Weekly Macro Outlook: Growth Strength vs. Rising Inflation Risks

Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report:

1. Global Growth: the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks).

2. Inflation Risk: expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices.

3. Treasuries: retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds).

4. EM Bonds: remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary of inflation risk and potential for EM central bank pivots back to rate hikes.

5. Energy: cautious but constructive on energy stocks given relative value, light positioning and investor skepticism, and promising potential use as a hedge against higher-for-longer energy prices.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Global Growth: </strong>the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. Inflation Risk:</strong> expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. Treasuries: </strong>retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. EM Bonds: </strong>remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary of inflation risk and potential for EM central bank pivots back to rate hikes.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>5. Energy:</strong> cautious but constructive on energy stocks given relative value, light positioning and investor skepticism, and promising potential use as a hedge against higher-for-longer energy prices.</p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here's the topics &amp; takeaways from my latest <strong>Weekly Macro Themes report</strong>:</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>1. Global Growth: </strong>the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. Inflation Risk:</strong> expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. Treasuries: </strong>retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. EM Bonds: </strong>remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary of inflation risk and potential for EM central bank pivots back to rate hikes.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>5. Energy:</strong> cautious but constructive on energy stocks given relative value, light positioning and investor skepticism, and promising potential use as a hedge against higher-for-longer energy prices.</p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Global Growth: the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks). 2. Inflation Risk: expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices. 3. Treasuries: retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds). 4. EM Bonds: remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary of inflation risk and potential for EM central bank pivots back to rate hikes. 5. Energy: cautious but constructive on energy stocks given relative value, light positioning and investor skepticism, and promising potential use as a hedge against higher-for-longer energy prices. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold! 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