The 3.3% QQQ rebound catalyzed by strong Microsoft earnings and cooling June core PCE at 3.3% demonstrates that resilient fundamental AI revenue and solid tech balance sheets can snap losing streaks and provide a strong market floor. However, with market skepticism toward Fed policy remaining high until concrete rate cuts materialize, and August historically bringing seasonal light volume volatility, this rally is unlikely to be a smooth upward march. Investors should view this as an earnings driven relief bounce rather than a full structural regime shift, using short term strength to stay selective and keep dry powder ready for potential late summer pullbacks.

After several brutal sessions, global technology stocks finally staged a powerful rebound. The Nasdaq rose 2.8%, while Microsoft’s post-earnings surge helped lift AI chips, cloud stocks and data-center names across the board. The move became even more dramatic in Asia. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped sharply, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surging as investors rushed back into semiconductor names. Taiwan’s market also rebounded strongly, led by TSMC. At first glance, this looks like a classic V-shaped reversal. But the more important question is: Has the correction really ended, or is the market only beginning a longer U-shaped repair process? Why did the rebound happen so quickly? The first reason is earnings. Microsoft showed that AI spending can already translate into cloud revenue, p

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's resolute stance on price stability ("This Fed will not waver") and the removal of forward guidance sent a clear message to Wall Street: interest rates will stay higher for longer until inflation hits the 2% target. Because long-term bond yields spike under hawkish Fed messaging, growth-oriented assets like tech equities face immediate headwinds. 1. Will This Scenario Continue to Market-Haunt Tech? In the short term, yes. Tech stocks—especially high-multiple growth equities tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ —are uniquely sensitive to rising Treasury yields: Higher Discount Rates: Tech valuations rely heavily on discounted future cash flows. Higher yields increase the discount rate, naturally com

Apple and Amazon could become the market's next directional catalyst, but they are unlikely to erase macro concerns on their own. If Apple demonstrates stronger-than-expected iPhone demand, services growth and a credible AI roadmap, it could reinforce the view that high-quality cash generators deserve premium valuations. If Amazon delivers accelerating AWS growth with evidence that AI investment is boosting cloud demand rather than just costs, it would strengthen the case that hyperscaler capex is producing tangible returns. The bigger issue remains the Fed. A more hawkish stance raises the discount rate applied to future earnings, which disproportionately pressures richly valued AI names. Strong earnings can offset that only if they clearly show accelerating cash flow and profitability. S

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ up 7.70% after hours. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$, down 7.10%. Same evening, same underlying fact — both companies are spending unholy amounts of money on AI — and fifteen points of daylight between them. Read those two numbers alone and you'd conclude the market turned on AI capex. It didn't. It did something more annoying: it started sorting. Start with who flipped the switch. The July FOMC didn't move rates and didn't change a word of the guidance. Warsh spoke, and within thirty minutes the ten worst names on the tape were almost all AI. The S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 7,316.15, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.74%,

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Good move by @koolgal.

I lean towards continued volatility first, with a reasonable chance of a rebound later in the week rather than a clean breakout immediately. The macro set-up is unusually binary. The Fed is still expected by most economists to hold rates steady, but markets are assigning roughly a 25% probability of a hike at this week's meeting. That is significant. Lower oil prices following the US-Iran pause are helping, with Brent dropping sharply towards US$90, which reduces one source of inflation pressure.  The bigger issue for QQQ may actually be Big Tech rather than the Fed. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple report this week, after Alphabet and Tesla were punished heavily despite growth because investors disliked their enormous AI-related spending. The market has therefore changed its questio

$Smart NZ Top 10 ETF Units(TNZ.NZ)$ xoxo

Gold rose by more than 1% on Monday (27 July) morning, moving above US$4,100 after a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran helped ease concerns over oil-supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. As at 10am Singapore time, the $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ was approximately 1.4% higher. Against this backdrop, the $GLD US 5xLongSG280609(GLDW.SI)$ gained more than 7%, while the $GLD US 5xShortSG280609(GOSW.SI)$ declined by a similar magnitude. Silver also advanced, with the $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ rising approximately 2.6%, lifting the SLV 3x Long DLC up by about 8%, while the SLV 3x Short DLC fell by a similar m

Google’s Falling P/E Looks Cheap  But Cash Flow Tells a Different Story A dropping price-to-earnings ratio doesn’t automatically make a stock a bargain. In Alphabet’s case, a huge $98 billion non-cash investment gain inflated reported earnings, creating the illusion of a cheaper valuation. Dig deeper and the reality shows earnings that missed expectations, AI-driven spending that pushed free cash flow negative, and weaker cash generation than investors hoped for. This is classic accounting optics versus actual business performance. Non-cash gains can make the income statement look strong while the cash statement reveals the heavy lifting and capital burn happening behind the scenes. It’s likely a temporary distortion. Google’s core business still has real strengths. But moments like t

🌟🌟🌟The biggest takeaway for me from Ross Dong's Livestream Clip 4 is that while AI can efficiently handle 90% of investment research data processing, human expertise remains crucial for navigating risk and timing. Using $SK hynix(SKHY)$ upcoming earnings as a case study, Ross Dong said that investors should leverage AI for data extraction while reserving human judgement for market sentiment, geopolitical risk and execution. The message is clear: Embrace AI as a tool but own the execution.  Let AI handle the heavy information mining but use your own disciplined risk management framework to manage size, timing and capital preservation. @TBlive

US Q2 2026 Real GDP Growth Expectations & Stock Market Impacts 1. Core Timetable Advance GDP release: 8:30 AM ET, July 30 (Wed) Critical overlap: FOMC rate decision releases at 2 AM Beijing July 31, just hours after Q2 GDP print. GDP data will directly shape Powell’s hawkish/dovish tone in the press conference. Q1 2026 baseline: Real GDP SAAR = 2.1% (official final estimate) 2. Latest Consensus Forecasts (As of July 26, 2026) 1) Wall Street Blue Chip Consensus Market median forecast: 1.8%–2.2% annualized real GDP growth Bullish banks (GS, Huatai): 2.5%–3.3% (AI capex strong driver) Base case majority (BofA, CBO, Philly Fed SPF): 2.0%–2.2% Bearish institutions: 1.5%–1.8% (weakening consumer spending drag) 2) Atlanta Fed GDPNow Real-Time Nowcast (July 17, latest update) 1.7% SAAR (sharp

Always be buying Automation: Setting up recurring transfers to purchase assets on a fixed schedule (e.g., weekly or monthly).Dollar-Cost Averaging: Buying fewer shares when prices are high and more shares when prices are low.Asset Focus: Typically applied to broad-market index funds, ETFs, or high-conviction blue-chip assets.Psychological Shield: Removing emotional decision-making, panic selling, and the urge to time the market.