Tesla stock has fallen 18.3% this month, with its stock price closing at $330.53 as of Feb 24. On the one hand, investors may worry that the selling pressure would accelerate. On the other hand, they don’t want to miss the opportunity to buy the dip. Let’s dive into the potential sscenarios and related options strategies with Tesla stock.
1. Moderately Bearish
While Tesla’s technicals and sentiment skew bearish on weak sales, a sharp drop below $300 within a month (requiring 9% decline) would need a catalyst. The options market just assigns a 21% probability to this scenario. A bear put spread strategy may be less risky if you are not optimistic about Tesla’s future performance.
Tesla Sales Fall 45% in Europe as Rivals’ EV Registrations Soar
Tesla Inc.’s sales plunged 45% last month across Europe, where rival carmakers saw a surge in electric-vehicle demand.
The Elon Musk-led company registered only 9,945 cars in January, down from 18,161 a year ago, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. EV sales soared 37% for the overall industry, with carmakers posting big gains in Germany and the UK.
Tesla is changing over production lines for by far its most popular vehicle, the Model Y SUV, and contending with its chief executive officer becoming an increasingly polarizing figure in global politics. After emerging as a leading donor to Donald Trump during last year’s US election cycle, Musk set his sights on Europe, backing far-right parties and attacking incumbents.
Tesla registered only 1,277 new cars last month in Germany, its lowest monthly total since July 2021. Sales in France plummeted 63% in its worst showing there since August 2022.
Option Strategy: Bear Put Spread
When to Use: If you expect Tesla to decline but not collapse.
How It Works:
Buy a put option with a higher strike price (e.g., $340).
Sell a put option with a lower strike price (e.g., $310).
Reduces cost compared to buying a single put but caps max gain.
Max Profit: $1,625
Max Loss: -$1,375
2. Moderately Bullish
It’s not all bad news related to Tesla. FSD Progress, expansion of affordable EVs also provide positive catalysts for Tesla stock. A bull call spread strategy may be less risky than buying calls if you are optimistic about Tesla’s future performance.
Tesla Updates Autopilot Software in China
Tesla on Tuesday made a long-awaited update to its autopilot software in China to add a city navigation feature. The U.S. electric vehicle maker said capabilities will include automatic lane-changing depending on speed and route as well as detecting traffic lights at intersections and deciding whether to turn. An in-car camera will also monitor driver attention, it said.
Musk has said that Tesla is seeking regulatory approval from Beijing to fully roll out FSD in the country, but China currently only requires automakers to register any level-two update with the industry ministry.
Under industry standards, both Autopilot and FSD are categorised as level-two autonomous driving technologies, so under Chinese law they require human supervision and intervention when necessary.
Automakers only need to seek regulatory approval for more advanced level-three and above autonomous driving features.
Option Strategy: Bull Call Spread
When to Use: If you expect Tesla to rise modestly.
How It Works:
Buy a call option with a lower strike price (e.g., $320).
Sell a call option with a higher strike price (e.g., $350).
Reduces cost compared to buying a single call but caps maximum profit.
Max Profit: $1,640
Max Loss: -$1,360
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