HOLIDAYS DISTORTING JOBLESS CL

HOLIDAYS DISTORTING JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA

Citi economists warn that holiday periods are causing unusually large distortions in the seasonal adjustments for jobless claims this year.

Key data from Christmas week:

🔸 Initial claims fell to 199,000 (from 215,000 the prior week)

🔸 This was much lower than the expected 220,000

A more reliable picture of the labor market may not emerge until mid-January.That said, the low level of claims still points to very few layoffs.

Citi's forecasts for the upcoming December jobs report (due next week):

🔸 Nonfarm payrolls: +75,000

🔸 Unemployment rate: rising to 4.7%

(mainly due to higher labor force participation)

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