To The Moon

Hedging the Event, Not Predicting It The market is heading into the Fed decision with enough warning signs to make me cautious, but not enough confirmation to justify an outright bearish call. My plan is therefore simple: reduce the cost of being wrong rather than pretend I know what the announcement will bring. The trade I am considering is a small October put debit spread on SPY. This is a planned hedge, not an order or a completed fill. There are several reasons for the caution. The broad market has slipped below an important moving average, technology has produced consecutive weak closes and semiconductors continue to test the same support area. Repeated tests can weaken a level even when price has not broken down decisively. At the same time, the long end of the bond market remains

After Monday’s AI-driven selloff, AMD bounced hard on Tuesday, putting the stock back on my watchlist today. But I’m less interested in the rebound itself and more interested in what it tells us about AI spending expectations. 📈 Why AMD is interesting The broader AI slowdown debate has raised questions about whether hyperscalers will eventually reduce compute spending. AMD’s rebound suggests investors may be treating the recent weakness as a reset in expectations rather than a fundamental break in AI demand. The bigger opportunity is AMD’s position across data-center GPUs, CPUs and AI accelerators. If AI infrastructure spending remains strong, AMD has multiple ways to participate. ⚠️ What could go wrong? The market already expects significant AI growth from AMD. If data-center spending slo

The Senate’s 49–50 procedural vote was a clear setback for crypto regulation, and CRCL fell sharply as investors reassessed the timeline for regulatory clarity.  But I think the more interesting question now is: Can Circle keep growing even if Washington moves slowly? 👀 Circle isn’t standing still. The company recently agreed to acquire Tazapay, expanding its stablecoin-powered cross-border payments infrastructure, while its broader strategy is moving beyond simply issuing USDC.  🟢 Bull case: USDC adoption keeps expanding, payments become a larger business, and Circle builds new revenue streams regardless of legislative timing. 🔴 Risk: The market may have already priced in rapid regulatory progress. If legislation remains stalled, investors could demand a lower valuation while waiting fo

Everyone knows what $100 oil does to airlines. Everyone knows what it does at the petrol pump. Everyone knows what it can do to inflation. But I think Wall Street may be overlooking a much stranger potential casualty. Artificial intelligence. Not because data centres run on crude oil. They don’t. Because the AI boom increasingly runs on something else: CAPITAL. And the price of that capital is moving. ⸻ 🛢️ THE OIL SHOCK DOESN’T HAVE TO TOUCH A DATA CENTRE TO HIT IT The first-order trade is obvious. Oil rises. Energy companies benefit. Transport costs rise. Consumers feel it. Inflation becomes harder to kill. But follow the chain another few steps: OIL ↑ ⬇️ INFLATION PRESSURE ↑ ⬇️ BOND YIELDS / RATE EXPECTATIONS ↑ ⬇️ COST OF CAPITAL ↑ ⬇️ AI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING GETS MORE EXPENSIVE ⬇️ TH

$Soup Holdings(5KI.SI)$ Looks like another day of no sales for James. "I got a lot of money, don't know where to invest"<---Said James🤭 I am pleased to announced to James, I also buy gold bars from UOB. Tmr going to collect my shinning metals. Most importantly, price is lower than $186/g, James avg price. Also forgot to mention my more than half a million portfolio all green green, average 40% gain, and collecting dividends till my hands so soft🤭 Tmr screenshot my gold bars. Song Bo James

🔥 The 25bp hike was the easy part — the path is the real risk. The Fed delivered the expected 25bp move, but the market quickly focused on what comes next. The latest projections point to at least one more hike this year, while Treasury yields pushed toward/above 5%. (Reuters) That makes the “already priced in” argument only partly convincing. Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were right that the September hike itself was well anticipated — but pricing a hike is very different from pricing a higher-for-longer path. (Reuters) 📉 For equities, the pressure point isn’t simply +25bp. It’s the combination of oil >$100 + sticky inflation + rising yields + another potential hike. That raises the discount rate on growth stocks and leaves less room for valuation expansion. 💡 But there’s an imp

OpenAI is reportedly pausing some projects and shifting roughly 25% of production engineering toward safety audits, while Anthropic and Meta are also pushing for slower frontier-model iteration. Yet chip stocks moved higher: 🟢 $AMD +1.65% 🟢 $NVDA +0.82% 🟢 $AVGO +0.07% That creates an interesting disconnect. Maybe the market isn’t betting on how fast AI models improve. It’s betting on how much infrastructure has already been committed. Even if model development slows, data centers still need: ⚡ Computing power 🔌 Networking 💾 Memory 🌐 High-speed optical connectivity And once billions are committed to infrastructure, companies don’t necessarily stop spending simply because engineers are moving more slowly. But there is a risk the market may be overlooking: If AI progress slows for long enough

The 25bp Fed hike was expected. The market knew it was coming. Yet the reaction was surprisingly muted: 📉 $SPY -0.44% 📉 S&P 500 -0.45% ➡️ $QQQ +0.03% 🟢 Gold +1.10% So maybe the headline rate decision wasn’t the real story. The market is looking past today and toward what comes next. If inflation remains persistent and policymakers still see another hike ahead, the question becomes whether today’s prices already reflect that tighter path. At the same time, there’s another side to the equation: 💰 Earnings remain solid 📈 Growth expectations haven’t collapsed 🏦 Major banks remain constructive on the economic outlook That creates a tug-of-war: Higher-for-longer rates vs. resilient corporate earnings. For me, the key signal isn’t today’s 25bp move. It’s whether the market can keep absorbing

Yesterday, memory stocks moved almost like one trade. Today? Not even close. 🟢 $MU +0.39% 🔴 $Hynix -0.46% 🔴 $SNDK -1.36% 🔴 Western Digital ~-4% 🔴 Seagate ~-5% That divergence is more interesting to me than the individual moves. The bull case has been relatively simple: AI demand → tight supply → higher memory prices → stronger earnings → higher valuations. But if that’s the whole story, why are memory names suddenly behaving so differently? One possibility: the market is starting to separate actual demand from expectations about pricing. And Micron could become the key test. 📅 Sept. 30 earnings 📊 New pricing commentary 📦 Orders and demand signals 💰 Margin expectations SanDisk refinancing also adds another wrinkle: when valuations depend heavily on memory prices continuing higher, financing

$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ elephant can fly as well

$TSLA 20260918 335.0 PUT$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   Support / Resistance 📈📉: Support: $357-358, $348-351, $337, $328-330 Resistance: $364, $374, $382.5 Outlook 📝: TSLA had been trading within the range of $354-$364 the past weeks. If TSLA is able to hold $357-358, then we may see short term upside towards $36. If TSLA manage to break and hold $364, we should be able to see more short term upside towards $374. Else, if TSLA rejects at $364, then watch for support back at $357-358. If it breaks below $357-358, then watch for even more short term downside towards support level at $348-$351 again. If TSLA also rejects below $348-351, then watch for $337 support level. Ta

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ In times of instability and volatility, the best investment strategy would be to DCA. I am doing it for SPY.

$Bumitama Agri(P8Z.SI)$ Moving up again! 💪💪💪

$Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$ Ok team, you herd it here first. At the beginning of this week I brought 1 share of this company for around $200usd. That's not really the point of this article, but I'll start here.  For the last 2 years I've been expanding my wheel house to understand resource stocks. Oil and gas have been serious winners so far. Mainly because trump ordered the hit on Iran, not going there, but I saw it coming... well telegraphed.  What I want to discuss is gold and silver stocks, and more importantly AI. so I now understand the difference between an explorer, a miner, a streamer, holding the physical and also trading futures. 2 years! But it is a side hobby to be fair. Another side hobby has been how can AI help me to improve

$Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ Sold my position. Looks like profit taking and a rejection around $6 already. Also, general caution from rising inflation and bond yields. Anyway, gonna enjoy my profit and have a nice weekend this week! [Cool]  [Love you]  

$HOOD 20260925 96.0 PUT$ Limit order filled to sell Hood cash secured put at strike 96 for credit 

$TQQQ 20260925 68.0 PUT$ 9 days left before expiration and market is choppy, so we decided to take this 29% profit. Build gun powder for future opportunities.

$GOOGL 20261016 320.0 PUT$ Still 1 month left before expiration but market is choppy and I have several GOOGL positions. Reducing exposure to reduce concentration n risk. At the same time 54.48% profit for less than a month in the trade is cool.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Hi Tigers, after the recent pullback in semiconductors, I am continuing to collect Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL) gradually. I know SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF and comes with much higher volatility and decay, so I am not treating it as a short-term trade. For me, the recent weakness is creating a better entry point after the sector became overheated. Instead of chasing when sentiment is strong, I prefer to use pullbacks to build my position step by step. My semiconductor thesis has not changed. AI continues to require more GPUs, CPUs, networking chips, memory and advanced semiconductor infrastructure. The growth of AI data centers is also increasing demand for HBM, DRAM, N