The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and

QQQ rose while three large platforms declined The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.11 per cent on Monday, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ rose 0.71 per cent. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 0.97 per cent, $Apple(AAPL)$ lost 1.10 per cent and Meta declined 1.88 per cent in the same session. The indices closed higher, but this was not a rally driven by all the large platforms together. Semiconductors and higher-beta growth shares were stronger. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rose 5.21 pe

The market: technology shares await earnings and the Federal Reserve The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ slipped 0.01 per cent to US$704.40 on Friday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.52 per cent to US$759.97. After the previous session's sharp technology sell-off, the indices did not immediately choose a new direction. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and several storage companies report between Wednesday and Thursday, while the Federal Reserve decision is due at 2am Beijing time on 29 October. Earnings, cash flow and interest rates will all reset the value assigned to AI assets within a narrow window. The prevailing expectation is for the Federal Reserve to keep its 3.75 per cent

The market: technology shares, oil and Treasuries pointed in three directions The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.60 per cent to 26,009 on Thursday, the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lost 2.86 per cent to US$704.47, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 1.21 per cent to 7,663.43. Technology carried most of the damage: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 6.98 per cent, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 4.40 per cent, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 8.10 per cent,

The market: AI shares rose first, then earnings moved the question from demand to returns The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 1.05 per cent to US$725.20 on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.58 per cent to 7,757.17. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ gained 7.79 per cent, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ 9.55 per cent, N $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 2.54 per cent and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 3.36 per cent. These were regular-session moves before Meta and Tesla repor

The indices: Dow up, Nasdaq flat, a split that maps onto earnings week The three indices diverged on Tuesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 1.02 per cent to 52,495.88; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent to 7,712.57; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ was nearly unchanged, closing down 0.02 per cent at 26,424.82. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.12 per cent. The Dow–Nasdaq split tracks the shape of this week's reporting calendar: technology names started spreading risk before the numbers are in, some moving forward, some pulling back. Memory: the CXMT overhang still has not cleared

The market: Amazon led as QQQ rebounded faster than SPY $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ rose 1.21 per cent to US$718.36 on Monday, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ gained 0.42 per cent to US$766.48, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ added 0.41 per cent to 7,690.73. Amazon rose 4.98 per cent, lifting technology and the data-centre supply chain and giving the Nasdaq-100 its best performance in almost a month. The advance went beyond one large-cap rebound. Money spread from Amazon into memory, semiconductors and networking equipment, showing that Friday's selling had cooled. The questions around rates and investment returns remain. Result

The market: QQQ and SPY fell as Warsh gave no answer on October rates $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 2.50 per cent to US$709.80 on Friday and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ fell 1.11 per cent to US$763.25. Headline CPI was 3.7 per cent from a year earlier in September, above the market's 3.6 per cent expectation and the prior 3.4 per cent reading. PPI reached 6.3 per cent, above the 5.5 per cent expected and the revised prior 5.6 per cent. Consecutive upside inflation surprises forced highly valued technology to absorb the rate repricing first. Fed chair Kevin Warsh did not prejudge the meeting on 27–28 October. He reiterated the commitment to price stability while describing AI

The market: hotter producer prices moved money out of technology and into value sectors $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ rose 0.28 per cent to US$771.79 on Thursday, while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 0.13 per cent to US$728.00. September PPI increased 1.3 per cent from the previous month, above the market's 0.6 per cent expectation and faster than August's 0.4 per cent rise. Wholesale inflation reached 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, with energy prices the main driver. Renewed upstream price pressure reduced expectations for rate cuts and highly valued technology shares. The broad market did not fall with technology because money moved towards financials, consumer companies an

The market: inflation returned as AI hardware faced both rate and earnings pressure The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 1.11 per cent to 7,718.94 on Wednesday, while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lost 1.97 per cent to close at US$728.95. Headline CPI rose 3.7 per cent from a year earlier in September, above the market's 3.6 per cent expectation and August's 3.4 per cent reading. The return of inflation pushed rate expectations higher, and technology fell substantially more than the broader market. As rate expectations move higher, the present value of future earnings falls; the more a share price depends on growth further into the future, the greater the valuation pressure. AI hardware also f

The indices: barely moved, but chips and memory went in opposite directions The three indices were nearly flat on Tuesday: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.02 per cent to 7,805.45; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.15 per cent to 27,204.38; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.35 per cent to 51,670.10. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.24 per cent to 5.22 per cent. The compute chips that had been falling since last Thursday bounced: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose 0.97 per cent to US$228.52 and AMD rose 1.90 per cent to US$605.53, with the specific AMD driver in the next sect

The indices: the Dow outran the Nasdaq for the third session in a row All three indices split again on Monday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.38 per cent to 51,850.55; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.06 per cent to 7,807.24, essentially flat; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.44 per cent to 27,245.90. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at 5.24 per cent, unchanged from Friday. Monday was the third consecutive session in which the Dow outperformed the Nasdaq. Nvidia fell 1.29 per cent to US$226.32 and AMD fell 2.28 per cent to US$594.24, extending the declines that began last Thursday on the OpenAI revenue report. Memory st

The indices: the Dow led all three higher, with healthcare and real estate doing the work All three indices rose on Friday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ gained 0.83 per cent to 51,654.95; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.59 per cent to 7,811.54; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ added 0.64 per cent to 27,366.17. The 10-year Treasury yield nudged one basis point higher, from 5.23 per cent to 5.24 per cent. The session's leaders were real estate, up 1.85 per cent, and healthcare, up 1.48 per cent — not the technology and compute names that have been carrying recent moves. Thursday's OpenAI revenue worries dissipated, but what filled th

The indices: the selling stayed inside technology, so the Nasdaq fell while the Dow closed higher The three indices split on Thursday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.25 per cent to 27,193.34, the steepest of them; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.47 per cent to 7,765.36; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.10 per cent to 51,231.60. The 10-year Treasury yield came back from 5.28 per cent to 5.23 per cent on the same day. Rates fell and equities fell with them, which is not the chain of cause and effect of recent days: what was repriced was the assumption about demand along the AI chain, and the discount rate had nothing to d

The indices: all three fell back from record closes, and the Dow lost 0.66 per cent The three indices moved back from the previous day's record closes on Wednesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Average fell 0.66 per cent to 51,179.90, the largest decline; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.22 per cent to 7,801.77; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 0.22 per cent to 27,538.69. The pressure came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36 per cent at its intraday peak and closed at 5.28 per cent, while the 30-year touched 5.73 per cent and closed at 5.66 per cent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Septemb

The indices: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both set record closes and the 10-year came back to 5.27 per cent The three indices pushed higher again on Tuesday: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.58 per cent to 7,818.93, closing above 7,800 for the first time and at a record close, having reached 7,844.52 at its intraday peak; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 0.45 per cent to 27,599.89, also a record close; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$Average added 0.49 per cent to 51,521.28. The 10-year Treasury yield came back to 5.27 per cent from 5.31 per cent the day before. Last week's pattern, where weak data lifted equities, has

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu

The indices: a weak jobs report, and all three still closed higher All three indices closed higher on Friday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.19 per cent to 27,190.86, having reached 27,353.68 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.49 per cent to 51,176.96. The September employment report came out that morning: non-farm payrolls added 29,000, where the market had looked for somewhere between 85,000 and 90,000, and the unemployment rate went from 4.1 per cent in August to 4.2 per cent, where a flat reading had been expected. The previous tw

The indices: three directions the day before, one direction now All three indices closed lower on Wednesday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 1.13 per cent to 26,936.04, down 308.24 points on the day, giving back the record it had set in the previous session; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.75 per cent to 7,706.03, down 58.61 points; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.68 per cent to 51,511.59, down 352.10 points. The previous session had the three running separately — the Nasdaq closing at a record, the Dow lower, the S&P 500 finishing flat to within 0.06 points. A day later they were back on the same heading, a