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Prospects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has "no mines at home", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has "hidden worries"
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","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387553","repostId":"2316066687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940387206,"gmtCreate":1677703299905,"gmtModify":1677707119919,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387206","repostId":"2316180126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316180126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677669670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316180126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-01 19:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Prospects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316180126","media":"智通财经","summary":"2月28日,米高集团控股有限公司再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书,,广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。截止目前,该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线,拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。然而,需要注意的是,米高集团业绩走高的背后,亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险,米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。","content":"<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a \"rising volume and price\" market that has been rare for many years.</p><p>Taking the subdivided potash fertilizer industry as an example, the performance of many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 performance forecasts has achieved a \"qualitative leap\". Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408. SZ) is expected to make a full-year profit of 5.63 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>(000792. SZ) expects a net profit of 15 billion to 15.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 234.94%-248.33%.</p><p>When the prosperity of the industry has risen sharply, Michael Group, one of the leading potash fertilizers, has also accelerated the pace of capitalization.</p><p>On February 28, Michael Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as \"Michael Group\") once again submitted a listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ended in \"invalidation\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after privatization in 2016.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer. Up to now, the company has three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, Guizhou Province and Guangdong Province in China.</p><p>With the help of a strong business territory, Michael Group has also occupied a \"place\" in the leading position-according to the Frost & Sullivan report, in terms of potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranks fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies. Ranked third among China's non-reserve potash fertilizer companies. In terms of sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migao Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies, respectively.</p><p>So, what is the texture of this \"potash faucet\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"rising volume and price\" VS \"dependence\" of major customers</p><p>There is no doubt that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the fertilizer industry, the core financial data of Michael Group also shows a relatively beautiful side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (the deadline of the fiscal year is March 31), Migao Group achieved revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan, and 3.841 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% in the next two years.% and 84%; The realized gross profits were 114 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% respectively in the next two years; The net profits achieved were 29 million, 207 million, and 397 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% respectively in the next two years.</p><p>As of the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (as of November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of 2.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: prospectus of Michael Group)</center>From the perspective of splitting the business structure, Michael Group's revenue has increased substantially in recent years, mainly due to the \"increase in volume and price\" of the company's core product potassium chloride (accounting for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is reported that since 2020, due to the impact of global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to the surge in sales, the prices of the company's potash fertilizer products have also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, as the company's main product, the average selling price of potassium chloride soared 66% year-on-year to 2,867.7 yuan per ton. Under this influence, the proportion of potassium chloride revenue has also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind the rising performance of Michael Group, there is also an obvious \"dependence\" of large customers.</p><p>The prospectus disclosed that from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were 875 million yuan, 1.210 billion yuan, 2.283 billion yuan, and 1.521 billion yuan respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1% of the company's total revenue., 58.1%, 59.4% and 55.8%.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major customers are mainly tobacco companies, land reclamation companies and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to the largest customer were approximately 214 million yuan, 580 million yuan, 861 million yuan and 418 million yuan respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of the total revenue respectively.</p><p>From this, it can be seen that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the potash fertilizer industry, although the performance of Migao Group has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain development worries-once the demand of major customers for the company declines, the company's performance may be obviously adversely affected.</p><p>The prosperity continues to rise, but \"no mines at home\" is a difficult problem</p><p>From the current point of view, benefiting from the prosperity of the industry, the sharp increase in Michael Group's performance is undoubtedly an established fact on the table, and this also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if you want to continue to judge the subsequent performance trajectory and growth value of Michael Group, I'm afraid you still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is reported that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day-in 2021, China's market size in terms of potassium chloride sales will reach 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total potash fertilizer sales. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 4.40 million tons and 0.87 million tons, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, it is forecast that the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume will further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tons in 2022 to 16.78 million tons in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tons and 0.96 million tons respectively by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Michael Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large part of the annual demand for potassium chloride is made up by overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tonnes in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tonnes in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were China's three largest potassium chloride importers, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Not only that, but there is also a very important issue for potash fertilizer producers like Migao Group-that is, the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Against the background of relatively uneven distribution of global potash reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world. In 2021, the potash reserves of these three countries will account for more than 60% of the global potash reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Michael Group)</p><p>Against this background, Michael Group also faces greater uncertainty in the global supply of potassium chloride and the risk of fluctuations in the purchase price and cost of potassium chloride.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus's potash field since mid-2021 have caused Belarus to disrupt the supply of potassium chloride to the world. Or, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of the supply of potassium chloride has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"risk of supply cut-off\" of the raw materials of the Michael Group-for example, in December 2021, one of the major suppliers of the Michael Group from Belarus was included in the relevant list. Affected by this, the company had to interrupt purchases and instead increase purchases of potassium chloride from Russia. In this regard, the company also frankly stated in the prospectus, \"The company's current potassium chloride procurement relies heavily on the potassium chloride it purchases from Russia. If any further sanctions are imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer-related market, it will have a negative impact on the company's business.\" significant adverse impact \".</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of \"cut-off supply\" of raw materials, Michael Group also faces rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of goods sold was 1.707 billion yuan, 1.831 billion yuan and 3.208 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the purchase cost of potassium chloride continues to rise, accounting for 76.5% and 77.7% of its total direct material purchases respectively. and 86.6%, the unit cost of goods sold per ton of potassium chloride has increased from 1827.1 yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 2438.9 yuan in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further under the influence of external reasons, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to customers, the company's profit margin will decrease, and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>To sum up, the investment value of Migao Group, the \"potash fertilizer leader\", is not as beautiful as the outside world sees, whether in terms of its own operating performance or the external development environment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prospects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProspects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-01 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a \"rising volume and price\" market that has been rare for many years.</p><p>Taking the subdivided potash fertilizer industry as an example, the performance of many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 performance forecasts has achieved a \"qualitative leap\". Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408. SZ) is expected to make a full-year profit of 5.63 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>(000792. SZ) expects a net profit of 15 billion to 15.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 234.94%-248.33%.</p><p>When the prosperity of the industry has risen sharply, Michael Group, one of the leading potash fertilizers, has also accelerated the pace of capitalization.</p><p>On February 28, Michael Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as \"Michael Group\") once again submitted a listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ended in \"invalidation\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after privatization in 2016.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer. Up to now, the company has three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, Guizhou Province and Guangdong Province in China.</p><p>With the help of a strong business territory, Michael Group has also occupied a \"place\" in the leading position-according to the Frost & Sullivan report, in terms of potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranks fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies. Ranked third among China's non-reserve potash fertilizer companies. In terms of sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migao Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies, respectively.</p><p>So, what is the texture of this \"potash faucet\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"rising volume and price\" VS \"dependence\" of major customers</p><p>There is no doubt that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the fertilizer industry, the core financial data of Michael Group also shows a relatively beautiful side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (the deadline of the fiscal year is March 31), Migao Group achieved revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan, and 3.841 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% in the next two years.% and 84%; The realized gross profits were 114 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% respectively in the next two years; The net profits achieved were 29 million, 207 million, and 397 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% respectively in the next two years.</p><p>As of the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (as of November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of 2.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: prospectus of Michael Group)</center>From the perspective of splitting the business structure, Michael Group's revenue has increased substantially in recent years, mainly due to the \"increase in volume and price\" of the company's core product potassium chloride (accounting for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is reported that since 2020, due to the impact of global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to the surge in sales, the prices of the company's potash fertilizer products have also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, as the company's main product, the average selling price of potassium chloride soared 66% year-on-year to 2,867.7 yuan per ton. Under this influence, the proportion of potassium chloride revenue has also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind the rising performance of Michael Group, there is also an obvious \"dependence\" of large customers.</p><p>The prospectus disclosed that from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were 875 million yuan, 1.210 billion yuan, 2.283 billion yuan, and 1.521 billion yuan respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1% of the company's total revenue., 58.1%, 59.4% and 55.8%.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major customers are mainly tobacco companies, land reclamation companies and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to the largest customer were approximately 214 million yuan, 580 million yuan, 861 million yuan and 418 million yuan respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of the total revenue respectively.</p><p>From this, it can be seen that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the potash fertilizer industry, although the performance of Migao Group has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain development worries-once the demand of major customers for the company declines, the company's performance may be obviously adversely affected.</p><p>The prosperity continues to rise, but \"no mines at home\" is a difficult problem</p><p>From the current point of view, benefiting from the prosperity of the industry, the sharp increase in Michael Group's performance is undoubtedly an established fact on the table, and this also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if you want to continue to judge the subsequent performance trajectory and growth value of Michael Group, I'm afraid you still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is reported that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day-in 2021, China's market size in terms of potassium chloride sales will reach 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total potash fertilizer sales. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 4.40 million tons and 0.87 million tons, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, it is forecast that the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume will further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tons in 2022 to 16.78 million tons in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tons and 0.96 million tons respectively by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Michael Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large part of the annual demand for potassium chloride is made up by overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tonnes in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tonnes in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were China's three largest potassium chloride importers, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Not only that, but there is also a very important issue for potash fertilizer producers like Migao Group-that is, the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Against the background of relatively uneven distribution of global potash reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world. In 2021, the potash reserves of these three countries will account for more than 60% of the global potash reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Michael Group)</p><p>Against this background, Michael Group also faces greater uncertainty in the global supply of potassium chloride and the risk of fluctuations in the purchase price and cost of potassium chloride.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus's potash field since mid-2021 have caused Belarus to disrupt the supply of potassium chloride to the world. Or, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of the supply of potassium chloride has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"risk of supply cut-off\" of the raw materials of the Michael Group-for example, in December 2021, one of the major suppliers of the Michael Group from Belarus was included in the relevant list. Affected by this, the company had to interrupt purchases and instead increase purchases of potassium chloride from Russia. In this regard, the company also frankly stated in the prospectus, \"The company's current potassium chloride procurement relies heavily on the potassium chloride it purchases from Russia. If any further sanctions are imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer-related market, it will have a negative impact on the company's business.\" significant adverse impact \".</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of \"cut-off supply\" of raw materials, Michael Group also faces rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of goods sold was 1.707 billion yuan, 1.831 billion yuan and 3.208 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the purchase cost of potassium chloride continues to rise, accounting for 76.5% and 77.7% of its total direct material purchases respectively. and 86.6%, the unit cost of goods sold per ton of potassium chloride has increased from 1827.1 yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 2438.9 yuan in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further under the influence of external reasons, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to customers, the company's profit margin will decrease, and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>To sum up, the investment value of Migao Group, the \"potash fertilizer leader\", is not as beautiful as the outside world sees, whether in terms of its own operating performance or the external development environment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0188":"融资融券","000792":"盐湖股份","09879":"米高集团","BK0155":"锂电池","000408":"藏格矿业","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0127":"黄金珠宝","BK0229":"化学制品","BK0182":"小金属","BK0028":"国家队","BK0183":"MSCI概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316180126","content_text":"近一两年来,在疫情冲击、地缘政治等多重因素冲击下,化肥行业显现了多年难遇的“量价齐升”行情。以细分赛道钾肥行业为例,多家已披露2022年业绩预告的钾肥概念股业绩均实现了“质的飞跃”。其中,藏格矿业(000408.SZ)预计2022年全年盈利56.3亿元至57.8亿元,同比上年增294.44%至304.95%;盐湖股份(000792.SZ)则预计2022年净利润150亿元-156亿元同比增长234.94%–248.33%。行业景气度大幅上行之际,钾肥龙头之一的米高集团也加快了资本化的步伐。2月28日,米高集团控股有限公司(简称“米高集团”)再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书,,广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。事实上,该公司曾于于2022年7月6日向港交所提交过上市申请,但最终以“失效”告终。而值一提的是,这并非是米高集团第一次上市,该公司曾在2006年在加拿大多伦多证券交易所上市,不过在2016年私有化后退市。智通财经APP了解到,该公司成立于2013年,主要从事包括氯化钾、硫酸钾、硝酸钾以及复合肥等各类钾肥产品的生产和销售。截止目前,该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线,拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。强大的业务版图助力下,米高集团也在龙头位置上占据了“一席之地”——据弗若斯特沙利文报告,按2021年度钾肥销量计算,米高集团在中国钾肥公司中排名第五,在中国非储备型钾肥公司中排名第三。按2021年度的氯化钾、硫酸钾及硝酸钾销量计算,于中国钾肥公司中,米高集团分别排名第四、第五和第五。那么,这家“钾肥龙头”的质地究竟如何呢?氯化钾“量价齐升”VS大客户“依赖症”毫无疑问,受益于化肥行业的“量价齐升”,米高集团的核心财务数据也体现出了较为靓丽的一面。据招股书显示,2020财年至2022财年(财政年度截止日期为3月31日),米高集团实现收入分别为18.21亿元、20.82亿元、38.41亿元,后两年分别同比增长为14%和84%;实现毛利分别为1.14亿元、2.51亿元以及6.33亿元,后两年分别同比增长120%和152%;实现净利润分别为 0.29亿、2.07亿、3.97亿,后两年分别同比增长614%和92%。截至2023财年前8月(截至2022年11月30日),该公司实现收入为27.27亿元,同比增长33%,实现净利润为2.37亿元,同比微降7%。(数据来源:米高集团招股书)拆分业务结构来看,米高集团近几年的营收大幅增长,主要得益于公司核心产品氯化钾(收入占比高达80%以上)“量价齐升”所致。据悉,2020年以来,受全球粮食安全问题影响以及地缘政治导致钾肥供需紧张,除了销量大增,公司钾肥产品的价格也大涨。在2022财年,氯化钾作为公司的主营产品,其平均售价同比飙升66%至2867.7元每吨。在此影响下氯化钾的收入占比也迅速增长,由2020财年的61%大幅增至2022财年82.8%。然而,需要注意的是,米高集团业绩走高的背后,亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。招股书披露,2020财年至2023财年前8月,该公司对五大客户的销售额分别为8.75亿元、12.10亿元、22.83亿元、15.21亿元,分别约占公司总收入的48.1%、58.1%、59.4%及55.8%。据了解,该公司的五大客户主要是烟草公司、农垦公司及农业综合公司。报告期内,该公司对最大客户的销售额分别约为2.14亿元、5.80亿元、8.61亿元及4.18亿元,占总收入分别为11.7%、27.9%、22.4%及15.3%。由此,可以看到,受益于钾肥行业的“量价齐升”利好,虽然米高集团近几年业绩大幅跃升,但该公司还是存有一定的发展隐忧——一旦大客户对公司的需求下降,该公司的业绩或受到较为明显的不利影响。景气度继续上行,但“家中无矿”是个难题站在当下来看,受益于行业景气度推动,米高集团业绩大幅走高无疑是一个摆在台面上的既定事实,而这也构成了其核心的投资价值。但若想继续判断米高集团后续的业绩轨迹和成长价值,恐怕仍需将目光聚焦到整个行业的发展潜力上。据悉,随着中国农业近几年的蓬勃发展,市场对钾肥的需求也与日俱增——2021年中国按氯化钾销量计的市场规模达到15.23百万吨,占钾肥总销量的74.3%。2021年硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量分别达到4.40百万吨及0.87百万吨。展望未来,预测按钾肥销量计的市场规模进一步增加,氯化钾销量由2022年的15.41百万吨增至2026年的16.78百万吨,复合年增长率为2.1%。而硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量至2026年则将分别达到5.01百万吨及0.96百万吨,2022年至2026年的复合年增长率为3.1%及2.6%。(数据来源:米高集团)不过,需要注意的是,由于中国钾资源有限,每年对氯化钾的需求中有很大一部分是通过海外进口弥补。于2021年,中国氯化钾总销量约50%来自外国。根据中华人民共和国海关总署发布的数据,氯化钾进口量由2017年的7,533千吨增加至2021年的7,566千吨,略有波动。于2021年,俄罗斯、加拿大及白罗斯为中国三大氯化钾进口国,分别约占中国氯化钾进口总量的29.8%、27.4%及23.1%。不仅如此,还有一个很重要的问题亦摆在如米高集团一样的钾肥生产商上——即生产钾肥的原材料“受制于人”。一直以来,氯化钾都是公司钾肥生产的主要原材料。报告期内,公司的氯化钾采购额占其采购总额的75.0%以上。在全球钾硷储量分布相对不均的背景下,公司的原材料主要依靠进口。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告,加拿大、白罗斯及俄罗斯是世界上储量最高的三个国家,于2021年,该三个国家的钾硷储量占全球钾硷储量的60%以上。(数据来源:米高集团)此背景下,米高集团还面临着较大的全球氯化钾供应不确定性和氯化钾的采购价及采购成本波动的风险。智通财经APP观察到,自2021年以来,全球钾肥及钾肥原料供应受到各种因素的干扰。比如说,自2021年年中 以来针对白罗斯钾硷领域的制裁已导致白罗斯对全球的氯化钾供应中断。再或者是,于2022年2月开始的俄乌冲突以及由西方国家就此对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施进一步加剧全球氯化钾供应的不确定性。氯化钾供应的不确定性,无疑也加剧了米高集团原材料的“断供风险”——譬如,2021年12月,米高集团的其中一家来自白罗斯的主要供应商被列入相关名单,受此影响,公司不得不中断采购,转而增加向俄罗斯采购氯化钾。对此,该公司也在招股书中坦言称,“公司目前的氯化钾采购十分依赖其从俄罗斯所采购的氯化钾,若俄罗斯的钾肥相关市场遭受到任何进一步的制裁都将对公司业务产生重大不利影响”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险,米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。2020财年至2022财年,公司销货成本分别为17.07亿元、18.31亿元及32.08亿元,其中,氯化钾的采购成本不断上升,分别占其直接材料采购总额的76.5%、77.7%及86.6%,每吨氯化钾单位销货成本已由2020财年的1827.1元增加至2022财年的2438.9元。若在外部原因的影响下,氯化钾价格进一步上涨,而公司无法将上涨转嫁给客户,公司利润率将会降低,且财务表现可能会受到重大不利影响。综上来看,不论是自身经营业绩来看,还是外在发展环境来看,米高集团这家“钾肥龙头”的投资价值并非外界所看到的那么靓丽。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09879":1,"000408":1,"000792":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":314070149267512,"gmtCreate":1717697756871,"gmtModify":1717697761702,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387553","repostId":"2316066687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940387206,"gmtCreate":1677703299905,"gmtModify":1677707119919,"author":{"id":"3570592308724570","authorId":"3570592308724570","name":"Futttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a295597bd937bc31607ca46ee06dacd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570592308724570","idStr":"3570592308724570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940387206","repostId":"2316180126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316180126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677669670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316180126?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-01 19:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Prospects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316180126","media":"智通财经","summary":"2月28日,米高集团控股有限公司再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书,,广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。截止目前,该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线,拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。然而,需要注意的是,米高集团业绩走高的背后,亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险,米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。","content":"<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a \"rising volume and price\" market that has been rare for many years.</p><p>Taking the subdivided potash fertilizer industry as an example, the performance of many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 performance forecasts has achieved a \"qualitative leap\". Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408. SZ) is expected to make a full-year profit of 5.63 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>(000792. SZ) expects a net profit of 15 billion to 15.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 234.94%-248.33%.</p><p>When the prosperity of the industry has risen sharply, Michael Group, one of the leading potash fertilizers, has also accelerated the pace of capitalization.</p><p>On February 28, Michael Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as \"Michael Group\") once again submitted a listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ended in \"invalidation\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after privatization in 2016.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer. Up to now, the company has three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, Guizhou Province and Guangdong Province in China.</p><p>With the help of a strong business territory, Michael Group has also occupied a \"place\" in the leading position-according to the Frost & Sullivan report, in terms of potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranks fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies. Ranked third among China's non-reserve potash fertilizer companies. In terms of sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migao Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies, respectively.</p><p>So, what is the texture of this \"potash faucet\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"rising volume and price\" VS \"dependence\" of major customers</p><p>There is no doubt that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the fertilizer industry, the core financial data of Michael Group also shows a relatively beautiful side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (the deadline of the fiscal year is March 31), Migao Group achieved revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan, and 3.841 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% in the next two years.% and 84%; The realized gross profits were 114 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% respectively in the next two years; The net profits achieved were 29 million, 207 million, and 397 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% respectively in the next two years.</p><p>As of the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (as of November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of 2.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: prospectus of Michael Group)</center>From the perspective of splitting the business structure, Michael Group's revenue has increased substantially in recent years, mainly due to the \"increase in volume and price\" of the company's core product potassium chloride (accounting for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is reported that since 2020, due to the impact of global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to the surge in sales, the prices of the company's potash fertilizer products have also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, as the company's main product, the average selling price of potassium chloride soared 66% year-on-year to 2,867.7 yuan per ton. Under this influence, the proportion of potassium chloride revenue has also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind the rising performance of Michael Group, there is also an obvious \"dependence\" of large customers.</p><p>The prospectus disclosed that from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were 875 million yuan, 1.210 billion yuan, 2.283 billion yuan, and 1.521 billion yuan respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1% of the company's total revenue., 58.1%, 59.4% and 55.8%.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major customers are mainly tobacco companies, land reclamation companies and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to the largest customer were approximately 214 million yuan, 580 million yuan, 861 million yuan and 418 million yuan respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of the total revenue respectively.</p><p>From this, it can be seen that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the potash fertilizer industry, although the performance of Migao Group has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain development worries-once the demand of major customers for the company declines, the company's performance may be obviously adversely affected.</p><p>The prosperity continues to rise, but \"no mines at home\" is a difficult problem</p><p>From the current point of view, benefiting from the prosperity of the industry, the sharp increase in Michael Group's performance is undoubtedly an established fact on the table, and this also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if you want to continue to judge the subsequent performance trajectory and growth value of Michael Group, I'm afraid you still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is reported that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day-in 2021, China's market size in terms of potassium chloride sales will reach 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total potash fertilizer sales. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 4.40 million tons and 0.87 million tons, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, it is forecast that the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume will further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tons in 2022 to 16.78 million tons in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tons and 0.96 million tons respectively by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Michael Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large part of the annual demand for potassium chloride is made up by overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tonnes in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tonnes in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were China's three largest potassium chloride importers, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Not only that, but there is also a very important issue for potash fertilizer producers like Migao Group-that is, the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Against the background of relatively uneven distribution of global potash reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world. In 2021, the potash reserves of these three countries will account for more than 60% of the global potash reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Michael Group)</p><p>Against this background, Michael Group also faces greater uncertainty in the global supply of potassium chloride and the risk of fluctuations in the purchase price and cost of potassium chloride.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus's potash field since mid-2021 have caused Belarus to disrupt the supply of potassium chloride to the world. Or, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of the supply of potassium chloride has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"risk of supply cut-off\" of the raw materials of the Michael Group-for example, in December 2021, one of the major suppliers of the Michael Group from Belarus was included in the relevant list. Affected by this, the company had to interrupt purchases and instead increase purchases of potassium chloride from Russia. In this regard, the company also frankly stated in the prospectus, \"The company's current potassium chloride procurement relies heavily on the potassium chloride it purchases from Russia. If any further sanctions are imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer-related market, it will have a negative impact on the company's business.\" significant adverse impact \".</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of \"cut-off supply\" of raw materials, Michael Group also faces rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of goods sold was 1.707 billion yuan, 1.831 billion yuan and 3.208 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the purchase cost of potassium chloride continues to rise, accounting for 76.5% and 77.7% of its total direct material purchases respectively. and 86.6%, the unit cost of goods sold per ton of potassium chloride has increased from 1827.1 yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 2438.9 yuan in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further under the influence of external reasons, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to customers, the company's profit margin will decrease, and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>To sum up, the investment value of Migao Group, the \"potash fertilizer leader\", is not as beautiful as the outside world sees, whether in terms of its own operating performance or the external development environment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prospects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProspects for new stocks | Migao Group, which has \"no mines at home\", submitted another form, and the potash fertilizer leader also has \"hidden worries\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-01 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>In the past year or two, under the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics, the fertilizer industry has shown a \"rising volume and price\" market that has been rare for many years.</p><p>Taking the subdivided potash fertilizer industry as an example, the performance of many potash fertilizer concept stocks that have disclosed their 2022 performance forecasts has achieved a \"qualitative leap\". Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000408\">Zangge Mining</a>(000408. SZ) is expected to make a full-year profit of 5.63 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 294.44% to 304.95%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>(000792. SZ) expects a net profit of 15 billion to 15.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 234.94%-248.33%.</p><p>When the prosperity of the industry has risen sharply, Michael Group, one of the leading potash fertilizers, has also accelerated the pace of capitalization.</p><p>On February 28, Michael Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as \"Michael Group\") once again submitted a listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with GF Capital (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor. In fact, the company submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 6, 2022, but it ended in \"invalidation\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time that Michael Group has gone public. The company was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada in 2006, but was delisted after privatization in 2016.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that the company was established in 2013 and is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various potash fertilizer products including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer. Up to now, the company has three potassium chloride granulation lines, 40 potassium sulfate production lines and three compound fertilizer production lines, and has five major production facilities in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, Guizhou Province and Guangdong Province in China.</p><p>With the help of a strong business territory, Michael Group has also occupied a \"place\" in the leading position-according to the Frost & Sullivan report, in terms of potash fertilizer sales in 2021, Michael Group ranks fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies. Ranked third among China's non-reserve potash fertilizer companies. In terms of sales volume of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate in 2021, Migao Group ranked fourth, fifth and fifth among Chinese potash fertilizer companies, respectively.</p><p>So, what is the texture of this \"potash faucet\"?</p><p>Potassium chloride \"rising volume and price\" VS \"dependence\" of major customers</p><p>There is no doubt that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the fertilizer industry, the core financial data of Michael Group also shows a relatively beautiful side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022 (the deadline of the fiscal year is March 31), Migao Group achieved revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan, and 3.841 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14% in the next two years.% and 84%; The realized gross profits were 114 million yuan, 251 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 120% and 152% respectively in the next two years; The net profits achieved were 29 million, 207 million, and 397 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 614% and 92% respectively in the next two years.</p><p>As of the first eight months of fiscal year 2023 (as of November 30, 2022), the company achieved revenue of 2.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year.</p><p><center><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669792865779.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669792865779.png\"/></center><center>(Data source: prospectus of Michael Group)</center>From the perspective of splitting the business structure, Michael Group's revenue has increased substantially in recent years, mainly due to the \"increase in volume and price\" of the company's core product potassium chloride (accounting for more than 80% of revenue).</p><p>It is reported that since 2020, due to the impact of global food security issues and geopolitics, the supply and demand of potash fertilizer have been tight. In addition to the surge in sales, the prices of the company's potash fertilizer products have also risen sharply. In fiscal year 2022, as the company's main product, the average selling price of potassium chloride soared 66% year-on-year to 2,867.7 yuan per ton. Under this influence, the proportion of potassium chloride revenue has also increased rapidly, from 61% in fiscal year 2020 to 82.8% in fiscal year 2022.</p><p>However, it should be noted that behind the rising performance of Michael Group, there is also an obvious \"dependence\" of large customers.</p><p>The prospectus disclosed that from fiscal year 2020 to the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, the company's sales to its five major customers were 875 million yuan, 1.210 billion yuan, 2.283 billion yuan, and 1.521 billion yuan respectively, accounting for approximately 48.1% of the company's total revenue., 58.1%, 59.4% and 55.8%.</p><p>It is understood that the company's five major customers are mainly tobacco companies, land reclamation companies and agricultural comprehensive companies. During the reporting period, the company's sales to the largest customer were approximately 214 million yuan, 580 million yuan, 861 million yuan and 418 million yuan respectively, accounting for 11.7%, 27.9%, 22.4% and 15.3% of the total revenue respectively.</p><p>From this, it can be seen that benefiting from the \"rising volume and price\" of the potash fertilizer industry, although the performance of Migao Group has jumped significantly in recent years, the company still has certain development worries-once the demand of major customers for the company declines, the company's performance may be obviously adversely affected.</p><p>The prosperity continues to rise, but \"no mines at home\" is a difficult problem</p><p>From the current point of view, benefiting from the prosperity of the industry, the sharp increase in Michael Group's performance is undoubtedly an established fact on the table, and this also constitutes its core investment value.</p><p>However, if you want to continue to judge the subsequent performance trajectory and growth value of Michael Group, I'm afraid you still need to focus on the development potential of the entire industry.</p><p>It is reported that with the vigorous development of China's agriculture in recent years, the market demand for potash fertilizer is also increasing day by day-in 2021, China's market size in terms of potassium chloride sales will reach 15.23 million tons, accounting for 74.3% of the total potash fertilizer sales. In 2021, the sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 4.40 million tons and 0.87 million tons, respectively.</p><p>Looking ahead, it is forecast that the market size in terms of potash fertilizer sales volume will further increase, with potassium chloride sales volume increasing from 15.41 million tons in 2022 to 16.78 million tons in 2026, representing a CAGR of 2.1%. The sales volume of potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate will reach 5.01 million tons and 0.96 million tons respectively by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% and 2.6% from 2022 to 2026.</p><p><span><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669807946682.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669807946682.png\"/></span></p><p><span>(Data source: Michael Group)</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to China's limited potassium resources, a large part of the annual demand for potassium chloride is made up by overseas imports.</p><p>In 2021, approximately 50% of the total sales volume of potassium chloride in China came from foreign countries. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import volume of potassium chloride increased from 7,533 thousand tonnes in 2017 to 7,566 thousand tonnes in 2021, with slight fluctuations. In 2021, Russia, Canada and Belarus were China's three largest potassium chloride importers, accounting for approximately 29.8%, 27.4% and 23.1% of China's total potassium chloride imports, respectively.</p><p>Not only that, but there is also a very important issue for potash fertilizer producers like Migao Group-that is, the raw materials for producing potash fertilizer are \"controlled by others\".</p><p>Potassium chloride has always been the main raw material for the company's potash fertilizer production. During the reporting period, the company's potassium chloride purchases accounted for more than 75.0% of its total purchases. Against the background of relatively uneven distribution of global potash reserves, the company mainly relies on imports for raw materials. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, Canada, Belarus and Russia are the three countries with the highest reserves in the world. In 2021, the potash reserves of these three countries will account for more than 60% of the global potash reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230301/1677669821643895.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1677669821643895.png\"/></p><p>(Data source: Michael Group)</p><p>Against this background, Michael Group also faces greater uncertainty in the global supply of potassium chloride and the risk of fluctuations in the purchase price and cost of potassium chloride.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that since 2021, the global supply of potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials has been disrupted by various factors. For example, sanctions against Belarus's potash field since mid-2021 have caused Belarus to disrupt the supply of potassium chloride to the world. Or, the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022 and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have further exacerbated the uncertainty of global potassium chloride supply.</p><p>The uncertainty of the supply of potassium chloride has undoubtedly exacerbated the \"risk of supply cut-off\" of the raw materials of the Michael Group-for example, in December 2021, one of the major suppliers of the Michael Group from Belarus was included in the relevant list. Affected by this, the company had to interrupt purchases and instead increase purchases of potassium chloride from Russia. In this regard, the company also frankly stated in the prospectus, \"The company's current potassium chloride procurement relies heavily on the potassium chloride it purchases from Russia. If any further sanctions are imposed on the Russian potash fertilizer-related market, it will have a negative impact on the company's business.\" significant adverse impact \".</p><p>In addition to facing the risk of \"cut-off supply\" of raw materials, Michael Group also faces rising raw material prices.</p><p>From fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2022, the company's cost of goods sold was 1.707 billion yuan, 1.831 billion yuan and 3.208 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the purchase cost of potassium chloride continues to rise, accounting for 76.5% and 77.7% of its total direct material purchases respectively. and 86.6%, the unit cost of goods sold per ton of potassium chloride has increased from 1827.1 yuan in fiscal year 2020 to 2438.9 yuan in fiscal year 2022. If the price of potassium chloride rises further under the influence of external reasons, and the company is unable to pass on the increase to customers, the company's profit margin will decrease, and its financial performance may be materially and adversely affected.</p><p>To sum up, the investment value of Migao Group, the \"potash fertilizer leader\", is not as beautiful as the outside world sees, whether in terms of its own operating performance or the external development environment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK0188":"融资融券","000792":"盐湖股份","09879":"米高集团","BK0155":"锂电池","000408":"藏格矿业","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0127":"黄金珠宝","BK0229":"化学制品","BK0182":"小金属","BK0028":"国家队","BK0183":"MSCI概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/885396.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316180126","content_text":"近一两年来,在疫情冲击、地缘政治等多重因素冲击下,化肥行业显现了多年难遇的“量价齐升”行情。以细分赛道钾肥行业为例,多家已披露2022年业绩预告的钾肥概念股业绩均实现了“质的飞跃”。其中,藏格矿业(000408.SZ)预计2022年全年盈利56.3亿元至57.8亿元,同比上年增294.44%至304.95%;盐湖股份(000792.SZ)则预计2022年净利润150亿元-156亿元同比增长234.94%–248.33%。行业景气度大幅上行之际,钾肥龙头之一的米高集团也加快了资本化的步伐。2月28日,米高集团控股有限公司(简称“米高集团”)再度向港交所主板递交上市申请书,,广发融资(香港)为独家保荐人。事实上,该公司曾于于2022年7月6日向港交所提交过上市申请,但最终以“失效”告终。而值一提的是,这并非是米高集团第一次上市,该公司曾在2006年在加拿大多伦多证券交易所上市,不过在2016年私有化后退市。智通财经APP了解到,该公司成立于2013年,主要从事包括氯化钾、硫酸钾、硝酸钾以及复合肥等各类钾肥产品的生产和销售。截止目前,该公司拥有三条氯化钾造粒线、40条硫酸钾生产线及三条复合肥生产线,拥有在中国黑龙江省、吉林省、贵州省以及广东省五个主要的生产设施。强大的业务版图助力下,米高集团也在龙头位置上占据了“一席之地”——据弗若斯特沙利文报告,按2021年度钾肥销量计算,米高集团在中国钾肥公司中排名第五,在中国非储备型钾肥公司中排名第三。按2021年度的氯化钾、硫酸钾及硝酸钾销量计算,于中国钾肥公司中,米高集团分别排名第四、第五和第五。那么,这家“钾肥龙头”的质地究竟如何呢?氯化钾“量价齐升”VS大客户“依赖症”毫无疑问,受益于化肥行业的“量价齐升”,米高集团的核心财务数据也体现出了较为靓丽的一面。据招股书显示,2020财年至2022财年(财政年度截止日期为3月31日),米高集团实现收入分别为18.21亿元、20.82亿元、38.41亿元,后两年分别同比增长为14%和84%;实现毛利分别为1.14亿元、2.51亿元以及6.33亿元,后两年分别同比增长120%和152%;实现净利润分别为 0.29亿、2.07亿、3.97亿,后两年分别同比增长614%和92%。截至2023财年前8月(截至2022年11月30日),该公司实现收入为27.27亿元,同比增长33%,实现净利润为2.37亿元,同比微降7%。(数据来源:米高集团招股书)拆分业务结构来看,米高集团近几年的营收大幅增长,主要得益于公司核心产品氯化钾(收入占比高达80%以上)“量价齐升”所致。据悉,2020年以来,受全球粮食安全问题影响以及地缘政治导致钾肥供需紧张,除了销量大增,公司钾肥产品的价格也大涨。在2022财年,氯化钾作为公司的主营产品,其平均售价同比飙升66%至2867.7元每吨。在此影响下氯化钾的收入占比也迅速增长,由2020财年的61%大幅增至2022财年82.8%。然而,需要注意的是,米高集团业绩走高的背后,亦存有较为明显的大客户“依赖症”。招股书披露,2020财年至2023财年前8月,该公司对五大客户的销售额分别为8.75亿元、12.10亿元、22.83亿元、15.21亿元,分别约占公司总收入的48.1%、58.1%、59.4%及55.8%。据了解,该公司的五大客户主要是烟草公司、农垦公司及农业综合公司。报告期内,该公司对最大客户的销售额分别约为2.14亿元、5.80亿元、8.61亿元及4.18亿元,占总收入分别为11.7%、27.9%、22.4%及15.3%。由此,可以看到,受益于钾肥行业的“量价齐升”利好,虽然米高集团近几年业绩大幅跃升,但该公司还是存有一定的发展隐忧——一旦大客户对公司的需求下降,该公司的业绩或受到较为明显的不利影响。景气度继续上行,但“家中无矿”是个难题站在当下来看,受益于行业景气度推动,米高集团业绩大幅走高无疑是一个摆在台面上的既定事实,而这也构成了其核心的投资价值。但若想继续判断米高集团后续的业绩轨迹和成长价值,恐怕仍需将目光聚焦到整个行业的发展潜力上。据悉,随着中国农业近几年的蓬勃发展,市场对钾肥的需求也与日俱增——2021年中国按氯化钾销量计的市场规模达到15.23百万吨,占钾肥总销量的74.3%。2021年硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量分别达到4.40百万吨及0.87百万吨。展望未来,预测按钾肥销量计的市场规模进一步增加,氯化钾销量由2022年的15.41百万吨增至2026年的16.78百万吨,复合年增长率为2.1%。而硫酸钾及硝酸钾的销量至2026年则将分别达到5.01百万吨及0.96百万吨,2022年至2026年的复合年增长率为3.1%及2.6%。(数据来源:米高集团)不过,需要注意的是,由于中国钾资源有限,每年对氯化钾的需求中有很大一部分是通过海外进口弥补。于2021年,中国氯化钾总销量约50%来自外国。根据中华人民共和国海关总署发布的数据,氯化钾进口量由2017年的7,533千吨增加至2021年的7,566千吨,略有波动。于2021年,俄罗斯、加拿大及白罗斯为中国三大氯化钾进口国,分别约占中国氯化钾进口总量的29.8%、27.4%及23.1%。不仅如此,还有一个很重要的问题亦摆在如米高集团一样的钾肥生产商上——即生产钾肥的原材料“受制于人”。一直以来,氯化钾都是公司钾肥生产的主要原材料。报告期内,公司的氯化钾采购额占其采购总额的75.0%以上。在全球钾硷储量分布相对不均的背景下,公司的原材料主要依靠进口。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告,加拿大、白罗斯及俄罗斯是世界上储量最高的三个国家,于2021年,该三个国家的钾硷储量占全球钾硷储量的60%以上。(数据来源:米高集团)此背景下,米高集团还面临着较大的全球氯化钾供应不确定性和氯化钾的采购价及采购成本波动的风险。智通财经APP观察到,自2021年以来,全球钾肥及钾肥原料供应受到各种因素的干扰。比如说,自2021年年中 以来针对白罗斯钾硷领域的制裁已导致白罗斯对全球的氯化钾供应中断。再或者是,于2022年2月开始的俄乌冲突以及由西方国家就此对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施进一步加剧全球氯化钾供应的不确定性。氯化钾供应的不确定性,无疑也加剧了米高集团原材料的“断供风险”——譬如,2021年12月,米高集团的其中一家来自白罗斯的主要供应商被列入相关名单,受此影响,公司不得不中断采购,转而增加向俄罗斯采购氯化钾。对此,该公司也在招股书中坦言称,“公司目前的氯化钾采购十分依赖其从俄罗斯所采购的氯化钾,若俄罗斯的钾肥相关市场遭受到任何进一步的制裁都将对公司业务产生重大不利影响”。而除了面临原材料“断供”的风险,米高集团还要面对不断上涨的原材料价格。2020财年至2022财年,公司销货成本分别为17.07亿元、18.31亿元及32.08亿元,其中,氯化钾的采购成本不断上升,分别占其直接材料采购总额的76.5%、77.7%及86.6%,每吨氯化钾单位销货成本已由2020财年的1827.1元增加至2022财年的2438.9元。若在外部原因的影响下,氯化钾价格进一步上涨,而公司无法将上涨转嫁给客户,公司利润率将会降低,且财务表现可能会受到重大不利影响。综上来看,不论是自身经营业绩来看,还是外在发展环境来看,米高集团这家“钾肥龙头”的投资价值并非外界所看到的那么靓丽。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09879":1,"000408":1,"000792":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}