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06-29

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ ๐Ÿค–โšก๐ŸŽฏMy Rule of 40 Wake-Up, Nvidiaโ€™s Elite Profit Engine๐ŸŽฏโšก๐Ÿค–

In late May 2025, Nvidia didnโ€™t just break out, it crystallised the kind of moment that defines market cycles! At $130, everything aligned: breakout structure, institutional flow, and the strongest Rule of 40 score Iโ€™ve seen this decade. I recognised it, tracked it, but didnโ€™t act on Tiger Trading. That divergence between insight and execution is what Iโ€™m refining in H2.

๐Ÿ“ฐ Fundamental Firepower

Q1 FY2026 revenue reached $44.1B, up 69% year over year. Data-centre sales climbed to $39.1B, a 73% jump, proving AI inference is already profit, not promise. Gross margin hit 78%, net margin stood at 51.69%, and free cash flow continues compounding faster than capital expenditure can chase.

$NVDA now trades near $157.75, with a market cap above $3T. Despite tightened export controls, demand remains price inelastic thanks to global AI build-outs from governments and hyperscalers alike.

๐Ÿ“ Rule of 40, Reinvented

Growth investors lean on the Rule of 40, which adds revenue growth to profit margin. Anything above 40 signals rare operational balance. Nvidia delivers a staggering 120.89

โ€ข Profit Margin: 51.69%

โ€ข Revenue Growth (YoY): 69.20%

Thatโ€™s not just strong, itโ€™s elite! When a business scales this profitably, the Rule of 40 becomes more than a metric. It becomes a signal of long-term competitive advantage.

โ€œWe believe this is the beginning of a new industrial revolution.โ€ ~ Jensen Huang

๐Ÿ“Š Tape Action I Ignored

โ€ข Rising wedge resolved upward at $130 with volume well above the 50-day average

โ€ข Gamma pivot at $144 triggered a second-leg squeeze through $153.56 and $157

โ€ข More than 5.2M options contracts traded in early June, with call volume outpacing puts 3:1

โ€ข MACD reset on the 4H chart pointed to reacceleration and I didnโ€™t act

๐Ÿง  My Internal Debate

I waited for a clean pullback to the 8-day EMA. That pullback never came. Instead, the headlines stacked

   โ€ข   Blackwell pre-orders

   โ€ข   Micronโ€™s HBM bottleneck warnings

   โ€ข   AI infrastructure deals from the UAE, India, and Saudi Arabia

Price confirmed what I already believed. But my hesitation turned conviction into hindsight.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Technical Lens for H2

โ€ข Support at $144 along the rising wedge trendline

โ€ข Breakout confirmation at $154.63 with expanding volume

โ€ข MACD trending back to baseline, preparing for the next leg

โ€ข Bull flag intact on the daily, signaling consolidation not weakness

๐ŸŽฏ My H2 Trading Plan

โ€ข Rebuild position above $154.63 with tight risk anchored to $144

โ€ข Scale through $160, $174, and $180 using options sweep flow and OI clusters

โ€ข Hedge only if weekly close loses $144 and volume confirms distribution

๐Ÿ’ก The Leveraged Strategy I Couldโ€™ve Played

I also passed on the SOXL opportunity and that deserves its own breakdown. With around 25% exposure to $NVDA, SOXL closely tracks the NYSE Semiconductor Index. Since January 2023, $NVDA surged 875%, yet SOXL was down -50.63% YTD as of June 2025. That performance gap reflects the inherent volatility decay in 3ร— leveraged ETFs.

On 18Jun25, geopolitical tensions, oil price spikes, and AI optimism around U.S.โ€“China trade lifted tech sentiment. Amazon ($AMZN) gained 6.75% over five days, while energy led the S&P. Yet mixed signals from renewed tariff threats introduced sudden volatility that rattled leveraged vehicles like SOXL.

The smarter approach would have been to pair SOXL with its inverse counterpart, $SOXS. SOXS delivers three times the inverse daily performance of the same index, providing a powerful hedging tool. In volatile conditions, dynamically switching between SOXL and SOXS allows traders to manage exposure in both rising and falling markets. However, the daily rebalancing effect introduces risk, so this approach works best for tactical swings, not long-term holds.

๐Ÿ”ฎ Catalysts Still Ahead

โ€ข August earnings with potential for a guidance upgrade if NVLink Fusion ships on time

โ€ข Passive inflows from AI-heavy ETFs like $BOTZ, $IRBO, and $QYLD

โ€ข Sovereign AI demand from energy-surplus nations continuing to accelerate

โ€ข Cooling and power delivery constraints, with $VRT and $ETN key to watch for lead-lag signals

๐Ÿ’Ž Contrarian Insight

While most focus on price targets, Iโ€™m tracking enterprise software attach rates on DGX Cloud. Wall Street models those in low single digits. A move to just 5โ€“10% penetration adds billions in high-margin recurring revenue with no material capex burden. Thatโ€™s the real lever for sustained multiple expansion.

๐Ÿง  Final Reflection

Nvidia isnโ€™t just the most important stock of 2025. It is the infrastructure layer of global AI transformation. The Rule of 40 score above 120% isnโ€™t just a statistic. Itโ€™s a warning to never underestimate what exponential growth looks like when paired with operational excellence.

I missed the add at $130 on Tiger Trading and that miss still echoes. But Iโ€™m watching, planning, and this time Iโ€™m ready.

๐Ÿ“ข Donโ€™t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ“ˆ Iโ€™m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letโ€™s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! ๐Ÿ€

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerClub @TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion 

Midyear Event: Summarize Your H1 In One Word
Today marks the last trading day of the first half of the year โ€” it's time to reflect on your investment performance over the past six months! What trades did you get right and make a profit on? What mistakes did you make that require reflection? Or were there trades where you made the right decisions but the outcome still wasnโ€™t ideal? Itโ€™s important to properly attribute the results of your trades in order to go further on your investment journey!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Hen Solo
    06-29
    Hen Solo
    โœจโญ๏ธ๐Ÿ’ซ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐ŸงฉYour call-out on DGX Cloud attach rates hit home. If software penetration even grazes 10%, the valuation math for $NVDA changes fast. Thanks for the heads-up!
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ… ๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      I appreciate your support and Iโ€™m glad you enjoyed the article ๐ŸŒŸโญ๏ธโœจ
    • Barcode:ย 
      Thanks for reading HS โœจโญ๏ธ๐ŸŒŸ
  • Tui Jude
    06-29
    Tui Jude
    ๐Ÿ’•๐ŸŒŸโญ๏ธ๐Ÿช„โœจThat breakdown on pairing $SOXL with $SOXS gave me a new way to navigate the chop. Watching that $154.63 trigger on $NVDA with fresh eyes now.
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ… ๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      Iโ€™m glad you enjoyed the article ๐Ÿ’ซ
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿคฉ thanks for reading TJ ๐Ÿคฉ๐ŸŒŸ
  • Queengirlypops
    06-29
    Queengirlypops
    ๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ’€๐Ÿคฏ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จDGX Cloud attach rates?? Thatโ€™s the alpha no oneโ€™s talking about. If $NVDA scales that up, itโ€™s game over for every other AI name. Love how you tied it all back to execution too BC
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ… ๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      I hope youโ€™re having a lovely relaxing Sunday ๐Ÿซถ๐Ÿ€
    • Barcode:ย 
      I appreciate your insight and kind words ๐Ÿฉต๐Ÿ€
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ thanks for reading Q
  • Cool Cat Winston
    06-29
    Cool Cat Winston
    ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿš€I love how you framed the Rule of 40. A 120.89 score on $NVDA is wild. Makes perfect sense why the market treated that $130 level like rocket fuel.
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐Ÿ… ๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…Ÿ๐Ÿ…จ โ“‰โ“กโ“โ““โ“˜โ“โ“– ๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…๐Ÿ…“! ๐Ÿ…’๐Ÿ…—๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…”๐Ÿ…ก๐Ÿ…ข ๐Ÿ…‘๐Ÿ…’ ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€๐ŸŸ 
    • Barcode:ย 
      Iโ€™m really glad you enjoyed the article CCW ๐Ÿ’ซ
    • Barcode:ย 
      ๐ŸŒŸ thanks for reading CCW ๐ŸŒŸ
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