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1.28K
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OptionsDelta
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04-16 23:49

Two Large Bearish Orders

ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower. A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention. $NVDA Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M. As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else. Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasi
Two Large Bearish Orders
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WallStreet_Tiger
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04-16 22:12

🎁What the Tigers Say | TSMC Delivers the Validation — ASML's "Cautious Optimism" Just Got Its Green

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to “What the Tigers say.” 👋 Semi Super Week has now delivered its verdict. ASML set the stage on April 15 with a solid but cautious Q1 print that left some investors worried the AI capex wave was softening. This morning, TSMC answered emphatically — reframing the debate from "is the cycle cooling?" to "how long can this run?" Before TSMC stepped up to the plate this morning, the community was already doing the heavy lifting on what ASML's "cautious optimism" meant for the rest of the semi complex. Let's rewind to the three sharpest takes from LanceLjx, nerdbull1669 and xc__: 1.
🎁What the Tigers Say | TSMC Delivers the Validation — ASML's "Cautious Optimism" Just Got Its Green
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Tiger_SG
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04-16 21:03

SG Bank Earnings Season | Goldman’s View: Which One Looks Promising?

$DBS(D05.SI)$ will fire the first shot on April 30, followed by $UOB(U11.SI)$ (May 7) and $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ (May 8). Goldman’s latest report gives a clear verdict: overall earnings should be “decent enough,” but the divergence among the three banks is becoming more obvious — net interest margin pressure, wealth management as a bright spot, and credit costs as the biggest hidden risk. Which one are you betting on? Goldman Takeaway: What’s the Core Logic This Quarter? Goldman’s overall forecast for 1Q26 is: quarter-on-quarter recovery, but mild year-on-year pressure. Three numbers will determine the direction of share prices on earnings day: the actual de
SG Bank Earnings Season | Goldman’s View: Which One Looks Promising?
TOP1PC: I wish I could hold All 3 [Happy] but 2 is the limit (DBS & UOB) [Happy]. They are still one of the best pairs [Heart] on my portfolio [Call] [Allin]. I hope UOB will be the dark horse 🐎 in the coming earnings report 🙏 @Shyon @Barcode @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @koolgal @JC888 @DiAngel
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Futures_Pro
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04-16 20:08

📊Futures Weekly: Money Flows Out of Stocks Despite the Rally, While Precious Metals Bulls Cool Off

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b
📊Futures Weekly: Money Flows Out of Stocks Despite the Rally, While Precious Metals Bulls Cool Off
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Tiger_comments
·
04-16 16:49

The End of the PDT Era: Historical Moment for Retail Investors or Harvesting Game?

The SEC has formally abolished the Pattern Day Trading (PDT) rule that had been in place for two decades. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ jumps 10% on the news! This is not just the disappearance of a number — it is the fifth major historic “opening of the floodgates” moment in the U.S. stock market over the past 50 years. But behind this newly opened door lies a question: is it gold, or a trap? For the past twenty years, U.S. retail investors were divided into two classes: Account > $25,000: You were free, with unlimited intraday trading. Account < $25,000: You were labeled as a “PDT” trader, allowed only 4 round trips within 5 days, and violations could result in account restrictions. Now, that wealth barrier has been shattered. The SEC no longer looks
The End of the PDT Era: Historical Moment for Retail Investors or Harvesting Game?
TOPShyon: From my perspective, removing the PDT rule is a double-edged sword. It looks like true democratization—no more $25,000 barrier—but markets reward discipline, not access. This shift puts full responsibility on the individual, and I think many retail traders will overestimate their edge while underestimating how fast intraday losses can snowball. Looking back at past changes—from commission deregulation to the zero-commission wave led by $Robinhood(HOOD)$ and $Charles Schwab(SCHW)$ —each reform boosted access but also speculation. I see PDT removal the same way: higher volumes and tighter spreads, but the biggest winners are still brokerages and market makers, not the average trader. Personally, I’m not changing my approach. Consistency comes from patience and risk control, not trading more. This may increase volatility in AI and small caps, but more opportunity doesn’t mean better outcomes. In this environment, survival is the real edge. @TigerStars @TigerClub @Tiger_comments
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BTS
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04-15 18:09
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  $Netflix(NFLX)$   Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a major earnings beat, signaling a rebound in investment banking and equity financing; the "GS bar" raises expectations for peers seeking a "beat & pop" this week Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) benefits from AI-driven chip demand and strong guidance, but geopolitical risks and semiconductor cyclicality are key limiting factors Netflix (NFLX) faces high expectations after price hikes; while low churn and ad-tier growth counter flat engagement trends, strong forward guidance is essential to mitigate ongoing valuation r

GS Just Set the Bar! TSM, NFLX... Who Has "Beat & Pop" Potential This Week?

@Tiger_comments
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ just smashed a Wall Street record, yet the stock fell. $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ $Citigroup(C)$ $Bank of America(BAC)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ We are officially in a "Beat and Fade" market. Everyone is looking through the windshield, not the rearview mirror. With $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , $Netflix(NFLX)$ , and the big banks on deck, this week will reprice the rest of 2026. 1. Goldman paradox: record high but fell Goldman didn't just beat; they obliterated expectations: Equi
GS Just Set the Bar! TSM, NFLX... Who Has "Beat & Pop" Potential This Week?
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a major earnings beat, signaling a rebound ...
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1.07K
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Lanceljx
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04-15 18:10
This is not just a headline rally, it is breadth-supported, which matters far more at these levels. A few grounded points to frame it: 1. Breadth vs concentration Gains in Micron Technology, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA, and TSMC supply chain names suggest this is still an AI infrastructure-led expansion, not a narrow squeeze. That supports sustainability in the near term. 2. TSM as the “truth anchor” TSM’s earnings are critical because they validate: AI demand real vs over-ordered Advanced node utilisation (3nm / CoWoS bottlenecks) Forward capex signals If TSM beats + raises guidance: 7,000 is very likely taken out quickly Expect momentum overshoot (not just a clean break) NVDA/MU could lead a second leg higher If TSM beats but guides cautiously: Index may still tag 7,000, but fade risk increas
This is not just a headline rally, it is breadth-supported, which matters far more at these levels. A few grounded points to frame it: 1. Breadth v...
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805
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Lanceljx
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04-15 18:14
The framing is directionally sound, but it is worth separating technical momentum from earnings-validated repricing. 1. What the breakout actually means The move above $190–$195 in NVIDIA is significant because that zone was supply-heavy. Clearing it suggests: Positioning has flipped from distribution to accumulation Buyers are willing to front-run earnings validation Coupled with strength in Micron Technology and TSMC, the signal is that the AI stack is moving in sync, not in isolation. 2. Can $200 be reclaimed first? Yes, and quite plausibly before earnings, but the nuance is important: Path 1: Momentum-led break (most likely near-term) NVDA tags or briefly clears $200 on flow and sentiment. Risk: prone to rejection or consolidation just above $200. Path 2: Earnings-backed breakout (more
The framing is directionally sound, but it is worth separating technical momentum from earnings-validated repricing. 1. What the breakout actually ...
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1.28K
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Lanceljx
·
04-15 18:18
This is a nuanced setup. A simple “buy the dip” answer would be too blunt. 1. What ASML is really signalling ASML Holding is showing a sharp demand rotation, not outright weakness: Memory jump (30% → 51%) aligns with AI-driven HBM/NAND capex Logic decline reflects timing and lumpiness, not structural collapse The soft Q2 outlook matters because ASML sits upstream. When they guide cautiously, it usually reflects: Order timing delays Export control friction (especially China exposure) Visibility gaps, not necessarily demand destruction 2. “Drop then rebound” pattern That pattern exists, but it works best when: Weakness is clearly temporary End-demand remains intact Right now, the memory surge actually supports the AI thesis, but export controls introduce a real overhang. This is not a clean
This is a nuanced setup. A simple “buy the dip” answer would be too blunt. 1. What ASML is really signalling ASML Holding is showing a sharp demand...
TOPPandaExpress: ASML sells their multi-million dollar machines to the likes of $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ . these machines last a long time unless they have super high maintenance contracts with chip manufactures, their upside could slower than chip makers. just my opinion.
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Shyon
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04-15 18:30
I’ve been watching this “retail buying the dip” trend in S-REITs, but I’m not blindly following it. CapLand Ascendas REIT and Mapletree Industrial Trust are solid, but heavy inflows suggest sentiment is getting crowded. I prefer to scale in gradually rather than chase, especially with rates still a key risk for REITs. I’m leaning more toward what institutions are doing. The continued interest in $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI)$ makes sense given the structural demand from AI and cloud. That’s a stronger long-term driver compared to traditional sectors, so I’d rather st
I’ve been watching this “retail buying the dip” trend in S-REITs, but I’m not blindly following it. CapLand Ascendas REIT and Mapletree Industrial ...
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637
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Shyon
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04-15 22:14
I’m not chasing — but I’m not running either. A 10-day rally $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ with strong breadth tells me this isn’t just short-covering, it’s real risk appetite coming back. When tech and financials rise together and high-beta leads, it usually signals a forward-looking growth phase, not just headline-driven moves. That said, I respect the timing risk. With the index near all-time highs and geopolitical noise rising, a short-term pullback is likely. But I see it more as a positioning reset than a trend reversal — a shakeout before the next leg higher. If I had to choose, I’m still on high-beta tech/software. That’s where capital is flowing and upside compounds fastest. I’d rat
I’m not chasing — but I’m not running either. A 10-day rally $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ with strong breadth tells me this isn’t just short...
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Shyon
·
04-15 22:22
I’m holding both sides of this barbell — I own $DBS(D05.SI)$ $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ because they play different roles in my portfolio. The banks give me stability & steady dividend income, especially when NIM remains strong. DBS and OCBC are core long-term compounders rather than trading positions. Sembcorp, on the other hand, is my growth engine. The renewable energy transition in Asia is a multi-year structural trend. I like that Sembcorp is already executing & hitting targets ahead of schedule, which lowers execution risk. So while ba
I’m holding both sides of this barbell — I own $DBS(D05.SI)$ $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ because they play different roles in my por...
TOP1PC: Nice Sharing 😁 Strong 💪 Combo 😀 @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888
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Barcode
·
04-16 03:15
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  🚀📊🧠 Microsoft’s AI Supercycle Is Being Re-Rated: Earnings Power, Flow, and Infrastructure Align 🧠📊🚀 📈 $MSFT is delivering one of its strongest sessions of 2026, up +5%, and I’m not viewing this as a short-term move. This is a continuation signal driven by institutional capital rotating into durable AI earnings and infrastructure control. I’m watching the tape closely, and the signal is decisive. 📊 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 🟢 $31M+ in aggressive single-leg call buying 🔴 $6M+ in puts sold This is not hedging. This is directional conviction. Calls being bought while puts are sold reflect
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚀📊🧠 Microsoft’s AI Supercycle Is Being Re-Rated: Earnings Power, Flow, and Infrastructure Align ...
TOP1PC: Nice Sharing 😁 @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel @JC888 @Shyon @koolgal
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Barcode
·
04-16 03:27
$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  Volatility Beta Regime Shift Powers SPX Advance: Positioning Flows and the Limits of Compression I am observing $SPX price action as a direct function of volatility dynamics rather than standalone fundamentals, with the relationship displaying unusual precision in recent sessions. 📉 The mechanical driver behind the advance The compression in $VIX from 31 to 18 over the past two weeks has delivered the primary impulse. Historical beta relationships imply that a 13-point unwind supports roughly a 7% $SPX lift; the actual 9.4% move indicates an aggressive layer of
$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Volatility Beta Regime Shift Powers SPX Advance: Positioning Flows and t...
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Pinkspider
·
04-16 04:56

TESLA

$TSLA up 7.4% today, marking its best daily performance in 9 months. I attribute 20% of today’s move to the market (Nasdaq up 1.4%), along with a UBS upgrade earlier today. I believe 80% of the move is related to Elon’s nocturnal post on X announcing the tape out for Hardware 5 is complete. That’s an important update given in the world where cars are computers on wheels, a 5x improvement in chip performance helps unlock FSD and Robotaxi. As a point of reference, AI4 started to ramp in 2023, and my best guess is AI5 comes out in the middle of next year. Elon has not commented on timing.
TESLA
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koolgal
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04-16 06:19
🌟🌟While the world watches the US Iran war enter its 47th day, Nasdaq has defied physics with a 10 Day vertical climb.  The reality is there is a brutal maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz &  talk of a short term peace deal feels more like a smoke machine than reality. Instead of chasing the dragon in high beta software, which is currently trading like the war has ended, I am currently retreating behind the $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF(SPYV)$ shield. SPYV is specifically designed to track the S&P500 Value Index which filters the broad market for companies showing the strongest value traits. SPYV avoids "growth bubbles" as it leans into mature sectors like Financials, Energy & Industrials.  These are compa
🌟🌟While the world watches the US Iran war enter its 47th day, Nasdaq has defied physics with a 10 Day vertical climb. The reality is there is a bru...
TOPMeowvin: Thank for sharing
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koolgal
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04-16 06:38
🌟🌟🌟April has been historically S&P500's strongest month, averaging a 1.5% to 2.4% gain over the last 20 to 50 years. With the potential Middle East ceasefire news acting as a massive tailwind, the Best April Ever is within reach if the peace talks in Islamabad hold. Early bank earnings have been excellent and if Big Tech follows suit, the party could easily continue through May. It is a great time to celebrate your gains but don't drink so much that you forget where the exit is.  Instead of a total exit it is important to stay invested.  I am using $Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$ to collect dividends while waiting for the outcome of the peace talks.  SCHD pays me a dividend yield of 3.35% while waiting for capital growth

【🎁有獎話題】反彈係咪離場最佳時機?美股指期貨最佳四月會唔會出現?

@期貨茄哩虎
小虎們,根據外媒消息,美國總統特朗普表示,在英國國王訪問美國之前,「很有可能」與伊朗達成協議!在強勢反彈後,是離場最佳時機還是半場開香檳呢?美股及股指期貨「最佳四月」是否會到來呢? 美股無視戰況強勢反彈! 中東局勢目前已經進入第七週,雖然美伊兩國此前同意停火兩週,以色列黎巴嫩也同意和談,但市場依舊對未來局勢保持恐慌與謹慎,因為不清楚特朗普什麼時候會發一個推文就重新點燃戰火。 而全球金融市場也出現了不同趨勢變化,中國市場資金淨流入狀況良好;巴西股市大幅上升;受到戰事影響較大的WTI原油主連期貨價格,雖然本週已經累計跌超7%,但仍在90美元關口震盪;黃金主連期貨價格不知不覺又重新回到4800美元;標普500波動率指數本月累計跌超28%至18左右(已經回落至戰前水平)。 而美股卻無視戰況,開啓了強勢反彈模式:自從3月27日以來,標普500已經上升近10%,有望連續第三週走高,並且距離1月底的歷史新高已經不足1%;納斯達克100指數已經十連升,創下2021年以來最長連升紀錄。[Miser] 本輪反彈依舊是由「美股七巨頭」領銜,在過去十個交易日中大升15%,此外軟件股、半導體等板塊也有不錯的貢獻。根據高盛數據,預計英偉達和美光科技這兩家公司貢獻本季度標普500指數盈利增長的50%!有分析師提出一個比較有意思的觀點:與俄烏衝突類似,美國金融市場正在學習如何與美伊戰爭共存。[Tongue] 科技股帶領美股強勢反彈 圖源:finviz.com 受到兩國戰事所導致的全球油價飆升,國際貨幣基金組織日前發布的《全球金融穩定報告》中提到,雖然全球金融體系目前擋住了中東戰事和能源衝擊,但由於衝突依舊充滿不確定性,現有體系的「脆弱性風險」可能會被放大。此外,該組織在最新的《世界經濟展望報告》中將今年世界經濟增長預期下調0.2個百分點至3.1%。 這樣的擔憂並非沒有根據,鑑於此前特朗普的「變臉政策」,除
【🎁有獎話題】反彈係咪離場最佳時機?美股指期貨最佳四月會唔會出現?
🌟🌟🌟April has been historically S&P500's strongest month, averaging a 1.5% to 2.4% gain over the last 20 to 50 years. With the potential Middle East...
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koolgal
·
04-16 07:52
Google and Gitlab Deal - Why It Is Such A Big Deal  🌟🌟🌟The air is thick with anticipation as we head into earnings season.  Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  is eye balling a massive acquisition of $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$  .  It is the kind of move that makes your heart race - a collision of the world's search giant and the backbone of the developer world. The Gitlab and Google collaboration is a massive power play for Cloud and AI supremacy, moving far beyond simple storage into the realm of "intelligent orchestration". What Does Git
Google and Gitlab Deal - Why It Is Such A Big Deal 🌟🌟🌟The air is thick with anticipation as we head into earnings season. Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $...
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koolgal
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04-16 08:13
🌟Navigating the current market requires a delicate balance of capturing the momentum of record breaking highs while shielding against the risks of the Iran war with defensive ETFs. A good defensive ETF is $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ .  XLP focuses on the boring essential businesses that remain steady even when the rest of the market is volatile. XLP is recession resistant as it tracks companies that sell things people need such as food, beverages, toilet paper, not things they want. The top holdings of XLP includes $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ the world's largest retailer ,
🌟Navigating the current market requires a delicate balance of capturing the momentum of record breaking highs while shielding against the risks of ...
TOPMeowvin: Thank you 🙏 always
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Mrzorro
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04-16 08:35
ASML Beat the Quarter, but the Hard Part Comes Next $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$   delivered the kind of print bulls wanted on the surface: a clean first quarter, a higher 2026 sales outlook, and management commentary that AI-related demand is getting stronger.  The more important read, though, is underneath the headline. Revenue guidance moved higher, but the gross margin range did not. That means the quarter strengthens the demand story, while leaving the harder debate unchanged, can $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ turn stronger demand into a cleaner second half with solid profitability.  What the quarter actually showed The quarter itself was solid. Net sales were €8.767 billion, gross margin was 53.0%, an
ASML Beat the Quarter, but the Hard Part Comes Next $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ delivered the kind of print bulls wanted on the surface: a clean first ...
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