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54oo_

54oo_

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2024-02-05

$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$

2023-10-27

$皇冠(5HT.SI)$

2023-03-06

[害羞]

This week's preview | The market focuses on the interest rate orientation conveyed by Powell's speech! The three central banks discussed interest rates in unison, and JD Unicom and other results were coming! Two new stocks listed

2023-02-02

[流泪]

Powell: Consider pausing after about two more rate hike, it is not appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and it will take time for financial conditions to tighten

2023-02-02

[流泪]

"Sister Wood" has a big recovery: ARKK soared 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance in history

2023-01-27

[鬼脸]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-01-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [得意]

2023-01-16

yes lor

2023-01-15

funny[得意]

2023-01-15

ney

2023-01-15

neat

2023-01-14

[龇牙]

2023-01-13

Nice

2023-01-12

[得意]

2023-01-11

[惊讶]

2023-01-10

[得意]

2023-01-10

sigh[流泪]

2023-01-09

nice

2023-01-08

nice

2023-01-07

Yeah

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08:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | The market focuses on the interest rate orientation conveyed by Powell's speech! The three central banks discussed interest rates in unison, and JD Unicom and other results were coming! Two new stocks listed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117804954","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"本週（3.6-3.10）重要財經事件：經濟數據：市場本周將會聚焦多項就業數據，包括周三公布的「小非農」ADP就業人數變動，到周五更有2月非農新增職位及2月份失業率，1月非農數據遠超預期震驚市場，若再出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Important financial events this week (3.6-3.10):</b></p><p>Economic data: The market will focus on a number of employment data this week, including the changes in the number of small non-agricultural ADP jobs announced on Wednesday. By Friday, there will be new non-agricultural jobs in February and the unemployment rate in February. The non-agricultural data in January far exceeded Expected to shock the market, if there is another alarm, it may cause fluctuations in U.S. stocks. Financial events: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend two Congress hearings on Tuesday (7th) and Wednesday (8th). His speeches will help the market better understand the latest interest rate orientation of the authorities. In addition, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on Thursday, and the banks of Australia, Canada and Japan held interest rates this week. Performance announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>U.S. stocks announced results after hours on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Ltd</a>U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened on Thursday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">ZTE Corporation</a>, AIA and others also announced results this week. IPO of new shares:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02482\">Weitian Express</a>(02482)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09636\">Jiufang Wealth</a>(09636) launched on March 9 and 10, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17207495ed040e73fd53b880ed7e9ae7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fdedc78051dccabf7bf1ef8d1b144f3\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"2000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday, March 6</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. January factory order monthly rate, Ctrip performance</b></p><p>Economic data: The market is focused on the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in January, which was 1.8% previously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2eb83f7764708459669205cdfc14519\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>U.S. stocks released performance reports after hours.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 7</b></p><p><b>Keywords: Powell Congress hearings</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend two Congress hearings on Tuesday (7th) and Wednesday (8th). His speeches will help the market better understand the latest interest rate orientation of the authorities. The Reserve Bank of Australia also announced the results of its interest rate meeting on the same day.</p><p>Economic data: China's trade account, and U.S. wholesale sales monthly rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7245a1439c076fee4d317ea668db5f0\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69373324a59a1f848ceff22b065ef47b\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Ltd</a>(SE) U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened. Wharf Real Estate (01997), Haifeng International (01308), Chinalco International (02068), and Minmetals Resources (01208) announced their results on the same day.</p><p><b>Wednesday, March 8</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. ADP employment, Powell's monetary policy testimony, China Unicom's performance</b></p><p>The market is paying attention to the change in the number of small non-agricultural ADP employment announced on Wednesday. The data predicted 168,000, compared with the previous value of 106,000.</p><p>The number of new jobs in ADP private companies announced on Wednesday is expected to increase to 195,000 in February, and the number of JOLTS job vacancies in January dropped to 10.6 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b80c91e1725cf662b96020e43c110cc\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Bank of Canada announced the results of its interest rate meeting.</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00293\">Cathay Pacific Airways</a>(00293) 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>(00762), SJM Holdings (00880), Uni-President China (00220), Yuexiu Services (06626)</p><p><b>Thursday, March 9</b></p><p><b>Keywords: China CPI, U.S. initial unemployment benefits for the week, Fed Beige Book, JD.com results</b></p><p>China announced the annual CPI rate for February, which rose 2.1% before the data. The United States announced the number of new applications for unemployment benefits last week, which was previously 190,000.</p><p>The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on the economic situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06b406edcfed6336fced077c62c184\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>IPO:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02482\">Weitian Express</a>(02482)</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>(09618), MTR (00066), Swire (00019), Swire Real Estate (01972), Kowloon Cang Holdings (00004), etc.</p><p><b>Friday, March 10</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. non-agricultural employment population, U.S. unemployment rate, ZTE/Wuxin Technology financial report</b></p><p>On Friday, there were new non-agricultural jobs in February and the unemployment rate in February. The non-agricultural data in January far exceeded expectations and shocked the market. If there is another shock, it may cause fluctuations in U.S. stocks.</p><p>Current market forecasts that new jobs will drop significantly to 215,000 in February. The unemployment rate in February is expected to remain at 3.4%. Another point of concern will be the increase in average hourly wages. The market now expects average hourly wages to rise by 4.7% year-on-year in February, higher than 4.4% in January. If the growth exceeds expectations, it may cause market concerns about inflation and wage spirals.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8003aa2968dc3f8f5a577214d99ebb1b\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Bank of Japan announced the results of its interest rate meeting.</p><p>IPO:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09636\">Jiufang Wealth</a>(09636)</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>(01299), Huaren Property (00127),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">ZTE Corporation</a>(00763), RLX, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | The market focuses on the interest rate orientation conveyed by Powell's speech! The three central banks discussed interest rates in unison, and JD Unicom and other results were coming! Two new stocks listed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | The market focuses on the interest rate orientation conveyed by Powell's speech! The three central banks discussed interest rates in unison, and JD Unicom and other results were coming! Two new stocks listed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-06 08:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Important financial events this week (3.6-3.10):</b></p><p>Economic data: The market will focus on a number of employment data this week, including the changes in the number of small non-agricultural ADP jobs announced on Wednesday. By Friday, there will be new non-agricultural jobs in February and the unemployment rate in February. The non-agricultural data in January far exceeded Expected to shock the market, if there is another alarm, it may cause fluctuations in U.S. stocks. Financial events: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend two Congress hearings on Tuesday (7th) and Wednesday (8th). His speeches will help the market better understand the latest interest rate orientation of the authorities. In addition, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on Thursday, and the banks of Australia, Canada and Japan held interest rates this week. Performance announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>U.S. stocks announced results after hours on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Ltd</a>U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened on Thursday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">ZTE Corporation</a>, AIA and others also announced results this week. IPO of new shares:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02482\">Weitian Express</a>(02482)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09636\">Jiufang Wealth</a>(09636) launched on March 9 and 10, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17207495ed040e73fd53b880ed7e9ae7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fdedc78051dccabf7bf1ef8d1b144f3\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"2000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday, March 6</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. January factory order monthly rate, Ctrip performance</b></p><p>Economic data: The market is focused on the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in January, which was 1.8% previously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2eb83f7764708459669205cdfc14519\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>U.S. stocks released performance reports after hours.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 7</b></p><p><b>Keywords: Powell Congress hearings</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend two Congress hearings on Tuesday (7th) and Wednesday (8th). His speeches will help the market better understand the latest interest rate orientation of the authorities. The Reserve Bank of Australia also announced the results of its interest rate meeting on the same day.</p><p>Economic data: China's trade account, and U.S. wholesale sales monthly rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7245a1439c076fee4d317ea668db5f0\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69373324a59a1f848ceff22b065ef47b\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Ltd</a>(SE) U.S. stocks announced results before the market opened. Wharf Real Estate (01997), Haifeng International (01308), Chinalco International (02068), and Minmetals Resources (01208) announced their results on the same day.</p><p><b>Wednesday, March 8</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. ADP employment, Powell's monetary policy testimony, China Unicom's performance</b></p><p>The market is paying attention to the change in the number of small non-agricultural ADP employment announced on Wednesday. The data predicted 168,000, compared with the previous value of 106,000.</p><p>The number of new jobs in ADP private companies announced on Wednesday is expected to increase to 195,000 in February, and the number of JOLTS job vacancies in January dropped to 10.6 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b80c91e1725cf662b96020e43c110cc\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Bank of Canada announced the results of its interest rate meeting.</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00293\">Cathay Pacific Airways</a>(00293) 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>(00762), SJM Holdings (00880), Uni-President China (00220), Yuexiu Services (06626)</p><p><b>Thursday, March 9</b></p><p><b>Keywords: China CPI, U.S. initial unemployment benefits for the week, Fed Beige Book, JD.com results</b></p><p>China announced the annual CPI rate for February, which rose 2.1% before the data. The United States announced the number of new applications for unemployment benefits last week, which was previously 190,000.</p><p>The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on the economic situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06b406edcfed6336fced077c62c184\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>IPO:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02482\">Weitian Express</a>(02482)</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>(09618), MTR (00066), Swire (00019), Swire Real Estate (01972), Kowloon Cang Holdings (00004), etc.</p><p><b>Friday, March 10</b></p><p><b>Keywords: U.S. non-agricultural employment population, U.S. unemployment rate, ZTE/Wuxin Technology financial report</b></p><p>On Friday, there were new non-agricultural jobs in February and the unemployment rate in February. The non-agricultural data in January far exceeded expectations and shocked the market. If there is another shock, it may cause fluctuations in U.S. stocks.</p><p>Current market forecasts that new jobs will drop significantly to 215,000 in February. The unemployment rate in February is expected to remain at 3.4%. Another point of concern will be the increase in average hourly wages. The market now expects average hourly wages to rise by 4.7% year-on-year in February, higher than 4.4% in January. If the growth exceeds expectations, it may cause market concerns about inflation and wage spirals.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8003aa2968dc3f8f5a577214d99ebb1b\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Bank of Japan announced the results of its interest rate meeting.</p><p>IPO:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09636\">Jiufang Wealth</a>(09636)</p><p>Results announcement:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>(01299), Huaren Property (00127),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">ZTE Corporation</a>(00763), RLX, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"00762":"中国联通","09961":"携程集团—S","HSI":"恒生指数","00763":"中兴通讯","TCOM":"携程网",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DIS":"迪士尼","02482":"维天运通","09636":"九方智投(一百)",".DJI":"道琼斯","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117804954","content_text":"本週（3.6-3.10）重要財經事件：經濟數據：市場本周將會聚焦多項就業數據，包括周三公布的「小非農」ADP就業人數變動，到周五更有2月非農新增職位及2月份失業率，1月非農數據遠超預期震驚市場，若再出現驚嚇，或會令美股出現波動。財經事件：聯儲局主席鮑威爾周二（7日）及周三（8日）將出席兩場國會聽證會，其講話將令市場更了解當局最新的利率取向。另外，聯儲局周四公布褐皮書，澳洲、加拿大及日本央行本周議息。業績公佈：携程网周一美股盤後公佈業績，Sea Ltd周二美股盤前公佈業績，京东集团-SW 周四美股盤前公佈業績，中国联通、中兴通讯 、友邦保險等亦于本周公佈業績。新股IPO:维天运通 (02482)、九方财富 (09636)分別于3月9日和10日上市。3月6日 週一關鍵詞：美國1月工廠訂單月率、攜程業績經濟數據：市場關注美國1月工廠訂單月率，該數據前值為1.8%。業績公布：携程网美股盤後發佈業績報告。3月7日 週二關鍵詞：鮑威爾國會聽證會聯儲局主席鮑威爾周二（7日）及周三（8日）將出席兩場國會聽證會，其講話將令市場更了解當局最新的利率取向。澳洲央行亦于當日公布議息結果。經濟數據：中國貿易帳，以及美國批發銷售月率等數據。業績公布：Sea Ltd (SE）美股盤前公布業績。九龍倉置業(01997) 、海豐國際(01308) 、中鋁國際(02068) 、五礦資源(01208) 當日公佈業績。3月8日 週三關鍵詞：美國ADP就業人數、鮑威爾發表貨幣政策證詞、中國聯通業績市場關注周三公布的「小非農」ADP就業人數變動，該數據預測16.8萬，前值10.6萬。周三公布的2月ADP私人企業新增職位預計增至19.5萬個，1月JOLTS職位空缺減至1060萬個。加拿大央行公布議息結果。業績公布：国泰航空(00293) 、中国联通 (00762) 、澳博控股(00880) 、統一企業中國(00220) 、越秀服務(06626)3月9日 週四關鍵詞：中國CPI、美國當週初請失業金、美聯儲褐皮書、京東業績中國公佈2月CPI年率，該數據前值為升2.1%。美國公佈上周新申領失業金人數，該數據前值為19萬。美聯儲公布經濟狀況褐皮書。新股上市：维天运通(02482)業績公布：京东集团-SW(09618) 、港鐵(00066) 、太古(00019) 、太古地產(01972) 、九龍倉集團(00004)等3月10日 週五關鍵詞：美國非農就業人口、美國失業率、中興通訊/霧芯科技財報周五有2月非農新增職位及2月份失業率，1月非農數據遠超預期震驚市場，若再出現驚嚇，或會令美股出現波動。現時市場預測2月份新增職位會顯著回落至21.5萬份。2月失業率則預期維持3.4%。另一個關注點會是平均時薪增長幅度，市場現時料2月平均時薪按年升4.7%，較1月4.4%為高，若增長超過預期，或會引起市場對通脹及工資螺旋上升的擔憂。日本央行公布議息結果。新股上市：九方财富 (09636)業績公布：友邦保险 (01299) 、華人置業(00127) 、中兴通讯 (00763)、 霧芯科技(RLX)等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9,"09961":0.9,"TCOM":0.9,"02482":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"09636":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"00763":0.9,"00762":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955158402,"gmtCreate":1675295652606,"gmtModify":1676538990254,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955158402","repostId":"1139522843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139522843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675293368,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139522843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 07:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Powell: Consider pausing after about two more rate hike, it is not appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and it will take time for financial conditions to tighten","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139522843","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation has eased but remains high, but \"for the first time, it can be said that the process of inflation slowing has begun.\" He said that the full effect of the FOMC's rapid monetary policy tightening has not yet appeared. The FOMC is discussing rate hike several times (a couple more) to restrictive levels, and then suspending it. The Fed has not explored the possibility of restarting rate hike after suspending rate hike. Powell emphasized that given the state of the economy, interest rate cuts are not expected this year. He said that the current cycle of the U.S. economy is not a standard economic cycle, but unique. On Wednesday, February 1, after the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</p><p><b>Powell said that the FOMC is discussing a couple more rate hike to restrictive levels and then pausing, and the Fed has not explored the possibility of restarting rate hike after pausing rate hike. Policymakers don't think now is the time to suspend rate hike, he said.</b></p><p><b>Regarding how many rate hike \"several times\" here refers to, Bloomberg interpreted that not everyone will think it is twice, but the media believes that it is basically certain that it will be two more rate hike, that is, in March and May. At the FOMC meeting, it will continue to rate hike at a rate of 25 basis points, which will raise the Federal Funds rate to the range of 5% to 5.25%, reaching the expected peak interest rate level of the Federal Reserve in December.</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Fed to continue its 25 basis point rate hike in March, but Powell stressed that he has no certainty about the May FOMC meeting. Regarding the dot plot in March, he believes that it may be higher than December or lower, depending on the data. The Fed's March FOMC meeting will update the rate hike path assessment, and the Fed will pay attention to the data from now until March.</p><p><b>Powell said he and his FOMC colleagues have made forecasts that this year's rate cut is inappropriate.</b>He said:</p><p>Given our expected economic outlook, I don't think we will cut interest rates this year. However, he added that if inflation falls faster, it will affect policy decisions. On inflation, Powell said:</p><p>We will be cautious in declaring victory against inflation, we are in the early stages of anti-inflation, and it will take time to win. It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and the current interest rate level is not far from the peak of interest rate</p><p>At the press conference, regarding rate hike's actions last year, Powell concluded that the Federal Reserve took strong action.</p><p>Looking ahead, he said, it will be necessary to maintain the restrictive nature of monetary policy on the US economy for some time,<b>It is appropriate for the Fed to continue to expect continued rate hike to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance. He stressed that the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has not yet reached a sufficiently restrictive policy stance.</b></p><p>He continues to strongly commit to meeting the 2% inflation target. He emphasized that price stability is the foundation of the economy, and the current inflation level is much higher than the Fed's target. Fed officials still need to work harder, and the Fed will stick to it until the work is finished. It's too early to declare victory, he said:</p><p>Our expectation is that it will take some time for inflation to come back, and we need to be patient, so we will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. He is still confident of the soft landing of the US economy:</p><p>I think inflation can fall back to 2% without a really severe recession. Regarding the market's discussion on the Fed's future rate hike path,<b>He said that Fed officials have spent a lot of time discussing the future path of interest rate policy, but have not yet made a decision on what the peak interest rate will be in this rate hike cycle, but he believes the current interest rate level is not far from the peak interest rate.</b></p><p>As in previous press conferences, Powell once again reiterated that history warns against premature policy relaxation. The Fed does not want inflation to return, and it is difficult to manage the risks caused by insufficient rate hike. Powell said:</p><p>I don't want it to take six or 12 months after stopping the rate hike before the Fed is forced to conclude that it hasn't done enough to reduce inflation this year and will have to raise interest rates again. But he also stressed that the Fed has no incentive and does not want to tighten interest rates too much, but if the Fed does tighten interest rates too much, the agency still has the tools to solve this problem.</p><p><b>Slowing the pace of rate hike allows the FOMC to assess progress, he said. For the future rate hike process, Powell said that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the policy lag that the market is focusing on, Powell responded that it will take some time to fully see the effects of tightening policies. These lags affected today's FOMC rate hike decision of 25 basis points.</b>Powell said that the full effect of the FOMC's rapid monetary tightening has not yet been seen, but importantly, the market does reflect the tightening policy the Fed is implementing. However,<b>He also said that if it is necessary to adjust the rate hike to the intensity before December (that is, 75 basis points per rate hike), the Fed will do so.</b></p><p>Stable inflation expectations are reassuring, and the process of inflation slowing has begun</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell said the market expects inflation to fall faster than the Fed expects, but he stressed that he didn't know whether a further slowdown in inflation would be \"difficult.\" If inflation really falls faster than the Fed expects, this will affect the Fed's policy decisions. As far as the current situation is concerned, the three-month (quarterly) core PCE inflation indicator in the United States is quite low, and the slowdown in quarterly inflation is welcome. However, whether this trend can continue, the Federal Reserve needs more evidence.</p><p>Powell seemed confident about the Fed's actions to control inflation, saying:</p><p>The United States is expected to fall into ultra-low inflation, which will make people feel satisfied. He also stressed that the good thing is that market expectations for long-term inflation remain stable:</p><p>Inflation expectations appear to be steady, which is reassuring. Powell said inflation may need to be reduced to a pace of economic growth below the long-term trend. He said the Fed is acutely aware of the difficulties that high inflation will bring and will pay close attention to the two-way risks posed by inflation. That will be reflected in policy over time as evidence of inflation pulling back grows, he said.</p><p>Regarding the Fed's actions to fight inflation, Powell believes that inflation is expected to continue to rise and then fall in housing services. However, in the core service industry excluding housing, ultra-low inflation has not yet been seen. The core inflation in the service industry is still around 4%, but the Fed expects ultra-low inflation in the core service industry soon.</p><p><b>Different from previous press conferences, Powell emphasized for the first time the risk of deflation posed by rate hike.</b>He said that deflationary pressures have emerged, especially on commodities, and the Fed is mindful of impending deflation in the housing market. He said:</p><p>For the first time, we can now say that the process of slowing inflation has begun. The current cycle of the U.S. economy is unique</p><p>Regarding the state of the U.S. economy, Powell said economic growth slowed significantly last year, consumer spending appeared to be suppressed, and real estate activity continued to weaken.</p><p><b>Regarding the current economic cycle in the United States, he said that the current cycle is not a standard economic cycle, but unique. He predicted that U.S. economic growth would continue to be moderate.</b></p><p>He stressed that the global economic situation has improved, which is very important for the United States.</p><p>Regarding whether the U.S. Congress will raise the debt ceiling, Powell said discussions on the debt ceiling continue and the Fed will carefully monitor money market conditions:</p><p>I believe Congress will raise the debt ceiling and it must be done. Powell believes that the downward trend in inflation must be rolled out across the U.S. economy. He stressed not to assume that the Fed can protect the economy in the event of a debt default.</p><p>Powell also said that COVID-19 pandemic's influence on the US economy is no longer significant.</p><p>The Fed keeps a close eye on financial conditions, which will take time to tighten</p><p>Regarding the status of financial markets that the market is concerned about, Powell believes that financial conditions have remained basically unchanged since December last year, and the Federal Reserve has been carefully monitoring financial conditions.</p><p><b>Powell emphasized that the Fed's focus now is not on short-term changes in financial conditions, but on continued changes in financial conditions. When formulating policy, the Fed will consider financial conditions and other conditions.</b></p><p>Powell said that tightening financial conditions will take time and require patience.</p><p>The tightening of financial conditions has been very severe last year, Powell said. But he didn't seem to comment on the recent easing of financial markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e207d92f00fd25d372217cc8daa89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Powell's statement was interpreted dovishly by the market. After Powell made a statement on financial market conditions, U.S. stock markets and gold rose, and U.S. bond yields fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23929968e05b7811623571bc0446d58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef9b697f1432afc1602eb96cafd2cb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9dbead1045aa1b53ad50b77b4a3874\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The labor market remains extremely tight</p><p>Regarding the U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor market is still \"extremely tight\", with wage growth increasing, employment growth momentum strong, and labor demand still significantly exceeding supply.</p><p>He stressed the importance of a cooling labor market to control inflation:</p><p>Overall, if the labor market does not reach a better balance, my personal view is that the inflation rate will not continue to return to 2%. Looking at the specific breakdown, Powell said that the Fed is seeing a decline in wage growth, but the job vacancy numbers in the JOLTs report have been quite volatile. Although the labor cost index ECI and average hourly earnings have moved off their highs, they are still quite high. So far, the Fed's tightening hasn't come at the expense of the labor market, which is a good thing, he said.</p><p>Powell said the Fed will also be watching the next ECI report, and yesterday's data showed a decline in wages and was constructive.</p><p>Powell said that once a wage-price spiral can be observed, it will be too late and the Fed cannot allow this to happen. Currently, the Fed sees no signs of a wage-price spiral.</p><p>Regarding the unemployment rate, Powell said that most policymakers predict that the unemployment rate may increase slightly.</p><p>Market reaction</p><p>Traders in the interest rate swap market have concluded that policy direction will shift further to dovish from the middle of the year. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2023 from the peak in June. Traders believe that the U.S. policy rate will peak in June this year, with the overnight lending rate at 4.9%; By December this year, this rate will drop to 4.4%.</p><p>For the next Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate meeting in March, the market is currently only pricing a rate hike premium of 21 basis points, indicating that the market believes that there is an 84% possibility that the Fed will rate hike another 25 basis points. Beyond that, the market believes that the prospect of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May has declined.</p><p>The S&P 500 once rose 1.3%, the Dow turned higher, and the Nasdaq once rose 2.2%.</p><p>In late trading, U.S. stocks collectively rose to daily highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by nearly 250 points or 0.7%. It had previously fallen by more than 500 points or more than 1.5%, and briefly fell below the 34,000-point integer. The S&P 500 index rose as much as 1.8% and rose above 4,100 points, after falling 1% and led by the energy sector. The Nasdaq rose as much as 2.8%, after falling 0.7% before. Russell small-cap stocks rose as much as 2.3% after falling 0.5%.</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell about 12 basis points, as low as 3.3819% on the refresh day; The two-year U.S. bond yield once fell by more than 10 basis points, reaching as low as 4.0981% on the refresh day; The 2/10-year U.S. bond yield spread quickly fell to a daily low of-76.226 basis points after the release of the interest rate decision statement. It has now rebounded to above-71.000 basis points, and the overall decline during the day narrowed to less than 1.6 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: Consider pausing after about two more rate hike, it is not appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and it will take time for financial conditions to tighten</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: Consider pausing after about two more rate hike, it is not appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and it will take time for financial conditions to tighten\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation has eased but remains high, but \"for the first time, it can be said that the process of inflation slowing has begun.\" He said that the full effect of the FOMC's rapid monetary policy tightening has not yet appeared. The FOMC is discussing rate hike several times (a couple more) to restrictive levels, and then suspending it. The Fed has not explored the possibility of restarting rate hike after suspending rate hike. Powell emphasized that given the state of the economy, interest rate cuts are not expected this year. He said that the current cycle of the U.S. economy is not a standard economic cycle, but unique. On Wednesday, February 1, after the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference.</p><p><b>Powell said that the FOMC is discussing a couple more rate hike to restrictive levels and then pausing, and the Fed has not explored the possibility of restarting rate hike after pausing rate hike. Policymakers don't think now is the time to suspend rate hike, he said.</b></p><p><b>Regarding how many rate hike \"several times\" here refers to, Bloomberg interpreted that not everyone will think it is twice, but the media believes that it is basically certain that it will be two more rate hike, that is, in March and May. At the FOMC meeting, it will continue to rate hike at a rate of 25 basis points, which will raise the Federal Funds rate to the range of 5% to 5.25%, reaching the expected peak interest rate level of the Federal Reserve in December.</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Fed to continue its 25 basis point rate hike in March, but Powell stressed that he has no certainty about the May FOMC meeting. Regarding the dot plot in March, he believes that it may be higher than December or lower, depending on the data. The Fed's March FOMC meeting will update the rate hike path assessment, and the Fed will pay attention to the data from now until March.</p><p><b>Powell said he and his FOMC colleagues have made forecasts that this year's rate cut is inappropriate.</b>He said:</p><p>Given our expected economic outlook, I don't think we will cut interest rates this year. However, he added that if inflation falls faster, it will affect policy decisions. On inflation, Powell said:</p><p>We will be cautious in declaring victory against inflation, we are in the early stages of anti-inflation, and it will take time to win. It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and the current interest rate level is not far from the peak of interest rate</p><p>At the press conference, regarding rate hike's actions last year, Powell concluded that the Federal Reserve took strong action.</p><p>Looking ahead, he said, it will be necessary to maintain the restrictive nature of monetary policy on the US economy for some time,<b>It is appropriate for the Fed to continue to expect continued rate hike to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance. He stressed that the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has not yet reached a sufficiently restrictive policy stance.</b></p><p>He continues to strongly commit to meeting the 2% inflation target. He emphasized that price stability is the foundation of the economy, and the current inflation level is much higher than the Fed's target. Fed officials still need to work harder, and the Fed will stick to it until the work is finished. It's too early to declare victory, he said:</p><p>Our expectation is that it will take some time for inflation to come back, and we need to be patient, so we will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. He is still confident of the soft landing of the US economy:</p><p>I think inflation can fall back to 2% without a really severe recession. Regarding the market's discussion on the Fed's future rate hike path,<b>He said that Fed officials have spent a lot of time discussing the future path of interest rate policy, but have not yet made a decision on what the peak interest rate will be in this rate hike cycle, but he believes the current interest rate level is not far from the peak interest rate.</b></p><p>As in previous press conferences, Powell once again reiterated that history warns against premature policy relaxation. The Fed does not want inflation to return, and it is difficult to manage the risks caused by insufficient rate hike. Powell said:</p><p>I don't want it to take six or 12 months after stopping the rate hike before the Fed is forced to conclude that it hasn't done enough to reduce inflation this year and will have to raise interest rates again. But he also stressed that the Fed has no incentive and does not want to tighten interest rates too much, but if the Fed does tighten interest rates too much, the agency still has the tools to solve this problem.</p><p><b>Slowing the pace of rate hike allows the FOMC to assess progress, he said. For the future rate hike process, Powell said that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the policy lag that the market is focusing on, Powell responded that it will take some time to fully see the effects of tightening policies. These lags affected today's FOMC rate hike decision of 25 basis points.</b>Powell said that the full effect of the FOMC's rapid monetary tightening has not yet been seen, but importantly, the market does reflect the tightening policy the Fed is implementing. However,<b>He also said that if it is necessary to adjust the rate hike to the intensity before December (that is, 75 basis points per rate hike), the Fed will do so.</b></p><p>Stable inflation expectations are reassuring, and the process of inflation slowing has begun</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell said the market expects inflation to fall faster than the Fed expects, but he stressed that he didn't know whether a further slowdown in inflation would be \"difficult.\" If inflation really falls faster than the Fed expects, this will affect the Fed's policy decisions. As far as the current situation is concerned, the three-month (quarterly) core PCE inflation indicator in the United States is quite low, and the slowdown in quarterly inflation is welcome. However, whether this trend can continue, the Federal Reserve needs more evidence.</p><p>Powell seemed confident about the Fed's actions to control inflation, saying:</p><p>The United States is expected to fall into ultra-low inflation, which will make people feel satisfied. He also stressed that the good thing is that market expectations for long-term inflation remain stable:</p><p>Inflation expectations appear to be steady, which is reassuring. Powell said inflation may need to be reduced to a pace of economic growth below the long-term trend. He said the Fed is acutely aware of the difficulties that high inflation will bring and will pay close attention to the two-way risks posed by inflation. That will be reflected in policy over time as evidence of inflation pulling back grows, he said.</p><p>Regarding the Fed's actions to fight inflation, Powell believes that inflation is expected to continue to rise and then fall in housing services. However, in the core service industry excluding housing, ultra-low inflation has not yet been seen. The core inflation in the service industry is still around 4%, but the Fed expects ultra-low inflation in the core service industry soon.</p><p><b>Different from previous press conferences, Powell emphasized for the first time the risk of deflation posed by rate hike.</b>He said that deflationary pressures have emerged, especially on commodities, and the Fed is mindful of impending deflation in the housing market. He said:</p><p>For the first time, we can now say that the process of slowing inflation has begun. The current cycle of the U.S. economy is unique</p><p>Regarding the state of the U.S. economy, Powell said economic growth slowed significantly last year, consumer spending appeared to be suppressed, and real estate activity continued to weaken.</p><p><b>Regarding the current economic cycle in the United States, he said that the current cycle is not a standard economic cycle, but unique. He predicted that U.S. economic growth would continue to be moderate.</b></p><p>He stressed that the global economic situation has improved, which is very important for the United States.</p><p>Regarding whether the U.S. Congress will raise the debt ceiling, Powell said discussions on the debt ceiling continue and the Fed will carefully monitor money market conditions:</p><p>I believe Congress will raise the debt ceiling and it must be done. Powell believes that the downward trend in inflation must be rolled out across the U.S. economy. He stressed not to assume that the Fed can protect the economy in the event of a debt default.</p><p>Powell also said that COVID-19 pandemic's influence on the US economy is no longer significant.</p><p>The Fed keeps a close eye on financial conditions, which will take time to tighten</p><p>Regarding the status of financial markets that the market is concerned about, Powell believes that financial conditions have remained basically unchanged since December last year, and the Federal Reserve has been carefully monitoring financial conditions.</p><p><b>Powell emphasized that the Fed's focus now is not on short-term changes in financial conditions, but on continued changes in financial conditions. When formulating policy, the Fed will consider financial conditions and other conditions.</b></p><p>Powell said that tightening financial conditions will take time and require patience.</p><p>The tightening of financial conditions has been very severe last year, Powell said. But he didn't seem to comment on the recent easing of financial markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e207d92f00fd25d372217cc8daa89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Powell's statement was interpreted dovishly by the market. After Powell made a statement on financial market conditions, U.S. stock markets and gold rose, and U.S. bond yields fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23929968e05b7811623571bc0446d58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef9b697f1432afc1602eb96cafd2cb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9dbead1045aa1b53ad50b77b4a3874\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The labor market remains extremely tight</p><p>Regarding the U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor market is still \"extremely tight\", with wage growth increasing, employment growth momentum strong, and labor demand still significantly exceeding supply.</p><p>He stressed the importance of a cooling labor market to control inflation:</p><p>Overall, if the labor market does not reach a better balance, my personal view is that the inflation rate will not continue to return to 2%. Looking at the specific breakdown, Powell said that the Fed is seeing a decline in wage growth, but the job vacancy numbers in the JOLTs report have been quite volatile. Although the labor cost index ECI and average hourly earnings have moved off their highs, they are still quite high. So far, the Fed's tightening hasn't come at the expense of the labor market, which is a good thing, he said.</p><p>Powell said the Fed will also be watching the next ECI report, and yesterday's data showed a decline in wages and was constructive.</p><p>Powell said that once a wage-price spiral can be observed, it will be too late and the Fed cannot allow this to happen. Currently, the Fed sees no signs of a wage-price spiral.</p><p>Regarding the unemployment rate, Powell said that most policymakers predict that the unemployment rate may increase slightly.</p><p>Market reaction</p><p>Traders in the interest rate swap market have concluded that policy direction will shift further to dovish from the middle of the year. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2023 from the peak in June. Traders believe that the U.S. policy rate will peak in June this year, with the overnight lending rate at 4.9%; By December this year, this rate will drop to 4.4%.</p><p>For the next Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate meeting in March, the market is currently only pricing a rate hike premium of 21 basis points, indicating that the market believes that there is an 84% possibility that the Fed will rate hike another 25 basis points. Beyond that, the market believes that the prospect of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May has declined.</p><p>The S&P 500 once rose 1.3%, the Dow turned higher, and the Nasdaq once rose 2.2%.</p><p>In late trading, U.S. stocks collectively rose to daily highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by nearly 250 points or 0.7%. It had previously fallen by more than 500 points or more than 1.5%, and briefly fell below the 34,000-point integer. The S&P 500 index rose as much as 1.8% and rose above 4,100 points, after falling 1% and led by the energy sector. The Nasdaq rose as much as 2.8%, after falling 0.7% before. Russell small-cap stocks rose as much as 2.3% after falling 0.5%.</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell about 12 basis points, as low as 3.3819% on the refresh day; The two-year U.S. bond yield once fell by more than 10 basis points, reaching as low as 4.0981% on the refresh day; The 2/10-year U.S. bond yield spread quickly fell to a daily low of-76.226 basis points after the release of the interest rate decision statement. It has now rebounded to above-71.000 basis points, and the overall decline during the day narrowed to less than 1.6 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680974\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139522843","content_text":"摘要：美联储主席鲍威尔说，通胀有所缓和但仍处于高位，但“现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。”他说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来。FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。鲍威尔强调，鉴于经济状况，预计今年不会降息。他说，当前美国经济所处的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。2月1日周三，在美联储公布最新利率决议后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开记者会。鲍威尔说，FOMC正在讨论再加息几次（a couple more）至限制性水平，之后就暂停，美联储并没有探索暂停加息之后再重新开始加息的可能性。他说，政策制定者并不认为现在是暂停加息的时候。关于这里的“几次”指的是多少次加息，彭博社解读认为，并非每个人都会认为是两次，但该媒体认为基本上可以确定是再加息两次，即在3月和5月的FOMC会议上继续以25个基点的幅度分别加息一次，这将令联邦基金利率上升至5%至5.25%的区间，达到12月时美联储的预期利率峰值水平。市场普遍预计3月美联储将继续加息25个基点，但鲍威尔强调，他对5月FOMC会议不抱任何确定性。关于3月的点阵图，他认为，可能高于12月，也可能更低，具体取决于数据，美联储3月FOMC会议将更新加息路径评估，美联储将留意从现在到三月的数据。鲍威尔表示，他和他的FOMC同事们做出的预测表明，今年降息是不合适。他表示：鉴于我们预期的经济前景，我认为我们今年不会降息。不过他补充称，如果通胀下降得更快，那么这将影响政策决策。在通胀问题上，鲍威尔表示：我们将在宣布抗通胀取得胜利上采取谨慎态度，我们正处于反通胀的早期阶段，取得胜利需要时间。继续加息是适当的，当前利率水平距利率峰值不远在记者会上，对去年一年的加息行动，鲍威尔总结说，美联储采取了有力的行动。展望未来，他说，将需要在一段时期内维持货币政策对美国经济的的限制性，美联储继续预期持续的加息是适当的，以达到充分的限制性立场。他强调，当前美联储制定的利率还没有达到足够限制性的政策立场。他继续强烈承诺将实现2%通胀目标。他强调，物价稳定是经济的基础，当前的通胀水平远高于美联储的目标，美联储官员们仍然需要付出更多努力，美联储将坚持到底，直到工作完成。他说，现在宣布胜利还为时过早：我们的预期是，通胀需要一定时间才能回落，我们需要耐心，因此将需要在更长时间内保持较高的利率。他对美国经济软着陆依然有信心：我认为通胀可以回落到2%，而不会出现真正严重的经济衰退。关于市场对于美联储未来加息路径的讨论，他说，美联储官员们花了很多时间讨论利率政策的未来路径，但还没有就本轮加息周期的利率峰值是多少做出决定，但他相信当前的利率水平已经距离利率峰值不远了。和前几次记者会一样，鲍威尔再次重申，历史告诫不要过早放松政策，美联储不希望通货膨胀卷土重来，很难管理加息不够带来的风险。鲍威尔说：我不希望在停止加息后的6个月或12个月后，美联储才迫不得已得出结论：今年在降低通货膨胀方面做得不够，将不得不再次提高利率。但他也强调，美联储没有动力也不想过度收紧利率，但如果美联储真的过度收紧，该机构依然有工具来解决这个问题。他说，放慢加息节奏可以让FOMC评估进展。对于未来的加息进程，鲍威尔说，将在逐个会议上做出决定。对于市场关注的政策滞后性，鲍威尔回应称，需要一段时间才能充分看到紧缩政策的效果，这些滞后性影响了今天FOMC加息25个基点的决定。鲍威尔说，FOMC迅猛紧缩货币政策的全面效果尚未显现出来，但重要的是，市场确实反映了美联储正在实施的紧缩政策。不过，他也说，如果需要调整加息幅度至12月以前的力度（即每次加息75个基点），美联储将那样做。通胀预期稳定令人安心，通胀放缓进程已经开始关于通胀，鲍威尔说，市场预计通胀下降速度比美联储预期的更快，但是他强调，不知道通胀进一步放缓是否会“艰难”。如果通胀下降速度真的比美联储预期的快，这将影响美联储的政策决策。就目前的状况来看，美国三个月期（季度性）核心PCE通胀指标相当低，季度性通胀放缓是可喜的，但这一趋势是否可以延续，美联储需要更多证据。鲍威尔对美联储控制通胀的行动似乎很有信心，他说：美国有望陷入超低通胀，这将让人感到心满意足。他也强调，好的一点是，市场对长期通胀的预期保持稳定：通胀预期似乎很稳定，这令人安心。鲍威尔说，可能需要将通胀增速降低至低于长期趋势的经济增长速度。他说，美联储敏锐地意识到高通胀会带来困难，将高度关注通胀带来的双向风险。他说，随着通货膨胀回落的证据越来越多，这将随着时间的推移反映在政策中。关于美联储对抗通胀的行动，鲍威尔认为，预计通胀将继续在住房服务领域上升，然后下降。但在不包括住房的核心服务业中，还没有看到超低通胀现象，服务业通胀的核心仍在4%左右，不过美联储预计核心服务业将很快出现超低通胀现象。和前几次记者会不同的是，鲍威尔首次强调了加息带来的通缩风险。他说，通缩压力已经浮现，特别是在商品方面，美联储注意到房地产市场即将出现通货紧缩。他说：我们现在第一次可以说，通货膨胀放缓进程已经开始。美国经济当前所处的周期独一无二关于美国的经济状况，鲍威尔说，去年经济增长明显放缓，消费者支出似乎受到抑制，房地产活动继续疲软。关于美国当前所处的经济周期，他说，当前的周期不是一个标准的经济周期，是独一无二的。他预测美国经济增长将继续保持温和。他强调，全球经济形势有所改善，这对美国很重要。关于美国国会是否会提高债务上限，鲍威尔说，关于债务上限的讨论仍在继续，美联储将仔细监测货币市场状况：我相信国会会提高债务上限，这是必须的。鲍威尔认为，通胀下降的趋势必须在整个美国经济中铺开。他强调，不要假设美联储可以在发生债务违约时保护经济。鲍威尔还说，新冠疫情在美国经济中影响不再重大。美联储密切关注金融状况，金融状况收紧需要时间关于市场关注的金融市场的状况，鲍威尔认为，自去年12月以来，金融状况基本保持不变，美联储也在一直仔细监控金融状况。鲍威尔强调，美联储现在关注的重点不是金融状况的短期变化，而是侧重于金融条件的持续变化，在制定政策时，美联储将考虑金融状况和其他条件。鲍威尔说，金融状况收紧将需要时间，需要耐心。鲍威尔说，去年金融状况收紧非常严重。但他似乎并没有对最近金融市场变得宽松作出评论。鲍威尔的此番表态被市场做了鸽派解读，在鲍威尔就金融市场状况表态后，美国股市、黄金上涨，美债收益率下行。劳动力市场依然极度紧张关于美国的劳动力市场，鲍威尔说，劳动力市场仍然“极度紧张”，工资增速提高，就业增长势头强劲，劳动力需求依然大幅超过供给。他强调劳动力市场降温对于控制通胀的重要性：总的来看，如果劳动力市场没有达到更好的平衡，我个人的观点是，通胀率不会持续回到2%。具体拆分来看，鲍威尔说，美联储看到工资增速在下降，但是JOLTs报告中的职位空缺数字一直相当不稳定。尽管劳动力成本指数ECI和平均时薪已经脱离高点，但仍然相当高。他说，到目前为止，美联储的紧缩政策并没有以劳动力市场为代价，这是一件好事。鲍威尔说，美联储还将关注下一份ECI报告，昨天的数据显示工资下降，具有建设性。鲍威尔说，一旦能观察到工资—价格螺旋上升，就太晚了，美联储不能允许这种情况发生，当前，美联储没有看到工资—价格螺旋上升的迹象。关于失业率，鲍威尔说，大多数政策制定者预测失业率可能会略有上升。市场反应利率互换市场的交易员得出的结论是，政策方向将从今年年中开始进一步转向鸽派。交易员们预计，到2023年年底，美联储将较6月利率峰值降息50个基点。交易员们认为，今年6月美国政策利率将达到峰值，隔夜拆借利率为4.9%；到今年12月，这一利率将下降至4.4%。对于下一次即3月召开的美联储FOMC议息会议，目前市场仅定价21个基点的加息溢价，这表明市场认为美联储将再加息25个基点的可能性为 84%。除此之外，市场认为美联储在5月份再次加息的前景已经下降。标普500指数一度上涨1.3%，道指转涨，纳指一度上涨2.2%。尾盘时美股集体转涨至日高，道指最高涨近250点或涨0.7%，此前一度跌超500点或跌超1.5%，短暂失守3.4万点整数位。标普500指数最高涨1.8%并升破4100点，此前跌1%且能源板块领跌。纳指最高涨2.8%，此前跌0.7%。罗素小盘股最高涨2.3%，此前跌0.5%。美国10年期国债收益率跌约12个基点，刷新日低至3.3819%；两年期美债收益率一度跌超10个基点，刷新日低至4.0981%；2/10年期美债收益率利差在利率决议声明发布后迅速跌至日低-76.226个基点，目前反弹至-71.000个基点上方，日内整体跌幅收窄至不足1.6个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955158255,"gmtCreate":1675295602577,"gmtModify":1676538990246,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955158255","repostId":"2308726057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308726057","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675295438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2308726057?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 07:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Sister Wood\" has a big recovery: ARKK soared 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance in history","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308726057","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After two consecutive years of declines, ARKK surged 27.8% in January, its best monthly performance on record, benefiting from a strong rebound in technology stocks in January. Sister Wood reminded investors not long ago that U.S. stocks need to notice that the Federal Reserve said it was sending a signal to end the rate hike process. With the strong rebound of U.S. technology stocks in January, the flagship fund run by \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood also \"recovered\", setting its best monthly performance in history.</p><p>The flagship fund run by Cathie Wood, according to Dow Jones Market Data<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(ARKK) rose 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance on record.</p><p>In 2020, U.S. technology stocks benefited from the wave of home office and learning brought about by COVID-19 pandemic, and ARKK soared nearly 150% that year. As the Federal Reserve begins to consider Taper in 2021, especially since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate hike last year, rising interest rates have reduced the valuation of technology companies. Technology stocks have been the first to be hit, and ARKK's investment strategy has also been affected. ARKK will fall 21% and 67% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bb19e68d53ab5d955a20abaca1cf54\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, U.S. bond yields have begun to fall, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to further slow down the pace of rate hike. In addition, investors do not believe that the Federal Reserve will really implement its plan to keep interest rates above 5% for a period of time. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates within the year.</p><p>Treasury yields fell sharply in January. The 2-year and 5-year Treasury Bond yields fell by 22 basis points and 37 basis points, respectively. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell back to 3.49% from a peak of 4.2% in October last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/339d561af834045964365a2ae1c50075\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This is the second largest monthly decline in 5-year U.S. Treasury yields since March 2020, the peak of Fed interventions during the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe059733e60730ad473fd43fcdd465b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Not long ago, Wood said at the quarterly investor seminar:</p><p><b>We are pleased to see bond yields starting to decline.</b>If the logic of rising interest rates disproportionately hurting growth stocks last year is reversed, then the discounted value of future cash flows should rise. Just like in the early 1980s, the stock market needs to pay attention to the Federal Reserve saying that it is sending a signal to end the rate hike process. Wood has repeatedly warned that sudden rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a period of deflation, saying,<b>By mid-2023, inflation could fall to 3% or less.</b></p><p>I think the Fed is close to ending this tightening move. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 10.7% in January, its best January performance since 2001 and its largest monthly increase since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180e00989326614d76f66b198186237a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wood's favor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla, which performed well in January and recorded its worst performance in history last year, achieved a 44% increase in January.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Sister Wood\" has a big recovery: ARKK soared 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance in history</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Sister Wood\" has a big recovery: ARKK soared 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance in history\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 07:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After two consecutive years of declines, ARKK surged 27.8% in January, its best monthly performance on record, benefiting from a strong rebound in technology stocks in January. Sister Wood reminded investors not long ago that U.S. stocks need to notice that the Federal Reserve said it was sending a signal to end the rate hike process. With the strong rebound of U.S. technology stocks in January, the flagship fund run by \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood also \"recovered\", setting its best monthly performance in history.</p><p>The flagship fund run by Cathie Wood, according to Dow Jones Market Data<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(ARKK) rose 27.8% in January, the best monthly performance on record.</p><p>In 2020, U.S. technology stocks benefited from the wave of home office and learning brought about by COVID-19 pandemic, and ARKK soared nearly 150% that year. As the Federal Reserve begins to consider Taper in 2021, especially since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate hike last year, rising interest rates have reduced the valuation of technology companies. Technology stocks have been the first to be hit, and ARKK's investment strategy has also been affected. ARKK will fall 21% and 67% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bb19e68d53ab5d955a20abaca1cf54\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, U.S. bond yields have begun to fall, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to further slow down the pace of rate hike. In addition, investors do not believe that the Federal Reserve will really implement its plan to keep interest rates above 5% for a period of time. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates within the year.</p><p>Treasury yields fell sharply in January. The 2-year and 5-year Treasury Bond yields fell by 22 basis points and 37 basis points, respectively. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell back to 3.49% from a peak of 4.2% in October last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/339d561af834045964365a2ae1c50075\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This is the second largest monthly decline in 5-year U.S. Treasury yields since March 2020, the peak of Fed interventions during the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe059733e60730ad473fd43fcdd465b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Not long ago, Wood said at the quarterly investor seminar:</p><p><b>We are pleased to see bond yields starting to decline.</b>If the logic of rising interest rates disproportionately hurting growth stocks last year is reversed, then the discounted value of future cash flows should rise. Just like in the early 1980s, the stock market needs to pay attention to the Federal Reserve saying that it is sending a signal to end the rate hike process. Wood has repeatedly warned that sudden rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a period of deflation, saying,<b>By mid-2023, inflation could fall to 3% or less.</b></p><p>I think the Fed is close to ending this tightening move. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 10.7% in January, its best January performance since 2001 and its largest monthly increase since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180e00989326614d76f66b198186237a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wood's favor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Tesla, which performed well in January and recorded its worst performance in history last year, achieved a 44% increase in January.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680964\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdcf7fb84fcd8462e772a725a35e3d36","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680964","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308726057","content_text":"在连续两年下跌后，受益于科技股在1月的强劲反弹，ARKK在1月份大涨27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。木头姐在前不久提醒投资者，美股需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。随着美国科技股在1月的强劲反弹，“木头姐”Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金也“大回血”，创下有史以来的最佳月度表现。根据道琼斯市场数据，Cathie Wood掌管的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF（ARKK）在1月份累计上涨达27.8%，创下有记录以来的最佳月度表现。在2020年，美国科技股受益于新冠疫情带来的居家办公和学习浪潮，ARKK在当年飙涨了近150%。随着美联储从2021年开始考虑Taper，尤其是去年美联储开始激进加息以来，不断提高的利率令科技公司估值下降，科技股最先受到打击，ARKK的投资策略也遭到波及，ARKK在2021年和2022年分别下跌了21%和67%。今年以来，美债收益率开始回落，市场也普遍预期美联储将进一步放缓加息脚步，此外，投资者不相信美联储真的会落实维持利率在5%以上一段时间的计划，交易员们押注美联储将在年内开始降息。美债收益率在1月份大幅下行。2年期和5年期国债收益率分别下行22个基点和37个基点。10年期美债收益率也从去年10月4.2%的峰值回落至3.49%。这是自2020年3月（美联储在疫情期间实施干预措施的高峰）以来，5年期美债收益率出现的第二大月度降幅。前不久，Wood在季度投资者研讨会上说：我们很高兴看到债券收益率开始下降。如果去年利率上升对成长型股票造成不成比例伤害的逻辑逆转了，那么未来现金流的折现价值应该会上升。就像在1980年代初期一样，股市需要注意到美联储说它正在发出结束加息进程的信号。Wood曾一再警告称，美联储突然加息可能引发一段时期的通缩，并表示，到2023年年中，通胀率可能降至3%或更低。我认为美联储即将结束这一紧缩举措。1月纳斯达克综合指数为累计上涨10.7%，创2001年以来的最佳1月份表现，并刷新去年7月来最大月度涨幅。Wood青睐的特斯拉在1月表现抢眼，在去年创历史最差表现的特斯拉，在1月斩获44%的涨幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952565631,"gmtCreate":1674829243924,"gmtModify":1676538961150,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952565631","repostId":"1142142923","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952022680,"gmtCreate":1674274904741,"gmtModify":1676538935043,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>","text":"$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/938d579b970dfc4e09c04f34a5df653d","width":"1284","height":"2364"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915593812","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918026902,"gmtCreate":1664287908948,"gmtModify":1676537426105,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918026902","repostId":"1106991391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106991391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664284198,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106991391?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 21:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106991391","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Today, we mainly discuss a question, what's wrong with developed countries in the context of this wave of strong US dollar.</p><p>The US Dollar Index DXY is a backward index. Since its birth, the composition and weight of this index have not changed. The three largest components behind the index are the euro 57.6%, the Japanese yen 13.6% and the British pound 11.9%, accounting for 82%. The 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Index have been adjusted many times since their birth. The current 30 stocks are completely different from the 30 stocks in the first edition, but even so, not many people look at the Dow Jones Index now. I don't understand why ICE, the organization behind the US Dollar Index DXY, is too lazy to spend resources on the index. If this index is promoted a little, there will be many products to develop.</p><p>The three figures below show the trade of the United States with Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom, from 2000 to 2021. The blue column represents U.S. exports to that region, the orange column represents U.S. imports from that region, the gray line represents imports + exports, and the yellow line represents U.S. trade surplus deficit to that region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China's customs data likes to say \"import + export\" (gray line in the picture above), and the figure that the United States, especially Trump's era, likes to emphasize is \"surplus/deficit\" (yellow line in the picture above). In fact, both figures are very important. \"Import + export\" measures the closeness between the two economies. The larger the number, the tighter the binding between the two economies; The \"surplus/deficit\" measures the strength or weakness of one economy relative to another.</p><p>In the past 20 years, the activity of trade between these three countries/regions and the United States is +100% for the European Union, +0% for Japan and +50% for the United Kingdom. The trade activity of the United States relative to the world (figure below) has increased by +130%. This shows,<b>The economic activity of these three countries/regions and the United States has all declined in the past 20 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The biggest decline in activity is the US-Japan economic and trade, which has been standing still in the past 20 years; In the economic and trade relations between the United States and Britain, the import and export are almost balanced, which means that Britain can't earn dollars in its trade with the United States. The currencies of these two countries will be very uncomfortable against the background of a strong dollar. Because Japan is in a surplus position in long-term transactions with the United States, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan are much higher than those of the United Kingdom. The key to proving that the short-term yen is defensive is the attitude of the Bank of Japan. The chart below shows the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Japan's foreign reserves (red line) are 9 times that of the United Kingdom (green line).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GBP < JPY < < EUR.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-27 21:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Today, we mainly discuss a question, what's wrong with developed countries in the context of this wave of strong US dollar.</p><p>The US Dollar Index DXY is a backward index. Since its birth, the composition and weight of this index have not changed. The three largest components behind the index are the euro 57.6%, the Japanese yen 13.6% and the British pound 11.9%, accounting for 82%. The 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Index have been adjusted many times since their birth. The current 30 stocks are completely different from the 30 stocks in the first edition, but even so, not many people look at the Dow Jones Index now. I don't understand why ICE, the organization behind the US Dollar Index DXY, is too lazy to spend resources on the index. If this index is promoted a little, there will be many products to develop.</p><p>The three figures below show the trade of the United States with Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom, from 2000 to 2021. The blue column represents U.S. exports to that region, the orange column represents U.S. imports from that region, the gray line represents imports + exports, and the yellow line represents U.S. trade surplus deficit to that region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China's customs data likes to say \"import + export\" (gray line in the picture above), and the figure that the United States, especially Trump's era, likes to emphasize is \"surplus/deficit\" (yellow line in the picture above). In fact, both figures are very important. \"Import + export\" measures the closeness between the two economies. The larger the number, the tighter the binding between the two economies; The \"surplus/deficit\" measures the strength or weakness of one economy relative to another.</p><p>In the past 20 years, the activity of trade between these three countries/regions and the United States is +100% for the European Union, +0% for Japan and +50% for the United Kingdom. The trade activity of the United States relative to the world (figure below) has increased by +130%. This shows,<b>The economic activity of these three countries/regions and the United States has all declined in the past 20 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The biggest decline in activity is the US-Japan economic and trade, which has been standing still in the past 20 years; In the economic and trade relations between the United States and Britain, the import and export are almost balanced, which means that Britain can't earn dollars in its trade with the United States. The currencies of these two countries will be very uncomfortable against the background of a strong dollar. Because Japan is in a surplus position in long-term transactions with the United States, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan are much higher than those of the United Kingdom. The key to proving that the short-term yen is defensive is the attitude of the Bank of Japan. The chart below shows the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Japan's foreign reserves (red line) are 9 times that of the United Kingdom (green line).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GBP < JPY < < EUR.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106991391","content_text":"今天主要讨论一个问题，在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。美元指数DXY是一个落后的指数，这个指数从诞生开始，指数里面的成分和权重就没有变化过。指数后面最大的3个成分是欧元57.6%，日元13.6%和英镑11.9%，这3个货币占比82%。道琼斯指数30只股票，从诞生之初调整多次，目前30只股票和第一版的30只股票已经完全不一样，但即使这样现在看道琼斯指数的人也不多了。搞不懂为何美元指数DXY后面的机构ICE却懒得在指数上花资源，这个指数稍微做点推广，会有很多产品可以搞。下面三个图，分别是美国对欧洲、对日本和对英国的贸易，时间从2000-2021年。蓝柱代表美国对那个地区的出口，橙柱代表美国从那个地区的进口，灰色线代表进口+出口，黄线代表美国对那个地区的贸易顺差逆差。中国海关的数据喜欢说“进口+出口”（上图灰线），美国特别是川普时期喜欢强调的数字是“顺差/逆差”（上图黄线），其实这两个数字都很重要。“进口+出口”衡量的是两个经济体之间的紧密程度，数字越大代表两个经济体绑定得越紧；“顺差/逆差”衡量的是某个经济体相对于另一个经济体的强弱地位。过去20年，这三个国家/地区和美国的贸易的活跃程度，欧盟+100%，日本+0%，英国+50%。而美国相对于全世界的贸易活跃程度（下图）是增加了+130%。这就说明，这3个国家/地区和美国的经济活跃程度，在过去20年全部在下降。活跃程度下降得最大的是美日经贸，过去20年原地踏步；而美英的经贸关系中，进出口几乎平衡，也就是说英国在和美国贸易往来中，是赚不到美元的。这两个国家的货币，在强势美元的背景下会非常难受。日本因为长期和美国的交易中，处于顺差地位，所以日本央行的外汇储备远远高于英国，证明短期日元是有防御能力的关键是日本央行的态度。下图是日本央行和英国央行的外汇储备，日本的外储（红线）是英国（绿线）的9倍。英镑<日元<<欧元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MJYmain":1,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910846043,"gmtCreate":1663601294682,"gmtModify":1676537299428,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910846043","repostId":"1164103449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164103449","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1663585741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164103449?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 19:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"At the end of the Fed's current round of rate hike, investment banks have seen 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164103449","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。德意志银行，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed's rate hike is just around the corner, and U.S. stocks have taken two steps back. The most pessimistic banks on Wall Street are no longer much concerned about the Fed's rate hike in September, but are full of anxiety about the end of the Fed's current rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>, which was described by the market as the most pessimistic bank on Wall Street, has become the focus in recent days because of its \"too\" aggressive views on the Fed's rate hike. Matt Luzzetti, the bank's U.S. economist, said that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in the first quarter of 2023, when the U.S. federal benchmark interest rate will reach 4.9%, close to 5%!</p><p>The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on September 20-21, local time. The U.S. inflation data released on the eve of the meeting once again exceeded expectations, and the market has fully accepted the \"radical view\" that the end interest rate of the Federal Reserve's current rate hike cycle is 4%. However, investment banks poured cold water on the market when their emotions were extremely fragile.</p><p>In the last Fed rate hike cycle, the final interest rate stayed at 2.25%-2.5%. If<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>If the prediction comes true, then the magnitude of this round of Fed rate hike is twice that of the last one, and it will be completed within one year. Last week, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, said that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 4.5%, U.S. stocks will have to fall another 20%.</p><p>Now, the wider impact on financial markets thanks to the Fed rate hike. The yield on one-year U.S. bonds reached 4.004% last week, up from 4%. The mortgage interest rate in the United States has reached 6%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Deutsche Bank explained in the report that the prerequisite for a rate hike terminal rate close to 5% is that \"inflation in the United States is expected to stay at a higher level for a longer time.\" Matt Luzzetti further explained that in all previous tightening cycles, the Federal Reserve has often raised the federal benchmark interest rate above inflation, regardless of whether inflation is high or low.</p><p>Matt Luzzetti told the media that the Federal Reserve now needs more stringent policies, and the real interest rate or inflation-adjusted interest rate must be positive. Now, Fed officials can't rely on forecasts to \"let inflation fall over time,\" they'll have to do something to get interest rates above inflation, at least early next year.</p><p>However, Deutsche Bank doesn't think that interest rates close to 5% will last long in the United States.</p><p>The recent morale of U.S. stocks has been suppressed by unexpected inflation data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The profit warning of FedEx further deepened the pessimism pervading the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Chief U.S. economist Carl Riccadonna believes this is in line with his view that the U.S. economy is \"decelerating significantly.\"</p><p>This is not the first time Deutsche Bank has issued a pessimistic view. In April this year, Deutsche Bank was the first major Wall Street bank to call the U.S. economy a recession. In the same month, it went a step further and said it saw downside risks in line with its pessimistic assumptions. In June, the bank's macro strategist Tim Wessel said he saw the possibility that inflation would not slow down. Just three days ago, Henry Allen, a research analyst at the bank, said that \"pessimists will unfortunately win\" when it comes to the debate over whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Unfortunately, more and more investment banks are joining Deutsche Bank.</p><p>Last Friday, Rabobank, a Dutch financial services company, said it was once again worried about the prospect of higher-than-expected interest rates. Philip Marey, strategist at the bank, said U.S. Federal Funds rate is expected to peak at 5% next year, up from the previous forecast of 4.5%, due to persistent inflation and the wage and price spiral that has begun. Rabobank also said it does not expect the Fed to change its interest rate stance before 2024, that is, the Fed will not start cutting interest rates in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At the end of the Fed's current round of rate hike, investment banks have seen 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt the end of the Fed's current round of rate hike, investment banks have seen 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-19 19:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed's rate hike is just around the corner, and U.S. stocks have taken two steps back. The most pessimistic banks on Wall Street are no longer much concerned about the Fed's rate hike in September, but are full of anxiety about the end of the Fed's current rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>, which was described by the market as the most pessimistic bank on Wall Street, has become the focus in recent days because of its \"too\" aggressive views on the Fed's rate hike. Matt Luzzetti, the bank's U.S. economist, said that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in the first quarter of 2023, when the U.S. federal benchmark interest rate will reach 4.9%, close to 5%!</p><p>The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on September 20-21, local time. The U.S. inflation data released on the eve of the meeting once again exceeded expectations, and the market has fully accepted the \"radical view\" that the end interest rate of the Federal Reserve's current rate hike cycle is 4%. However, investment banks poured cold water on the market when their emotions were extremely fragile.</p><p>In the last Fed rate hike cycle, the final interest rate stayed at 2.25%-2.5%. If<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>If the prediction comes true, then the magnitude of this round of Fed rate hike is twice that of the last one, and it will be completed within one year. Last week, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, said that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 4.5%, U.S. stocks will have to fall another 20%.</p><p>Now, the wider impact on financial markets thanks to the Fed rate hike. The yield on one-year U.S. bonds reached 4.004% last week, up from 4%. The mortgage interest rate in the United States has reached 6%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Deutsche Bank explained in the report that the prerequisite for a rate hike terminal rate close to 5% is that \"inflation in the United States is expected to stay at a higher level for a longer time.\" Matt Luzzetti further explained that in all previous tightening cycles, the Federal Reserve has often raised the federal benchmark interest rate above inflation, regardless of whether inflation is high or low.</p><p>Matt Luzzetti told the media that the Federal Reserve now needs more stringent policies, and the real interest rate or inflation-adjusted interest rate must be positive. Now, Fed officials can't rely on forecasts to \"let inflation fall over time,\" they'll have to do something to get interest rates above inflation, at least early next year.</p><p>However, Deutsche Bank doesn't think that interest rates close to 5% will last long in the United States.</p><p>The recent morale of U.S. stocks has been suppressed by unexpected inflation data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>The profit warning of FedEx further deepened the pessimism pervading the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Chief U.S. economist Carl Riccadonna believes this is in line with his view that the U.S. economy is \"decelerating significantly.\"</p><p>This is not the first time Deutsche Bank has issued a pessimistic view. In April this year, Deutsche Bank was the first major Wall Street bank to call the U.S. economy a recession. In the same month, it went a step further and said it saw downside risks in line with its pessimistic assumptions. In June, the bank's macro strategist Tim Wessel said he saw the possibility that inflation would not slow down. Just three days ago, Henry Allen, a research analyst at the bank, said that \"pessimists will unfortunately win\" when it comes to the debate over whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing.</p><p>Unfortunately, more and more investment banks are joining Deutsche Bank.</p><p>Last Friday, Rabobank, a Dutch financial services company, said it was once again worried about the prospect of higher-than-expected interest rates. Philip Marey, strategist at the bank, said U.S. Federal Funds rate is expected to peak at 5% next year, up from the previous forecast of 4.5%, due to persistent inflation and the wage and price spiral that has begun. Rabobank also said it does not expect the Fed to change its interest rate stance before 2024, that is, the Fed will not start cutting interest rates in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164103449","content_text":"美联储加息在即，美股进一步退两步，华尔街最悲观的银行已经不太关心美联储9月加息多少，而是对美联储本轮加息的终点充满焦虑。德意志银行，被市场成为华尔街最悲观的银行，最近几天因为对美联储加息的看法“过于”激进成为焦点。该行的美国经济学家Matt Luzzetti 表示，美联储在2023年一季度结束加息，届时美国联邦基准利率将达到4.9%，接近5%！美联储将在当地时间9月20-21日举行议息会议。在会议前夕公布的美国通胀数据再一次超预期，市场已经完全接受了美联储本轮加息周期的终点利率为4%的“激进观点”。然而，投行们在情绪极端脆弱的时候，再给市场浇冷水。在上一轮美联储加息周期，最终的利率停留在 2.25%-2.5%，如果德意志银行的预测成真，那么本轮美联储加息的幅度就是上一次的两倍，而且在一年以内完成。上周，桥水基金创始人达里奥表示，如果美联储将利率提高到4.5%，美股还得再跌20%。现在，由于美联储加息，对金融市场更广泛的影响。一年期美债收益率已经在上周达到 4.004%，高于4%。美国房贷利率已经达到6%，达到2008年以来的最高水平。德意志银行在报告中解释称，接近5%的加息终点利率的前提条件是“预计美国的通胀在较高水平停留更长的时间”。Matt Luzzetti 进一步解释称，在以往所有的紧缩周期中，美联储经常会将联邦基准利率提高至高于通胀的水平，不管通胀水平是高还是低。Matt Luzzetti 对媒体表示，美联储现在需要更加严厉的政策，真实利率或者称经通胀调整后的利率必须为正。现在，美联储官员不能依靠预测“让通胀随着时间下降”，他们必须做点什么让利率高于通胀，至少在明年初做到这一点。但是，德意志银行并不认为，接近5%的利率会在美国持续很久。美股近期的士气受到超预期通胀数据的打压。联邦快递公司（FedEx）的盈利警告进一步加深了弥漫市场的悲观情绪。法国巴黎银行首席美国经济学家Carl Riccadonna认为，这符合他的观点，即美国经济正在“大幅减速”。德意志银行并不是第一次发表悲观看法。今年4月，德意志银行第一家称美国经济衰退的华尔街大银行。就在同一个月，它更进一步地说，看到了符合其悲观假设的下行风险。6月份，该行宏观策略师Tim Wessel表示，看到了通胀无法减速的可能性。就在三天前，该行研究分析师Henry Allen表示，当谈到美国经济能否实现软着陆的辩论时，“悲观主义者将不幸获胜”。不巧的是，越来越多的投行加入德意志银行。上周五，荷兰金融服务公司荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）称，对利率高于预期的前景再次表示担忧。该行策略师Philip Marey表示，预计明年美国联邦基金利率将达到5%的峰值，高于此前预测的4.5%，因为持续的通货膨胀和已经开始的工资与价格螺旋上升。荷兰合作银行还表示，预计美联储不会在2024年前改变其利率立场，即2023年美联储不会开启降息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937797550,"gmtCreate":1663499857670,"gmtModify":1676537279870,"author":{"id":"4106048906582030","authorId":"4106048906582030","name":"54oo_","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/487558a38e7b519d3eaf5dabf2b07629","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106048906582030","idStr":"4106048906582030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937797550","repostId":"1104525951","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104525951","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663521051,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104525951?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 01:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! FedEx, Costco and more to report earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104525951","media":"汇通网","summary":"本周（9.19-9.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国9月LPR报价、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI等将陆续公布。央行动态方面，美联储将于周四凌晨公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.19-9.23):</b>In terms of economic data, China's September LPR quotation, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI will be announced one after another.</p><p>In terms of central bank dynamics, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation in the early hours of Thursday morning.</p><p>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>, Wuxin Technology, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09886\">Jingle Health</a>Pole<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>Wait for financial reports to be released.</p><p>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It is expected to land on HKEx on Wednesday; Digital Science and Technology Group announced the winning results on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80a811f2f13f393961e977202363150\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h2><b>Monday, September 19</b></h2><b>As for economic events,</b>Pay attention to the September press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission on Monday.</p><p>In addition, European Central Bank Vice President Guindos will deliver a speech. On September 15, Guindos said that economic growth in the euro zone will slow down significantly, monetary policy will remain accommodative, and inflation is expected to be unacceptably high this year and next. He also said that the euro zone needs to stop the continued rise in prices.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO.US\">Automotive zone</a>The earnings report will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><h2><b>Tuesday, September 20</b></h2><b>Keywords: China's September LPR quotation, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5bda46e6b28311522a7854e68372bf\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>In terms of economic data, you can pay attention to the September LPR quotation.</b>Experts believe that the MLF operating interest rate remained unchanged in September, mainly because the effect of the central bank's policy of cutting interest rates beyond expectations last month remains to be seen. Considering the recent decline in bank deposit costs and the need to stabilize growth, there is still room for a reduction in the market quoted interest rate (LPR) for loans over five years during the year.</p><p>On September 20, Japan will announce its August CPI, which is expected to continue to remain high.</p><p>On September 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision, raising the overnight cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35%, which was in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA also stressed that there is no \"preset path\" in controlling inflation. On September 20th, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the Reserve's thinking.</p><p><h2><b>Wednesday, September 21</b></h2><b>Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending September 16, Wuxin Technology financial report, Tencent Music listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ecfb0ac8698fdbbb8e2c88f9dee652\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending September 9 were 6.035 million barrels, expected to be-200,000 barrels, and the previous value was 3.645 million barrels.</p><p>EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending September 9 actually announced an increase of 2.442 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 833,000 barrels, and an increase of 8.844 million barrels in the previous value. In addition, the EIA gasoline inventory in the United States actually reported a decrease of 1.767 million barrels for the week ending September 9, compared with an expected decrease of 858,000 barrels, and an increase of 333,000 barrels in the previous value; EIA refined oil inventories in the United States actually reported an increase of 4.2190 million barrels for the week ending September 9, compared with an expected increase of 633,000 barrels, and an increase of 95,000 barrels in the previous value.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Aurora Cannabis Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX.US\">Fog Core Technology</a>Will release earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01698.HK\">Tencent Music-SW</a>Expected to land on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the same day<b>。</b></p><p><h2><b>Thursday, September 22</b></h2><b>Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, Ctrip/Costco earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf0b5804e88d37aa4923170b831e0ea\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"1269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On September 22, investors need to focus on the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. According to CME \"Federal Reserve Watch\": The probability of the Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points by September is 80%, and the probability of rate hike of 100 basis points is 20%; The probability of accumulating 125 basis points in rate hike by November is 36%, the probability of accumulating 150 basis points in rate hike is 53%, and the probability of accumulating 175 basis points in rate hike is 11%.</p><p>On September 22, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 17, after the data fell for five consecutive weeks, but as the Federal Reserve aggressively rate hike to control demand across the economy, including the labor market, This trend may reverse.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM.US\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST.US\">Costco</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><h2><b>Friday, September 23</b></h2><b>Keywords: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, FedEx financial report, Digital Technology Group announced winning results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb4c87b75fe29f5aeb9f8ab8db244e1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in August was 51.5, a new low since July 2020. It was expected to be 51.3, and the previous value was 51.3.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX.US\">FedEx</a>Will report earnings. After the U.S. stock market closed on September 15, FedEx unexpectedly withdrew the company's 2023 fiscal year performance guidance as of the end of May next year, suggesting that \"business conditions will further weaken\" during the peak freight season in the fourth quarter of this year, triggering an avalanche of stock prices. Because FedEx's performance is closely related to the vitality of the U.S. real economy, the market often regards its financial report as a barometer of the vitality of the U.S. economy. That's why Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra called the company's withdrawal of optimistic guidance issued three months ago \"shocking.\"</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02350.HK\">Digital Group</a>The winning results will be announced. The company closed its IPO on September 16. According to public data, as of 9:00 am on September 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02350\">Digital Group</a>The financing subscription amount has been obtained is HK $922 million, which is over-subscribed by more than 68 times.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"HTW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! FedEx, Costco and more to report earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! FedEx, Costco and more to report earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">汇通网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-19 01:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.19-9.23):</b>In terms of economic data, China's September LPR quotation, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI will be announced one after another.</p><p>In terms of central bank dynamics, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation in the early hours of Thursday morning.</p><p>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>, Wuxin Technology, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09886\">Jingle Health</a>Pole<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>Wait for financial reports to be released.</p><p>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It is expected to land on HKEx on Wednesday; Digital Science and Technology Group announced the winning results on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80a811f2f13f393961e977202363150\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h2><b>Monday, September 19</b></h2><b>As for economic events,</b>Pay attention to the September press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission on Monday.</p><p>In addition, European Central Bank Vice President Guindos will deliver a speech. On September 15, Guindos said that economic growth in the euro zone will slow down significantly, monetary policy will remain accommodative, and inflation is expected to be unacceptably high this year and next. He also said that the euro zone needs to stop the continued rise in prices.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO.US\">Automotive zone</a>The earnings report will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><h2><b>Tuesday, September 20</b></h2><b>Keywords: China's September LPR quotation, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5bda46e6b28311522a7854e68372bf\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday,<b>In terms of economic data, you can pay attention to the September LPR quotation.</b>Experts believe that the MLF operating interest rate remained unchanged in September, mainly because the effect of the central bank's policy of cutting interest rates beyond expectations last month remains to be seen. Considering the recent decline in bank deposit costs and the need to stabilize growth, there is still room for a reduction in the market quoted interest rate (LPR) for loans over five years during the year.</p><p>On September 20, Japan will announce its August CPI, which is expected to continue to remain high.</p><p>On September 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision, raising the overnight cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35%, which was in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA also stressed that there is no \"preset path\" in controlling inflation. On September 20th, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the Reserve's thinking.</p><p><h2><b>Wednesday, September 21</b></h2><b>Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending September 16, Wuxin Technology financial report, Tencent Music listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ecfb0ac8698fdbbb8e2c88f9dee652\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending September 9 were 6.035 million barrels, expected to be-200,000 barrels, and the previous value was 3.645 million barrels.</p><p>EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ending September 9 actually announced an increase of 2.442 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 833,000 barrels, and an increase of 8.844 million barrels in the previous value. In addition, the EIA gasoline inventory in the United States actually reported a decrease of 1.767 million barrels for the week ending September 9, compared with an expected decrease of 858,000 barrels, and an increase of 333,000 barrels in the previous value; EIA refined oil inventories in the United States actually reported an increase of 4.2190 million barrels for the week ending September 9, compared with an expected increase of 633,000 barrels, and an increase of 95,000 barrels in the previous value.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Aurora Cannabis Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX.US\">Fog Core Technology</a>Will release earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01698.HK\">Tencent Music-SW</a>Expected to land on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the same day<b>。</b></p><p><h2><b>Thursday, September 22</b></h2><b>Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, Ctrip/Costco earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf0b5804e88d37aa4923170b831e0ea\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"1269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On September 22, investors need to focus on the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. According to CME \"Federal Reserve Watch\": The probability of the Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points by September is 80%, and the probability of rate hike of 100 basis points is 20%; The probability of accumulating 125 basis points in rate hike by November is 36%, the probability of accumulating 150 basis points in rate hike is 53%, and the probability of accumulating 175 basis points in rate hike is 11%.</p><p>On September 22, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 17, after the data fell for five consecutive weeks, but as the Federal Reserve aggressively rate hike to control demand across the economy, including the labor market, This trend may reverse.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM.US\">Ctrip.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST.US\">Costco</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><h2><b>Friday, September 23</b></h2><b>Keywords: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, FedEx financial report, Digital Technology Group announced winning results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdb4c87b75fe29f5aeb9f8ab8db244e1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in August was 51.5, a new low since July 2020. It was expected to be 51.3, and the previous value was 51.3.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX.US\">FedEx</a>Will report earnings. After the U.S. stock market closed on September 15, FedEx unexpectedly withdrew the company's 2023 fiscal year performance guidance as of the end of May next year, suggesting that \"business conditions will further weaken\" during the peak freight season in the fourth quarter of this year, triggering an avalanche of stock prices. Because FedEx's performance is closely related to the vitality of the U.S. real economy, the market often regards its financial report as a barometer of the vitality of the U.S. economy. That's why Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra called the company's withdrawal of optimistic guidance issued three months ago \"shocking.\"</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02350.HK\">Digital Group</a>The winning results will be announced. The company closed its IPO on September 16. According to public data, as of 9:00 am on September 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02350\">Digital Group</a>The financing subscription amount has been obtained is HK $922 million, which is over-subscribed by more than 68 times.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.fx678.com/202209161355112074.shtml\">汇通网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4155":"大卖场与超市",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","FDX":"联邦快递","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4131":"航空货运与物流",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","COST":"好市多",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com/202209161355112074.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104525951","content_text":"本周（9.19-9.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国9月LPR报价、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PMI等将陆续公布。央行动态方面，美联储将于周四凌晨公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期。财报方面，联邦快递、好市多、雾芯科技、携程、叮当健康、极奥罗拉大麻公司等将发布财报。新股方面，腾讯音乐预计周三登陆港交所；数科集团周五公布中签结果。9月19日 周一经济事件方面，周一可关注国家发改委9月新闻发布会。此外，欧央行副行长金多斯将发表讲话。9月15日，金多斯曾表示，欧元区经济增长将显着放缓，货币政策仍然宽松，预计今年和明年的通胀率将高得令人无法接受。他还表示，欧元区需要阻止物价的持续上涨。财报方面，汽车地带将于美股盘前公布财报。9月20日 周二关键词：中国9月LPR报价，澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要周二，经济数据方面可关注9月LPR报价。专家认为，9月MLF操作利率保持不变，主要在上月央行超预期降息的政策效果还待观察。考虑到近期银行存款成本下降，以及稳增长需要，年内五年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）仍存调降空间。9月20日，日本将公布8月CPI，料继续维持高位。9月6日，澳大利亚联储公布利率决议，将隔夜现金利率目标上调50个基点至2.35％，符合预期，此为澳联储连续第四次加息50个基点。澳大利亚联储并强调在控制通胀方面没有“预设路径”。9月20日，澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解联储想法的更多细节。9月21日 周三关键词：美国截至9月16日当周API和EIA原油库存变动，雾芯科技财报、腾讯音乐登陆港交所美国至9月9日当周API原油库存603.5万桶，预期-20万桶，前值364.5万桶.美国截至9月9日当周EIA原油库存变动实际公布增加244.20万桶，预期减少83.3万桶，前值增加884.4万桶。此外，美国截至9月9日当周EIA汽油库存实际公布减少176.70万桶，预期减少85.8万桶，前值增加33.3万桶；美国截至9月9日当周EIA精炼油库存实际公布增加421.90万桶，预期增加63.3万桶，前值增加9.5万桶。财报方面，奥罗拉大麻公司和雾芯科技将发布财报。新股方面，腾讯音乐-SW预计当日登陆港交所。9月22日 周四关键词：美联储利率决议、美国初请失业金人数、携程/好市多财报9月22日，投资者需重点关注美联储和英国央行的利率决议。据CME“美联储观察”：美联储到9月份加息75个基点的概率为80%，加息100个基点的概率为20%；到11月份累计加息125个基点的概率为36%，累计加息150个基点的概率为53%，累计加息175个基点的概率为11%。9月22日，美国将公布截至9月17日当周初请失业金人数，此前该数据连降五周，不过随着美联储激进加息以控制包括劳动力市场在内的整个经济领域的需求，这一趋势可能会逆转。财报方面，携程网、好市多将公布财报。9月23日 周五关键词：美国Markit制造业PMI、联邦快递财报、数科集团公布中签结果美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值51.5，创2020年7月份以来终值新低，预期51.3，前值51.3。财报方面，联邦快递将公布财报。9月15日美股盘后，联邦快递意外撤销了截至明年5月末的公司2023财年业绩指引，被暗示今年四季度的货运旺季“商业状况进一步走弱”，引发股价雪崩。而由于联邦快递业绩和美国实体经济活力紧密相连，市场常常将其财报视作美国经济活力的晴雨表。因此，德银分析师Amit 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