US-Iran De-escalation: How Assets May React

After progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:

Oil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.

The key chain:

Geopolitical risk falls

→ Oil falls

→ Inflation pressure eases

→ Bond pressure declines

→ Risk appetite improves

But asset relationships are not fixed.

If talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.

Same event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.

Disclaimer

For information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Nonfarm Payrolls Add Only 29K — Is the Rate-Hike Cycle Over?

September payrolls grew 29,000 vs 89,000 expected, prior 133,000; unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. October hike odds fell from above 60% a week ago to under 25%. Stocks rose: Nasdaq hit a record 27,353.68, closing +1.19% at 27,190.86; QQQ +1.02% to $749.58; S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72; Dow +0.49% to 51,176.96. Bonds didn't follow: the 10-year added 4bp to 5.28%, highest since 2002; the UK 30-year gilt hit 6%. Hike risk is off the table, yet the long end rose anyway. How much does that worry you?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

PageDickens
06-15
PageDickens
BTC usually reacts faster than gold here tbh — if oil stays soft, does IBIT keep the lead?
CHINNY168
06-16
CHINNY168
Done

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October hike odds fell from above 60% a week ago to under 25%. Stocks rose: Nasdaq hit a record 27,353.68, closing +1.19% at 27,190.86; QQQ +1.02% to $749.58; S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72; Dow +0.49% to 51,176.96. Bonds didn't follow: the 10-year added 4bp to 5.28%, highest since 2002; the UK 30-year gilt hit 6%. Hike risk is off the table, yet the long end rose anyway. How much does that worry you?\n\n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bbdce0c3859b57aa6bde24d88d8f427"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606","width":"1080","height":"6800"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606","width":"1080","height":"6800"}],"title":"US-Iran De-escalation: How Assets May React","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IBIT\">$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\nAfter progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:\nOil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.\nThe key chain:\nGeopolitical risk falls\n→ Oil falls\n→ Inflation pressure eases\n→ Bond pressure declines\n→ Risk appetite improves\nBut asset relationships are not fixed.\nIf talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.\nSame event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.\nDisclaimer\nFor information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"6800\">\n\n </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IBIT\">$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GLD\">$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\nAfter progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief:\nOil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled.\nThe key chain:\nGeopolitical risk falls\n→ Oil falls\n→ Inflation pressure eases\n→ Bond pressure declines\n→ Risk appetite improves\nBut asset relationships are not fixed.\nIf talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure.\nSame event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction.\nDisclaimer\nFor information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4316b4ce91c04e877b0ef099500606\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"6800\">\n\n </body></html>","text":"$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ After progress in U.S.-Iran talks, markets moved into risk-on relief: Oil fell, stock futures rose, inflation concerns eased, and safe-haven demand cooled. The key chain: Geopolitical risk falls → Oil falls → Inflation pressure eases → Bond pressure declines → Risk appetite improves But asset relationships are not fixed. If talks reverse, oil and gold may regain strength, while stocks and BTC may face pressure. Same event, different dominant driver, different asset reaction. Disclaimer For information, research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. 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