BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
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Hot Stocks - SE, DRAG & MAGS

1. $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Sea Limited is enjoying a 15-month uptrend. This company's core international e-commerce biz Shopee focuses on Southeast Asia and South America - largely unaffected by Trump's trade war tariffs. They also have a booming fintech business SeaMoney and a profitable gaming biz Garena Image2. $Roundhill China Dragons ETF(DRAG)$ & $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The crazy thing is that the outperformance of Chinese tech has improved over past few weeks even as they fell victim to Wall Street’s selloff. DRAG now doing 45% better than MAGS since the start of the year. Image3. $Roundhill Magnificent Seven E
Hot Stocks - SE, DRAG & MAGS

Hot EV Stocks - TSLA, XIAOMI & NIO

1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ This could very well be the blessing in disguise for TSLA which is now up 5% after Trump suggests Elon’s departure from DOGE soon. But if you think this means good times are back for the company, think again. It all depends on how fast Elon can show the market how he’s laser focused on returning Tesla to growth and improve profitability. Getting to the top is hard. Staying there is vicious.2. $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ Looks like a convenient excuse to take profits from a stock that gained 70% since the start of the year as of 3/19/25. If we’re going to sell a n EV maker because of unfortunate fatalities, then nobody would have made a fortune in TSLA when it was involved in over 670 fa
Hot EV Stocks - TSLA, XIAOMI & NIO

TSLA - Is it a good sign of healthy demand?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's China sales bounced back almost 200% in March to 78,828 units vs. Feb after last month's production halt due to new Model Y preparations. Year-on-year sales fell 11.5%. Weekly insurance registrations jumped to 20,700 in the week ending March 30. That's about where Tesla needs it to be to be consistent with its large number of preorders/reservations for the new Model Y. Let's see how these new registrations hold up in the coming weeks. If it stays consistently above 20k, it's a good sign of healthy demand even in the face of strong competition from $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ $NIO Inc
TSLA - Is it a good sign of healthy demand?

NVDA not looking too great on the charts

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is not looking too great on the charts. Coincidentally, $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ 's Joe Tsai called out what he saw was an AI bubble forming in the US. Meanwhile, the AI boom is firmly taking root in China where open-source models like DeepSeek are allowing companies to develop at a fraction of the cost that US companies have to contend with.Image
NVDA not looking too great on the charts

Is China’s bull market in danger of ending?

Some are saying China’s bull market is in danger of ending because of risks that stimulus will disappoint. Well, I don’t think so. PBoC has plenty of room to stimulate if the need arises. And I’ve noticed that they are more sensitive to market developments these days than they were 5 to 10 years ago.Foreign Investment are no longer fleeing. They are flowing back into China in record pace. Unfortunately, more than a few “influencers” are trying to stoke fear again among investors in Chinese equities. The more they do this, the more it makes me feel bullish.China’s stimulus is massive and can get a lot bigger. The property market is clearly on the mend. Retail sales just posted improvements in Jan/Feb period with online retail sales +7.3%. Caixin mfg PMI was up to 50.8 in Feb while services
Is China’s bull market in danger of ending?

AI will unleash untold trillions in economic activity and unquantifiable benefits to humanity

The Internet is open source. It unleashed untold trillions in economic activity and unquantifiable benefits to humanity. AI is being open sourced in China.It will likely unleash the same for that country in the coming decades.For those that choose to keep AI closed-source to get the most profit and valuation today, it risks the development of the AI-driven economy down the road.
AI will unleash untold trillions in economic activity and unquantifiable benefits to humanity

China’s markets have transformed from sell-the-rip to buy-the-dip

Not surprised that it would be BofA that would be coming out with nonsense like this. A “meaningful correction due to similarities with the 2015 boom and bust cycle” flies in the face of one of the strongest stimulus measures unleashed by Beijing since the 2008 GFC.Retail sales are picking up with online sales +7.3% in 2M25. Caixin PMIs show expansion both in services and manufacturing. Fixed asset investment growth accelerating. The real estate market is recovering with T1 cities seeing price gains YoY. Not to mention the impact that DeepSeek and other AI models are expected to have on the economy - something being touted for in West with ChatGPT etc. Like I said, you can’t say that AI will be a massive multi-trillion-dollar boon for one country and not have any effect on another. Especia
China’s markets have transformed from sell-the-rip to buy-the-dip

TSLA has some challenges ahead

If $Apple(AAPL)$ 's waning sales in China are any indication of Chinese consumer appetite for US brands, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has some challenges ahead. We'll have weekly NEV insurance figures out tomorrow. If that doesn't pick up substantially from the previous week, it's one sign that actual demand isn't as strong as 200k reservations for Model Y facelift suggested. ImageJP Morgan expects TSLA to report its worst quarterly deliveries in three years:“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly."
TSLA has some challenges ahead

AAPL & TSLA dilemma

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ Apple has an image problem.It wants to project an image as a growth stock - a forward PE ratio of 30X.But it is no longer a growth stock. Its TTM revenue growth over 3 years is 3.9%, while its TTM FCF is flat.It's a cash machine for sure. But does a cash machine deserve to trade at 30X forward PE?Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Over the last 4 years, China’s pure batter EV sales have been rising while enduring the same seasonal dips. (Chart 1)Over the same period, Tesla has hardly grown sales beyond its 80k monthly peak. (Chart 2)This isn’t the performance of a company gaining market share. The opposite in fact is happening.Image
AAPL & TSLA dilemma

Will Tesla's 200K Model Y Orders Translate to Strong Sales?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reports receiving 200K orders for its facelifted Model Y in China, which started production on Feb 18 and deliveries on Feb 26.While encouraging, it's important to note a "large number" of these orders are for refundable deposits. They don't guarantee that many Model Y sales - cancellations are common in China where brands aggressively compete for consumer attention.It's also encouraging that weekly insurance registrations for Tesla from Feb 24 to Mar 2 grew 77% week-on-week to 12,700 units. That's about on par with Tesla's weekly domestic sales in 2024.Given the production lines for both Model 3 and facelifted Model Y are already up and running, and assuming pent-up demand from launch orders of the Model Y, we should see thes
Will Tesla's 200K Model Y Orders Translate to Strong Sales?

TSLA - An almost 50% drawdown in 2.5 months

Dear Mr. Musk,An almost 50% drawdown in 2.5 months just erased close to $800B in wealth for your $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shareholders including yourself. You might want to spend some time away from DOGE to address the concerns of the same investors who believed in you and helped make you wildly successful.Just a thought.I don’t own it. I’m also very relaxed. It’s just crazy how a stock of any major company - let alone a Mag7 stock - crash by nearly half in 2.5 months and not a peep from its CEO. 😅Image
TSLA - An almost 50% drawdown in 2.5 months

HSTECH brushes off another down day

Hang Seng Tech Index $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ brushes off another down day on Wall Street to tack on another 4.5% gain. Now up 41% from January lows. 🔥🔥🔥 $KWEB $KTECThe fact this bull market has barely paused even in light of Trump’s push for strong investment curbs against China’s tech sector is indicative of the real sentiment change in the market. Even locals (Chinese) keep piling i to the market because they know things are getting better.Premiums to ADRs: $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ +5.1% $JD-SW(09618)$ $JD.com(JD)$ +7.9% $BIDU-SW(09888
HSTECH brushes off another down day

Expect more companies to follow Apple's lead

This example of $Apple(AAPL)$ now committing hundreds of billions in US investments is very telling of the issues that plague US-China relations. Politicians love to tell us China is to blame for stealing jobs especially those in the rustbelt area. But they fail to call out the same US companies that benefitted immensely from their business with China but never had a long-term plan to elevate the productive capacity of their home market.US corporations, for decades, have benefitted from outsourcing production to countries like China. They are driven by a desire to increase profitability, which they cannot be blamed for doing on behalf of shareholders and Wall Street. But it's also important for these same companies - with market caps in the trilli
Expect more companies to follow Apple's lead

BYD Company’s monthly chart

BYD Company’s monthly chart. It was, at one point, owner of 24.59% of all voting H-shares of $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ .They already trimmed that to just 4.94% by July 2024 after selling 1.4m shares @247 per share. Stock last traded at 392 per share. $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ Image $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ may look like it’s had a helluva run from $27 to $37. But remember where it came from while keeping in mind what’s going on in China:✅Structural shift in economy✅DeepSeek AI revolution ✅Consumption stimulus✅Valuation discount vs $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Image
BYD Company’s monthly chart

DeepSeek turned the global industry on its head

AI is like the Internet. If you make it exclusive and expensive, you won’t get mass adoption and all the good things that come with it. DeepSeek turned the global industry on its head.It’s now being adopted on a mass scale in China. And it will open up new industries we’ve never before imagined possible. That’s a big reason why you’re seeing the Hang Seng Tech Index $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ constantly rising. Structural change is going to power China’s economy to new heights.Sorry, Gordon and Kyle, there’s still no collapse. $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares MSCI China All Share
DeepSeek turned the global industry on its head

What a way to end the week in HK! 🔥

What a way to end the week! 🔥Hang Seng Tech Index $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ closes up 6.5%... in one day! $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $KraneShares Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(KTEC)$ $Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares(CWEB)$ Alibaba's $BABA-W(09988)$ superb 3Q results yesterday carried this market for sure. It wasn't that they were doing so well in the quarter. But it was that their Cloud Intelligence business is finally breaking out and, with the arrival and propagation of DeepSeek, is going to be powering the company's growth going forward. Tons of in
What a way to end the week in HK! 🔥

HSTECH booms 4.7% to a 3yr high

At the halftime break, Hang Seng Tech Index $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ booms 4.7% to a 3yr high. Surge driven by $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ ’s strong 3Q results showing better growth in cloud biz, which will only get stronger as DeepSeek sends AI cloud service demand soaring. $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACF)$ & $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ both hitting new ATH on stimulus expectations. Most counters trading at slight premiums to ADRs.
HSTECH booms 4.7% to a 3yr high

AI Disruption: The Rise of DeepSeek and China’s Tech Awakening

You have stocks like… $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ All trading at 30X to 600X PE because AI is transformative and will open up trillions in new opportunities. Then DeepSeek comes out at a fraction of OpenAI cost followed by Qwen beating DeepSeek. Suddenly, investors realize that companies like… $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ … and almost the entire CN tech industry is trading an average of mid-teens PE. $KraneShares CSI
AI Disruption: The Rise of DeepSeek and China’s Tech Awakening

AAPL+BABA - a potential game changer

$Apple(AAPL)$ ’s decision to enter into a partnership with $Alibaba(BABA)$ to use the latter’s AI model Qwen for its iPhones in China is a potential game changer for the US company in its key market.ImageApple will finally be able to begin offering its AI features and functionalities to Chinese consumers, giving it a new driver for sales, which have stalled in China in recent months.Alibaba is a best-fit partner for Apple given the former’s leading position in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital payments industries. Its Qwen AI model has been found to match the performance of DeepSeek and ChatGPT, and Alibaba has been lowering the price of using its model for developers by up to 97% to encourage its
AAPL+BABA - a potential game changer

The current shift in sentiment towards Chinese equities especially in tech

This is such an important development for global investors to consider. The current shift in sentiment towards Chinese equities especially in tech isn’t merely being driven by depressed valuations that end up petering out from strong profit taking and cut-loss trades. This is also being driven by a growing realization that China is no longer behind the West in AI advancement. And given the massive investments companies like $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ are throwing at AI, it’s hard not to think the industry
The current shift in sentiment towards Chinese equities especially in tech

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