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8 minutes ago
WTI Back Above $90: The Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Is Turning Into the Fed's Case for a Rate Hike
Rising oil prices are no longer just an energy-sector story. They are pushing Treasury yields higher through inflation expectations, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and compressing valuations across the rest of the market—the September 1 selloff in U.S. equities was the result of this entire chain being repriced at once. On Tuesday, September 1, all four major U.S. indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Dow dropped 419.02 points to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.03% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.23% to 2,920. The real driver on the day came from the Middle East. U.S. forces launched a new round of strikes against Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, after two oil tankers had been attacked in the waterway. T
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21 minutes ago
How Do You Trade September Without Letting Fear Take Over?
A student recently asked me: “How do you psychologically take trades in September when it’s historically one of the worst months for the market, especially when you think we could still see a pullback?” The honest answer? It’s difficult. And it gets even harder when you’re public with your analysis and have a community trading alongside you. But there’s one mindset that helps me stay grounded: 🧠 Think in 10–20 Year Timeframes Seasonality matters. September has historically been a difficult month for the market, and I absolutely take that into consideration. But seasonality only matters until it doesn’t. The mistake is allowing a historical average to become a trading rule. I try to look at every decision through a 10–20 year lens rather than letting one month determine what I do today. 🚀 L
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23 minutes ago
$SPY Faces a Rough September, $AMAT, $CRWV and $CIFR Enter Critical Zones
September is starting with some pressure across the market, but I’m not looking at this pullback as a reason to panic. Instead, I’m watching for key support levels, discount zones and potential re-entry opportunities. A few names are getting particularly interesting. 👀 🚨 $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ Is Testing Smart Money Support Again $AMAT is back at the Smart Money Zone. This level matters. If the current bull cycle is going to continue, we need to see buyers step in here and defend the zone. 📈 A strong bounce could keep the broader bullish structure intact. For now, this is a level to watch closely rather than chase. 🔄 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ Is Back on the Radar Walking away from $CRWV turned out to be
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47 minutes ago
Macro Strategy Weekly: VIX Seasonal Spike Incoming，Top Strategy for Choppy Markets
Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem
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38 minutes ago
SPX: Pullback in Play, Key Annual Level Tested
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone. Once the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651
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40 minutes ago
Chip ETF SOXL Fights a Weak Tap, What Comes Next?
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ 📋 Executive Summary 🔑 At a Glance Field Status Trend Zone 🟥 Bearish — Downtrend Risk Level 🟠 Level-3 (−63%) Bullish Zone Entry Probability 🔔 0% within 10 days Cumulative Return −19.6% avoided (Sell Entry $140.30 / Aug 07, 2026) Prediction Volatility ⬆️ High 🎯 Trading Plan Action Price Target Timing 🔴 Sell $110.80 Aug 31 – Sep 01 🟢 Buy $83.50 Sep 09 – Sep 10 🔵 Sell Target To Be Determined Pending [Adaptive Long]: Very High Risk (Downside Appears Substantial/Sustained) - Very Low Reward Potential (Upside Appears Limited/Transitory) => Avoid new positions — stay in cash [Inverse Allocation]: Aggressive tactical entry review on favorable setups ⚡ Key Takeaway The bearish structure that has held S
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56 minutes ago
Dell up 8% overnight, profit triples, pivot?
Dell surged more than 8% in after‑hours trading this morning, with its market capitalization approaching $300 billion and the stock briefly touching $460. On the news front, the company just reported its fiscal 2027 second‑quarter results. Quarterly revenue reached $46.97 billion, up 58% year‑over‑year and setting a new all‑time high, beating market expectations of $44.78 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $7.04, a staggering 203% increase from a year ago and far exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.897. Most notably, Dell significantly raised its full‑year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $192 billion – a $25 billion increase from its previous outlook of approximately $167 billion – representing a 69% year‑over‑year growth rate, well ahead of analysts' average forecast of $1
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10:46
Seems like a Big Battle now Between Macro and the AI Narrative
Seems like a big battle now between macro (10Y, Oil, PCE etc) and the AI narrative which is only trending in one direction: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Forecasted 2028 revenue growth at +70% vs Street estimates of 44%. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ forecasts $1.3T in hyperscaler CapEx spend for 2027. 3. $SHKY CEO: "We expect the shortage (on storage) to persist until the end of 2030." 4. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$: "We see structurally massive demand for NAND until 2030." 5. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ giving $Alphabet(GOOGL)$
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10:44
AMZN is One of the Safer 2x Opportunities in the Market
Tell me how these $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ forecasts don't work out: 1. $530B in AWS revenue in 2030 in line with MS forecasts. -> At 30% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $3.18T business. -> At 25% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $2.65T business. 2. E-Commerce ARR is ~$550B today. -> At 10% CAGR growth we have a $833B revenue business in 2030. -> At a conservative 1x sales that's $833B in value. 3. Digital Ads ha revenue heading towards $80B with 50% operating margins. -> 20x EBIT values the business today in the $800B range. This should be a $1T business by 2030. That's a $4.5T business EXCLUDING: -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes (If An
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10:40
TDG& NVDA: PE Leaves the Rooms for Booming
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ on its +70% revenue growth guidance: “Our demand is much greater than 70%. Our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%.” 2 Transdigm group trading close to its lowest fwd. PE in years $TransDigm(TDG)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis !!
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10:35
QQQ, USO& SPY Enjoy Great Rebound Now
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Inverse head and shoulders still set up here, for now. 2 $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Well, they went with the "massive breakout" option for #Oil. 3 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ vs. $TNX since 2023. With rates back above 4.75%. Which number (1-3) will we look most like? Note: Initially, the market moved higher for at least 6 weeks after this 4.75% threshold was hit. Follow me to learn more about analysis !!
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10:30
.SPX: 3 Distinctive Market Conditions
The last two times the Fed hiked in a midterm September: one crash, one bottom. Round three is in two weeks, here’s how to trade into the event 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 7,631, its lowest level since August 4, after losing the 7,650-7,700 zone it defended for two weeks. Oil is surging on the Strait of Hormuz escalation, the 10-year is pressing 4.8%, and rate markets flipped to pricing a September hike. Jobs Friday, then FOMC mid-month. Three paths from here. Scenario #1: The September Flush Oil and yields don’t let up and the breakdown follows through. $SPX loses 7,600, bounces get sold, and the flush runs to 7,500 (roughly 4% off the highs) where the market finally bottoms out. If the midterm playbook holds, that’s the low o
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10:28
TRADE PLAN for Wednesday
Sharp sell off today in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ after the gap down. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 7620 is a key support level.. if this level fails we can see a sell off to 7580,7550 next. Puts can work under 7620 tomorrow. I'd wait for 7700 for calls. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ if 702 breaks we can see a flush to 693. Puts can work under 702. There's been more escalation in the Iran war and the Treasury yields + Oil are also rising. Lots of headwinds over the next 2 weeks. Risk off for now as long as $SPX stays under 7700 and
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10:27
.SPX: The Next Gap Will be Bridged
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you! 1 The opening low is 7627, lower than the previous lows near 7640. The second part of my prediction is right [break the previous lows within two trading days]. Now, the next step is to fill the GAP at 7600. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 2 THE DAM WILL BE BROKEN--SOON.
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10:21
XLE, RSG, KR, SPCX& MRNA Welcome the Booming Time?
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ bulls still wants more 😋 2 Eight straight green days and $SpaceX(SPCX)$ is suddenly closing in on the IPO aVWAP again 👀 3 $Kroger(KR)$ sitting on the 200-week SMA for just the second time since Covid 👀 4 🚨 Bill Gates is loading up on garbage... and I mean actual garbage. Cascade Investment, Gates' personal investment firm, bought roughly $688.7M of Republic Services $Republic(RSG)$ in August. Republic hauls trash, runs landfills, and recycles waste. One man's trash..
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09:45
NIO Q2: Gross Margin Surprise, Delivery Concerns – Can It Bounce Back in H2?
NIO released its 2026 Q2 results. The company posted quarterly revenue of RMB 32.2 billion, up 69% year‑on‑year but below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 33.36 billion. Q2 vehicle deliveries came in at approximately 107,600 units, a 49% YoY increase, missing the Bloomberg estimate of 111,500 units. Gross margin for Q2 2026 was 18.4%, compared with 10.0% in Q2 2025. Auto business gross margin reached 18.5% in the quarter, up approximately 85% year‑on‑year and above the Bloomberg consensus of 17.64%. NIO’s premium strategy delivered solid results: the NIO brand ranked first in the RMB 350,000+ price segment in China; the ES8 surpassed 140,000 cumulative deliveries in 335 days since launch, and remained a leader in the RMB 400,000+ segment and the large SUV category; the ES9, positioned as a tech‑
TOPbouncee: Gross margin beat is nice, but repeated delivery misses are still the whole story. At 0.6x sales the bad news feels priced in, now it needs an actual delivery inflection.
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03:35
Hynix Stabilizes
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The stock price is currently moving toward the 200–210 center of gravity. You can continue to consider the Sell Call $NVDA 20260911 230.0 CALL$ and Sell Put $NVDA 20260911 200.0 PUT$ strategies. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ Yesterday, EWY had a 20,000-contract Sell Put block trade on the 155 Put $EWY 20261120 155.0 PUT$, which translates to roughly 140 for Hynix $SKHY 20260911 140.0 PUT$. Based on the opening activity, the stock should clo
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09-01 22:08
9/1 Pre-Market Thoughts: The Worst Month Is Here
I. Key Events Rates and Dollar Both Rise, Risk Assets Broadly Decline: U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rebounded again, the dollar index strengthened, and U.S. equities pulled back, with Bitcoin, gold, and Hong Kong stocks all under pressure simultaneously. Geopolitical Disruption Lifts Oil Prices: Two very large crude carriers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher again. However, options flow shows large sell call openings on energy names expiring toward year-end, suggesting producers remain cautious on the upside for oil prices. DELL Earnings (Tuesday After Close): Expected to raise full-year guidance. II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals) VIX$VIX 20270317 47.5 CALL$ Buy Call, strike 47.5,
TOPTitle feels a bit early. That VIX 47.5 call block reads more like fear getting priced before October, so September might dump first then snap back.
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09-01 17:28
Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities
The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are
TOPVIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect
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09-01 18:00
He Says He Is Not Afraid of Custom Chips. Why Pay US$3.5 Billion?
Jensen Huang said on Monday that he is not afraid of custom chips. The same day, Nvidia put US$3.5 billion into MediaTek convertible bonds and brought MediaTek onto its own NVLink. He is not trying to keep custom chips outside the door; he wants them running across Nvidia's network. Reports say the tie-up is meant to get custom data-centre chips deployed faster. Nvidia closed 1.48 per cent higher at US$220.78. On the custom-silicon side, the tape read the opposite way. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ fell another 2.29 per cent to US$211.66, and its gain for the year slipped from 154.91 per cent on Friday to 149.07 per cent. The wound is the same one as last week. Revenue from the US$120 billion arrangement with
TOPI think the answer is clear: what really keeps you "making money" is not just designing the chips, but controlling how the chips are connected, scheduled, and run. Therefore, the most noteworthy aspect of Nvidia's $3.5 billion investment this time is not simply betting on MediaTek, but rather shifting the focus of competition from "who can make a better ASIC" to NVLink, networking, software stacks, and system-level ecosystems. Others can design their own chips, but as long as these chips are ultimately connected to Nvidia's connectivity system, Nvidia will still control the most crucial "toll road" in the AI cluster. This also explains why MRVL's stock price can still fall despite large orders. The market is now not just asking "whether there are orders," but "when will orders become revenue, what is the profit margin, and who in the ecosystem will take the greatest value." Design capabilities alone are no longer enough; what is truly scarce is the platform capabilities that can integrate computing, networking, memory, and software. Therefore, I am more optimistic about system-level platform companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, rather than just looking at a particular custom chip itself. In short: the most valuable aspect of AI in the next stage may not be "who makes the chips," but "who controls the data flow and ecosystem rules between chips." Chips are cars, while networks and platforms are toll roads.