EliteEquity
05-29

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

U.S. July CPI Hits All Estimates — Does September Rate Hike Pressure Really Ease?
July CPI landed exactly on consensus — all four prints. Headline 3.4% year-over-year and 0.1% monthly, core 2.5% and 0.2%, the slowest annual readings since March and February. Housing and food each added 0.1% monthly; energy fell 1.5%. September hike odds slipped to roughly 33%, the fourth step down in a week. S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%, gold +2.02% to $4,471. A print with no surprise in it still moved rates and metals — so what does the next leg run on?
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