Will Tesla's 200K Model Y Orders Translate to Strong Sales?

BrianTycangco鄭彥渊

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reports receiving 200K orders for its facelifted Model Y in China, which started production on Feb 18 and deliveries on Feb 26.

While encouraging, it's important to note a "large number" of these orders are for refundable deposits. They don't guarantee that many Model Y sales - cancellations are common in China where brands aggressively compete for consumer attention.

It's also encouraging that weekly insurance registrations for Tesla from Feb 24 to Mar 2 grew 77% week-on-week to 12,700 units. That's about on par with Tesla's weekly domestic sales in 2024.

Given the production lines for both Model 3 and facelifted Model Y are already up and running, and assuming pent-up demand from launch orders of the Model Y, we should see these weekly insurance registration numbers rise to 15k to 20k in about 3 to 4 weeks due to various delivery timelines. Be curious if they don't.

Interesting to note that this article mentions observation by reporters from tech and financial news media firm 36kr. They visited four Tesla branches in Beijing and found "not that many visitors". Perhaps it could just be that buyers are choosing to check out the vehicle and place orders online.

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They don't guarantee that many Model Y sales - cancellations are common in China where brands aggressively compete for consumer attention.</p><p>It's also encouraging that weekly insurance registrations for Tesla from Feb 24 to Mar 2 grew 77% week-on-week to 12,700 units. That's about on par with Tesla's weekly domestic sales in 2024.</p><p>Given the production lines for both Model 3 and facelifted Model Y are already up and running, and assuming pent-up demand from launch orders of the Model Y, we should see these weekly insurance registration numbers rise to 15k to 20k in about 3 to 4 weeks due to various delivery timelines. Be curious if they don't.</p><p>Interesting to note that this article mentions observation by reporters from tech and financial news media firm 36kr. They visited four Tesla branches in Beijing and found \"not that many visitors\". Perhaps it could just be that buyers are choosing to check out the vehicle and place orders online.  </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"Image\" title=\"Image\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2622a15e92a6fbbc983117aa693c5bb\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Image</span></p></body></html>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reports receiving 200K orders for its facelifted Model Y in China, which started production on Feb 18 and deliveries on Feb 26. While encouraging, it's important to note a \"large number\" of these orders are for refundable deposits. They don't guarantee that many Model Y sales - cancellations are common in China where brands aggressively compete for consumer attention. It's also encouraging that weekly insurance registrations for Tesla from Feb 24 to Mar 2 grew 77% week-on-week to 12,700 units. That's about on par with Tesla's weekly domestic sales in 2024. Given the production lines for both Model 3 and facelifted Model Y are already up and running, and assuming pent-up demand from launch orders of the Model Y, we should see these weekly insurance registration numbers rise to 15k to 20k in about 3 to 4 weeks due to various delivery timelines. Be curious if they don't. Interesting to note that this article mentions observation by reporters from tech and financial news media firm 36kr. They visited four Tesla branches in Beijing and found \"not that many visitors\". Perhaps it could just be that buyers are choosing to check out the vehicle and place orders online. 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