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长不高的韭菜

长不高的韭菜

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长不高的韭菜

2024-07-25

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长不高的韭菜

2022-12-25

[微笑]

Tip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets

长不高的韭菜

2022-12-18

。

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长不高的韭菜

2022-11-23

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长不高的韭菜

2022-03-27

😄

Be careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks

长不高的韭菜

2022-02-08

😶

Bank of America's "amazing" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160777906","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"尊敬的投資者：聖誕節長假期已經來到，美股、港股等市場的交易活動會受到影響。請留意股市休市時間，並提前安排好您的投資計劃。聖誕節期間股市交易安排美股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。港股：2022年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Dear Investors:</b></p><p>The long Christmas holiday has arrived, and trading activities in U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks and other markets will be affected. Please pay attention to when the stock market is closed and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p>Stock Market Trading Arrangements During Christmas</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p>The market will be closed on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Singapore Stock Market:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the Australian market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>New Zealand Market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the New Zealand market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets:</b></p><p>The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Dear Investors:</b></p><p>The long Christmas holiday has arrived, and trading activities in U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks and other markets will be affected. Please pay attention to when the stock market is closed and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p>Stock Market Trading Arrangements During Christmas</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p>The market will be closed on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Singapore Stock Market:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the Australian market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>New Zealand Market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the New Zealand market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets:</b></p><p>The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e029cf8d7c318d1de45f38c9aaf8eeb7","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160777906","content_text":"尊敬的投資者：聖誕節長假期已經來到，美股、港股等市場的交易活動會受到影響。請留意股市休市時間，並提前安排好您的投資計劃。聖誕節期間股市交易安排美股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。港股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。2022年12月27日（週二）休市。新加坡股市：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。澳洲市場：除節禮日之外，澳洲市場將於當地時間2022年12月26日（週一）和 2022年12月27日（週二）休市。新西蘭市場：除節禮日之外，新西蘭市場將於當地時間2022年12月26日（週一）和2022年12月27日（週二）休市。滬深兩市：滬深兩市照常交易。滬股通、深股通：2022年12月26日（週一）不提供服務。2022年12月27日（週二）不提供服務。港股通：2022年12月26日（週一）不提供服務。2022年12月27日（週二）不提供服務。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928243193,"gmtCreate":1671300548312,"gmtModify":1676538521853,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928243193","repostId":"1101853372","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968620901,"gmtCreate":1669214445203,"gmtModify":1676538168248,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"8","listText":"8","text":"8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968620901","repostId":"2285439848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010219210,"gmtCreate":1648391800136,"gmtModify":1676534333371,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010219210","repostId":"1158389713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158389713","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1648372229,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158389713?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 17:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Be careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158389713","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本周美债收益率上涨至创纪录水平，击破长牛技术趋势线，第三轮债券大熊市来临，创1949年以来最差回报。然而美股不受影响继续走高。这引起了华尔街的警觉，分析师表示，对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。本","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. bond yields rose to record levels this week, breaking long bull technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>, the third round of the bond bear market is coming, with the worst return since 1949. However, U.S. stocks continued to rise unaffected. That alarmed Wall Street, with analysts saying it was only a matter of time before interest rate-sensitive investments were repriced. This week, a record sell-off in the U.S. bond market pushed U.S. bond yields above a threshold that could mark the end of a decades-long bull market.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to nearly 2.5% on Friday, its highest level since May 2019 and up a full percentage point since early December, as the Federal Reserve prepares to enter an aggressive rate hike cycle.<b>Compared with previous cycles of monetary policy tightening, this increase is much faster and greater, and it has broken a reliable technical trend line since the late 1980s.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7399224c0beda1efbb3f8f07362334\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may still pull back, as the Federal Reserve faces its largest inflation surge since the 1980s, tight labor markets lead to higher wages, and new commodity price shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war,<b>A growing number of analysts expect U.S. bond yields to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve steadily raises interest rates in the coming months.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that mainstream Wall Street investment banks are increasingly betting on the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The Federal Reserve's rate hike in May and June are expected to be 50 basis points each.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Bank of America also expect multiple rate hike of 50 basis points this year, and even four consecutive sharp rate hike.</p><p>By Friday, the hawkish outlook became the consensus: Futures pricing reflected that the Fed will rate hike by about two percentage points over the next six meetings.</p><p><b>To make matters worse, short-term bond yields have also surged, and will rise faster than long-term bond yields</b>, the unknown signal that caused the key term yield curve to invert may be about to reappear.</p><p>The 2-year U.S. bond yield was close to 2.33% in early U.S. stock trading on Friday, approaching the top of 2.3736% on May 3, 2019. Goldman Sachs predicts that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2.60% as soon as next quarter, when the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields will be inverted.</p><p>However, it turns out that,<b>Whether it's war, the pandemic, inflation, or even the warning of core recession signals, it seems that it can't stop U.S. stocks from doing what they almost always have done for 13 years: rising.</b>This week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq rose 1.98%, the S&P rose 1.79%, and the Dow rose 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60921f57b5cd1d625f4213360123c7db\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just a few weeks ago, the inversion of part of the U.S. bond curve would have raised fears of a recession and sent stocks down. This week, U.S. stocks hardly felt this fear.</p><p><b>There are many different explanations for the resilient performance of the market.</b>One explanation is that the market's perception of the Fed's hawkish statement has been \"blunted\". Meanwhile, profit estimates have improved this year, with some speculating that stocks may have acted as a hedge against inflation. Others argue that markets are happy to see the Fed take its mandate of fighting inflation seriously, citing the long-term benefits it will bring to the economy.</p><p>Wall Street: Markets Shouldn't Ignore Bond Market Risks</p><p><b>However, U.S. stocks ignored the risks of the bond market, which still alerted Wall Street.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, strategists at Mizuho International Plc have warned that risky assets will ultimately fail to withstand the dramatic impact of higher discount rates and economic growth will not withstand. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p>Janet Mui, head of market analysis at investment firm Brewin Dolphin Ltd., said:</p><p>\"Judging from the performance of risky assets, the market seems to think that such (U.S. bond yields) levels will not trigger a recession and damage risky assets. I think there is some complacency in the market.\"<b>As one of the key drivers of cross-asset valuation, real yields indicate a growing divergence in market sentiment from what is actually happening.</b>Inflation-adjusted real yields are rising, which is theoretically a reason for investors to reduce their holdings of high-growth stocks with higher valuations and earnings potential in the future. However, the opposite is happening.</p><p>Since March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>A basket of software stocks has risen nearly 20%. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. real yields have surged to levels that triggered a sell-off in January.</p><p>Investors may be less sensitive to risks in the U.S. bond market this time around, while healthy earnings growth expectations point to a strong U.S. economy.</p><p>Luke Hickmore, head of investment at investment firm abrdn, said:</p><p>\"Investors are looking more into the future now, when real and nominal yields will indeed be higher, but not high enough to make it worth selling more shares at current levels.\" Technical factors may also play a role.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The strategist said: \"<b>In the past two weeks, the rebalancing of the allocation targets of pensions and sovereign wealth funds from bonds to stocks may have supported the stock market and damaged the bond market.</b>”</p><p>But there aren't many pending rebalancing processes, he said. If bond yields continue to rise, stocks will look more vulnerable.</p><p>According to Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho,<b>It's only a matter of time before the market reprices interest-sensitive investments.</b>He said:</p><p>\"We believe that a 2.75% rate (the Fed's forecast for the benchmark rate at the end of 2023) will be highly restrictive for the U.S. economy and equally so for the global economy, slowly but surely risk premiums will rise and earnings expectations should moderate.\" Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both see terminal rates around 3% and 3.25%-which could impact risk valuations.</p><p>Brooking dolphin Janet Mui believes that,<b>If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 3%, the market will face a painful barrier.</b></p><p>Mui says:</p><p>\"The risk of a recession remains low, but it is increasing as we move towards 2023. A breakout to 3% will allow investors to reconsider and begin to prepare for a'recession or a longer-term slowdown. '\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said:</p><p>\"Now interest rate volatility leads to growth volatility, which actually creates an a vicious circle. This is quite different from the previous cycle, where growth volatility drove interest rate volatility.\" However, according to data compiled by Bank of America,<b>U.S. government bond returns could be set for their worst record since 1949, a year after the Marshall Plan was implemented, and the third bond bear market is underway</b>。 Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that negative yield bonds have quietly disappeared, from about $18 trillion to less than $2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b43f4829253cdab0ba74bb2247c846\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the stampede on risky assets continues. Compiled by Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Fund data shows that,<b>So far this year, eight times more money has flowed into the stock market than into the bond market.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, said:</p><p>\"In the end, it seems that only when economic growth slows and the market is worried about a possible recession will U.S. bond yields stop rising and stocks will face greater pressure. It is difficult to determine when it will happen.\"</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-27 17:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. bond yields rose to record levels this week, breaking long bull technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>, the third round of the bond bear market is coming, with the worst return since 1949. However, U.S. stocks continued to rise unaffected. That alarmed Wall Street, with analysts saying it was only a matter of time before interest rate-sensitive investments were repriced. This week, a record sell-off in the U.S. bond market pushed U.S. bond yields above a threshold that could mark the end of a decades-long bull market.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to nearly 2.5% on Friday, its highest level since May 2019 and up a full percentage point since early December, as the Federal Reserve prepares to enter an aggressive rate hike cycle.<b>Compared with previous cycles of monetary policy tightening, this increase is much faster and greater, and it has broken a reliable technical trend line since the late 1980s.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7399224c0beda1efbb3f8f07362334\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may still pull back, as the Federal Reserve faces its largest inflation surge since the 1980s, tight labor markets lead to higher wages, and new commodity price shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war,<b>A growing number of analysts expect U.S. bond yields to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve steadily raises interest rates in the coming months.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that mainstream Wall Street investment banks are increasingly betting on the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The Federal Reserve's rate hike in May and June are expected to be 50 basis points each.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Bank of America also expect multiple rate hike of 50 basis points this year, and even four consecutive sharp rate hike.</p><p>By Friday, the hawkish outlook became the consensus: Futures pricing reflected that the Fed will rate hike by about two percentage points over the next six meetings.</p><p><b>To make matters worse, short-term bond yields have also surged, and will rise faster than long-term bond yields</b>, the unknown signal that caused the key term yield curve to invert may be about to reappear.</p><p>The 2-year U.S. bond yield was close to 2.33% in early U.S. stock trading on Friday, approaching the top of 2.3736% on May 3, 2019. Goldman Sachs predicts that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2.60% as soon as next quarter, when the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields will be inverted.</p><p>However, it turns out that,<b>Whether it's war, the pandemic, inflation, or even the warning of core recession signals, it seems that it can't stop U.S. stocks from doing what they almost always have done for 13 years: rising.</b>This week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq rose 1.98%, the S&P rose 1.79%, and the Dow rose 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60921f57b5cd1d625f4213360123c7db\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just a few weeks ago, the inversion of part of the U.S. bond curve would have raised fears of a recession and sent stocks down. This week, U.S. stocks hardly felt this fear.</p><p><b>There are many different explanations for the resilient performance of the market.</b>One explanation is that the market's perception of the Fed's hawkish statement has been \"blunted\". Meanwhile, profit estimates have improved this year, with some speculating that stocks may have acted as a hedge against inflation. Others argue that markets are happy to see the Fed take its mandate of fighting inflation seriously, citing the long-term benefits it will bring to the economy.</p><p>Wall Street: Markets Shouldn't Ignore Bond Market Risks</p><p><b>However, U.S. stocks ignored the risks of the bond market, which still alerted Wall Street.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, strategists at Mizuho International Plc have warned that risky assets will ultimately fail to withstand the dramatic impact of higher discount rates and economic growth will not withstand. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p>Janet Mui, head of market analysis at investment firm Brewin Dolphin Ltd., said:</p><p>\"Judging from the performance of risky assets, the market seems to think that such (U.S. bond yields) levels will not trigger a recession and damage risky assets. I think there is some complacency in the market.\"<b>As one of the key drivers of cross-asset valuation, real yields indicate a growing divergence in market sentiment from what is actually happening.</b>Inflation-adjusted real yields are rising, which is theoretically a reason for investors to reduce their holdings of high-growth stocks with higher valuations and earnings potential in the future. However, the opposite is happening.</p><p>Since March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>A basket of software stocks has risen nearly 20%. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. real yields have surged to levels that triggered a sell-off in January.</p><p>Investors may be less sensitive to risks in the U.S. bond market this time around, while healthy earnings growth expectations point to a strong U.S. economy.</p><p>Luke Hickmore, head of investment at investment firm abrdn, said:</p><p>\"Investors are looking more into the future now, when real and nominal yields will indeed be higher, but not high enough to make it worth selling more shares at current levels.\" Technical factors may also play a role.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The strategist said: \"<b>In the past two weeks, the rebalancing of the allocation targets of pensions and sovereign wealth funds from bonds to stocks may have supported the stock market and damaged the bond market.</b>”</p><p>But there aren't many pending rebalancing processes, he said. If bond yields continue to rise, stocks will look more vulnerable.</p><p>According to Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho,<b>It's only a matter of time before the market reprices interest-sensitive investments.</b>He said:</p><p>\"We believe that a 2.75% rate (the Fed's forecast for the benchmark rate at the end of 2023) will be highly restrictive for the U.S. economy and equally so for the global economy, slowly but surely risk premiums will rise and earnings expectations should moderate.\" Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both see terminal rates around 3% and 3.25%-which could impact risk valuations.</p><p>Brooking dolphin Janet Mui believes that,<b>If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 3%, the market will face a painful barrier.</b></p><p>Mui says:</p><p>\"The risk of a recession remains low, but it is increasing as we move towards 2023. A breakout to 3% will allow investors to reconsider and begin to prepare for a'recession or a longer-term slowdown. '\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said:</p><p>\"Now interest rate volatility leads to growth volatility, which actually creates an a vicious circle. This is quite different from the previous cycle, where growth volatility drove interest rate volatility.\" However, according to data compiled by Bank of America,<b>U.S. government bond returns could be set for their worst record since 1949, a year after the Marshall Plan was implemented, and the third bond bear market is underway</b>。 Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that negative yield bonds have quietly disappeared, from about $18 trillion to less than $2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b43f4829253cdab0ba74bb2247c846\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the stampede on risky assets continues. Compiled by Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Fund data shows that,<b>So far this year, eight times more money has flowed into the stock market than into the bond market.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, said:</p><p>\"In the end, it seems that only when economic growth slows and the market is worried about a possible recession will U.S. bond yields stop rising and stocks will face greater pressure. It is difficult to determine when it will happen.\"</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158389713","content_text":"本周美债收益率上涨至创纪录水平，击破长牛技术趋势线，第三轮债券大熊市来临，创1949年以来最差回报。然而美股不受影响继续走高。这引起了华尔街的警觉，分析师表示，对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。本周，美债市场创纪录的抛售，推动美债收益率突破了一个可能标志着数十年牛市结束的关口。随着美联储准备进入激进的加息周期，周五10年期美债收益率飙升至近2.5%，为2019年5月以来的最高水平，并且自12月初以来上涨了整整一个百分点。与前几轮货币政策紧缩周期相比，这一升幅要快得多，幅度也大得多，并且已经击破了自1980年代末以来的一条可靠的技术趋势线。虽然10年期美债收益率可能还会回调，但随着美联储正面临自1980年代以来最大的通胀飙升，劳动力市场紧张导致工资上涨，以及俄乌战事带来新的商品价格冲击，越来越多的分析师预计，随着美联储未来几个月稳步提高利率，美债收益率将继续上升。华尔街见闻此前提及，主流华尔街投行越来越多地押注今年美联储激进加息，高盛预计美联储5、6月各加息50基点，花旗和美银也预计今年将多次加息50个基点，甚至连续四次大幅加息。到周五，鹰派前景成为共识：期货定价反映出，未来六次会议美联储将加息约两个百分点。更糟糕的是，短债收益率也大幅飙升，并且上升幅度将快于长债收益率，导致关键期限收益率曲线倒挂这一不详的信号可能即将再次出现。周五2年期美债收益率在美股早盘一度接近2.33%，逼近2019年5月3日顶部2.3736%。高盛预计，2年期美债收益率最快在下个季度达到2.60%，届时2年期和10年期美债收益率就会出现倒挂。然而，事实证明，无论是战争、疫情还是通胀，乃至核心衰退信号拉响警告，似乎都无法阻止美股做它们13年来几乎总是做的事情：上涨。本周美股三大指数均连续第二周累计上涨，纳指涨1.98%，标普涨1.79%，道指涨0.31%。就在几周前，部分美债曲线倒挂还会引发对经济衰退的担忧，并导致股市下跌。而本周美股几乎感受不到这种恐惧。对于市场的弹性表现，有很多不同的解释。一种解释是，市场对于美联储的鹰派表述的感知已经“钝化”。与此同时，今年以来的利润预期有所提高，一些人猜测股票可能起到了对冲通胀的作用。也有人认为，市场很高兴看到美联储认真对待其抗击通胀的任务，理由是这将为经济带来长期利益。华尔街：市场不应无视债券市场的风险然而，美股无视债券市场的风险，还是让华尔街有所警觉。据彭博，瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)的策略师警告称，风险资产最终将无法抵御贴现率上升的巨大影响，经济增长也将无法抵御。即随着美联储开始大步收紧政策，股市似乎不得不做出一些让步。投资公司布鲁金海豚（Brewin Dolphin Ltd.）的市场分析主管Janet Mui表示：“从风险资产的表现来看，市场似乎认为这样的（美债收益率）水平不会引发经济衰退并损害风险资产。我认为市场存在一定的自满。”作为跨资产估值的关键驱动因素之一，实际收益率表明了市场情绪与实际情况日益严重的背离。经通胀调整后的实际收益率正在上升，从理论上讲，这是投资者减持估值较高、盈利潜力在于未来的高成长股票的一个理由。然而，相反的情况正在发生。自3月16日以来，富国银行一篮子软件类股票已上涨近20%。与此同时，基准美国实际收益率已飙升至曾在1月引发抛售的水平。投资者这一次可能对美债市场的风险不那么敏感了，而健康的收益增长预期表明美国经济强劲。投资公司abrdn的投资主管Luke Hickmore表示：“投资者现在更多将目光投向未来，那时实际收益率和名义收益率确实将更高，但还没有高到值得在当前水平卖出更多股票的程度。”技术因素也可能起到了作用。摩根大通策略师表示：“过去两周，（养老金和主权财富基金配置目标的）再平衡从债券流向股票可能支撑了股市并损害了债市。”但他表示，现在已经没有太多待定的再平衡流程。如果债券收益率继续上升，股市看起来将会更加脆弱。瑞穗多元资产策略主管Peter Chatwell认为，市场对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。他说：“我们认为，2.75%的利率（美联储对2023年底基准利率的预测）将对美国经济具有高度限制性，对全球经济同样如此，缓慢但肯定的是，风险溢价将上升，收益预期应会放缓。”高盛和美银的策略师都认为最终利率在3%和3.25%左右——这可能会影响风险估值。布鲁金海豚Janet Mui认为，如果10年期美债收益率达到3%，市场将面临一个痛苦的关口。Mui说：“经济衰退的风险仍然很低，但随着我们迈向2023年，这种风险正在增加。突破至3%将使投资者重新考虑，并开始为‘经济衰退或更长期的放缓’做准备。”高盛集团投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理Christian Mueller-Glissmann说：“现在利率波动会导致增长波动，这实际上会形成恶性循环。这与上一个周期有很大的不同，上一个周期是增长波动驱动利率波动。”不过，根据美银汇编的数据，美国政府债券的回报率可能将创下自1949年马歇尔计划实施一年后以来的最差纪录，第三次债券大熊市正在进行。美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett指出，负收益率债券已悄然消失，从约18万亿美元降至不到2万亿美元。目前，对风险资产的踩踏仍在继续。彭博汇编的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金数据显示，今年迄今，流入股市的资金比流入债市的资金多8倍。BlueBay资产管理公司首席投资官Mark Dowding表示：“最终看来，只有经济增长放缓，且市场担心可能出现衰退，美债收益率才会停止上升，股市才会面临更大压力。很难确定何时会发生。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLT":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096109078,"gmtCreate":1644321056953,"gmtModify":1676533912075,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😶","listText":"😶","text":"😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096109078","repostId":"2209451307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209451307","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644311979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209451307?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-08 17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209451307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Rising wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Federal Reserve. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the average hourly wage in January increased by 0.7% month-on-month.<b>The increase in the past 12 months was 5.7%, the fastest pace since March 2007</b>(except for the early two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind inflation in terms of policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were the Fed chairman, I would be even more concerned that the factors driving wages higher are more than just exceptions and raise interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there are widespread price increases that begin to affect wages, the risk of an inflation spiral increases, and policy measures lag behind the inflation curve, the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made the most aggressive call to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest Bank of America report pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, each with a rate hike of 25 basis points, and four rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view believes that the possibility of this situation is only 18%, he still supports this view.<b>The main reasons are:</b>The U.S. economic recovery has not only reached the Fed's goal, but even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring across almost all income brackets</p><p>During the conference call, Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020. The Fed said that under its flexible average inflation target, in order to achieve full employment, it allows inflation to be higher than its 2% target.</p><p>But as the inflation rate grows to around 7% and the labor market becomes increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve is now accelerating its \"catch-up\" and changing monetary policy to cope with the severe inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across almost every income bracket.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, saw the largest wage increases,</b>It has risen by 13% in the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose by 4.8%, while wages in the retail sector rose by 7.1%.</p><p>Previous news articles mentioned that salary increases are \"blossoming in an all-round way.\" In addition to raising wages for middle and low-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions are also \"chasing after each other\" to increase employee salaries. Biden also issued an executive order to increase the minimum wage for federal employees last month. to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the'great resignation wave '</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave\", which refers to the sharp increase in the number of resignations in the United States since 2021, and the turnover rate is at the highest level in nearly 20 years. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of U.S. labor changes or departures in 2021 was 47.4 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle point out in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interrelated trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying employment opportunities. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of a spiraling wage inflation.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs data shows that wage growth in the United States will slow down this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach about 5% this year.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that labor costs are growing faster than the 2% inflation target, which may keep inflation higher and the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive response.</p><p>Rate hike 50 basis points'reasonable 'but inconsistent with Powell's'humble' attitude</p><p>The market has been slowly overweighting the Fed's rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but more rate hike is still possible, and at a faster pace. Although traders generally expect the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike in March, it does not rule out the Fed choosing a one-time sharp 50 basis point rate hike in March<b>, the likelihood of a rate hike of 50 basis points has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>Rate hike of 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing\", but it is inconsistent with the \"humble\" attitude supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Federal Reserve policy has lagged behind and hopes they can regain their inflation rhetoric and control wage growth. Earlier, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delay, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening policies.</p><p>In addition, Harris pointed out,<b>Actually, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends accurate messages that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that this rate hike cycle may be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed conducted 17 consecutive rate hike in order to cool the runaway housing market. Referring to the expected 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This isn't an aggressive forecast, it's just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-08 17:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Rising wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Federal Reserve. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the average hourly wage in January increased by 0.7% month-on-month.<b>The increase in the past 12 months was 5.7%, the fastest pace since March 2007</b>(except for the early two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind inflation in terms of policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were the Fed chairman, I would be even more concerned that the factors driving wages higher are more than just exceptions and raise interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there are widespread price increases that begin to affect wages, the risk of an inflation spiral increases, and policy measures lag behind the inflation curve, the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made the most aggressive call to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest Bank of America report pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, each with a rate hike of 25 basis points, and four rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view believes that the possibility of this situation is only 18%, he still supports this view.<b>The main reasons are:</b>The U.S. economic recovery has not only reached the Fed's goal, but even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring across almost all income brackets</p><p>During the conference call, Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020. The Fed said that under its flexible average inflation target, in order to achieve full employment, it allows inflation to be higher than its 2% target.</p><p>But as the inflation rate grows to around 7% and the labor market becomes increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve is now accelerating its \"catch-up\" and changing monetary policy to cope with the severe inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across almost every income bracket.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, saw the largest wage increases,</b>It has risen by 13% in the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose by 4.8%, while wages in the retail sector rose by 7.1%.</p><p>Previous news articles mentioned that salary increases are \"blossoming in an all-round way.\" In addition to raising wages for middle and low-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions are also \"chasing after each other\" to increase employee salaries. Biden also issued an executive order to increase the minimum wage for federal employees last month. to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the'great resignation wave '</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave\", which refers to the sharp increase in the number of resignations in the United States since 2021, and the turnover rate is at the highest level in nearly 20 years. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of U.S. labor changes or departures in 2021 was 47.4 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle point out in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interrelated trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying employment opportunities. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of a spiraling wage inflation.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs data shows that wage growth in the United States will slow down this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach about 5% this year.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that labor costs are growing faster than the 2% inflation target, which may keep inflation higher and the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive response.</p><p>Rate hike 50 basis points'reasonable 'but inconsistent with Powell's'humble' attitude</p><p>The market has been slowly overweighting the Fed's rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but more rate hike is still possible, and at a faster pace. Although traders generally expect the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike in March, it does not rule out the Fed choosing a one-time sharp 50 basis point rate hike in March<b>, the likelihood of a rate hike of 50 basis points has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>Rate hike of 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing\", but it is inconsistent with the \"humble\" attitude supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Federal Reserve policy has lagged behind and hopes they can regain their inflation rhetoric and control wage growth. Earlier, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delay, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening policies.</p><p>In addition, Harris pointed out,<b>Actually, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends accurate messages that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that this rate hike cycle may be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed conducted 17 consecutive rate hike in order to cool the runaway housing market. Referring to the expected 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This isn't an aggressive forecast, it's just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209451307","content_text":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管Ethan Harris在与CNBC的电话会议中表示：如果我是美联储主席，我会更加担心推动工资上涨的因素不仅仅是例外情况，并在秋天早些时候提高利率。当存在广泛的物价上涨，并开始影响到工资，通胀螺旋风险加大，政策措施就落后于通胀曲线，美联储需要开始行动。Harris对美联储发出了今年以来最激进的呼吁，美银最新报告指出，2022年将有七次加息，每次加息25个基点，明年还会有四次加息。对此，Harris指出，尽管目前市场观点认为这种情况的可能性只有18%，但他依然支持这个观点，主要原因在于：美国经济复苏不仅达到了美联储的目标，甚至还超过了停止线(the stop signs)。几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升Harris在电话会议中提及美联储2020年9月批准的货币政策新方法。美联储表示，在灵活的平均通胀目标下，为了实现充分就业，允许通胀率高于2%的目标。但随着通胀率增长到7%左右，劳动力市场越来越紧张，美联储现在加速“追赶”，改变货币政策进而应对严峻的通胀形势。Harris指出，几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升。受疫情影响最严重的休闲和酒店行业工资增幅最大，在过去一年的上涨了13%。金融行业的工资上涨了4.8%，而零售行业的工资更是上涨了7.1%。此前见闻文章提及，加薪“全面开花”，除了中低阶层工人提高了工资，华尔街金融机构也“你追我赶”地增加员工薪资，拜登上个月还发布了上调联邦雇员的最低工资至15美元的行政命令。工资飙升是“大辞职潮”的一部分高盛将工资飙升这一趋势视为“大辞职潮”的一部分，“大辞职潮”是指2021年以来，美国离职人数陡增，离职率处于近20年来最高水平。根据美国劳工部数据，2021年全年美国劳动力更换或离职次数为4740万人次。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs和David Mericle在一份报告中指出，“大辞职潮”包括两个截然不同但相互关联的趋势：数百万工人离开了劳动力大军，还有数百万人为了更好、更高收入的就业机会而辞职。这些趋势已将工资涨幅推至一个越来越令人担忧的水平，即工资通胀螺旋上升。高盛数据显示，今年美国工资增长将会放缓，但只是小幅放缓，到今年预计会达到5%左右。值得一提的是，高盛预计，2022年将有四次加息。高盛经济学家指出，劳动力成本的增长速度快于2%的通胀目标，这可能会使通胀继续走高，美联储将采取更激进的应对措施。加息50个基点“合理”，但与鲍威尔“谦逊”态度不一致市场一直在缓慢地加码美联储加息，预计今年将有五次加息，但仍有可能加息更多次，而且速度更快。尽管交易员普遍预计美联储将在3月份加息25个基点，但也不排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点，目前加息50个基点的可能性已升至近30%。Harris表示：加息50个基点将是\"一件合理的事情\"，但这与美联储主席鲍威尔在1月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上所支持的\"谦逊\"（humble）态度不一致。安联集团首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一在CNBC的Squawk Box节目中表示，美联储政策已经落后，希望他们能重拾通胀论调，控制工资增长。此前，El-Erian在专栏文章中发出警告，越拖延，政策收紧的风险就越大。美联储和欧央行非但不能确保经济软着陆，反而可能被迫采取过度的“追赶性”紧缩政策。此外，Harris指出，实际上，他不认为加息会破坏经济，只要美联储传达出准确的信息，即加息旨在控制通胀，而不是遏制经济增长。Harris补充称，本轮加息周期可能类似于美联储在2005年中期的举措，当时美联储连续17次加息，目的是为失控的房地产市场降温。谈到预计到2023年将加息11次时，Harris表示：这并不是一个激进的预测，对于一个从零开始的央行来说，这只是一条阻力较小的道路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9010219210,"gmtCreate":1648391800136,"gmtModify":1676534333371,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010219210","repostId":"1158389713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158389713","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1648372229,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158389713?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 17:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Be careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158389713","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本周美债收益率上涨至创纪录水平，击破长牛技术趋势线，第三轮债券大熊市来临，创1949年以来最差回报。然而美股不受影响继续走高。这引起了华尔街的警觉，分析师表示，对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。本","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. bond yields rose to record levels this week, breaking long bull technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>, the third round of the bond bear market is coming, with the worst return since 1949. However, U.S. stocks continued to rise unaffected. That alarmed Wall Street, with analysts saying it was only a matter of time before interest rate-sensitive investments were repriced. This week, a record sell-off in the U.S. bond market pushed U.S. bond yields above a threshold that could mark the end of a decades-long bull market.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to nearly 2.5% on Friday, its highest level since May 2019 and up a full percentage point since early December, as the Federal Reserve prepares to enter an aggressive rate hike cycle.<b>Compared with previous cycles of monetary policy tightening, this increase is much faster and greater, and it has broken a reliable technical trend line since the late 1980s.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7399224c0beda1efbb3f8f07362334\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may still pull back, as the Federal Reserve faces its largest inflation surge since the 1980s, tight labor markets lead to higher wages, and new commodity price shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war,<b>A growing number of analysts expect U.S. bond yields to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve steadily raises interest rates in the coming months.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that mainstream Wall Street investment banks are increasingly betting on the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The Federal Reserve's rate hike in May and June are expected to be 50 basis points each.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Bank of America also expect multiple rate hike of 50 basis points this year, and even four consecutive sharp rate hike.</p><p>By Friday, the hawkish outlook became the consensus: Futures pricing reflected that the Fed will rate hike by about two percentage points over the next six meetings.</p><p><b>To make matters worse, short-term bond yields have also surged, and will rise faster than long-term bond yields</b>, the unknown signal that caused the key term yield curve to invert may be about to reappear.</p><p>The 2-year U.S. bond yield was close to 2.33% in early U.S. stock trading on Friday, approaching the top of 2.3736% on May 3, 2019. Goldman Sachs predicts that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2.60% as soon as next quarter, when the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields will be inverted.</p><p>However, it turns out that,<b>Whether it's war, the pandemic, inflation, or even the warning of core recession signals, it seems that it can't stop U.S. stocks from doing what they almost always have done for 13 years: rising.</b>This week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq rose 1.98%, the S&P rose 1.79%, and the Dow rose 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60921f57b5cd1d625f4213360123c7db\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just a few weeks ago, the inversion of part of the U.S. bond curve would have raised fears of a recession and sent stocks down. This week, U.S. stocks hardly felt this fear.</p><p><b>There are many different explanations for the resilient performance of the market.</b>One explanation is that the market's perception of the Fed's hawkish statement has been \"blunted\". Meanwhile, profit estimates have improved this year, with some speculating that stocks may have acted as a hedge against inflation. Others argue that markets are happy to see the Fed take its mandate of fighting inflation seriously, citing the long-term benefits it will bring to the economy.</p><p>Wall Street: Markets Shouldn't Ignore Bond Market Risks</p><p><b>However, U.S. stocks ignored the risks of the bond market, which still alerted Wall Street.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, strategists at Mizuho International Plc have warned that risky assets will ultimately fail to withstand the dramatic impact of higher discount rates and economic growth will not withstand. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p>Janet Mui, head of market analysis at investment firm Brewin Dolphin Ltd., said:</p><p>\"Judging from the performance of risky assets, the market seems to think that such (U.S. bond yields) levels will not trigger a recession and damage risky assets. I think there is some complacency in the market.\"<b>As one of the key drivers of cross-asset valuation, real yields indicate a growing divergence in market sentiment from what is actually happening.</b>Inflation-adjusted real yields are rising, which is theoretically a reason for investors to reduce their holdings of high-growth stocks with higher valuations and earnings potential in the future. However, the opposite is happening.</p><p>Since March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>A basket of software stocks has risen nearly 20%. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. real yields have surged to levels that triggered a sell-off in January.</p><p>Investors may be less sensitive to risks in the U.S. bond market this time around, while healthy earnings growth expectations point to a strong U.S. economy.</p><p>Luke Hickmore, head of investment at investment firm abrdn, said:</p><p>\"Investors are looking more into the future now, when real and nominal yields will indeed be higher, but not high enough to make it worth selling more shares at current levels.\" Technical factors may also play a role.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The strategist said: \"<b>In the past two weeks, the rebalancing of the allocation targets of pensions and sovereign wealth funds from bonds to stocks may have supported the stock market and damaged the bond market.</b>”</p><p>But there aren't many pending rebalancing processes, he said. If bond yields continue to rise, stocks will look more vulnerable.</p><p>According to Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho,<b>It's only a matter of time before the market reprices interest-sensitive investments.</b>He said:</p><p>\"We believe that a 2.75% rate (the Fed's forecast for the benchmark rate at the end of 2023) will be highly restrictive for the U.S. economy and equally so for the global economy, slowly but surely risk premiums will rise and earnings expectations should moderate.\" Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both see terminal rates around 3% and 3.25%-which could impact risk valuations.</p><p>Brooking dolphin Janet Mui believes that,<b>If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 3%, the market will face a painful barrier.</b></p><p>Mui says:</p><p>\"The risk of a recession remains low, but it is increasing as we move towards 2023. A breakout to 3% will allow investors to reconsider and begin to prepare for a'recession or a longer-term slowdown. '\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said:</p><p>\"Now interest rate volatility leads to growth volatility, which actually creates an a vicious circle. This is quite different from the previous cycle, where growth volatility drove interest rate volatility.\" However, according to data compiled by Bank of America,<b>U.S. government bond returns could be set for their worst record since 1949, a year after the Marshall Plan was implemented, and the third bond bear market is underway</b>。 Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that negative yield bonds have quietly disappeared, from about $18 trillion to less than $2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b43f4829253cdab0ba74bb2247c846\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the stampede on risky assets continues. Compiled by Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Fund data shows that,<b>So far this year, eight times more money has flowed into the stock market than into the bond market.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, said:</p><p>\"In the end, it seems that only when economic growth slows and the market is worried about a possible recession will U.S. bond yields stop rising and stocks will face greater pressure. It is difficult to determine when it will happen.\"</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe careful, U.S. debt plummeted! Wall Street warns U.S. stocks not to ignore yield risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-27 17:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. bond yields rose to record levels this week, breaking long bull technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>, the third round of the bond bear market is coming, with the worst return since 1949. However, U.S. stocks continued to rise unaffected. That alarmed Wall Street, with analysts saying it was only a matter of time before interest rate-sensitive investments were repriced. This week, a record sell-off in the U.S. bond market pushed U.S. bond yields above a threshold that could mark the end of a decades-long bull market.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to nearly 2.5% on Friday, its highest level since May 2019 and up a full percentage point since early December, as the Federal Reserve prepares to enter an aggressive rate hike cycle.<b>Compared with previous cycles of monetary policy tightening, this increase is much faster and greater, and it has broken a reliable technical trend line since the late 1980s.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7399224c0beda1efbb3f8f07362334\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may still pull back, as the Federal Reserve faces its largest inflation surge since the 1980s, tight labor markets lead to higher wages, and new commodity price shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war,<b>A growing number of analysts expect U.S. bond yields to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve steadily raises interest rates in the coming months.</b></p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that mainstream Wall Street investment banks are increasingly betting on the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The Federal Reserve's rate hike in May and June are expected to be 50 basis points each.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Bank of America also expect multiple rate hike of 50 basis points this year, and even four consecutive sharp rate hike.</p><p>By Friday, the hawkish outlook became the consensus: Futures pricing reflected that the Fed will rate hike by about two percentage points over the next six meetings.</p><p><b>To make matters worse, short-term bond yields have also surged, and will rise faster than long-term bond yields</b>, the unknown signal that caused the key term yield curve to invert may be about to reappear.</p><p>The 2-year U.S. bond yield was close to 2.33% in early U.S. stock trading on Friday, approaching the top of 2.3736% on May 3, 2019. Goldman Sachs predicts that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will reach 2.60% as soon as next quarter, when the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields will be inverted.</p><p>However, it turns out that,<b>Whether it's war, the pandemic, inflation, or even the warning of core recession signals, it seems that it can't stop U.S. stocks from doing what they almost always have done for 13 years: rising.</b>This week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq rose 1.98%, the S&P rose 1.79%, and the Dow rose 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60921f57b5cd1d625f4213360123c7db\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Just a few weeks ago, the inversion of part of the U.S. bond curve would have raised fears of a recession and sent stocks down. This week, U.S. stocks hardly felt this fear.</p><p><b>There are many different explanations for the resilient performance of the market.</b>One explanation is that the market's perception of the Fed's hawkish statement has been \"blunted\". Meanwhile, profit estimates have improved this year, with some speculating that stocks may have acted as a hedge against inflation. Others argue that markets are happy to see the Fed take its mandate of fighting inflation seriously, citing the long-term benefits it will bring to the economy.</p><p>Wall Street: Markets Shouldn't Ignore Bond Market Risks</p><p><b>However, U.S. stocks ignored the risks of the bond market, which still alerted Wall Street.</b></p><p>According to Bloomberg, strategists at Mizuho International Plc have warned that risky assets will ultimately fail to withstand the dramatic impact of higher discount rates and economic growth will not withstand. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p>Janet Mui, head of market analysis at investment firm Brewin Dolphin Ltd., said:</p><p>\"Judging from the performance of risky assets, the market seems to think that such (U.S. bond yields) levels will not trigger a recession and damage risky assets. I think there is some complacency in the market.\"<b>As one of the key drivers of cross-asset valuation, real yields indicate a growing divergence in market sentiment from what is actually happening.</b>Inflation-adjusted real yields are rising, which is theoretically a reason for investors to reduce their holdings of high-growth stocks with higher valuations and earnings potential in the future. However, the opposite is happening.</p><p>Since March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>A basket of software stocks has risen nearly 20%. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. real yields have surged to levels that triggered a sell-off in January.</p><p>Investors may be less sensitive to risks in the U.S. bond market this time around, while healthy earnings growth expectations point to a strong U.S. economy.</p><p>Luke Hickmore, head of investment at investment firm abrdn, said:</p><p>\"Investors are looking more into the future now, when real and nominal yields will indeed be higher, but not high enough to make it worth selling more shares at current levels.\" Technical factors may also play a role.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The strategist said: \"<b>In the past two weeks, the rebalancing of the allocation targets of pensions and sovereign wealth funds from bonds to stocks may have supported the stock market and damaged the bond market.</b>”</p><p>But there aren't many pending rebalancing processes, he said. If bond yields continue to rise, stocks will look more vulnerable.</p><p>According to Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho,<b>It's only a matter of time before the market reprices interest-sensitive investments.</b>He said:</p><p>\"We believe that a 2.75% rate (the Fed's forecast for the benchmark rate at the end of 2023) will be highly restrictive for the U.S. economy and equally so for the global economy, slowly but surely risk premiums will rise and earnings expectations should moderate.\" Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both see terminal rates around 3% and 3.25%-which could impact risk valuations.</p><p>Brooking dolphin Janet Mui believes that,<b>If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 3%, the market will face a painful barrier.</b></p><p>Mui says:</p><p>\"The risk of a recession remains low, but it is increasing as we move towards 2023. A breakout to 3% will allow investors to reconsider and begin to prepare for a'recession or a longer-term slowdown. '\" Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said:</p><p>\"Now interest rate volatility leads to growth volatility, which actually creates an a vicious circle. This is quite different from the previous cycle, where growth volatility drove interest rate volatility.\" However, according to data compiled by Bank of America,<b>U.S. government bond returns could be set for their worst record since 1949, a year after the Marshall Plan was implemented, and the third bond bear market is underway</b>。 Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that negative yield bonds have quietly disappeared, from about $18 trillion to less than $2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b43f4829253cdab0ba74bb2247c846\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the stampede on risky assets continues. Compiled by Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Fund data shows that,<b>So far this year, eight times more money has flowed into the stock market than into the bond market.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, said:</p><p>\"In the end, it seems that only when economic growth slows and the market is worried about a possible recession will U.S. bond yields stop rising and stocks will face greater pressure. It is difficult to determine when it will happen.\"</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158389713","content_text":"本周美债收益率上涨至创纪录水平，击破长牛技术趋势线，第三轮债券大熊市来临，创1949年以来最差回报。然而美股不受影响继续走高。这引起了华尔街的警觉，分析师表示，对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。本周，美债市场创纪录的抛售，推动美债收益率突破了一个可能标志着数十年牛市结束的关口。随着美联储准备进入激进的加息周期，周五10年期美债收益率飙升至近2.5%，为2019年5月以来的最高水平，并且自12月初以来上涨了整整一个百分点。与前几轮货币政策紧缩周期相比，这一升幅要快得多，幅度也大得多，并且已经击破了自1980年代末以来的一条可靠的技术趋势线。虽然10年期美债收益率可能还会回调，但随着美联储正面临自1980年代以来最大的通胀飙升，劳动力市场紧张导致工资上涨，以及俄乌战事带来新的商品价格冲击，越来越多的分析师预计，随着美联储未来几个月稳步提高利率，美债收益率将继续上升。华尔街见闻此前提及，主流华尔街投行越来越多地押注今年美联储激进加息，高盛预计美联储5、6月各加息50基点，花旗和美银也预计今年将多次加息50个基点，甚至连续四次大幅加息。到周五，鹰派前景成为共识：期货定价反映出，未来六次会议美联储将加息约两个百分点。更糟糕的是，短债收益率也大幅飙升，并且上升幅度将快于长债收益率，导致关键期限收益率曲线倒挂这一不详的信号可能即将再次出现。周五2年期美债收益率在美股早盘一度接近2.33%，逼近2019年5月3日顶部2.3736%。高盛预计，2年期美债收益率最快在下个季度达到2.60%，届时2年期和10年期美债收益率就会出现倒挂。然而，事实证明，无论是战争、疫情还是通胀，乃至核心衰退信号拉响警告，似乎都无法阻止美股做它们13年来几乎总是做的事情：上涨。本周美股三大指数均连续第二周累计上涨，纳指涨1.98%，标普涨1.79%，道指涨0.31%。就在几周前，部分美债曲线倒挂还会引发对经济衰退的担忧，并导致股市下跌。而本周美股几乎感受不到这种恐惧。对于市场的弹性表现，有很多不同的解释。一种解释是，市场对于美联储的鹰派表述的感知已经“钝化”。与此同时，今年以来的利润预期有所提高，一些人猜测股票可能起到了对冲通胀的作用。也有人认为，市场很高兴看到美联储认真对待其抗击通胀的任务，理由是这将为经济带来长期利益。华尔街：市场不应无视债券市场的风险然而，美股无视债券市场的风险，还是让华尔街有所警觉。据彭博，瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)的策略师警告称，风险资产最终将无法抵御贴现率上升的巨大影响，经济增长也将无法抵御。即随着美联储开始大步收紧政策，股市似乎不得不做出一些让步。投资公司布鲁金海豚（Brewin Dolphin Ltd.）的市场分析主管Janet Mui表示：“从风险资产的表现来看，市场似乎认为这样的（美债收益率）水平不会引发经济衰退并损害风险资产。我认为市场存在一定的自满。”作为跨资产估值的关键驱动因素之一，实际收益率表明了市场情绪与实际情况日益严重的背离。经通胀调整后的实际收益率正在上升，从理论上讲，这是投资者减持估值较高、盈利潜力在于未来的高成长股票的一个理由。然而，相反的情况正在发生。自3月16日以来，富国银行一篮子软件类股票已上涨近20%。与此同时，基准美国实际收益率已飙升至曾在1月引发抛售的水平。投资者这一次可能对美债市场的风险不那么敏感了，而健康的收益增长预期表明美国经济强劲。投资公司abrdn的投资主管Luke Hickmore表示：“投资者现在更多将目光投向未来，那时实际收益率和名义收益率确实将更高，但还没有高到值得在当前水平卖出更多股票的程度。”技术因素也可能起到了作用。摩根大通策略师表示：“过去两周，（养老金和主权财富基金配置目标的）再平衡从债券流向股票可能支撑了股市并损害了债市。”但他表示，现在已经没有太多待定的再平衡流程。如果债券收益率继续上升，股市看起来将会更加脆弱。瑞穗多元资产策略主管Peter Chatwell认为，市场对利率敏感的投资重新定价只是时间问题。他说：“我们认为，2.75%的利率（美联储对2023年底基准利率的预测）将对美国经济具有高度限制性，对全球经济同样如此，缓慢但肯定的是，风险溢价将上升，收益预期应会放缓。”高盛和美银的策略师都认为最终利率在3%和3.25%左右——这可能会影响风险估值。布鲁金海豚Janet Mui认为，如果10年期美债收益率达到3%，市场将面临一个痛苦的关口。Mui说：“经济衰退的风险仍然很低，但随着我们迈向2023年，这种风险正在增加。突破至3%将使投资者重新考虑，并开始为‘经济衰退或更长期的放缓’做准备。”高盛集团投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理Christian Mueller-Glissmann说：“现在利率波动会导致增长波动，这实际上会形成恶性循环。这与上一个周期有很大的不同，上一个周期是增长波动驱动利率波动。”不过，根据美银汇编的数据，美国政府债券的回报率可能将创下自1949年马歇尔计划实施一年后以来的最差纪录，第三次债券大熊市正在进行。美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett指出，负收益率债券已悄然消失，从约18万亿美元降至不到2万亿美元。目前，对风险资产的踩踏仍在继续。彭博汇编的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF基金数据显示，今年迄今，流入股市的资金比流入债市的资金多8倍。BlueBay资产管理公司首席投资官Mark Dowding表示：“最终看来，只有经济增长放缓，且市场担心可能出现衰退，美债收益率才会停止上升，股市才会面临更大压力。很难确定何时会发生。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLT":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096109078,"gmtCreate":1644321056953,"gmtModify":1676533912075,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😶","listText":"😶","text":"😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096109078","repostId":"2209451307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209451307","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644311979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209451307?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-08 17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209451307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Rising wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Federal Reserve. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the average hourly wage in January increased by 0.7% month-on-month.<b>The increase in the past 12 months was 5.7%, the fastest pace since March 2007</b>(except for the early two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind inflation in terms of policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were the Fed chairman, I would be even more concerned that the factors driving wages higher are more than just exceptions and raise interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there are widespread price increases that begin to affect wages, the risk of an inflation spiral increases, and policy measures lag behind the inflation curve, the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made the most aggressive call to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest Bank of America report pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, each with a rate hike of 25 basis points, and four rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view believes that the possibility of this situation is only 18%, he still supports this view.<b>The main reasons are:</b>The U.S. economic recovery has not only reached the Fed's goal, but even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring across almost all income brackets</p><p>During the conference call, Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020. The Fed said that under its flexible average inflation target, in order to achieve full employment, it allows inflation to be higher than its 2% target.</p><p>But as the inflation rate grows to around 7% and the labor market becomes increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve is now accelerating its \"catch-up\" and changing monetary policy to cope with the severe inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across almost every income bracket.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, saw the largest wage increases,</b>It has risen by 13% in the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose by 4.8%, while wages in the retail sector rose by 7.1%.</p><p>Previous news articles mentioned that salary increases are \"blossoming in an all-round way.\" In addition to raising wages for middle and low-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions are also \"chasing after each other\" to increase employee salaries. Biden also issued an executive order to increase the minimum wage for federal employees last month. to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the'great resignation wave '</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave\", which refers to the sharp increase in the number of resignations in the United States since 2021, and the turnover rate is at the highest level in nearly 20 years. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of U.S. labor changes or departures in 2021 was 47.4 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle point out in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interrelated trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying employment opportunities. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of a spiraling wage inflation.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs data shows that wage growth in the United States will slow down this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach about 5% this year.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that labor costs are growing faster than the 2% inflation target, which may keep inflation higher and the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive response.</p><p>Rate hike 50 basis points'reasonable 'but inconsistent with Powell's'humble' attitude</p><p>The market has been slowly overweighting the Fed's rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but more rate hike is still possible, and at a faster pace. Although traders generally expect the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike in March, it does not rule out the Fed choosing a one-time sharp 50 basis point rate hike in March<b>, the likelihood of a rate hike of 50 basis points has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>Rate hike of 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing\", but it is inconsistent with the \"humble\" attitude supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Federal Reserve policy has lagged behind and hopes they can regain their inflation rhetoric and control wage growth. Earlier, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delay, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening policies.</p><p>In addition, Harris pointed out,<b>Actually, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends accurate messages that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that this rate hike cycle may be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed conducted 17 consecutive rate hike in order to cool the runaway housing market. Referring to the expected 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This isn't an aggressive forecast, it's just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America's \"amazing\" forecast: Fed rate hike seven times this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-08 17:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Rising wages are good news for workers, but bad news for the Federal Reserve. If wages grow too fast, it is expected to push the Fed to rate hike at a faster pace.</p><p>Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the average hourly wage in January increased by 0.7% month-on-month.<b>The increase in the past 12 months was 5.7%, the fastest pace since March 2007</b>(except for the early two months of the pandemic).</p><p>There is a growing perception that the Federal Reserve is lagging behind inflation in terms of policy, which is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>On Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Ethan Harris, head of global economic research, said in a conference call with CNBC:</p><p>If I were the Fed chairman, I would be even more concerned that the factors driving wages higher are more than just exceptions and raise interest rates earlier in the fall.<b>When there are widespread price increases that begin to affect wages, the risk of an inflation spiral increases, and policy measures lag behind the inflation curve, the Fed needs to start acting.</b>Harris made the most aggressive call to the Federal Reserve this year. The latest Bank of America report pointed out that,<b>There will be seven rate hike in 2022, each with a rate hike of 25 basis points, and four rate hike next year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d71f78fb385b6a8eb76748da269eed9\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this regard, Harris pointed out that although the current market view believes that the possibility of this situation is only 18%, he still supports this view.<b>The main reasons are:</b>The U.S. economic recovery has not only reached the Fed's goal, but even exceeded the stop signs.</p><p>Wages are soaring across almost all income brackets</p><p>During the conference call, Harris mentioned the new approach to monetary policy approved by the Federal Reserve in September 2020. The Fed said that under its flexible average inflation target, in order to achieve full employment, it allows inflation to be higher than its 2% target.</p><p>But as the inflation rate grows to around 7% and the labor market becomes increasingly tight, the Federal Reserve is now accelerating its \"catch-up\" and changing monetary policy to cope with the severe inflation situation.</p><p><b>Harris noted that wages are skyrocketing across almost every income bracket.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b81b83224ba1b963bcd13331680628\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The leisure and hospitality industries, which were most affected by the epidemic, saw the largest wage increases,</b>It has risen by 13% in the past year. Wages in the financial sector rose by 4.8%, while wages in the retail sector rose by 7.1%.</p><p>Previous news articles mentioned that salary increases are \"blossoming in an all-round way.\" In addition to raising wages for middle and low-class workers, Wall Street financial institutions are also \"chasing after each other\" to increase employee salaries. Biden also issued an executive order to increase the minimum wage for federal employees last month. to $15.</p><p>Soaring wages are part of the'great resignation wave '</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Consider the trend of soaring wages as part of the \"Great Resignation Wave\", which refers to the sharp increase in the number of resignations in the United States since 2021, and the turnover rate is at the highest level in nearly 20 years. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of U.S. labor changes or departures in 2021 was 47.4 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2ef87143df605f0b95c38ef19600a0\" tg-width=\"387\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and David Mericle point out in a note that the \"Great Resignation Wave\" includes two distinct but interrelated trends:<b>Millions of workers have left the workforce, and millions more have quit for better, higher-paying employment opportunities. These trends have pushed wage increases to an increasingly worrying level of a spiraling wage inflation.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs data shows that wage growth in the United States will slow down this year, but only slightly, and is expected to reach about 5% this year.<b>It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be four rate hike in 2022.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that labor costs are growing faster than the 2% inflation target, which may keep inflation higher and the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive response.</p><p>Rate hike 50 basis points'reasonable 'but inconsistent with Powell's'humble' attitude</p><p>The market has been slowly overweighting the Fed's rate hike, with five rate hike expected this year, but more rate hike is still possible, and at a faster pace. Although traders generally expect the Fed to issue a 25 basis point rate hike in March, it does not rule out the Fed choosing a one-time sharp 50 basis point rate hike in March<b>, the likelihood of a rate hike of 50 basis points has risen to nearly 30%.</b></p><p><b>Harris said:</b></p><p>Rate hike of 50 basis points would be \"a reasonable thing\", but it is inconsistent with the \"humble\" attitude supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the January FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday that the Federal Reserve policy has lagged behind and hopes they can regain their inflation rhetoric and control wage growth. Earlier, El-Erian warned in an op-ed that the more delay, the greater the risk of policy tightening. Instead of ensuring a soft landing, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be forced to adopt excessive \"catch-up\" tightening policies.</p><p>In addition, Harris pointed out,<b>Actually, he doesn't think rate hike will destroy the economy, as long as the Fed sends accurate messages that rate hike aims to control inflation, not curb economic growth.</b></p><p>Harris added that this rate hike cycle may be similar to the Fed's move in mid-2005, when the Fed conducted 17 consecutive rate hike in order to cool the runaway housing market. Referring to the expected 11 rate hike by 2023, Harris said:</p><p>This isn't an aggressive forecast, it's just a path of less resistance for a central bank starting from scratch.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209451307","content_text":"薪资上涨对工人来说是个好消息，但于美联储而言却是坏消息。如果工资增长过快，预计将推动美联储以更快的速度加息。上周五，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，1月份平均时薪环比增长0.7%，过去12个月的增幅为5.7%，这是自2007年3月以来增速最快的一次（疫情初期的两个月除外）。人们越来越多地认为，美联储在政策方面落后于通胀增速，目前美国通胀率正以近40年来最快的速度增长。周一，美国银行全球经济研究部主管Ethan Harris在与CNBC的电话会议中表示：如果我是美联储主席，我会更加担心推动工资上涨的因素不仅仅是例外情况，并在秋天早些时候提高利率。当存在广泛的物价上涨，并开始影响到工资，通胀螺旋风险加大，政策措施就落后于通胀曲线，美联储需要开始行动。Harris对美联储发出了今年以来最激进的呼吁，美银最新报告指出，2022年将有七次加息，每次加息25个基点，明年还会有四次加息。对此，Harris指出，尽管目前市场观点认为这种情况的可能性只有18%，但他依然支持这个观点，主要原因在于：美国经济复苏不仅达到了美联储的目标，甚至还超过了停止线(the stop signs)。几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升Harris在电话会议中提及美联储2020年9月批准的货币政策新方法。美联储表示，在灵活的平均通胀目标下，为了实现充分就业，允许通胀率高于2%的目标。但随着通胀率增长到7%左右，劳动力市场越来越紧张，美联储现在加速“追赶”，改变货币政策进而应对严峻的通胀形势。Harris指出，几乎所有收入阶层的工资都在飙升。受疫情影响最严重的休闲和酒店行业工资增幅最大，在过去一年的上涨了13%。金融行业的工资上涨了4.8%，而零售行业的工资更是上涨了7.1%。此前见闻文章提及，加薪“全面开花”，除了中低阶层工人提高了工资，华尔街金融机构也“你追我赶”地增加员工薪资，拜登上个月还发布了上调联邦雇员的最低工资至15美元的行政命令。工资飙升是“大辞职潮”的一部分高盛将工资飙升这一趋势视为“大辞职潮”的一部分，“大辞职潮”是指2021年以来，美国离职人数陡增，离职率处于近20年来最高水平。根据美国劳工部数据，2021年全年美国劳动力更换或离职次数为4740万人次。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs和David Mericle在一份报告中指出，“大辞职潮”包括两个截然不同但相互关联的趋势：数百万工人离开了劳动力大军，还有数百万人为了更好、更高收入的就业机会而辞职。这些趋势已将工资涨幅推至一个越来越令人担忧的水平，即工资通胀螺旋上升。高盛数据显示，今年美国工资增长将会放缓，但只是小幅放缓，到今年预计会达到5%左右。值得一提的是，高盛预计，2022年将有四次加息。高盛经济学家指出，劳动力成本的增长速度快于2%的通胀目标，这可能会使通胀继续走高，美联储将采取更激进的应对措施。加息50个基点“合理”，但与鲍威尔“谦逊”态度不一致市场一直在缓慢地加码美联储加息，预计今年将有五次加息，但仍有可能加息更多次，而且速度更快。尽管交易员普遍预计美联储将在3月份加息25个基点，但也不排除美联储3月选择一次性大幅加息50个基点，目前加息50个基点的可能性已升至近30%。Harris表示：加息50个基点将是\"一件合理的事情\"，但这与美联储主席鲍威尔在1月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上所支持的\"谦逊\"（humble）态度不一致。安联集团首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一在CNBC的Squawk Box节目中表示，美联储政策已经落后，希望他们能重拾通胀论调，控制工资增长。此前，El-Erian在专栏文章中发出警告，越拖延，政策收紧的风险就越大。美联储和欧央行非但不能确保经济软着陆，反而可能被迫采取过度的“追赶性”紧缩政策。此外，Harris指出，实际上，他不认为加息会破坏经济，只要美联储传达出准确的信息，即加息旨在控制通胀，而不是遏制经济增长。Harris补充称，本轮加息周期可能类似于美联储在2005年中期的举措，当时美联储连续17次加息，目的是为失控的房地产市场降温。谈到预计到2023年将加息11次时，Harris表示：这并不是一个激进的预测，对于一个从零开始的央行来说，这只是一条阻力较小的道路。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928243193,"gmtCreate":1671300548312,"gmtModify":1676538521853,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928243193","repostId":"1101853372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101853372","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671202578,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101853372?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-16 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. December PMI misses expectations, business activity shrinks further","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101853372","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"加息对通胀产生了预期效果，但经济成本正在增加，经济衰退的风险也随之增加。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 46.2, expected to be 47.7, and the previous value was 47.7.</b></p><p>The preliminary Markit services PMI value fell to 44.4 in December, the lowest since August, and shrank for six consecutive months. Expected 46.8, previous value 46.2.</p><p>The preliminary Markit Composite PMI fell to 44.6 in December, one of the worst performances since data records began in 2009.</p><p>The U.S. PMI for December showed business activity shrank further, with new orders falling to their lowest level in more than two and a half years, but weaker demand helped sharply cool inflation. Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that as 2022 draws to a close, U.S. business conditions are deteriorating, with GDP expected to grow at an annualized rate of about 1.5% in the fourth quarter.</p><p>At the same time, job growth has slowed to the extreme as companies in the manufacturing and service sectors have taken a more cautious approach to hiring amid sluggish customer demand. The upside is that weakening demand reduces the pressure on supply chains. In December, supplier delivery times accelerated for the second consecutive month, heralding improved supply conditions and a shift in pricing power from sellers to buyers. As a result, price pressures continue to ease sharply.</p><p>In conclusion, the survey data suggests that the Fed's rate hike has had the desired effect on inflation, but the cost to the economy is increasing, and with it, the risk of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. December PMI misses expectations, business activity shrinks further</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. December PMI misses expectations, business activity shrinks further\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-16 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 46.2, expected to be 47.7, and the previous value was 47.7.</b></p><p>The preliminary Markit services PMI value fell to 44.4 in December, the lowest since August, and shrank for six consecutive months. Expected 46.8, previous value 46.2.</p><p>The preliminary Markit Composite PMI fell to 44.6 in December, one of the worst performances since data records began in 2009.</p><p>The U.S. PMI for December showed business activity shrank further, with new orders falling to their lowest level in more than two and a half years, but weaker demand helped sharply cool inflation. Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that as 2022 draws to a close, U.S. business conditions are deteriorating, with GDP expected to grow at an annualized rate of about 1.5% in the fourth quarter.</p><p>At the same time, job growth has slowed to the extreme as companies in the manufacturing and service sectors have taken a more cautious approach to hiring amid sluggish customer demand. The upside is that weakening demand reduces the pressure on supply chains. In December, supplier delivery times accelerated for the second consecutive month, heralding improved supply conditions and a shift in pricing power from sellers to buyers. As a result, price pressures continue to ease sharply.</p><p>In conclusion, the survey data suggests that the Fed's rate hike has had the desired effect on inflation, but the cost to the economy is increasing, and with it, the risk of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c95bdb75bbd57d223ce4095a2f438cc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101853372","content_text":"美国12月Markit制造业PMI初值 46.2，预期47.7，前值47.7。12月Markit服务业PMI初值降至44.4，创8月份以来新低，且连续六个月萎缩。预期46.8，前值46.2。12月Markit综合PMI初值降至44.6，为2009年有数据记录以来最糟糕的表现之一。美国12月PMI显示，商业活动进一步萎缩，新订单降至逾两年半以来最低，但需求走软帮助大幅冷却通胀。标普全球市场情报首席经济学家Chris Williamson表示，随着2022年即将结束，美国的商业状况正在恶化，料第四季度GDP的年化增长率约为1.5%。同时，由于制造业和服务业的企业在客户需求低迷的情况下对招聘采取了更加谨慎的态度，就业增长已经放缓到了极点。好处是，需求的减弱减轻了供应链的压力。12月，供应商交货时间连续第二个月加快，预示着供应条件的改善，且定价权从卖方转移到买方。因此，价格压力继续急剧缓和。总之，调查数据表明，美联储加息对通胀产生了预期效果，但经济成本正在增加，经济衰退的风险也随之增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331270584680544,"gmtCreate":1721884554389,"gmtModify":1721884559285,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9da5218bb874df16c90bd9a3bdd828e3","width":"878","height":"1703"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331270584680544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925926957,"gmtCreate":1671908850179,"gmtModify":1676538609570,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925926957","repostId":"1160777906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160777906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供即時金融資訊、行情、數據，旨在幫助投資者理解世界，做投資決策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎資訊","id":"1059071526","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672011755,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160777906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160777906","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"尊敬的投資者：聖誕節長假期已經來到，美股、港股等市場的交易活動會受到影響。請留意股市休市時間，並提前安排好您的投資計劃。聖誕節期間股市交易安排美股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。港股：2022年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Dear Investors:</b></p><p>The long Christmas holiday has arrived, and trading activities in U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks and other markets will be affected. Please pay attention to when the stock market is closed and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p>Stock Market Trading Arrangements During Christmas</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p>The market will be closed on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Singapore Stock Market:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the Australian market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>New Zealand Market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the New Zealand market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets:</b></p><p>The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTip: The Christmas holiday has arrived, a look at the closing times of the trading markets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Dear Investors:</b></p><p>The long Christmas holiday has arrived, and trading activities in U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks and other markets will be affected. Please pay attention to when the stock market is closed and arrange your investment plan in advance.</p><p>Stock Market Trading Arrangements During Christmas</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p>The market will be closed on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Singapore Stock Market:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on December 26, 2022 (Monday).</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the Australian market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>New Zealand Market:</b></p><p>Except for holiday days, the New Zealand market will be closed on Monday, December 26, 2022 and Tuesday, December 27, 2022 local time.</p><p><b>Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets:</b></p><p>The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No services will be available on Monday, December 26, 2022.</p><p>No services will be available on December 27, 2022 (Tuesday).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e029cf8d7c318d1de45f38c9aaf8eeb7","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160777906","content_text":"尊敬的投資者：聖誕節長假期已經來到，美股、港股等市場的交易活動會受到影響。請留意股市休市時間，並提前安排好您的投資計劃。聖誕節期間股市交易安排美股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。港股：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。2022年12月27日（週二）休市。新加坡股市：2022年12月26日（週一）休市。澳洲市場：除節禮日之外，澳洲市場將於當地時間2022年12月26日（週一）和 2022年12月27日（週二）休市。新西蘭市場：除節禮日之外，新西蘭市場將於當地時間2022年12月26日（週一）和2022年12月27日（週二）休市。滬深兩市：滬深兩市照常交易。滬股通、深股通：2022年12月26日（週一）不提供服務。2022年12月27日（週二）不提供服務。港股通：2022年12月26日（週一）不提供服務。2022年12月27日（週二）不提供服務。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968620901,"gmtCreate":1669214445203,"gmtModify":1676538168248,"author":{"id":"3580895723427956","authorId":"3580895723427956","name":"长不高的韭菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a147405f6f82fe15ad671225fddd8088","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580895723427956","idStr":"3580895723427956"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"8","listText":"8","text":"8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968620901","repostId":"2285439848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285439848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669211400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285439848?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 21:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse shareholders approve issuance of 2.23 billion new shares to raise $4.2 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285439848","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞信股东批准发行超过22.3亿股新股，以筹集40亿瑞士法郎，用于公司重组为一家更精简的银行的计划。去年10月底，瑞信表示，已收到合格投资者的承诺，将在此次私募中购买4.62亿股新股。11月23日，瑞信公布了2022年第三季度业绩。瑞信Q3营收为38亿瑞士法郎，同比降低30%；归属于股东的净亏损为40.34亿瑞士法郎，上年同期净利润为4.34亿瑞士法郎。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Credit Suisse (CS.US) shareholders approved the issuance of more than 2.23 billion new shares to raise 4 billion Swiss francs ($4.2 billion) for the company's plan to restructure into a leaner bank.</p><p>The plan for private placement of up to 462,041,884 new shares to certain qualified investors was approved by the shareholders by a majority of 91.97%. In the second proposal, approved by a majority of 98.31%, shareholders increased their capital by issuing up to 1.767 billion newly issued shares to existing shareholders.</p><p>The final terms of the rights issue are expected to be announced on Thursday, November 24.</p><p>At the end of October last year, Credit Suisse said it had received commitments from accredited investors to buy 462 million new shares in this private placement. The rights issue is more than the 889 million new shares originally expected to be issued.</p><p>On November 23, Credit Suisse announced its third quarter 2022 results. Credit Suisse's Q3 revenue was 3.8 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; Net loss attributable to shareholders was Swiss francs 4.034 billion, compared with net profit of Swiss francs 434 million in the same period last year.</p><p>Credit Suisse warned of a fourth-quarter loss of as much as 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion), and said there would be further outflows of wealth management funds amid slumping client confidence.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse shareholders approve issuance of 2.23 billion new shares to raise $4.2 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse shareholders approve issuance of 2.23 billion new shares to raise $4.2 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-23 21:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Credit Suisse (CS.US) shareholders approved the issuance of more than 2.23 billion new shares to raise 4 billion Swiss francs ($4.2 billion) for the company's plan to restructure into a leaner bank.</p><p>The plan for private placement of up to 462,041,884 new shares to certain qualified investors was approved by the shareholders by a majority of 91.97%. In the second proposal, approved by a majority of 98.31%, shareholders increased their capital by issuing up to 1.767 billion newly issued shares to existing shareholders.</p><p>The final terms of the rights issue are expected to be announced on Thursday, November 24.</p><p>At the end of October last year, Credit Suisse said it had received commitments from accredited investors to buy 462 million new shares in this private placement. The rights issue is more than the 889 million new shares originally expected to be issued.</p><p>On November 23, Credit Suisse announced its third quarter 2022 results. Credit Suisse's Q3 revenue was 3.8 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; Net loss attributable to shareholders was Swiss francs 4.034 billion, compared with net profit of Swiss francs 434 million in the same period last year.</p><p>Credit Suisse warned of a fourth-quarter loss of as much as 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion), and said there would be further outflows of wealth management funds amid slumping client confidence.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/836322.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9880d7eec8b534b02eee516222413c4e","relate_stocks":{"BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/836322.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285439848","content_text":"瑞信(CS.US)股东批准发行超过22.3亿股新股，以筹集40亿瑞士法郎(42亿美元)，用于公司重组为一家更精简的银行的计划。股东以91.97%的多数票通过了向若干合格投资者定向增发最多462,041,884股新股的计划。在第二份提案中，以98.31%的多数票通过，股东通过向现有股东增发最多17.67亿股新发行股票的方式增资。配股的最终条款预计将于11月24日周四公布。去年10月底，瑞信表示，已收到合格投资者的承诺，将在此次私募中购买4.62亿股新股。此次配股比原先预计发行的8.89亿股新股要多。11月23日，瑞信公布了2022年第三季度业绩。瑞信Q3营收为38亿瑞士法郎，同比降低30%；归属于股东的净亏损为40.34亿瑞士法郎，上年同期净利润为4.34亿瑞士法郎。瑞信警告称，第四季度亏损将高达 15 亿瑞士法郎（16 亿美元），并称在客户信心下滑的情况下，财富管理资金将进一步外流。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}