A SpaceX IPO likely forces the market to look beyond rockets and start repricing the full supply chain and infrastructure layer beneath the space economy: Spacecraft & Launch Systems • $York Space Systems, Inc(YSS)$ manufactures standardized satellite buses for rapid deployment • $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ builds launch vehicles, spacecraft systems & broader orbital infrastructure • $Voyager Technologies, Inc.(VOYG)$ supplies space infrastructure & in-space services for government programs • $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ provides lunar landers &
The US-Iran confrontation just escalated sharply after Iran refused another round of talks, citing Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade and what it calls "unreasonable demands." 😤 In response, the US is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked oil tankers in international waters under "Operation Economic Fury," a direct pressure campaign aimed at forcing Iran to reopen the Strait and make nuclear concessions. This move targets the heart of global oil flows, with the Strait handling roughly 20% of the world’s crude — a blockade or sustained disruption could immediately tighten supply by 7-11 million barrels per day and send prices spiraling. Markets are already reacting with oil futures jumping and safe-haven flows pouring into gold, but the big question is whether this operation triggers a pr
Earnings Face-Off: Will the Rally Take a Breather?
U.S. equities concluded the week on a decidedly bullish note, driven by major geopolitical de-escalation and a strong start to earnings season. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced 4.5% for the week, crossing the 7,100 milestone for the first time and closing Friday at a record 7,125.36. This marks an 11.9% gain for the benchmark index over the past three weeks. The tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 6.8% weekly to settle at 24,468.48, notching its 13th consecutive day of gains and extending its longest winning streak since 1992. The blue-chip $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ added 3.2% for the week to close at 49,447.92, while the $iShares Russe
Greed Replaces Fear: $SPX Signals Strength as $AMZN $NVDA Stretch
The S&P 500 ($SPX) continues to show powerful momentum, supported by historically bullish RSI shifts. However, overbought conditions across mega-cap tech suggest the rally may pause before its next leg higher. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Smart Money was peaking and fear was at an extreme 15 at the end of March. Today, "Dumb Money" is peaking and greed has taken over 68. Rapid RSI changes on the weekly are strong momentum signals. Bullish follow-through 6 and 12 months later every time. Returns were also bullish 1 and 3 months later with the sole exception of 1994 which saw a consolidation before the bullish continuation resumed. 2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Upper Bollinger Band breached + overbought RSI have prec
This is Trump's midterm year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed from $697 to $629 so far. Its at $712 right now. The average drawdown for any given midterm year is 20%. Trump says he will have to end ceasefire and peace agreement with Iran this weekend. You'll get 1 more chance to buy the dip. Every midterm year since 1974. Its the same pattern. 1974 Ford: −35% → +38% a year later 1978 Carter: −15% → +24% 1982 Reagan: −17% → +58% 1986 Reagan: −10% → +35% 1990 Bush: −20% → +29% 1994 Clinton: −8% → +37% 1998 Clinton: −22% → +40% 2002 Bush: −34% → +34% 2006 Bush: −8% → +24% 2010 Obama: −17% → +30% 2014 Obama: −10% → +17% 2018 Trump: −20% → +37% 2022 Biden: −27% → +25% 2026 Trump: -10% so far... Avg drawdown: −19% Avg 1-yr from the bottom: +33%
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has been one of my highest-conviction stocks for most of the past year, only to see its shares go through the market ringer. But the past few weeks, we’ve gone from market capitulation to euphoria as shares become semi-loved again. Sentiment hasn’t fully flipped, but it’s getting there, and I continue to think this is one of the highest potential stocks in the market. The reason shares are up over the past week is peptides. The FDA officially removed 12 peptides from “Category 2”, which meant they couldn’t be compounded, and scheduled a meeting in July with an advisory panel to discuss whether some of these peptides can be compounded again. This could be a huge deal. I called Peptides a 1,000x opportunity for Hi
While traders are focussed on looking at setups and next trades, elite traders are obsessed with extracting more edges from their system and market. While most traders are taught to focus on risk management, use stop loss, the real shift of a trader comes in finding the edge where potential reward is much higher than the risk you are taking. Within our team, they have been highly debating the pros and cons of these two methods and the market environment/setup in which either of these methods would benefit the most. While everyone thinks and is told the main goal of Risk management is only about reducing losses, It is about creating asymmetric R:R outcomes while staying aligned with opportunity. If you are not familiar with what we are talking about, we are referring to elite traders Jeff T
Hold AMD Past $300 Long-Term, Play Volatility Tactically WIth Option
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 's recent performance has been explosive, with the stock closing at $278.39 on April 17, 2026—effectively a 32% gain since the start of April. With the next earnings report scheduled for May 5, 2026, the window for a strategic play is narrow but well-defined. As I am holding AMD for long-term, I might not consider to sell, rather hold AMD, and play option to take advantage of current AMD bullish streak, but question is whether this run can last, so in this article I would like to share my thoughts. Hold or Sell at $300? Whether to hold or exit at $300 depends on your risk tolerance regarding the "Earnings Run-up" vs. "Sell the News" phenomenon. The Case for $300: AMD is currently trading at a high Price-to-Earnings (P/
Market Melt-Up Then Selloff? Top 20 Stocks for the Next Dip
$730 is $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ target right now, but after it will crash 20% says Tom Lee to $580. When ON SALE, I'd add these 20 stocks: 1. $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ – Quantum computing leader with massive asymmetric upside Buy zone: $20–25 = early-stage value accumulation 2. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ – Cheap energy + AI compute = powerful margin expansion Buy zone: $25–30 = strong support + cost advantage 3. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ – Space-based telecom disruptor with global scalability potential Buy zone: $65–70 = high conviction accumulation 4. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ – AI da
$CVB.AU$ By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are on a roll, with S&P 500 ($SPX; SPY), NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) and now Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM) all making new all-time highs simultaneously. Back in January and February, $SPX made a new all-time high by a few points on several occasions, but it was never able to put together a strong breakout rally as follow-through. Eventually, that was onerous, and the market fell. But now it appears to be adding to the breakout gains, which is a very positive sign. Technically, there should now be support at 7000 (the old highs). It would be disappointing to see $SPX trade back below 7000 now, but if it did, there should be support at 6800, and then at the bottom of the gap near 6600. There is no
Bullish Structure Intact Across ENPH TSLA ULTA COIN Setups
Several high-profile stocks are showing early signs of institutional accumulation, with key “smart money zones” holding and technical structures beginning to shift bullish across names like ENPH, TSLA, ULTA, and COIN. 1. $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ $ENPH is building a strong base right above the Smart Money Zone. Point of control support is holding. 70% of the time when this setup forms price rallies back to recent highs within 90 to 120 days. That puts the upside target at $54 by August. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $TSLA has cleared this resistance level on the daily Great sign for the bulls and congrats if you held 🤝🥳 3. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ $ULTA is pushing out of the S
This is 99-year seasonality $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ across the 4-year presidential cycle: This is where you are: 1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend 2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns 3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here) 4. Pre-election → strong rally This chart shows the peak around April then weakness into Septemer. Then massive rally into pre-election year Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly): 1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem The market rallied on the idea of cuts. 2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time We were trending toward 2%… Now back above 3%. This traps the Fed. They can’t cut. 3. Oil + war = earnings compression If oil keeps pushing high
SPY Breaks Out of Pin, Eyes 710 as Gamma Structure Shifts
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is now at 706 and positioning has shifted from pin to expansion. Here’s the clean read. Net GEX is +10.60B. Still positive, still long gamma, but no longer extreme. This allows price to move with direction instead of being stuck. 707–708 is now the dominant zone. You can see heavy positive GEX stacking here. This becomes your new magnet and control area. Below, 700–702 is your key support band. You can clearly see negative GEX sitting under price. If this breaks, moves can accelerate lower toward 697. Above, 710 is the next level building. Strong positioning there means if momentum continues, price can push quickly into that zone. 3 scenarios: Most likely: slight bullish continuation, range between 705–708 with upw
Last week the Weekly Compass presented 12 setups 10 reached their targets, 1 neared their target, only 1 moved in the opposite way. or remained constructive, resulting in a 91.6% effectiveness rate. The targets were based on these modeled support and resistance levels, and I was doubtful of some of them reaching their target considering the previous two rally weeks, but once again, these levels frame price action and in the same way that they worked in bearish weeks during march, they worked well during this bullish move. Top Performing Setups Bitcoin / IBIT: This was my high-conviction play regardless of broader market action. IBIT hit the extended target of $43.7 and closed the week at $43.9, delivering a robust +5.7% move. If you trade Bitcoin the move is even better for a +9% this week
Is the AI Boom Creating Hidden Risks Beneath the Surface?
I’ve been thinking a lot recently about comments $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Satya made a few years back. If we rewind the clock to mid / late 2022, the biggest thing on software companies & investors’ mind was “when will the optimizations end.” The ZIRP period of 2020-2021 created a buying frenzy - no one was thinking about costs (when it came to cloud / cloud software spend), they were only thinking about growth and capturing more market share (oversimplification, but you get the main point I’m making). At the end of the day, the market was providing cheap and abundant capital (for public and private companies), and investors (for both public and private companies) were rewarding growth (ie placing the most emphasis on growth when determining valuatio
The upside objective today was the all-time highs on $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ . Price formed a bullish M30 FVG support. Textbook bullish SMT → iFVG buy signal FIRED. 175+ points later — NQ at all-time highs. Members BANKED. ✓ $S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ outlook dropping later. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ and NQ are about to tag their 2026 highs. Those are profit taking levels. The bearish SMT with $YM is still intact at ATH. What does that mean? ES/NQ are sweeping the highs while YM is FAILING to confirm them. That's a pullback signature. Short-term pullback se
CFTC:S&P Net Short Positions Surge Suddenly, Signs of Capital "Rotation" Become Evident
On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w
$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ Continue DCA on VOO during good and bad times. Market recovered remarkably and so is VOO. Happy to get some accumulations done when it was weaker the past few weeks