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04-05

Despite Trump claiming “victory” in the conflict with Iran, the situation remains far from resolved, with ongoing military activity, no confirmed ceasefire, and continued tensions in the region. His statements are widely seen as political messaging rather than a signal that the war has ended, as both sides are still capable of escalation and there is no clear agreement in place. As a result, the risk of the conflict “kicking back” or intensifying again remains high, which is why global markets are reacting cautiously rather than treating the situation as fully stabilised.

US-Iran Conflict | Would Hormuz Blockade Escalate Oil to $120?
After a 21-hour marathon negotiation, the U.S. and Iran moved from “disagreement” straight to a complete breakdown. President Trump announced a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has shattered all of the market’s pricing assumptions over the past week. If the U.S. blockade holds through April, will the Fed be forced into a "Hawkish Pivot" that resets Nasdaq valuations? In the clash between Trump’s "Execution Strategy" and Iran’s "Time-Wasting Strategy," who blinks first before the $120 threshold?
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