Cadi Poon
06-05 10:11
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 8000 by year-end (about +6% from now), riding on earnings resilience with expected EPS growth of 24%

2026 is a big IPO year: US IPO fundraising is projected to hit a record $225 billion, far above the previous high of about $115 billion in 2021. But demand outweighs supply — corporate buybacks alone total $1.3 trillion, overwhelming the $1.1 trillion of issuance + lockup-expiry supply (though Goldman warns that supply-demand will tighten in 2027)

Market Crashes, Price in Rate Hikes? When to Start Picking up Chips?
US chip companies lost roughly $1.3 trillion in market cap in one day. The crash is essentially "crowded AI hardware trade + interest rate repricing + overstretched semiconductor expectations." Friday's non-farm payrolls delivered another blow: 172,000 new jobs added in May, clearly beating expectations, unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, hourly wages up 3.4%yoy. Rate-cut expectations back down. On top of this, the SpaceX IPO will siphon off hundreds of billions in liquidity. With this crash, will you panic and head for the exit, or treat it as a chance to get on board?
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