When people ask why China’s stock market seems to go nowhere, look beyond the headline index. The Shanghai Composite has been around since 1991, surviving multiple boom-and-bust cycles along the way. Today’s correction, however, is concentrated in a much smaller corner of the market: the STAR Board. 📉 The STAR Board Pullback The STAR 50 Index has fallen roughly 40% from its highs. That follows a rally of about 260% in less than two years. It now trades at roughly 43x forward earnings for 2027, implying expectations for substantial earnings growth. 📊 Zoom Out to the Bigger Picture The STAR Board represents only a portion of China’s overall equity market. Meanwhile, the broader market is trading at around 10x earnings, according to the estimates cited here. That valuation gap helps explain w

Looking at these two graphic images, I can’t help but think of the tale of “The Tortoise and The Hare” when it comes to the race between China and the US to dominate AI. The US is still ahead, helped by its strong compute capabilities (ie access to all the chips it needs) and near-limitless access to capital. But Chinese models have been constantly tugging at their heels using a fraction of the spending. Growing worries about the ability of today’s AI capex to generate meaningful returns might result in delays in US models that allow their Chinese peers to overtake them in the final innings of the game. #OpenAI #Anthropic #Kimi #Qwen4 $Alibaba(BABA)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$

YTD performance tells a striking story for AI hyperscalers $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ AI capex is putting pressure on all four companies: 💸 Free cash flow has deteriorated across the board. 📉 In the most recent quarter, all except $META posted negative FCF. 🏦 $BABA and $GOOGL have issued shares to support capex, while $AMZN and $META have turned to debt. Yet Alibaba stands out: it retains the healthiest balance sheet of the group, raised the least fresh capital, and funded most of its AI spending internally. Still, $BABA has lagged its US peers by at least 37% YTD. It

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ is one of the strongest fintech, e-commerce, and gaming businesses out there. ✅ All major segments adjusted EBITDA-profitable ✅ Generating billions in free cash flow 📉 Yet the stock has plunged 40% in less than 3 months. Meanwhile, companies burning cash and piling on debt to fund the AI infrastructure boom are trading near all-time highs. Profitable businesses get punished. Cash-burning AI plays get rewarded. Markets can stay irrational longer than investors expect, but this divergence is hard to ignore. 🐯 Fundamentals matter. The question is when the market will care again.

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ is a perfect example of how markets can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent. Even after the brutal 85% drawdown in 2021, Sea Limited went through at least 6 more drawdowns of 20%+, including 3 that exceeded 50%. That kind of volatility can test even the most aggressive risk management strategy. 📉 And despite all of that, $SE is still down 74% from its peak. But look at what happened to the business: 💰 Revenue grew roughly 5X from 2020 to 2025 📈 EBITDA went from deeply negative to $2.2B 🌏 Sea remains one of Asia’s major e-commerce and fintech growth stories The stock has delivered a brutal ride. The business has delivered a very different trajectory. That gap between business progress and stock-price behavior is what mak

This earnings season is proving that headline beats alone are no longer enough. While $INTC surged as short covering amplified a surprisingly strong report, $STM showed how quickly investors punish AI-related companies that fail to exceed expectations or deliver a compelling outlook. 1. $Intel(INTC)$ That HUGE move up post ER on INTC was likely short covering given the massive sell volume during the final minutes of normal trading. Some placed huge bets against it given the terrible performance of $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ . Short covering should not be allowed after hours or during premarket. But also, Jim Cramer should be put on a 2 month quiet pe

Over the past five years, China's NEV sales went from 1.3m units (2020) to 16.5m units (2025). That's a 66% CAGR, which is unheard of in the modern history of the automotive industry. NEV penetration by the end of 2025 reached 52.3% - more than half of all new cars sold in China are battery-powered or assisted (PHEV). Growth like this cannot be sustained without going through some period of correction or consolidation, especially when subsidies expire, raising the cost for consumers. That's what we're seeing at the start of 2026. $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ deliveries are down 30% in January. $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ is off 34%, $Li Auto(LI)$ fell 7.5%,