This week’s COTW is… 2 Charts! First one shows Global ex-US Small Value (basically a combination of what have been the 3 most out of favor parts of global equities: global ex-US, small caps, and value stocks). The second one shows the other side of the coin — US Large Growth (what has been the hottest part of global equities). The chart on the left is looking very bullish after being messy, somewhat bearish, and certainly lagging behind for a number of years. The chart on the right is looking distinctly bearish after having been on a dream bull run since 2009. Then add in a little more context: global/small/value are ticking up from record low relative valuations vs US/large/growth — what I call the “relative value trinity“ of global equities. This is a classic change in stockmarket leader

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped -0.87% on the month in February. (yet the equal-weighted version gained +3.4% in Feb) (rotation remains a key theme) Value vs growth rotation has clear fundamental support. There are still some compelling causes for optimism. Overall, the rally in cyclicals/value is helping offset tech-troubles (aka bullish rotation), and there is clear compelling macro-fundamental support to rotation (along with the cooling-off from tech/AI hype). We’re probably seeing a classic case of overinvestment in capex on the AI front, but it’s not all bad news… 1. Happy New Month!  The S&P500 closed down -0.87% for February, placing it marginally up +0.5% YTD. The equal

80% of the world is in a Bull Market. Specifically, 80% of the 70 countries we track are up at least 20% off their 52-week low (with +20% being a common benchmark/trigger for “bull market“). This is a very positive sign. The below chart shows this peculiar breadth indicator over time (the red line), and what’s interesting is a few things… First, this indicator has rarely been above 50% over the past couple decades (yet, it was steadily north of 50% during the 2000’s global equity bull market). Second, when this indicator surges like this it is typically a very good sign — for instance, see: 2003, 2009, 2020 (the start of new global equity bull markets). Third, by contrast the time to be concerned is when this indicator peaks and rolls over (no signs of that at the moment). In essence, this

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bullish rotation remains in play. 2. Tech stocks still look troubled. 3. AI spillovers are helping (already bullish) commodities. 4. Newspaper stocks present a case-study in disruption. 5. Commodity stocks (as a group) look good. Overall, the US tech vs non-tech and US vs global bullish rotations remain in play, this is helping make the tech troubles less of an issue at the index level. There is a risk that gives way to broader downside if tech breaks down, so it’s worth keeping close tabs on tech (among other things…) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)

With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ —after going through what has been a major relative bear market. But in particular, the following conditions make for a contrarian bullish (relative) setup for Defensives: Defensives’ relative value indicator reached similar levels to that seen at the peak of the dot com bubble (Defensives are extreme cheap vs the index). Investor allocations to defensives are ticking up from record lows. The market cap weight of defensives reached an all-time low late last year. The relative price (black line i

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. Private equity stocks are also coming under pressure. Defensive stocks meanwhile are looking up. Overall, it’s fair to say that we are at a challenging juncture in markets. Tech stocks are coming under pressure, and from a starting point of major overvaluation and historically high allocations. So it’s worth keeping a closer eye on risk management and potential upside in defensives, while staying pragmatic with the otherwise still bullish outlook for cyclicals/global/commodities… Going it alone? as outlined the other day, the US tech sector remains under pressure, and

Learnings and conclusions from this session: US tech stocks have peaked (+rolled over vs US non-tech, global tech). Sentiment is slumping from previously extreme bullish/complacent. Positioning has also peaked, early signs of rotation showing up. Valuations are ticking down from extreme expensive levels. Stretched valuations reflect strong earnings (but that’s also a risk). Overall, tech stocks have peaked for now. The problem is they’re coming from a starting point of overvalued and overhyped. The benign/bullish outcome would be a plateau in tech and bullish rotation (into traditional cyclicals, global), while the bearish outcome would be outright downside (and rotation into defensives). This report looks at the evidence so far and weighs the next steps… 1. Tech Top (Absolute Terms): 

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Stocks closed up in January (equal-weight beat cap-weight). A positive January is a positive sign for the rest of the year. Seeing apparent rotation out of crypto into precious metals. Also seeing rotation from growth/tech to value/cyclicals. Signs are it’s a case of “bullish rotation” (broadening bull). Overall, we’ve managed to get off to a decent start to the year with the gains and bullish rotations of January. There are a few risk spots to keep tabs on (price action in crypto, tech/growth), but the relative strength in some of the more cyclical parts of the market raise the prospect of a bullish broadening… Happy New Month! the (market cap weighted) S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed up +

Is this the most hated asset class? The composite positioning indicator below seems to suggests so. Everyone hates bonds right now. And fair enough — there are several obvious reasons to hate them. Returns have been terrible, inflation risk is lurking around the corner, fiscal concerns are running high, and political/governance risk for the US is looking and feeling more like what you’d expect in emerging markets. But all of this is obvious and well known, which means it’s time to think. As the old Mark Twain quote goes, "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." When you take an objective and quantitative look at treasuries (I am referring to longer-term) a couple of things stand out. Valuations are cheap. Sentiment/allocations/positioning a

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bears have the statistical edge in mid-term election years. 2. The global equity bull market is going strong (+getting stronger). 3. Implied correlations are low (a risk signal, similar to dot-com). 4. High valuations are supported by high expectations on profitability. 5. Energy sector equities are undervalued, underallocated, underestimated. Overall, there’s a fair amount of risk signals waving (e.g. seasonal headwinds, correlations, surging sentiment, lofty expectations), but likewise strong momentum, bullish rotation, and compelling fundamental narratives carrying things along. And amongst all this there’s some very interesting opportunities developing… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading lim

First they said it was uninvestable.Then it broke out —but they said it was still in a downtrend.Now it’s broken that downtrend line.And there are still several reasons to expect further upside.Here’s why I’m bullish on Chinese stocks:Strong Technicals: as alluded to, we’ve seen 3 key breakouts (through the 200-day average, through long-term overhead resistance, and through the down trendline joining the last two major peaks).Stock/Bond Ratio: we’ve also seen a key breakout in an indicator almost no-one else watches; the Chinese stock/bond ratio (important risk-on signal).Cheap Valuations: Chinese stocks are reasonable vs history, cheap vs peers, and cheap vs bonds (very high equity risk premium).Macro Tailwinds: we’ve seen a steady drift lower in interest rates, incremental stimulus measu

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Sentiment is getting increasingly consensus bullish. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ & Credit Spreads are at complacent/confident levels.Transports, shipping stocks, EM, and metals are breaking out.Value is cheaper than usual vs history and vs growth stocks.Growth stocks are expensive vs history and vs value stocks.Overall, the mood remains distinctly bullish and increasingly so —and perhaps justifiably so as more evidence emerges in favor of a global growth reacceleration (and better performance from traditional cyclicals and risk-on assets). But with growth stocks already richly priced, and value still cheap, the next phase of the bull market might look a little unfamiliar to some…

1. Clues of catch-up: this chart shows how far the US has diverged from global equity valuations, but also the nascent catch-up trade clearly underway.2. Peak performance: this one shows US stock market outperformance peaking vs DM and EM. All good trends come to an end, and all good cycles do what cycles do.3. Stocks vs Bonds over the Long-run: the rolling 10-year total return premium for stocks over and above that of bonds looks stretched vs long-term average, and it looks late in the cycle (and it does look cyclical).4. The big reset in Commercial Real Estate: in real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough” (…downturn done?).5. Tech capex crowd-out: successive waves

Learnings and conclusions from this session:Technicals: EM is at a bullish inflection point.Valuation: EM equity valuations are still cheap.Positioning: investor allocations to EM are still historically low.Macro: EM earnings are breaking out +strong monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: some signs of complacency, increasingly bullish sentiment.Overall, there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that we are going through a major bullish inflection point for emerging market equities. The below set of charts looks at the key technical developments, macro-fundamentals, behavioral aspects, and weighs what could go right/wrong for EM equities from here…1. Emerging Inflection Point: an inflection point is underway in emerging market equities. Skeptics will say that it’s just another false dawn.

No that’s not a typo, we are literally seeing a new high in new highs.(47 countries just chalked up new highs)The chart below tracks the weekly count of the 70 countries we track that have closed at their highest point over the trailing 52-week window.The latest reading is the highest on record, and is comfortably higher than any reading we’ve seen in the post-2008 era.This is highly significant because the last time we got close to this number (46) was back during the early-2000’s global equity bull market where commodities were booming, emerging markets were making transformative progress, and global stocks were outperforming their US counterparts.So I would say this latest reading bodes particularly well for global vs US rotation.Indeed, probably the biggest development of 2025 was the

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 11 January 2026This week: breakouts, good starts, fun with fund flows, animal spirits, shorts, long-term trends, generational changes, market cap movements, and energy sector in focus...Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is getting off to a good start in 2026.Statistically, that bodes well for the rest of the year.Rotation out of cash and into stocks is ramping up.Animal spirits are stirring (seeing rotation into cyclicals).Energy stocks are unloved, undervalued, and underestimated.Overall, there are a number of very interesting dynamics playing out in macro and markets as we gear-up into 2026. Trend and momentum are positive overall, traditional cyclicals are picking

Now it’s time to stop looking backwards, and time to focus forward with a list of my top 10 charts to watch in 2026 (and beyond).These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now (or that are likely to come onto the radar soon...) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$