' expectations of US $0.52, showing a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline from US $0.71 in the previous quarter and US $0.85 in the same period last year. Operating profit for the quarter fell 56% year-on-year to nearly US $1.2 billion, and operating profit margin further dropped to 5.5% from 8.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the company's capital expenditures increased to $2.77 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34%.<strong>Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $2.5 billion,</strong>This resulted in a $2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter decrease in cash and its equivalents and investments, mainly due to an increase in inventory of $2.7 billion in the quarter and capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure of $1 billion, which will continue to increase core AI infrastructure in the coming months infrastructure capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0744a17c254a542861400a79d68cc8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, some people predicted that its gross profit margin would reach the lowest level in seven years in the first quarter since the \"civilian magic car\" Model 3 was put into production in early 2017. Both Barclays and UBS see free cash flow turning \"slightly negative\", which will be the company's first quarter of negative cash since early 2020, or at a critical moment for investing heavily in robotaxis and cheaper new electric vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1faa69a087ac7af76710fedc6bca5ab9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first quarter, Tesla's auto business revenue fell 13% year-on-year to $17.34 billion. The revenue of the energy production and storage segment increased by 7% year-on-year to US $1.64 billion, and the gross profit, which surged 140% year-on-year, both hit record highs, and the energy storage deployment hit another record to 4.1 GWh; Services and other revenues increased 25% year over year to $2.29 billion.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4083894582\">Reiterates pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but says it will accelerate the launch of cheaper new models</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the performance guidance, Tesla reiterated that it is \"currently in (a plateau period) between two major growth waves\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The first wave of growth began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and we believe the next wave of growth will be triggered by advancements in autonomous driving and the launch of new products, including products built on our next-generation vehicle platform. The future is not only electric, but autonomous.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2024, our vehicle sales growth rate is likely to be significantly lower than the growth rate in 2023, as we work on launching next-generation vehicles and other products. Our energy generation and storage business revenue growth rate will outpace our automotive business this year. \"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>It is worth noting that Tesla still maintains its commitment to start production of \"new models\" in the second half of 2025</strong>, and said that it will accelerate the launch of more affordable models and dedicated robot taxis Robotaxi products. The above-mentioned narrative of \"more suitable new models\" directly \"slaps in the face\" a few days ago, some media reported that Tesla had given up research and development of Model 2 with a starting price of less than US $30,000.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the financial report statement, the average selling price of vehicles fell in the first quarter, investment in artificial intelligence, battery upgrades and other research and development projects led to an increase in operating expenses, as well as the cost of increasing production of Cybertruck electric pickup trucks and the decline in vehicle deliveries resulted in sluggish operating profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the reduction of raw materials, freight and tariffs is causing the unit cost of each vehicle to continue to decline quarter by quarter. The launch of the Autopark function in North America has also increased the revenue recognition of the FSD intelligent assisted driving system year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The financial report also revealed that the amount of AI training calculations increased by more than 130% in the first quarter. In April, more than 1,000 Cybertrucks were produced in a single week. Model Y production in Texas rose to a record high, and unit sales costs fell to a record low.<strong>The company expects demand in the Chinese market to usually improve throughout the year. \"When we enter new markets such as Chile, many of these products will be supplied by the Shanghai Gigafactory.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that Tesla invested US $1 billion in AI computing in the first three months of this year, making it more like an AI company than a car company.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab10e83f1dc48b8a0413af1c42fc284\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"125\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3410713195\">Why is it important?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global price cuts over the weekend added to growing concerns among investors, following weak first-quarter deliveries, layoffs and a full Cybertruck recall. With the decline of investor sentiment and the weakening of the company's financial situation, people urgently need to know the latest situation of Tesla's current and future prospects. It can be said that this financial report is likely to be a \"crossroads\" that determines Tesla's recent fate.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The \"big bull\" brokerage Wedbush bluntly said,<strong>Tuesday's earnings report and conference call are \"critical moments\" for both Tesla and CEO Musk, even one of the most important moments in the company's history, and will have a huge impact on the stock price</strong>。 After a chaotic quarter, Tesla needs to appease investors and take the opportunity to ensure that it has only encountered an \"unexpected speed bump\" in the near future, not the beginning of a recession.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, Tesla's global deliveries and production in the first quarter were lower than expected. Deliveries fell by 8.5% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since 2020, even lower than analysts' most pessimistic expectations. Deliveries, which hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, fell by 20% month-on-month. Superimposed on the news of at least 10% global layoffs last week, it highlights the dilemma that price cuts have failed to effectively stimulate EV demand.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, a quarterly report ago, it was revealed that Tesla shelved the research and development of the cheapest Model 2 model of less than US $30,000 and instead bet on the release of a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) on August 8, all of which represent Tesla's priorities and growth strategies are shifting from entering a more mass market to \"fully autonomous driving\" technology, which may affect the composition of long-term shareholders and lead to stock price changes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the logic of Tesla's stock price has long been based on future expectations for mass-market sales and driverless cars, rather than current sales and profits. Therefore,<strong>This financial report provides a valuable opportunity for investors to clarify the development direction and strategy in the next stage</strong>：</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Right now, investors are facing another conundrum in addition to digesting falling stock prices, disappointing sales data, and controversial plans to move the company's headquarters from Delaware to Texas: Tesla Will it become a large EV manufacturer with cheaper models or a smaller self-driving technology provider.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank pointed out that at present, Tesla's future seems to be closely related to \"cracking the code of completely unmanned autonomous driving\", which represents \"significant technical, regulatory and operational challenges.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_210181737\">What are you most concerned about?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When Tesla reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday, Musk is expected to face tough questions from analysts regarding declining sales, increased competition from Chinese EV makers and the fate of key Tesla products going forward.<strong>Investors focus on electric vehicle demand, company near-term performance guidance and product roadmap layout after stocks plummet</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Investors are also wondering if Tesla is taking a major shift in direction. Bank of America analyst John Murphy pointed out that people's confidence in Tesla has deteriorated since the end of 2023, and will focus on management comments related to growth initiatives, especially the \"next-generation platform\" on which the cheaper electric car Model 2 relies., AI and fully autonomous Robotaxi Robotaxi.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of new markets, the market is highly concerned about topics such as Musk's postponement of his scheduled trip to India, the construction of factories and investment in chip production in South Asia, and the construction and commissioning of the Mexican Gigafactory. It also wants to know the sales of the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. Documents filed with regulators last week said that since deliveries started at the end of November last year, Cybertruck sales have not been high, just under 4,000 units.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_246761874\">What does Wall Street think?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News has mentioned that the significant breakthrough in fully autonomous driving (FSD) makes Musk possibly bet the company's future on autonomous driving, especially Robotaxi, so he temporarily abandons the development and sale of cheaper electric vehicles. However, in the face of numerous regulatory hurdles, high costs, and the reality that autonomous driving technology is not yet mature, Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla is still one of the leaders in autonomous driving/ADAS technology, it believes that software and digital services can be an important driver of its business in the long run,<strong>However, many analysts believe that under the severe challenge of weak demand for electric vehicles, Tesla's current strategy of turning to driverless robotaxis instead of cheaper electric vehicles is full of risks.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Chase, which is rated \"underweight\", said that it was unconvincing for Tesla to blame the disappointment in deliveries in the first quarter on logistics challenges such as the diversion of transportation due to the Red Sea conflict and the suspension of production due to alleged arson attacks on German factories. \"Last week, Tesla announced large-scale layoffs, which is equivalent to a reduction in personnel capacity, which beyond doubt shows that the decline in deliveries is the result of declining demand, not the product of blocked supply.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morgan Stanley predicted in March that Tesla would lose money this year, and then lowered its quarterly delivery forecast. Wells Fargo worries Tesla is becoming \"a growth company with no growth\" and downgraded it to \"sell.\" Bank of America still believes that the cheaper Model 2 will be launched in 2025 or 2026, but also acknowledges that \"Tesla's stock price has been under significant pressure due to weak electric vehicle fundamentals and weak sentiment around the theme of electrification, and investors will focus on Tesla's demand and future growth plans.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush, who has always been strongly optimistic about Tesla, pointed out that the delivery volume in the first quarter is a nightmare level for Tesla, and the next few months will be a crucial \"fork in the road\" when investor patience begins to weaken, and robots When taxis are \"not a short-term growth solution\", if Tesla fails to provide new strategic prospects, its stock will face \"darker days\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"While we've seen more fragile periods in Tesla's history, such as 2015, 2018, and 2020, this one is clearly a bit different. For the first time, many longtime Tesla believers are starting to abandon this (high-growth) story and throw in the towel.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank, which withdrew its \"buy\" rating before the quarterly report, believes that if Tesla's abandonment of cheaper electric vehicles and switch to \"All in\" unmanned fully autonomous driving is really a strategic \"argument change\", the stock may need to experience a potentially painful shift in shareholder composition:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Investors who previously bet on Tesla's EV sales and cost advantage may throw in the towel and eventually be replaced by AI/tech investors with a longer-term view.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, there are considerable risks in pursuing autonomous driving all out. The release of a robotaxi in August by no means means that the technology is ready, and technological, regulatory, access to enough data and operational challenges may hinder its commercial prospects. We are concerned that there are considerable execution risks associated with the development of Robotaxi technology and that fleet deployment could take years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The delayed development of the Model 2, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2025, creates the risk that there will be no new vehicles in Tesla's consumer product lineup for the foreseeable future, which will put continued downward pressure on its sales and pricing for many years to come. \"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Q1 revenue fell the worst in twelve years, but it will launch cheap models as soon as early next year, rising more than 13% after hours\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2024-04-24 04:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Tesla's revenue and earnings were worse than expected for three consecutive quarters. Revenue fell year-on-year for the first time in four years and the largest decline in twelve years. Profits were halved, and free cash flow was negative for the first time since the epidemic. The company reiterated its pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but said that it will accelerate the launch of cheaper models and increase AI investment as soon as early next year. More details will be introduced on August 8, and it also expects to sell humanoid robots before the end of next year.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcdba04953a4886412483cda59ec6f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, April 23, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market value, released its financial report for the first quarter of 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although both revenue and earnings were lower than expected, and maintained the guidance for \"significantly lower\" vehicle production/delivery growth in 2024, the company said it would accelerate the launch of cheaper and affordable models, and canceled the research and development of Model 2 a few days ago. Media reports, the stock price soared 8% after hours.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the plan for an affordable Tesla Model 2 is seen as the key to realizing Musk's sales growth ambitions. He said in 2020 that Tesla hopes to sell 20 million vehicles by 2030, twice the current sales of Toyota, the world's largest automaker.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The earnings call will cause its after-hours stock price to rise further and the overall rise will exceed 13%.</strong>Musk said that it is expected that the cheap model will be put on the market in early 2025, and does not even rule out advancing it to late 2024:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"That will be quite fast. The next generation product line will be built on the existing production line and will not require the construction of new factories.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk also released an optimistic tone, saying that the humanoid robot Optimus Humanoid Robot is expected to be sold by the end of 2025.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7503002bd5939f4b2be95c4942cb1471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"493\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla closed up 1.8% on Tuesday, and fell 3.4% to $142.05 on Monday, setting a new 15-month low since January 2023. It has fallen nearly 19% during the seven-day losing streak, and has fallen nearly 42% this year. It is the second deepest decline among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. The stock price fell 29% in the first quarter, the largest drop since the end of 2022 and the third largest quarterly drop since the company's IPO in 2010.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before the earnings report was released, Wall Street analysts had a consensus rating of \"neutral\" on Tesla, with a target stock price of $175.67, which is still 21% higher than the current stock price. Eleven of them rated \"buy\", three recommended \"hold\" and four recommended \"sell\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_238651762\">Tesla's revenue and earnings fell short of expectations for three consecutive quarters, with revenue hitting the biggest drop in 12 years and profit cut in half</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Financial report shows that Tesla's first quarter revenue fell year-on-year<strong><em>9</em></strong>% to US $21.3 billion, lower than market expectations of US $22.3 billion. It is not only the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since COVID-19 pandemic disrupted operations in the second quarter of 2020, but also the largest decline since 2012, compared with US $25.17 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. A quarter-on-quarter decline of more than 15%, mainly due to the slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts said that the decline in revenue this time was even greater than the company's decline in 2020, which was attributed to the production interruption caused by the epidemic.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a24106f48cfbf465c0dd1e734ad0d9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"777\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tesla's profit side continues to be squeezed by price reduction strategies and investment in AI</strong>。 Net profit was cut in half, falling 55% year-on-year to US $1.13 billion. The market originally expected US $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS in the first quarter was earnings per share of US $0.45, lower than analysts' expectations of US $0.52, showing a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline from US $0.71 in the previous quarter and US $0.85 in the same period last year. Operating profit for the quarter fell 56% year-on-year to nearly US $1.2 billion, and operating profit margin further dropped to 5.5% from 8.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the company's capital expenditures increased to $2.77 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34%.<strong>Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $2.5 billion,</strong>This resulted in a $2.2 billion quarter-on-quarter decrease in cash and its equivalents and investments, mainly due to an increase in inventory of $2.7 billion in the quarter and capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure of $1 billion, which will continue to increase core AI infrastructure in the coming months infrastructure capabilities.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0744a17c254a542861400a79d68cc8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, some people predicted that its gross profit margin would reach the lowest level in seven years in the first quarter since the \"civilian magic car\" Model 3 was put into production in early 2017. Both Barclays and UBS see free cash flow turning \"slightly negative\", which will be the company's first quarter of negative cash since early 2020, or at a critical moment for investing heavily in robotaxis and cheaper new electric vehicles.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1faa69a087ac7af76710fedc6bca5ab9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the first quarter, Tesla's auto business revenue fell 13% year-on-year to $17.34 billion. The revenue of the energy production and storage segment increased by 7% year-on-year to US $1.64 billion, and the gross profit, which surged 140% year-on-year, both hit record highs, and the energy storage deployment hit another record to 4.1 GWh; Services and other revenues increased 25% year over year to $2.29 billion.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4083894582\">Reiterates pessimistic forecast of \"significantly lower\" vehicle sales growth this year, but says it will accelerate the launch of cheaper new models</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the performance guidance, Tesla reiterated that it is \"currently in (a plateau period) between two major growth waves\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The first wave of growth began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and we believe the next wave of growth will be triggered by advancements in autonomous driving and the launch of new products, including products built on our next-generation vehicle platform. The future is not only electric, but autonomous.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2024, our vehicle sales growth rate is likely to be significantly lower than the growth rate in 2023, as we work on launching next-generation vehicles and other products. Our energy generation and storage business revenue growth rate will outpace our automotive business this year. \"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>It is worth noting that Tesla still maintains its commitment to start production of \"new models\" in the second half of 2025</strong>, and said that it will accelerate the launch of more affordable models and dedicated robot taxis Robotaxi products. The above-mentioned narrative of \"more suitable new models\" directly \"slaps in the face\" a few days ago, some media reported that Tesla had given up research and development of Model 2 with a starting price of less than US $30,000.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the financial report statement, the average selling price of vehicles fell in the first quarter, investment in artificial intelligence, battery upgrades and other research and development projects led to an increase in operating expenses, as well as the cost of increasing production of Cybertruck electric pickup trucks and the decline in vehicle deliveries resulted in sluggish operating profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the reduction of raw materials, freight and tariffs is causing the unit cost of each vehicle to continue to decline quarter by quarter. The launch of the Autopark function in North America has also increased the revenue recognition of the FSD intelligent assisted driving system year-on-year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The financial report also revealed that the amount of AI training calculations increased by more than 130% in the first quarter. In April, more than 1,000 Cybertrucks were produced in a single week. Model Y production in Texas rose to a record high, and unit sales costs fell to a record low.<strong>The company expects demand in the Chinese market to usually improve throughout the year. \"When we enter new markets such as Chile, many of these products will be supplied by the Shanghai Gigafactory.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that Tesla invested US $1 billion in AI computing in the first three months of this year, making it more like an AI company than a car company.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab10e83f1dc48b8a0413af1c42fc284\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"125\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3410713195\">Why is it important?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Global price cuts over the weekend added to growing concerns among investors, following weak first-quarter deliveries, layoffs and a full Cybertruck recall. With the decline of investor sentiment and the weakening of the company's financial situation, people urgently need to know the latest situation of Tesla's current and future prospects. It can be said that this financial report is likely to be a \"crossroads\" that determines Tesla's recent fate.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The \"big bull\" brokerage Wedbush bluntly said,<strong>Tuesday's earnings report and conference call are \"critical moments\" for both Tesla and CEO Musk, even one of the most important moments in the company's history, and will have a huge impact on the stock price</strong>。 After a chaotic quarter, Tesla needs to appease investors and take the opportunity to ensure that it has only encountered an \"unexpected speed bump\" in the near future, not the beginning of a recession.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, Tesla's global deliveries and production in the first quarter were lower than expected. Deliveries fell by 8.5% year-on-year, which was the first year-on-year decline in the past four years since 2020, even lower than analysts' most pessimistic expectations. Deliveries, which hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, fell by 20% month-on-month. Superimposed on the news of at least 10% global layoffs last week, it highlights the dilemma that price cuts have failed to effectively stimulate EV demand.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, a quarterly report ago, it was revealed that Tesla shelved the research and development of the cheapest Model 2 model of less than US $30,000 and instead bet on the release of a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) on August 8, all of which represent Tesla's priorities and growth strategies are shifting from entering a more mass market to \"fully autonomous driving\" technology, which may affect the composition of long-term shareholders and lead to stock price changes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some analysts say that the logic of Tesla's stock price has long been based on future expectations for mass-market sales and driverless cars, rather than current sales and profits. Therefore,<strong>This financial report provides a valuable opportunity for investors to clarify the development direction and strategy in the next stage</strong>：</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Right now, investors are facing another conundrum in addition to digesting falling stock prices, disappointing sales data, and controversial plans to move the company's headquarters from Delaware to Texas: Tesla Will it become a large EV manufacturer with cheaper models or a smaller self-driving technology provider.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank pointed out that at present, Tesla's future seems to be closely related to \"cracking the code of completely unmanned autonomous driving\", which represents \"significant technical, regulatory and operational challenges.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_210181737\">What are you most concerned about?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When Tesla reports its first-quarter results on Tuesday, Musk is expected to face tough questions from analysts regarding declining sales, increased competition from Chinese EV makers and the fate of key Tesla products going forward.<strong>Investors focus on electric vehicle demand, company near-term performance guidance and product roadmap layout after stocks plummet</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Investors are also wondering if Tesla is taking a major shift in direction. Bank of America analyst John Murphy pointed out that people's confidence in Tesla has deteriorated since the end of 2023, and will focus on management comments related to growth initiatives, especially the \"next-generation platform\" on which the cheaper electric car Model 2 relies., AI and fully autonomous Robotaxi Robotaxi.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of new markets, the market is highly concerned about topics such as Musk's postponement of his scheduled trip to India, the construction of factories and investment in chip production in South Asia, and the construction and commissioning of the Mexican Gigafactory. It also wants to know the sales of the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. Documents filed with regulators last week said that since deliveries started at the end of November last year, Cybertruck sales have not been high, just under 4,000 units.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_246761874\">What does Wall Street think?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News has mentioned that the significant breakthrough in fully autonomous driving (FSD) makes Musk possibly bet the company's future on autonomous driving, especially Robotaxi, so he temporarily abandons the development and sale of cheaper electric vehicles. However, in the face of numerous regulatory hurdles, high costs, and the reality that autonomous driving technology is not yet mature, Robotaxi may not be able to support Tesla's next phase of growth.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla is still one of the leaders in autonomous driving/ADAS technology, it believes that software and digital services can be an important driver of its business in the long run,<strong>However, many analysts believe that under the severe challenge of weak demand for electric vehicles, Tesla's current strategy of turning to driverless robotaxis instead of cheaper electric vehicles is full of risks.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Chase, which is rated \"underweight\", said that it was unconvincing for Tesla to blame the disappointment in deliveries in the first quarter on logistics challenges such as the diversion of transportation due to the Red Sea conflict and the suspension of production due to alleged arson attacks on German factories. \"Last week, Tesla announced large-scale layoffs, which is equivalent to a reduction in personnel capacity, which beyond doubt shows that the decline in deliveries is the result of declining demand, not the product of blocked supply.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morgan Stanley predicted in March that Tesla would lose money this year, and then lowered its quarterly delivery forecast. Wells Fargo worries Tesla is becoming \"a growth company with no growth\" and downgraded it to \"sell.\" Bank of America still believes that the cheaper Model 2 will be launched in 2025 or 2026, but also acknowledges that \"Tesla's stock price has been under significant pressure due to weak electric vehicle fundamentals and weak sentiment around the theme of electrification, and investors will focus on Tesla's demand and future growth plans.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush, who has always been strongly optimistic about Tesla, pointed out that the delivery volume in the first quarter is a nightmare level for Tesla, and the next few months will be a crucial \"fork in the road\" when investor patience begins to weaken, and robots When taxis are \"not a short-term growth solution\", if Tesla fails to provide new strategic prospects, its stock will face \"darker days\":</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"While we've seen more fragile periods in Tesla's history, such as 2015, 2018, and 2020, this one is clearly a bit different. For the first time, many longtime Tesla believers are starting to abandon this (high-growth) story and throw in the towel.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deutsche Bank, which withdrew its \"buy\" rating before the quarterly report, believes that if Tesla's abandonment of cheaper electric vehicles and switch to \"All in\" unmanned fully autonomous driving is really a strategic \"argument change\", the stock may need to experience a potentially painful shift in shareholder composition:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Investors who previously bet on Tesla's EV sales and cost advantage may throw in the towel and eventually be replaced by AI/tech investors with a longer-term view.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, there are considerable risks in pursuing autonomous driving all out. The release of a robotaxi in August by no means means that the technology is ready, and technological, regulatory, access to enough data and operational challenges may hinder its commercial prospects. We are concerned that there are considerable execution risks associated with the development of Robotaxi technology and that fleet deployment could take years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The delayed development of the Model 2, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2025, creates the risk that there will be no new vehicles in Tesla's consumer product lineup for the foreseeable future, which will put continued downward pressure on its sales and pricing for many years to come. \"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169208393","content_text":"特斯拉营收和盈利连续三个季度逊于预期，营收为四年里首次同比下滑并创十二年最大降幅，利润腰斩，自由现金流疫情以来首现负值。公司重申今年车辆销量增长“显著更低”的悲观预测，但称最快明年初加速推出更廉价车型和加大AI投资，8月8日会介绍更多细节，还预计明年底前销售人形机器人。4月23日周二美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商特斯拉发布2024年一季度财报。尽管营收和盈利均低于预期，并维持2024年“明显更低的”汽车产量/交付量增速指引，但公司称将加速推出更廉价的经适车型，“打脸”前几日取消研发Model 2的媒体报道，盘后股价飙升8%。有分析称，平价特斯拉Model 2的计划被视为实现马斯克销售增长雄心的关键。他曾在2020年表示，特斯拉希望到2030年销售2000万辆汽车，是全球最大汽车制造商丰田汽车当前销量的两倍。财报电话会令其盘后股价进一步上涨且整体涨超13%。马斯克称，预计廉价车型将于2025年初便投放到市场，甚至不排除提前到2024年后期：“那将是相当快的。下一代产品线将建立在现有生产线的基础之上，并不要求建设新的工厂。”马斯克还释放乐观基调称，预计将于2025年年底之前销售人形机器人Optimus Humanoid Robot。特斯拉周二收涨1.8%，周一曾跌3.4%至142.05美元，刷新2023年1月以来的15个月新低，在七日连跌期间累跌近19%，今年以来累跌近42%，是标普500成分股中跌幅第二深。一季度股价曾跌29%，为2022年底以来最大跌幅，也是公司2010年IPO以来的第三大季度跌幅。财报发布前，华尔街分析师对特斯拉的共识评级为“中性”，目标股价175.67美元，较当前股价还有21%的涨幅空间。其中11人评级“买入”，3人推荐“持有”，4人建议“卖出”。特斯拉营收和盈利连续三个季度逊于预期，营收创十二年最大降幅，利润腰斩财报显示，特斯拉一季度营收同比下降9%至213亿美元，低于市场预期的223亿美元，既是2020年二季度新冠疫情扰乱运营以来的近四年里首次同比下滑，也是2012年以来最大降幅，较去年四季度的251.7亿美元环比下滑超15%，主要由于全球对电动汽车的需求放缓。有分析称，此次营收的降幅甚至比该公司2020年的降幅还要大，当时归咎于疫情造成的生产中断。特斯拉的利润端持续受到降价策略和投资AI等举措的挤压。净利润砍半、同比下滑55%至11.3亿美元，市场原本预期19亿美元。一季度调整后EPS为每股收益0.45美元，低于分析师预期的0.52美元，较上季度的0.71美元和去年同期的0.85美元均呈现环比和同比回落。当季营业利润同比下滑56%至近12亿美元，营业利润率从去年四季度的8.2%进一步降至5.5%。此外，公司的资本支出增至27.7亿美元，同比增长34%。一季度的自由现金流为负25亿美元，导致季末的现金及其等价物和投资环比减少了22亿美元，主要由于当季库存增加27亿美元和对人工智能基础设施的资本支出为10亿美元，未来几个月将继续增加核心AI基础设施能力。此前便有人预测，其毛利率在一季度将出现自2017年初投产“平民神车”Model 3以来的七年最低水平。巴克莱和瑞银都认为自由现金流会“小幅转负”，这将是该公司2020年初以来首个季度现金为负数，还是在大举投资机器人出租车和更便宜新型电动汽车的关键时刻。一季度特斯拉的汽车业务收入同比下降13%至173.4亿美元。能源生产和存储部门的收入同比增长7%至16.4亿美元，与同比激增140%的毛利润均创历史新高，储能部署量再创纪录至4.1 GWh；服务和其他收入同比增长25%至22.9亿美元。重申今年车辆销量增长“显著更低”的悲观预测，但称将加速推出更廉价新车型在业绩指引中，特斯拉重申“目前正处于两个主要增长浪潮之间（的平台期）”：“第一个增长浪潮始于Model 3/Y平台的全球扩张，我们相信下一个增长浪潮将由自动驾驶的进步和新产品的推出引发，包括基于我们下一代汽车平台构建的产品。未来不仅是属于电动的，而且是自动驾驶的。2024年，我们的车辆销量增长率可能会明显低于2023年的增长率，因为我们将致力于推出下一代车辆和其他产品。今年我们的能源发电和存储业务收入增长率将超过汽车业务。”值得注意的是，特斯拉依旧维持2025年下半年开始投产“新车型”的承诺，并称将加速推出更经济实惠的车型以及专用机器人出租车Robotaxi产品。对上述“更经适新车型”的叙述，直接“打脸”了几天前有媒体对特斯拉已放弃研发起售价不足3万美元Model 2的报道。财报声明称，一季度车辆平均售价下滑，对人工智能、电池升级和其他研发项目的投资导致运营费用增加，以及Cybertruck电动皮卡产量提升的成本、车辆交付量下滑等造成运营利润不振。但原材料、运费和关税降低正令每辆车的单位成本逐季连续下降，在北美推出Autopark（自动泊车）功能也令FSD智能辅助驾驶系统的收入确认同比提高。财报还透露，第一季度AI训练计算量增超130%，4月份单周生产超过1000辆Cybertruck，美国得州的Model Y产量升至历史新高、而且单位销售成本降至历史新低。公司预计中国市场的需求全年通常会得到改善，“当我们进入智利等新市场时，其中许多产品将由上海超级工厂供应。”有分析称，特斯拉在今年头三个月在AI计算中投入了10亿美元，令其更像是AI公司而不是车企。为什么重要？继一季度交付疲弱、裁员和Cybertruck全面召回之后，周末的全球降价措施加剧了投资者日益增长的担忧。随着投资者情绪下滑和公司财务状况有所减弱，人们急需了解特斯拉当前和未来前景的最新情况，可以说，本次财报很可能是决定特斯拉近期命运的“十字路口”。“大多头”券商Wedbush直言，周二的财报和电话会议对特斯拉和CEO马斯克都是“关键时刻”，甚至是该公司历史上最重要的时刻之一，将对股价产生巨大影响。在混乱的一季度之后，特斯拉需要安抚投资者，借机保证近期只是遭遇了“意外的减速带”，而不是衰退之路的开端。一方面，特斯拉一季度的全球交付量与产量均低于预期，交付量同比下滑8.5%，是2020年以来近四年里首次同比回落，甚至低于分析师最悲观的预期，较去年四季度创新高的交付量环比跌去两成。叠加上周全球裁员至少10%的消息，都凸显降价未能有效刺激EV需求的困境。同时，一季报前爆出特斯拉搁置研发不足3万美元最便宜Model 2车型、转而全力押注8月8日发布无人驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）的消息，均代表特斯拉的优先事项和增长策略正从进军更大众市场转向“全自动驾驶”技术，可能会影响到长期股东的构成，进而导致股价变动。有分析称，特斯拉股价的逻辑长期以来一直基于对大众市场销售和无人驾驶汽车的未来预期，而不是当前的销售额和利润。因此，本次财报为投资者厘清下阶段发展方向和战略提供宝贵契机：“目前，投资者除了在消化不断下跌的股价、令人失望的销售数据，以及将公司总部从特拉华州迁至德克萨斯州的有争议计划，还面临着另一个难题：特斯拉将凭借更廉价车型成为一家大型EV制造商，还是一家规模较小的自动驾驶技术提供商。”德银指出，当前来看，特斯拉的未来似乎与“破解完全无人自动驾驶的代码”息息相关，这代表着“重大的技术、监管和运营挑战”。最关注什么？当特斯拉周二公布一季度业绩时，预计马斯克将面临分析师的严厉质疑，涉及销量下降、来自中国电动汽车制造商的竞争加剧以及特斯拉未来关键产品的命运。在股票暴跌后，投资者关注电动汽车需求、公司近期业绩指引和产品路线图布局。投资者还想知道特斯拉是否正在发生重大方向转变。美国银行分析师John Murphy指出，2023 年底以来，人们对特斯拉的信心已经恶化，将重点关注与增长举措相关的管理层评论，特别是更廉价电动车Model 2倚赖的“下一代平台”、AI和全自动驾驶的机器人出租车Robotaxi。在新市场方面，市场高度关注马斯克推迟原定的印度之行、在南亚建设工厂和投资芯片生产，以及墨西哥超级工厂的兴建和投产等话题，还想知道Cybertruck电动皮卡的销量情况。上周提交给监管机构的文件称，去年11月底启动交付以来，Cybertruck的销量并不高，仅不足4000辆。华尔街怎么看？华尔街见闻曾提到，全自动驾驶（FSD）的显著突破令马斯克可能将公司的未来押注于自动驾驶，特别是Robotaxi，因此暂时放弃开发和售卖更廉价电动车。然而，面对众多的监管障碍、高企的成本和自动驾驶技术尚未成熟的现实，Robotaxi可能无法支撑特斯拉的下一个增长阶段。尽管高盛认为特斯拉仍是自动驾驶/ADAS技术领域的领导者之一，从长远来看，相信软件和数字服务可以成为其业务的重要推动力，但不少分析师认为，在电动汽车需求疲软的严峻挑战下，特斯拉现在转向无人驾驶的机器人出租车、而非更便宜电动汽车的策略充满风险。评级“减持”的摩根大通称，特斯拉将一季度交付量失望归咎于红海冲突令运输改道和德国工厂涉嫌纵火袭击而停产等物流挑战不能令人信服，“上周特斯拉宣布大规模裁员，相当于人员产能的减少，这等于毫无疑问地表明，交付量下降是需求下降的结果，而不是供应受阻的产物。”摩根士丹利曾在3月预言特斯拉今年会亏损，随后下调季度交付量预测。富国银行担心特斯拉正沦为“一家没有增长的成长型公司”并将评级下调至“卖出”。美国银行依旧相信更廉价Model 2会在2025或2026年推出，但也承认“由于电动汽车基本面疲软和围绕电气化主题的情绪不振，特斯拉股价一直面临重大压力，投资者将重点关注特斯拉的需求和未来增长计划”。一直极力看好特斯拉的Wedbush指出，一季度交付量对特斯拉而言属于噩梦级别，接下来的几个月是至关重要的“岔路口”，在投资者耐心开始减弱，以及机器人出租车“并非短期内的增长解决方案”时，如果特斯拉不能提供新的战略前景，其股票将面临“更黑暗的日子”：“虽然我们在特斯拉的历史中看到过更脆弱的时期，例如2015年、2018年和2020年，但这一次显然有点不同。许多特斯拉的长期信徒第一次开始放弃这个（高增长）故事并认输了。”一季报前撤销“买入”评级的德银认为，特斯拉放弃更廉价电动车、转而“All in”无人全自动驾驶如果真是一种战略层面的“论点改变”，该股可能需要经历股东构成的潜在痛苦转变：“之前押注特斯拉电动汽车销量和成本优势的投资者可能会认输出局，并最终被目光更长远的人工智能/科技投资者所取代。然而全力以赴追求自动驾驶存在相当大的风险。8月发布机器人出租车绝不意味着该技术已经准备就绪，技术、监管、获取足够多的数据和运营方面的挑战可能会阻碍其商业前景。我们担心Robotaxi技术的开发存在相当大的执行风险，而且车队部署可能需要数年时间。而原定于2025年投产的Model 2 推迟开发，则造成了在可预见的未来特斯拉消费产品阵容中没有新车的风险，这将在未来多年内对其销量和定价带来持续的下行压力。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}