Lanceljx
02-12 19:38


1️⃣ Cloudflare


+33.6% growth, FCF margin 16.2%, operating leverage improving. The market rewarded quality growth plus AI narrative exposure. This was a clean beat with expanding profitability. Hence the sharp +17% reaction.


2️⃣ Cisco


Raised revenue guidance, but margins guided down to 65.5%. In this tape, margin compression signals pricing pressure or cost creep. Investors care more about forward profitability than headline revenue. Hence the -7% move.


3️⃣ AppLovin: “Beat but Dip”


Revenue +66%, net income +84%, EBITDA +82% is objectively strong. The issue is valuation and narrative risk.


If “Clawdbot” is perceived as: • lowering SaaS switching costs

• compressing software pricing power

• automating ad optimisation


then multiples contract even if earnings rise. High-beta, high-multiple names get repriced first.



---


Is Clawdbot a SaaS valuation killer?


Not yet fundamentally, but sentiment-wise, yes.


Markets are rotating toward: • infrastructure cash flow

• AI compute enablers

• durable margin profiles


and away from: • pure multiple expansion stories

• crowded AI app-layer trades


For AppLovin, the question is durability of ad algorithm advantage. If margins sustain above 40%+ EBITDA and growth stays >30%, dips likely get bought. If growth decelerates, valuation compresses fast.


In this environment, earnings strength is necessary but no longer sufficient. Durability now matters more than velocity.

AppLovin Beats But Dips: Is Clawdbot the New SaaS Valuation Killer?
Cloudflare reported Q4 revenue of $614.5M (+33.6% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.28, sending shares +17% after hours. Non-GAAP net income jumped to $106.8M, while free cash flow nearly doubled to $99.4M (16.2% margin). Cisco raised its full-year revenue guidance, but projected weaker Q3 gross margins, down to as low as 65.5%. Shares fell more than 7% after hours. AppLovin reported Q4 revenue of $1.658 billion, up 66% YoY, with net income rising 84% to $1.102 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 82% year over year.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment