Lanceljx
19:40


Why the +10% move matters


This is not a random bounce. It reflects capital rotating back into the AI memory bottleneck trade.


HBM is now structurally tight. If Micron’s HBM4 ramp accelerates meaningfully into 2026, ASP strength plus mix shift could drive:


• higher gross margins

• sustained pricing power

• multi-year visibility


Memory is no longer purely cyclical. It is partially strategic infrastructure.



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Is $450 “easy”?


That depends on three variables:


1️⃣ HBM4 execution

If Micron secures incremental AI GPU share and ramps without yield issues, earnings revisions will follow quickly.


2️⃣ Supply discipline

If competitors avoid overbuilding, margins hold. If supply floods in 2027, multiples compress.


3️⃣ Valuation expansion

Memory typically trades mid-cycle multiples. To justify $450, the market must treat HBM as structural, not cyclical.



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What about SanDisk?


SNDK benefits from enterprise SSD and AI data centre storage growth. However, NAND remains more cyclical than HBM. Its rally is more beta-driven.



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Bottom line


$450 is achievable if HBM remains structurally undersupplied into 2026 and margins expand sustainably.


If this becomes another memory super-cycle peak, it will not be easy.


The key question is whether AI demand has permanently changed memory’s earnings profile.

Micron, SNDK +10%! Morgan Stanley $450 Target Easy to Hit?
Micron (MU) and SNDK both surged over 10%, defying broader market volatility as capital rotated back into the AI infrastructure trade. Morgan Stanley lifted Micron’s price target from $350 to $450, reiterating an Overweight rating, citing accelerating HBM4 capacity ramp as a key catalyst. SNDK’s rally reflects sustained momentum in storage and data demand, reinforcing the AI data center buildout narrative.
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