Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

US-Iran Deal Sends Dow to Record High: Bull Market Fully Back?

The Nasdaq QQQ surged 3.14% and the Dow Jones hit an all-time high, as a triple catalyst of U.S.-Iran deal, peace expectations, and SpaceX optimism drove broad risk-on buying. Semiconductors led — SOXL +16.12%, AMD +6.98%, Nebius +11.93% — completely erasing last week's epic deleveraging panic. Yet skeptics warn "the world thinks the war is over, but it isn't," and that "every concern about the AI trade is real, just not yet a catalyst." From crash to euphoria in a single week — will you go all-in, or keep some powder dry in case the mood turns?

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