Is this recovery or decay? Market Outlook of S&P500 - 21Apr25

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 21Apr25

Observations:

• The MACD indicator has completed the bottom cross-over that suggests an uptrend.

• Moving Averages (MA). The MA50 line has started a downtrend, while the MA200 line is on an uptrend. This implies a downtrend in the mid-term and a bullish trend in the long term. A death cross has surfaced when the MA50 line cuts the MA200 line from above. A death cross can be seen as a bearish indicator.

Death Cross Definition: How and When It Happens

• Candle. The last candle is below the MA50 and MA200 lines, implying a bearish outlook for the medium and long term.

• The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a downtrend.

• Chaikin’s Monetary Flow (CMF) is in the “uptrend zone” (above the 0 line). This implies more buying than selling.

• Let us monitor the magnitude of the rise and fall alongside the volume.

Using the daily interval, the technical indicators and moving averages point to a rating of “Strong Sell”. There are 3 indicators with a “Buy” rating and 16 with a “Sell” rating.

Let us look at candlestick patterns.

There is a good mix of bullish and bearish candlestick patterns.

Given the above indicators and candlestick patterns, the S&P 500 points to a “bearish” outlook with more bearish indicators.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$