kenp personal page - To The Moon

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2023-04-14

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-13

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-12

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-11

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-10

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-09

Tiger nice event good good good luck

2023-04-07

Tiger nice event, good good good

2023-04-07

Tiger nice event...go go go

2023-04-05

Tigr nice event!!! Good good good

2023-04-05

Nice event

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2022-05-26

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When Will US Inflation Fall Back? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators

2022-05-25

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2022-05-23

No

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2022-05-22

K

@孟析笔谈:心理專家線上“開方送藥”！海信冰箱公益課堂聽得家長心裏暖暖的

2022-05-22

K

@读懂数字财经:螞蟻集團如何重塑想象力（下）：兩張進展不順利的關鍵牌照

2022-05-22

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2022-05-21

K

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2022-05-21

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2022-05-20

K

History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come

2022-05-20

Oh

History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946991216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948621280,"gmtCreate":1680702024840,"gmtModify":1680702027665,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good&nbsp;","listText":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good&nbsp;","text":"Tigr nice event!!! Good good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948621004,"gmtCreate":1680701951409,"gmtModify":1680701954968,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice event&nbsp;","listText":"Nice event&nbsp;","text":"Nice event","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948621004","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022823188,"gmtCreate":1653519705145,"gmtModify":1676535294756,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022823188","repostId":"1189522697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189522697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653488770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189522697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 22:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When Will US Inflation Fall Back? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189522697","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures bode for a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is near its highest level in 40 years, posing challenges for households, businesses and government policymakers. Is the unusual wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, how long will inflation slow? Most importantly, where will inflation stabilize in the long run?</p><p>Economists give several signals to anticipate U.S. inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflation momentum</b></p><p>The most watched inflation data is the year-over-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how quickly prices have risen in a month compared to a year earlier. Lou Crandall, principal analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the metric helps measure longer-term inflation trends, it may be overly focused on past inflation levels. He and other economists depicted the change of CPI from three months ago and the change from the same period last year in the chart below. The former can better reflect the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI from 3 months ago and from the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors of rising oil prices or food prices do not reflect the overall price pressure in the economy. But economists have developed data that can identify inflation in the overall economy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, recommends focusing on the Cleveland Fed's 16% trimmed-mean CPI, an inflation measure that eliminates the most extreme price movements, leaving most of the middle price movements. These data can better explain how inflation is formed.</p><p>YoY CPI growth vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted YoY CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>Commodity spree ends</b></p><p>The early days of the pandemic saw a surge in demand for manufactured goods and a sharp drop in demand for services. At the same time, due to the disruption of the supply chain related to the epidemic, the imbalance between supply and demand has caused serious shortages of commodities and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to measure whether this is happening is to track balance changes across the two broad categories of spending in the Commerce Department's monthly personal consumption expenditures report.</p><p>Comparison of consumption of goods versus consumption of services, adjusted for inflation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>An overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin said that as consumers return to spending in services, it will be important to focus on wage growth, which tends to rely more on labor than goods production. He said:</p><p>\"If you plot trends over time, you'll see that wages and services inflation complement each other.\" He recommends paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group and other factors. A more useful comparison is the number of job-hoppers and the number of workers who stay in place.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage increases will increase American incomes and push up the price of everything-especially the cost of housing. Housing prices are key to understanding where inflation is headed, as housing costs account for nearly a third of CPI. Aichi Amemiya, US economist at Nomura Securities, recommends focusing on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>Rent index and Apartment List rent estimate data to better understand housing cost trends.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rental indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is the key</b></p><p>Prices in the auto market accounted for a large percentage of overall inflation over the past year, Amemiya said. Automobiles and parts contributed 1.3 percentage points of the 8.3% CPI increase in April. Among them, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to drop significantly, used car prices would have to drop somewhat. Amemiya recommends looking at Manheim's used car value index, which tends to be a month or two ahead of the CPI series.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and parts to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>Particularly the tourism industry that is vulnerable to the dramatic impact of the pandemic-especially airline tickets, hotels and car rental. One way to measure consumer attitudes towards the pandemic is the number of travelers passing through airport checkpoints published by the U.S. Transportation Safety Administration, Amemiya said. Data is updated daily and close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been the main cause of inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. Looking at the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts, you can roughly see where oil prices are likely to be in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Retail gasoline prices are updated weekly by the Information Agency (EIA). The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides daily gasoline prices by state and nationwide.</p><p>U.S. regular gasoline, all gasoline retail prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. Inflation expectations</b>Once people start noticing inflation, it inflates itself. That's why so-called inflation expectations are worth watching, Alex Lin said. The median inflation expectation for the next five to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey is a well-bequeathed measure of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We've seen some sort of rally-they seem to be at levels consistent with the 2% inflation rate the Fed is trying to set, but if they keep climbing, it will cause more panic.\" Inflation expectations for consumers over the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will US Inflation Fall Back? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will US Inflation Fall Back? Keep an eye on these 9 indicators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-25 22:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists emphasize that current price pressures bode for a longer-term trend.</p><p>U.S. inflation is near its highest level in 40 years, posing challenges for households, businesses and government policymakers. Is the unusual wave of price increases nearing its peak? If so, how long will inflation slow? Most importantly, where will inflation stabilize in the long run?</p><p>Economists give several signals to anticipate U.S. inflation:</p><p><b>1. Short-term inflation momentum</b></p><p>The most watched inflation data is the year-over-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how quickly prices have risen in a month compared to a year earlier. Lou Crandall, principal analyst at Wrightson ICAP, said that while the metric helps measure longer-term inflation trends, it may be overly focused on past inflation levels. He and other economists depicted the change of CPI from three months ago and the change from the same period last year in the chart below. The former can better reflect the recent inflation trend.</p><p>Changes in CPI from 3 months ago and from the same period last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99823906abcd72310979ec74003f3c92\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Potential inflation</b></p><p>These short-term factors of rising oil prices or food prices do not reflect the overall price pressure in the economy. But economists have developed data that can identify inflation in the overall economy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Alex Lin, senior U.S. economist at Global Research, recommends focusing on the Cleveland Fed's 16% trimmed-mean CPI, an inflation measure that eliminates the most extreme price movements, leaving most of the middle price movements. These data can better explain how inflation is formed.</p><p>YoY CPI growth vs. Cleveland Fed's adjusted YoY CPI growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b088341c45c0fd11fe1406a4e8f48de4\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3、<b>Commodity spree ends</b></p><p>The early days of the pandemic saw a surge in demand for manufactured goods and a sharp drop in demand for services. At the same time, due to the disruption of the supply chain related to the epidemic, the imbalance between supply and demand has caused serious shortages of commodities and rising prices. When consumers return to normal consumption of goods and services, this may reduce the pressure on product prices. One way to measure whether this is happening is to track balance changes across the two broad categories of spending in the Commerce Department's monthly personal consumption expenditures report.</p><p>Comparison of consumption of goods versus consumption of services, adjusted for inflation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b1871372a6120df55fcd89d4847ff\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4、<b>An overheated labor market</b>Alex Lin said that as consumers return to spending in services, it will be important to focus on wage growth, which tends to rely more on labor than goods production. He said:</p><p>\"If you plot trends over time, you'll see that wages and services inflation complement each other.\" He recommends paying close attention to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking system, which also allows users to filter data by wage level, demographic group and other factors. A more useful comparison is the number of job-hoppers and the number of workers who stay in place.</p><p>12-month moving average of median annual wage growth:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb55d3780f1a75410c4e710a744178\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rental costs</b></p><p>Rapid wage increases will increase American incomes and push up the price of everything-especially the cost of housing. Housing prices are key to understanding where inflation is headed, as housing costs account for nearly a third of CPI. Aichi Amemiya, US economist at Nomura Securities, recommends focusing on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>Rent index and Apartment List rent estimate data to better understand housing cost trends.</p><p>Comparison of year-on-year growth rates of three rental indicators:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7865239de5d3319c7e85cf6b6c351fc\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. The automobile market is the key</b></p><p>Prices in the auto market accounted for a large percentage of overall inflation over the past year, Amemiya said. Automobiles and parts contributed 1.3 percentage points of the 8.3% CPI increase in April. Among them, used cars are the biggest factor. For inflation to drop significantly, used car prices would have to drop somewhat. Amemiya recommends looking at Manheim's used car value index, which tends to be a month or two ahead of the CPI series.</p><p>Contribution of automobiles and parts to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d21ffc47189383c94c23930e8e7a85f\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>7. Parts vulnerable to the epidemic</b>Particularly the tourism industry that is vulnerable to the dramatic impact of the pandemic-especially airline tickets, hotels and car rental. One way to measure consumer attitudes towards the pandemic is the number of travelers passing through airport checkpoints published by the U.S. Transportation Safety Administration, Amemiya said. Data is updated daily and close to real-time metrics.</p><p>Number of passengers at airport checkpoints (7-day moving average):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. Oil futures</b></p><p>Soaring energy prices have been the main cause of inflation over the past year, while oil prices have hit record highs this year. Looking at the price of U.S. crude oil futures contracts, you can roughly see where oil prices are likely to be in a few months or a year. In the short term,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Retail gasoline prices are updated weekly by the Information Agency (EIA). The American Automobile Association (AAA) provides daily gasoline prices by state and nationwide.</p><p>U.S. regular gasoline, all gasoline retail prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d3825a8b16896d8b12c7432e40c8c0\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. Inflation expectations</b>Once people start noticing inflation, it inflates itself. That's why so-called inflation expectations are worth watching, Alex Lin said. The median inflation expectation for the next five to 10 years in the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey is a well-bequeathed measure of inflation expectations. He said,</p><p>\"We've seen some sort of rally-they seem to be at levels consistent with the 2% inflation rate the Fed is trying to set, but if they keep climbing, it will cause more panic.\" Inflation expectations for consumers over the next 5-10 years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d59adc1f7615ed86d2db75f5978397\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/94629","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189522697","content_text":"经济学家强调，当前的物价压力预示着更长期的走势。美国通货膨胀接近40年来的最高水平，这给家庭、企业和政府决策者带来了挑战。异常的价格上涨浪潮是否已接近峰值？如果是这样的话，通胀将会在多长的时间内放缓？最重要的是，从长期来看，通胀会在哪个位置稳定下来?经济学家给出几个信号用来预期美国通胀：1、短期通胀势头最受关注的通胀数据是消费者价格指数（CPI）的同比增速，该指数衡量了一个月与上年同期相比的物价上涨速度。Wrightson ICAP首席分析师Lou Crandall表示，尽管该指标有助于衡量较长期的通胀趋势，但可能过度关注过去的通胀水平。他和其他经济学家将CPI较3个月前的变化和较去年同期的变化描绘在了下图，前者更能体现出近期的通胀趋势。CPI较3个月前和较去年同期的变化：2、潜在通胀油价或食品价格上涨的这些短期因素，不能反映经济中整体的价格压力。但经济学家们已经研究出能识别整体经济通胀的数据。美国银行Global Research高级美国经济学家Alex Lin建议关注克利夫兰联储16%的截尾平均CPI（16% trimmed-mean CPI），该通胀指标剔除了最极端的价格变动，留下了中间大部分的价格变动，这些数据能更好地解释通胀如何形成的。CPI同比增速vs克利夫兰联储经调整后的CPI同比增速：3、大宗商品狂欢结束疫情的早期，人们对制成品的需求激增，而对服务的需求急剧下降。同时，也因与疫情有关的供应链中断，供需失衡，造成商品严重短缺和价格上涨。当消费者回归到正常的商品、服务消费后，这可能会降低产品价格的压力。衡量这种情况是否发生的一种方法是，跟踪商务部月度个人消费支出报告中两大类支出的余额变化。经通胀调整后，商品消费与服务消费的比较：4、过热的劳动力市场Alex Lin表示，随着消费者重新转向服务业消费，关注工资增长将非常重要，因为服务业往往比商品生产更依赖劳动力。他表示：“如果你绘制一段时间的趋势图，你会发现工资和服务业通胀相辅相成。”他建议密切关注亚特兰大联储的工资跟踪系统，该系统还允许用户按工资水平、人口统计群体和其他因素对数据进行筛选。一个比较有用的比较是跳槽者数量和留在原地的工作者数量。工资年增长中位数的12个月移动平均水平：5、租金成本工资的快速增长会增加了美国人的收入，推高了所有东西的价格——尤其是住房成本。住房价格是了解通胀走向的关键，因为住房成本占CPI的近三分之一。Nomura Securities的美国经济学家Aichi Amemiya建议关注Zillow的租金指数和Apartment List的租金预估数据，来更好地了解住房成本趋势。三种租金指标的同比增速对比：6、汽车市场是关键Amemiya表示，过去一年，汽车市场的价格占整体通胀中很大比例。4月份8.3%的CPI增长中，汽车和零部件贡献了1.3个百分点。其中，二手车是最大的因素。要想通胀大幅下降，二手车价格必须有所下降。Amemiya建议关注Manheim的二手车价值指数，该指数往往比CPI系列指数领先一两个月。汽车和零部件对CPI同比增速的贡献：7、易受疫情影响的部分易受疫情大幅影响的特别是旅游业——尤其是机票、酒店和汽车租赁。 Amemiya表示，衡量消费者对疫情态度的一种方法是通过美国交通安全管理局公布的机场检查站的旅客数量。数据每天更新且接近于实时指标。机场检查站的旅客数量（7日移动平均数）：8、石油期货飙升的能源价格是过去一年通货膨胀的主要原因，而油价在今年创下了历史新高。观察美国原油期货合约的价格，可以大致看出几个月或一年后油价可能会达到什么水平。短期来看，美国能源信息署（EIA）每周会更新汽油零售价格。美国汽车协会（AAA）每日会提供各州和全国范围内的汽油价格。美国普通汽油，所有汽油零售价格：9、通胀预期一旦人们开始注意到通货膨胀，它就会自我膨胀。Alex 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,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028601349","repostId":"615787219","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615787219,"gmtCreate":1653197882631,"gmtModify":1676533134036,"author":{"id":"4099445609802530","authorId":"4099445609802530","name":"读懂数字财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b9527f1fd2c3dab409752c5c6c9411","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099445609802530","idStr":"4099445609802530"},"themes":[],"title":"螞蟻集團如何重塑想象力（下）：兩張進展不順利的關鍵牌照","htmlText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","listText":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","text":"如果需要,支付寶可以上交給國家——馬雲筆者在《螞蟻，氣虛，筋骨強》一文中提到：螞蟻集團的根基是用戶、數據和流量，而這些不是信貸業務帶來的，而是以支付、生活、金融科技的整個生態帶來的，信貸業務只不過是螞蟻的變現方式。雖然筆者依然堅持當初的觀點，但不得不承認：信貸是數據最好的變現方式。螞蟻要扭轉頹勢，必須解決微貸科技平臺的問題。方案無非兩個：保住信貸業務或是找到信貸業務的替代品。對於第一個解決方案，其實螞蟻的微貸科技平臺一直有一個更好的解決方案“讓網商銀行承載這部分業務”，但若是這麼做，螞蟻收益只能有30%。退而求其次，含金量比網絡小貸更高、收益比例比網商銀行更高的消費金融牌照就成了一個斷臂求生的方案。螞蟻集團佔消金公司股權比例爲50%，雖然收益比例大幅降低，但相比於服務銀行放貸，螞蟻消金自己放貸，承擔了更大的風險，自然也會分得更多蛋糕，隨着不斷增資，總收益說不定可以與整改前持平甚至更高。一切看上去都在向好的方向發展，但意外如期而至——剛開年，中國信達、魚躍醫療等機構認購螞蟻消費金融股權計劃生變。輿論場也有一些壞消息傳來。有媒體曝出：我國的相關國企、銀行等已經接到了通知，將對螞蟻集團的相關業務進行新一輪的全面排查，目的是查明這些國企對螞蟻集團的投資及其他關聯。據第一消費金融：知名消費貸巨頭A公司持續在被限制消費貸管理規模，目前，A公司通過旗下消費貸產品B和產品C管理規模已經降低到萬億以下。監管對該公司的管理規模預期，第一目標是降低到3500億元。消費貸巨頭A是誰，顯而易見。第二個解決方案，錢塘徵信自然是最好的載體。2021年7月，人民銀行徵信管理局給網絡平臺機構下發通知，要求網絡平臺實現個人信息與金融機構的全面“斷直連”，過去的無冕之王“芝麻信用”不可能繼續裸奔，形勢比2020年外灘峯會後更加嚴峻。個人徵信牌照迫在眉睫。以螞蟻的實力，參股個人徵信牌照不是問題，但問題就出在“參股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36fd9a13d04d3df702ccf952bb8e5e8"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/615787219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028603550,"gmtCreate":1653204471970,"gmtModify":1676535240152,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028603550","repostId":"1176182387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021544123,"gmtCreate":1653090673662,"gmtModify":1676535220738,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"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11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236063801","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about one year, and the decline from peak to trough is close to 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market as traditionally defined.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment institution Boston Partners, said that so far,<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday, as the second largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Earnings fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020 on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from the perspective of historical experience, how will the S&P 500 index develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that there have been 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) in U.S. stocks since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the bear market of the S&P 500 index lasted for 17 months, and it hit an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest-lasting bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 index fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred at the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 index fell nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, before starting a bull market.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved under the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 index is only one step away from a bear market, the profit expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment, and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people think.\" He expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that may have an impact on the stock P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still preparing to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, starting to reduce its balance sheet of nearly US $9 trillion next month, and rate hike by 50 basis points at its two meetings in June and July.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Previously, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, he began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet a thousand points, the Nasdaq to plummet 5%, and the S&P 500 The index plunged 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistory as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about one year, and the decline from peak to trough is close to 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market as traditionally defined.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment institution Boston Partners, said that so far,<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday, as the second largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Earnings fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020 on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from the perspective of historical experience, how will the S&P 500 index develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that there have been 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) in U.S. stocks since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the bear market of the S&P 500 index lasted for 17 months, and it hit an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest-lasting bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 index fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred at the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 index fell nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, before starting a bull market.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved under the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 index is only one step away from a bear market, the profit expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment, and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people think.\" He expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that may have an impact on the stock P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still preparing to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, starting to reduce its balance sheet of nearly US $9 trillion next month, and rate hike by 50 basis points at its two meetings in June and July.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Previously, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, he began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet a thousand points, the Nasdaq to plummet 5%, and the S&P 500 The index plunged 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236063801","content_text":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定义上的熊市。然而有声音指出，在过去数周标普500指数其实已经是熊市风格。商业媒体MarketWatch提及，投资机构Boston Partners全球市场研究主管Mike Mullaney表示，到目前为止，标普500指数中61%的成分股已经进入熊市。研究机构凯投宏观的Thomas Mathews认为，标普500指数很容易触及3750点的低位），并且随着更多不及预期的财报逐步公布，标普500指数或将继续下行。本周四由于美国第二大零售消费集团塔吉特业绩“暴雷”，叠加前一天沃尔玛财报成绩低于预期，标普500指数在周日创下2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。那么从历史经验来看，标普500指数进入熊市后会如何发展？投资管理平台LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick在周三报告中表示，自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市（或接近熊市）。而一般来说，标普500指数一旦进入熊市，就会进一步下跌。平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在2007年-2009年的金融危机中，标普500指数的熊市行情长达17个月，并且创下历史最高57%的跌幅。持续时间最长的熊市发生在1973年-1974年，标普500指数在近21个月的时间内下挫48.2%。持续时间最短的熊市发生在2020年初疫情爆发之时，当时标普500指数在23个交易日内重挫近34%，并在3月23日触底，之后便开启了牛市行情。经济衰退危机下 “市盈率”能否保住？凯投宏观Mathews认为，尽管标普500指数距离熊市仅一步之遥，但是成分股的盈利预期仍值得期待。他对此强调称，分析师们一直预计标普500指数成分股将在未来几年内实现近两位数的盈利增长。经济学家也认为，这些成分股的12个月远期盈利预期仍比疫情前高出16%左右。但是按照资产管理机构Seaport Global Holdings的董事总经理di Galoma的说法，当前有一个风险因素被低估，那就是在当前环境下金融和经济状况会以多快的速度恶化，会对股市造成怎样的冲击。di Galoma表示经济恶化速度“正在加速，而且会比人们想象的要快得多”，他预计美国经济将在 2023年初陷入衰退，并且“这次衰退将非常严重”。Mathews同样指出，美联储的货币政策就是另一个“关键冲击”，可能会对股票市盈率造成影响。当前美联储仍旧准备继续激进“收水”，从下月开始缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，并在6月和7月两次会议上分别加息50个基点。但现在的情况是，投资者正在试图忽略加息的影响。此前在5月初当美联储主席鲍威尔表示未积极考虑加息75个基点，市场随即欢呼雀跃，然而在第二天就开始“回归现实”，导致道指狂泻千点，纳指暴跌5%，标普500指数重挫3.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021830661,"gmtCreate":1653022505753,"gmtModify":1676535210431,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021830661","repostId":"2236063801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236063801","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653274939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236063801?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236063801","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about one year, and the decline from peak to trough is close to 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market as traditionally defined.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment institution Boston Partners, said that so far,<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday, as the second largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Earnings fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020 on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from the perspective of historical experience, how will the S&P 500 index develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that there have been 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) in U.S. stocks since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the bear market of the S&P 500 index lasted for 17 months, and it hit an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest-lasting bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 index fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred at the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 index fell nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, before starting a bull market.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved under the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 index is only one step away from a bear market, the profit expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment, and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people think.\" He expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that may have an impact on the stock P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still preparing to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, starting to reduce its balance sheet of nearly US $9 trillion next month, and rate hike by 50 basis points at its two meetings in June and July.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Previously, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, he began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet a thousand points, the Nasdaq to plummet 5%, and the S&P 500 The index plunged 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>History as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistory as a Mirror: The S&P 500 is one step away from a bear market, and worse is yet to come\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>Since World War II, there have been 17 bear markets in U.S. stocks: the average duration is about one year, and the decline from peak to trough is close to 30%.</b>After continuous declines, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 18% from its peak on January 3 this year, and once the decline reaches 20%, it will enter a bear market as traditionally defined.</p><p>However, some voices pointed out that the S&P 500 index has actually been a bear market style in the past few weeks.</p><p>Business media MarketWatch mentioned that Mike Mullaney, head of global market research at investment institution Boston Partners, said that so far,<b>61% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have entered a bear market.</b></p><p>Thomas Mathews of research firm Capital Economics believes that the S&P 500 index can easily hit a low of 3,750 points), and as more earnings reports that are less than expected are gradually released, the S&P 500 index may continue to decline.</p><p>This Thursday, as the second largest retail consumer group in the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>Performance \"thunderstorm\", superimposed the day before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Earnings fell short of expectations, and the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day drop since June 11, 2020 on Sunday.</p><p><b>So from the perspective of historical experience, how will the S&P 500 index develop after entering a bear market?</b></p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at investment management platform LPL Financial, said in a report on Wednesday that there have been 17 bear markets (or near bear markets) in U.S. stocks since World War II.</p><p><b>Generally speaking, once the S&P 500 enters a bear market, it will fall further. The average duration is roughly one year, with a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc93d74246082b1811e825fa9d955b4\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the bear market of the S&P 500 index lasted for 17 months, and it hit an all-time high of 57%.</p><p>The longest-lasting bear market occurred in 1973-1974, when the S&P 500 index fell 48.2% in nearly 21 months.</p><p>The shortest-lasting bear market occurred at the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, when the S&P 500 index fell nearly 34% in 23 trading days and bottomed out on March 23, before starting a bull market.</p><p><h2>Can \"P/E\" be preserved under the economic recession crisis?</h2>Capital Economics Mathews believes that although the S&P 500 index is only one step away from a bear market, the profit expectations of constituent stocks are still worth looking forward to.</p><p>He stressed that analysts have been expecting S&P 500 stocks to achieve nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next few years. Economists also believe that 12-month forward earnings estimates for these constituent stocks are still about 16% higher than before the pandemic.</p><p>But according to di Galoma, managing director of asset manager Seaport Global Holdings,<b>At present, there is an underestimated risk factor, that is, how quickly financial and economic conditions will deteriorate in the current environment, and how it will impact the stock market.</b></p><p>di Galoma said the pace of economic deterioration is \"accelerating and will be much faster than people think.\" He expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession in early 2023 and \"this recession will be very severe.\"</p><p>Mathews also pointed out,<b>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is another \"key shock\" that may have an impact on the stock P/E.</b></p><p>At present, the Federal Reserve is still preparing to continue to \"collect water\" aggressively, starting to reduce its balance sheet of nearly US $9 trillion next month, and rate hike by 50 basis points at its two meetings in June and July.</p><p><b>But what's happening now is that investors are trying to ignore the impact of rate hike.</b>Previously, in early May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he had not actively considered rate hike 75 basis points, the market immediately cheered. However, the next day, he began to \"return to reality\", causing the Dow to plummet a thousand points, the Nasdaq to plummet 5%, and the S&P 500 The index plunged 3.5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236063801","content_text":"摘要：自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市：平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在连续的跌跌不休之后，标普500指数较今年1月3日峰值已经下挫18%，而跌幅一旦达到20%就将进入传统定义上的熊市。然而有声音指出，在过去数周标普500指数其实已经是熊市风格。商业媒体MarketWatch提及，投资机构Boston Partners全球市场研究主管Mike Mullaney表示，到目前为止，标普500指数中61%的成分股已经进入熊市。研究机构凯投宏观的Thomas Mathews认为，标普500指数很容易触及3750点的低位），并且随着更多不及预期的财报逐步公布，标普500指数或将继续下行。本周四由于美国第二大零售消费集团塔吉特业绩“暴雷”，叠加前一天沃尔玛财报成绩低于预期，标普500指数在周日创下2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。那么从历史经验来看，标普500指数进入熊市后会如何发展？投资管理平台LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick在周三报告中表示，自二战以来美股已经出现了17个熊市（或接近熊市）。而一般来说，标普500指数一旦进入熊市，就会进一步下跌。平均持续时间大约为一年，从峰值到谷底的跌幅接近30%。在2007年-2009年的金融危机中，标普500指数的熊市行情长达17个月，并且创下历史最高57%的跌幅。持续时间最长的熊市发生在1973年-1974年，标普500指数在近21个月的时间内下挫48.2%。持续时间最短的熊市发生在2020年初疫情爆发之时，当时标普500指数在23个交易日内重挫近34%，并在3月23日触底，之后便开启了牛市行情。经济衰退危机下 “市盈率”能否保住？凯投宏观Mathews认为，尽管标普500指数距离熊市仅一步之遥，但是成分股的盈利预期仍值得期待。他对此强调称，分析师们一直预计标普500指数成分股将在未来几年内实现近两位数的盈利增长。经济学家也认为，这些成分股的12个月远期盈利预期仍比疫情前高出16%左右。但是按照资产管理机构Seaport Global Holdings的董事总经理di Galoma的说法，当前有一个风险因素被低估，那就是在当前环境下金融和经济状况会以多快的速度恶化，会对股市造成怎样的冲击。di Galoma表示经济恶化速度“正在加速，而且会比人们想象的要快得多”，他预计美国经济将在 2023年初陷入衰退，并且“这次衰退将非常严重”。Mathews同样指出，美联储的货币政策就是另一个“关键冲击”，可能会对股票市盈率造成影响。当前美联储仍旧准备继续激进“收水”，从下月开始缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，并在6月和7月两次会议上分别加息50个基点。但现在的情况是，投资者正在试图忽略加息的影响。此前在5月初当美联储主席鲍威尔表示未积极考虑加息75个基点，市场随即欢呼雀跃，然而在第二天就开始“回归现实”，导致道指狂泻千点，纳指暴跌5%，标普500指数重挫3.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":124716002,"gmtCreate":1624791483706,"gmtModify":1703845202768,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124716002","repostId":"1182411664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182411664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624761673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182411664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The national carbon trading market is about to open, and institutions point out five major investment directions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182411664","media":"上海证券报","summary":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。","content":"<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market approaches, related concept stocks have also changed. On June 25, the carbon neutrality, energy conservation and environmental protection sectors were active. As of the close, many stocks such as Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, and Meijin Energy had their daily limit, while stocks such as Debang Lighting, Kaier New Materials, and Zhiguang Electric rose one after another. Recently, securities firms have also intensively released research reports to focus on the investment opportunities brought by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that the launch of the national carbon market will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries, and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. Carbon trading scale will climb rapidly National Carbon Market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The national carbon trading market is about to open, and institutions point out five major investment directions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe national carbon trading market is about to open, and institutions point out five major investment directions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>As the opening of the national carbon trading market approaches, related concept stocks have also changed. On June 25, the carbon neutrality, energy conservation and environmental protection sectors were active. As of the close, many stocks such as Tianwo Technology, Hunan Tianyan, and Meijin Energy had their daily limit, while stocks such as Debang Lighting, Kaier New Materials, and Zhiguang Electric rose one after another. Recently, securities firms have also intensively released research reports to focus on the investment opportunities brought by the carbon trading market. Most institutions believe that the launch of the national carbon market will have an impact on the investment and production decisions of society, industries, and enterprises, and many fields such as new energy and renewable resource recycling are expected to benefit. Carbon trading scale will climb rapidly National Carbon Market...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8eab65ec7981d9d3c6a4d13a066308","relate_stocks":{"300234":"开尔新材","600698":"湖南天雁","603303":"得邦照明","002564":"天沃科技","002169":"智光电气","000723":"美锦能源"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CdJFesr-SWj4G8AzdeeXSw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182411664","content_text":"随着全国碳交易市场开启日益临近，相关概念股也纷纷异动。\n6月25日，碳中和、节能环保板块表现活跃。截至收盘，天沃科技、湖南天雁、美锦能源等多股涨停，得邦照明、开尔新材、智光电气等个股纷纷拉升。\n\n近期，券商也密集发布研报关注碳交易市场带来的投资机会。多数机构认为，全国碳市场启动后，将对社会、行业、企业的投资生产决策产生影响，新能源、可再生资源回收等多领域有望受益。\n碳交易规模将迅速攀升\n全国碳市场启动之后，市场规模究竟有多大？\n据首创证券预计，2021年我国碳交易市场成交量或将达到2.5亿吨，为2020年各个试点交易所交易总量的3倍，成交金额将达60亿元。未来，我国碳市场覆盖范围将逐步扩大，到2030年累计交易额或将超过1000亿元。\n“伴随双碳目标逐步实现、控排覆盖企业增加以及碳交易市场成熟，我们推测碳交易规模将迅速攀升，仅碳排放现货交易一项，市场规模就有望于2030年突破千亿元。”中航证券高端制造团队指出。\n此外，机构认为碳交易市场正式上线后，有望带来碳交易量价齐升。中航证券高端制造团队表示，当前国内的碳交易成交量及价格显著低于国际水平，而全国碳交易系统建立将有助于提高市场活力，刺激企业向清洁能源转型，提高碳价格。\n“碳价格作为成本可能传递至电力、钢铁、水泥、炼油等行业。涉及碳交易的龙头企业一般具有技术和规模优势，碳价格对龙头公司影响较小。”平安证券分析师樊金璐表示。\n新能源企业利润有望增厚\n天风证券研究所环保与公用行业首席分析师郭丽丽认为，全国碳市场首批纳入仅是2000多家电力企业，对于不同类型的电力企业影响不一。对于火电企业，短期业绩压力不大，而中长期面临向非化石能源转型的压力较大；对于新能源运营企业，CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）有望增厚其收益，盈利能力或进一步提升。\n华西证券环保公用团队同样看好新能源企业后续业绩空间。其认为，“免费发放+拍卖”相结合的配额分配是未来碳市场发展方向，若未来碳配额价格能够较好地体现经济价值，则新能源运营企业将获得丰厚的额外碳配额交易收入，实现价值重估。\n“新能源发电商价值有望重估，我们按2019年数据测算，将增厚新能源发电利润9%至17%。”华泰证券表示，长期看好新能源发电前景，但是对于火电也不必过度悲观，火电仍具备压舱石效应，行稳致远。\n机构：关注五大投资方向\n机构普遍认为，碳排放权交易是生态环境价值的体现，也是未来一段时间碳达峰、碳中和行动的核心工作。那么从长期投资角度来看，应该关注哪些机遇？\n国盛证券表示，碳交易全国推广，一方面将推动碳排放负外部性利益化，促进碳减排合理、高效、平稳实现。另一方面，立足全球视角，碳关税或将成为长期趋势，碳交易推广也将助力国际贸易全球化。具体而言，可以关注五大投资方向：\n一是高碳排行业集中度提升，龙头优势加速凸显，推荐关注钢铁、金属非金属新材料、工业金属、化学制品、装修装饰和其他建材等细分行业头部企业。\n二是零碳排新能源再获动力，推荐关注光伏、风电、核电、水电等电力细分领域优质标的。\n三是负碳排板块将受益于CCER（国家核证自愿减排量）推广，推荐关注林业碳汇、垃圾处理等相关投资机遇。\n四是碳配额分配与碳交易覆盖度提升均将激发碳排放监测需求，推荐关注环保监测设备、环保工程及服务。\n五是未来有望迎来碳金融产品创新与推广的新发展阶段，推荐关注银行金融板块及碳金融衍生品相关投资机遇。\n此外，首创证券认为，以数字化和信息化为载体的智慧环保将深度赋能碳市场与碳交易。智慧环保是优质赛道，且处于行业生命周期中的快速成长期，相关公司将享受市场爆发的红利。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300234":0.9,"600698":0.9,"603303":0.9,"002564":0.9,"000723":0.9,"002169":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882722,"gmtCreate":1627358120366,"gmtModify":1703488322168,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809882722","repostId":"1150761427","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096754964,"gmtCreate":1644469679558,"gmtModify":1676533930815,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096754964","repostId":"1164007651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036256654,"gmtCreate":1647131761413,"gmtModify":1676534196311,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036256654","repostId":"2218241000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196228959,"gmtCreate":1621059901071,"gmtModify":1704352600497,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196228959","repostId":"2135983438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","text":"Stay calm. . It's important. .","html":"Stay calm. . It's important. ."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124093614,"gmtCreate":1624703134738,"gmtModify":1703843899134,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124093614","repostId":"1125653339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039991087,"gmtCreate":1645866831994,"gmtModify":1676534071609,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No&nbsp;","listText":"No&nbsp;","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039991087","repostId":"1168359400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"25bp is better than 50bp！","text":"25bp is better than 50bp！","html":"25bp is better than 50bp！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375852643,"gmtCreate":1619326441682,"gmtModify":1704722498292,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375852643","repostId":"1180924199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"Not good. . .","text":"Not good. . .","html":"Not good. . ."},{"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"content":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","text":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]","html":"Are you my friend, every time I just buy the share... You said will drop [Cry] [Cry] [Cry]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105832391,"gmtCreate":1620287805713,"gmtModify":1704341363747,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105832391","repostId":"1180972135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","text":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries.","html":"The government's move is to popularize safe and effective vaccines as soon as possible and end the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. She also said that the US government will continue to strengthen cooperation with the private sector and all possible partners, expand the manufacture and distribution of vaccines, and strive to increase the raw materials needed to produce these vaccines. This move by the United States may expand the global supply of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccines and narrow the vaccination gap between rich and poor countries."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132361379,"gmtCreate":1622072693791,"gmtModify":1704178783783,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577343858256661","authorIdStr":"3577343858256661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132361379","repostId":"1116624470","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576579618783903","authorId":"3576579618783903","name":"爱上投资学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e312fbf8df67faa6e46a19ef6992c34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576579618783903","authorIdStr":"3576579618783903"},"content":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","text":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!","html":"$Ideal Car (LI) $, hope it will risk 20%!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}