Hey Tiger friends! I’ve been diving deep into Hims & Hers Health Inc. ($Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ ) lately, and wow, there’s a lot to unpack. I was the original writer who identified the potential short squeeze, and it indeed went parabolic, rising from over 40 to 72+ within a week.
From stock price swings to revenue growth, customer behavior, and even a new acquisition, this telehealth company is making waves. Here’s my take on what’s happening and what it could mean for the future. Let’s break it down!
Stock Price: A Wild ride
In the past three weeks, HIMS stock has taken a major dive, falling from approximately $72.98 to $31.01, a sharp 57.5% drop. Why the steep decline? It’s likely due to the FDA’s February 2025 decision to resolve the semaglutide shortage, which directly affects Hims’ ability to sell its popular compounded weight-loss medications.
Revenue: Strong Growth, But What’s Next?
Hims crushed it in 2024 with $1.24 billion in revenue, up 56.7% from the previous year. Weight-loss drugs (like their compounded semaglutide) made up about 20% of that—around $248 million! For 2025, they’re projecting over $750 million from weight-loss alone, but there’s a twist: they’re shifting from compounded to personalized semaglutide. Will customers follow?
Customer Switch: Compounded to Personalized Semaglutide
Hims used to offer a mass-produced version of semaglutide (the same stuff in Ozempic/Wegovy) for just $199/month—way cheaper than the $1,000+ branded versions. But now, with the FDA saying the shortage is over, they can’t mass-produce it anymore. Instead, they’re pivoting to personalized semaglutide under a different rule (503A), which lets them customize doses for individual patients.
Will customers switch? I think 60-70% will, especially since it’s still affordable (starting at $99/month for some plans) and Hims makes it easy with their telehealth platform. But there’s a catch: the FDA hasn’t fully defined what “personalized” means, and experts say minor tweaks might not cut it. Plus, Novo Nordisk (the maker of Ozempic) is suing compounders, which could mess things up for Hims.
Regulatory & Legal Drama
Here’s where it gets tricky. The FDA’s rules on what counts as “personalized” are fuzzy, and former FDA officials are skeptical that small changes (like dose tweaks) are enough to qualify. On top of that, Novo Nordisk is aggressively suing companies that sell compounded versions of their drugs. This could put Hims in a tough spot, especially if regulators crack down or lawsuits pile up. It’s a big question mark for their weight-loss biz.
Big News: Hims Acquires Trybe Labs!
Now for some good news! Hims just bought Trybe Labs, an at-home lab testing facility. This is a game-changer. Customers can now do blood tests at home (no needles, just a lancet!) to check hormone levels, cholesterol, cardiac risk, and more. Providers can use this data to create truly personalized treatment plans, including for semaglutide. This could boost customer loyalty and help Hims expand into new areas like testosterone and menopause support. Plus, it’s feeding their AI tools for even better care.
My Take: Challenges Ahead, But Innovation Shines
Hims is at a crossroads. The stock drop and regulatory uncertainty are real concerns, but their pivot to personalized care and the Trybe Labs acquisition show they’re not backing down. If they can navigate the legal maze and keep customers on board with personalized semaglutide, they could come out stronger. The at-home testing is a brilliant move—it’s convenient, data-driven, and perfect for their telehealth model.
Bottom line: Hims has risks, but their innovation and growth potential are hard to ignore. I’m keeping a close eye on this one!
What do you think? Would you stick with Hims for personalized semaglutide, or switch to branded options? And how do you feel about at-home blood tests? Let’s chat in the comments!
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