According to the latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the proliferation index of leading indicators has shown clear signs of bottoming out at the beginning of the year. This means that if we can temporarily remove the exogenous variable of war, the global economy would have been on track to re-accelerate.
This explains why the big Wall Street firms are sticking to their optimistic expectations of the S&P 500 in the face of the threat of a third world war.
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