$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Iβm stepping into this week with conviction because weβre entering a rare alignment. Liquidity is expanding as central banks pivot toward easing, cross-asset flows are rotating into risk, macro data is softening just enough to keep policy accommodative, earnings density across software and semis is the highest of the quarter, sector rotation is accelerating into value and cyclicals, metals continue to rally on sovereign demand and structural supply deficits, and December seasonality is flashing green. When the tape sets up like this, I donβt sit back. I position early.
π Market Recap
Iβm entering December off a historic reversal. $SPX flipped from minus 4.7% on 21Nov25 to plus 0.1% by 28Nov25 which marked the biggest red to green monthly reversal ever seen in November. All three major indices delivered five straight green sessions. $DJI had its best week since June, and $SPX and $IXIC posted their strongest since May. $VIX closed near a 30-day low which tells me volatility sellers have regained control and skew is flattening as dealer gamma builds. Breadth was textbook bullish with NYSE showing 2,774 advancers vs 1,238 decliners and Nasdaq printing 7,450 advancers vs 3,257 decliners. Up-volume outpaced down-volume more than two to one. April 9 remains a key reminder of how violently liquidity can swing as it was the second-best day in Nasdaq 100 history.
π Macro Drivers
This week is one of the densest macro clusters of Q4.
β’ Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7 and Powell speaking at 8pm EST. Iβm expecting a cautiously dovish tone anchored in labour softness.
β’ Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls at 42K, ISM Services PMI at 52.4, with new orders improving.
β’ Thursday: Jobless claims at 216K. Credit conditions remain steady.
β’ Friday: Core PCE at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, Michigan sentiment at 51 which reinforces a muted consumer but also supportive policy conditions.
Factory orders rose 1.4%. Export and import prices increased 0.3%. API crude fell by 1.9M barrels while EIA inventories rose 2.774M which usually precedes energy volatility. Bond curves steepened marginally which aligns with improving fiscal tone. Powell and Bowman speeches remain my key volatility triggers.
π Technical Setup
$SPX is trading near $6,849 on the 4H chart.
Iβm treating $6,780 as my short-term defence, $6,720 as my structural anchor, and $6,640 as my invalidation zone. A clean drive through $6,880 shifts momentum. $6,920 is the breakout trigger. If buyers absorb that level, Iβm projecting $6,985 then $7,080 as volatility expands.
Keltner and Bollinger positioning support continuation provided breadth stays firm.
π‘ Breadth and Flow
Breadth is one of the strongest signals in this tape. NYSE printed 237 new highs vs 27 new lows. Nasdaq printed 690 new highs vs 76 new lows. ETF inflows rose 15% week over week. Options flow is rotating from downside hedges to measured call demand across $SPY and $QQQ. Dark pool sweeps leaned 60% bullish across financials and industrials. Vanna flows remain supportive of an upward grind.
ποΈ Catalyst Calendar
Monday: $MDB earnings. Volatility watches on $CIFR and $BMNR. Overbought: $HAE, $EXAS, $QNCX. Oversold: $NTNX, $NPIFF, $FISV. IPO quiet periods end for BETA, BLLN, AERO, EVMN. Lock-up expiries for $CRCL, $OMDA, $ZSPC. Macau gross gaming revenue, Class 8 truck orders, firearm background check data, and broker DARTs hit. Conferences include Goldman Sachs Industrials, Citi Healthcare, Benchmark Discovery, Barclays Eat Sleep Play Shop, and UBS Global Tech.
All week: $AMZN AWS re:Invent runs from 1 to 5 December with deep sessions on agentic AI, autonomous systems, ML infrastructure, robotics, and cloud scaling. Capex read-throughs matter for $NVDA, $AMD, $MSFT, and hyperscaler spend.
Tuesday: $CRWD, $MRVL, $PSTG, $GTLB, $AEO, $BOX, $OKTA earnings. $CRM Cyber Monday results. $MNST investor meeting. $VALE annual forum. $NVDA NeurIPS demos on robotics, generative AI, simulation, and applied LLMs.
Wednesday: $CRM, $RY, $SNOW, $DLTR, $FIVE, $GWRE, $M report. $AI and $TLYS show double-digit implied moves. DealBook hosts Anthropic, $COIN, $GM, Paramount Skydance, $BLK, $PLTR, Under Armour, Governor Newsom, and Treasury Secretary Bessent.
Thursday: $TD, $KR, $HPE, $ULTA, $DG, $RBRK, $IOT earnings. Rio Tinto Capital Markets Day, IMAX Investor Day, Denali Therapeutics event.
Friday: $VSCO earnings. $GDEN go-shop ends. $NOW votes on its 5-for-1 split. UN FAO food price index releases.
π Earnings Week Outlook
Iβm treating this as one of the most important software clusters of Q4.
β’ $MDB: Tracking Atlas growth, cloud consumption, and margin discipline. Analysts eye ~25% YoY revenue.
β’ $CRM: Watching multi-cloud traction, deal cycles, margin recovery, and FY guide elasticity.
β’ $SNOW: Monitoring AI workloads, data sharing growth, and hyperscaler overlap. IV ~55% implies roughly a 9% move.
β’ $GTLB: Tracking AI-driven DevOps adoption and cloud margin signals.
High-impact flows also include $CRWD, $MRVL, $CRDO. I expect material IV crush in $CRWD and $SNOW. $MRVL offers the cleanest read on AI adjacent semis and infrastructure demand.
β‘ EV Delivery Data
EV delivery prints hit early this week for:
β’ $NIO
β’ $XPEV
β’ $LI
β’ $BYDDF
β’ $ZK
Upside surprises often lift sentiment across $TSLA, $LCID, $RIVN even if cross-company comparability is limited.
π« Firearm Background Checks
FBI NICS data for October drops this week. Itβs a direct proxy for US firearm demand. Strong prints can move $SWBI and $RGR quickly and often with short-term sentiment overshoots.
π Rotation and Sector Dynamics
November punished overcrowded trades.
$SMCI minus 36%, $AXON minus 27%, $ORCL minus 24%, $DASH minus 23%, $TTD minus 22%.
New leadership emerged:
$ALB plus 29.6%, $LLY plus 26.5%, $SOLV plus 24.1%, $MRK plus 22.4%, $EXPD plus 21%.
MS Wealth described this as a rodeo-style bull market where value, nuclear, defence, and rare earths outperform while tech keeps growth but loses pricing power. Smart money rotates before retail sees it.
βοΈ Metals and Commodities
Silver surged to $55.67 per ounce after the CME outage pause and is up 90% in 2025. Itβs tracking its strongest year since 1979. Gold is up 60% which still pales compared to silverβs industrial demand and tightening supply chain. Gold to silver ratio compression reinforces structural bid. BofAβs triple momentum framework ranks gold, nuclear, defence, and rare earths above all global sectors. Iβm aligning with that rotation.
π§ Trader Psychology and Misallocation
Most traders will anchor on mega-cap AI earnings all week. Thatβs not where the edge sits. The edge sits in metals, value, defensive growth, industrials, and real assets where liquidity is quietly rotating. Breadth continues to expand which signals continuation rather than exhaustion. Sentiment indicators rising from 52 to 65 support that.
β οΈ Risk Management
My invalidation level is $SPX 6,640. If we lose $6,720, I cut risk. If $VIX moves above 19 or Powell signals hawkish asymmetry, I reduce exposure. If cloud earnings materially lower guidance, I trim positions into strength.
π§ Trade Structure
Iβm holding core $SPX exposure with trims above $6,920. I prefer debit call spreads on $CRWD to manage IV. Iβm scaling into metals instead of chasing vertical moves. $TSLA at $430.17 remains on my screen because its post-holiday behaviour is historically muted but structurally constructive.
π Watchlist
Software: $CRWD, $SNOW, $MDB, $CRM, $GTLB
Rotation leaders: $ALB, $LLY, $SOLV, $MRK
EV and China autos: $NIO, $XPEV, $LI, $BYDDF, $ZK
Retail and discretionary: $DLTR, $FIVE, $ULTA, $M
Semis and AI infrastructure: $MRVL, $CRDO
Metals: Silver, Gold, Rare Earths
Benchmarks: $SPX 6,780, 6,720, 6,640, 6,880, 6,920, 6,985, 7,080
πβ‘οΈ Fun fact. April 9 this year ranked as the second strongest trading day in NASDAQ 100 history, a reminder of how fast liquidity, momentum, and macro alignment can ignite when everything snaps into place.
𧩠Conclusion
December historically delivers a 1.2% average gain with a 70% probability of finishing higher. With macro stability, broadening liquidity, rising earnings density, expanding breadth, and structural rotation into real assets, Iβm treating this as one of the highest-conviction trading weeks of the quarter. This is where disciplined positioning compounds.
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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC πππππ
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