Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Nonfarm Payrolls Add Only 29K — Is the Rate-Hike Cycle Over?

September payrolls grew 29,000 vs 89,000 expected, prior 133,000; unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. October hike odds fell from above 60% a week ago to under 25%. Stocks rose: Nasdaq hit a record 27,353.68, closing +1.19% at 27,190.86; QQQ +1.02% to $749.58; S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72; Dow +0.49% to 51,176.96. Bonds didn't follow: the 10-year added 4bp to 5.28%, highest since 2002; the UK 30-year gilt hit 6%. Hike risk is off the table, yet the long end rose anyway. How much does that worry you?

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